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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shenue

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11/25/2012 10:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Isis....Mia thank you both for responding to my question. Heading to bed now and am going to look intok your answers tomorrow. Again, thanks!


Good night all.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shadasonic

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11/25/2012 10:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

I think 1618 is going to rebound and give us a farewell shot in the next few days.1620 looks to have a perfect current to fire at anytime,arcing is complete,may be a demon by tommorrow
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/25/2012 11:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

looks like partial filament liftoff below 1620

note: maybe full liftoff,checking other sites

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/25/2012 11:46 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs

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11/25/2012 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like we have have arrival of round #2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


===============

Space Weather Message Code: WARSUD
Serial Number: 123
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 26 0453 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 26 0510 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 26 0550 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2012 Nov 26 0437 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

==============

Last Edited by madajs on 11/26/2012 12:02 AM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Isis One

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11/25/2012 11:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like we have have arrival of round #2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Yep, looks like its on an uptick.

[link to www.theusner.eu]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
shadasonic

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11/25/2012 11:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like we have have arrival of round #2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Yep, looks like its on an uptick.

[link to www.theusner.eu]
 Quoting: Isis One



did you see the filament liftoff, looks to be geo effective and quite large.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Energy increase below 1620(circle pattern), could be liftoff, gotta wait a bit
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/26/2012 12:00 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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11/26/2012 12:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like we have have arrival of round #2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Yep, looks like its on an uptick.

[link to www.theusner.eu]
 Quoting: Isis One



did you see the filament liftoff, looks to be geo effective and quite large.

Wooohhh, would love to see that from the side as opposed to face on.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Energy increase below 1620(circle pattern), could be liftoff, gotta wait a bit
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: shadasonic


Woooh, wouldn't you love to see that from the side instead of face on???

