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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Vesper33
Silver Pools of Light

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11/24/2012 12:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's new CME looks like a doozy for the 26th of November!

NASA Prediction:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


My brother's birthday, how apropos, take it it way Michael .... love and miss you.
 Quoting: TS66


It is also my son Nick's 20th birthday. Got to love those Sags'. :)
Perfer et Obdura;Dolor hic tibi proderit olim.Fortes Fortuna Iuvat! (Be Patient & Strong; someday this pain will be useful to you. Fortune favors the brave)
mtn_mang

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11/24/2012 08:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning! :)
mtn_mang

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11/24/2012 08:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's new CME looks like a doozy for the 26th of November!

NASA Prediction:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


My brother's birthday, how apropos, take it it way Michael .... love and miss you.
 Quoting: TS66


It is also my son Nick's 20th birthday. Got to love those Sags'. :)
 Quoting: Vesper33


26th is my b-day, too
banana2
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11/24/2012 08:58 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Trailing edge of 1618 still has some life in her !!

:1618:
Luisport

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11/24/2012 08:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi everyone! Another CME arriving? [link to www.n3kl.org]
shenue

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11/24/2012 09:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning SunPeeps. Looking forward to another action packed day here. (within reason) :-)
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Dark Star Frenzy

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11/24/2012 09:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Tink! Where is my news?! lmfao :D
Black sheep has no place.
Until you find the Most High.
See inner-standing.
Tiny Trink

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11/24/2012 09:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Tink! Where is my news?! lmfao :D
 Quoting: Dark Star Frenzy



Hello Everyone & DSF,

Sorry for the delay this morning. Had a bit of a issue getting on this morning. All better now.

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,



[link to www.youtube.com]





Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
mtn_mang

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11/24/2012 09:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Tink! Where is my news?! lmfao :D
 Quoting: Dark Star Frenzy


here ya go

[link to youtu.be]

i can never embed vids, don't know why

edit: you beat me, double T! thanks for the embed

Last Edited by mtn_mang on 11/24/2012 09:12 AM
Tiny Trink

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11/24/2012 09:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Tink! Where is my news?! lmfao :D
 Quoting: Dark Star Frenzy


here ya go

[link to youtu.be]

i can never embed vids, don't know why

edit: you beat me, double T! thanks for the embed
 Quoting: mtn_mang



hf
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 09:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Today's new CME looks like a doozy for the 26th of November!

NASA Prediction:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


My brother's birthday, how apropos, take it it way Michael .... love and miss you.
 Quoting: TS66


It is also my son Nick's 20th birthday. Got to love those Sags'. :)
 Quoting: Vesper33


My brother's nickname was Nick, short for Nicholson. Very cool. Warm wishes for your son.

If I don't remember on the 26th Happy Birthday MNT MANG. hf
mtn_mang

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11/24/2012 09:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thank you, TS hf
Dark Star Frenzy

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11/24/2012 09:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ahhh

That tsunami was intense, never seen that before! So wicked...


Thanks! ;]
Black sheep has no place.
Until you find the Most High.
See inner-standing.
Luisport

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Portugal
11/24/2012 09:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and we just hace a c flare too... [link to www.n3kl.org]
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 09:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and we just hace a c flare too... [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


That'sthe one I was referring to as the trailing edge of 1618. Smilie hasn't been approved yet verysad
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 09:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Trailing edge of 1618 still has some life in her !!

:1618:
 Quoting: TS66


and we just hace a c flare too... [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


That'sthe one I was referring to as the trailing edge of 1618. Smilie hasn't been approved yet verysad
 Quoting: TS66


Here it is.... finally !
Luisport

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11/24/2012 09:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and we just hace a c flare too... [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


That'sthe one I was referring to as the trailing edge of 1618. Smilie hasn't been approved yet verysad
 Quoting: TS66


sorry i doesn't see your post...
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 09:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and we just hace a c flare too... [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


That'sthe one I was referring to as the trailing edge of 1618. Smilie hasn't been approved yet verysad
 Quoting: TS66


sorry i doesn't see your post...
 Quoting: Luisport


I may have to rethink that however lmsal is saying 1615 ... ???
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 09:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No it's definitely 1618 sorry lmsal ...

[link to helioviewer.org]
Hugh M Eye

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11/24/2012 10:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There was a radio emission from that last C3 flare. We may have another CME to look out for>

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

hiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 10:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So... This is why my heart was acting crazy last night and today. And some people doesn't feel anything at all.
Hugh M Eye

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11/24/2012 10:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
All in all, a very weak impact from the CMEs. The Bz was South for a bit but changed to North around 08:00z. Density in the first wave peaked at near 35 p/cu.cm. In the past several hours the density went up to near 50p/cu.cm., but Bz has remained North.

ACE Solar Wind data plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO Solar Wind data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

We could still experience storm levels if the Bz flips South again. With the large number of CMEs out there, I would expect unsettled conditions possible for the next few days.

Geomagnetic Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

For noobies, here's a great, concise history and explanation of the K, Kp, and A indices from Lief Svalgaard's site:

[link to www.leif.org]

Before the Bz went North, I captured this aurora-cam shot from Alaska (via NICT)-NICT, Japan : [link to slamon.nict.go.jp]

:aurora11/24:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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11/24/2012 11:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How is it that the sun can time its CMEs almost to the minute that STEREO shuts down for the day? There was definitely a CME from the C3.3 flare and probably a big one. Here's the Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of the flare. The ejecta and shockwave makes it appear more powerful than C3.3 to my eyes.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The very first flash of the CME can be seen Earth-side in this last STEREO A image. One of these days the one we never see is gonna slam us good.

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

explosionahhhabombdynamite
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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11/24/2012 11:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]



[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 11:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
Hugh M Eye

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11/24/2012 12:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There was a radio emission from that last C3 flare. We may have another CME to look out for>

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
 Quoting: TS66


Beat ya, hahaha. Just to make me a liar, STEREO has updated for an extra hour today...latest image shows that suspected CME to be a small dud. Oh, well, let's wait for SOHO's 12 missing hours....

STEREO A image of small cme:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SIDC Comments:


COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, C-class flares are expected and
NOAA AR 1618 remains capable of producing M-Class flares. A long
filament in the south east of the solar disc erupted on November 23,
producing a CME with a component in the direction of the Earth
, seen
first at 13:54 UT by COR2 on STEREO Ahead and at 14:10 UT on STEREO-B
with a calculated speed of 533 km/s. An arrival and corresponding
geomagnetic storm at Earth can be expected late on November 26. A halo
CME was seen at 23:36 UT on November 23 by LASCO/C2, but this event is
backsided and will not affect the Earth. The CME from November 20
arrived to the Earth with a shock at 21:22 UT on November 23 (with speed
around 400 km/s and magnetic field magnitude of 15 nT) and produced so
far two periods of Kp=4 and three of KDourbes=4 starting at 21:00 UT.
Later today, the arrival of the CME from November 21 is expected, active
to minor storm levels (with possible isolated major storm levels) can be
expected.

[link to sidc.oma.be]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 12:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There was a radio emission from that last C3 flare. We may have another CME to look out for>

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 832
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 24 1428 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 Nov 24 1335 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 685 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.
 Quoting: TS66


Beat ya, hahaha. Just to make me a liar, STEREO has updated for an extra hour today...latest image shows that suspected CME to be a small dud. Oh, well, let's wait for SOHO's 12 missing hours....

STEREO A image of small cme:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SIDC Comments:


COMMENT: Solar activity has been low, C-class flares are expected and
NOAA AR 1618 remains capable of producing M-Class flares. A long
filament in the south east of the solar disc erupted on November 23,
producing a CME with a component in the direction of the Earth
, seen
first at 13:54 UT by COR2 on STEREO Ahead and at 14:10 UT on STEREO-B
with a calculated speed of 533 km/s. An arrival and corresponding
geomagnetic storm at Earth can be expected late on November 26. A halo
CME was seen at 23:36 UT on November 23 by LASCO/C2, but this event is
backsided and will not affect the Earth. The CME from November 20
arrived to the Earth with a shock at 21:22 UT on November 23 (with speed
around 400 km/s and magnetic field magnitude of 15 nT) and produced so
far two periods of Kp=4 and three of KDourbes=4 starting at 21:00 UT.
Later today, the arrival of the CME from November 21 is expected, active
to minor storm levels (with possible isolated major storm levels) can be
expected.

[link to sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


tounge
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 02:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It's like waiting for water to boil today !!!!

gaah
Isis One

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11/24/2012 04:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Where is SS 1615? Around the western limb going toward the backs? So the C3 was not geoeffective?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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11/24/2012 04:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know why lmsal said it was 1615, it was 1618. Take a look at the helioviewer I made earlier.


No it's definitely 1618 sorry lmsal ...

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: TS66


Where is SS 1615? Around the western limb going toward the backs? So the C3 was not geoeffective?
 Quoting: Isis One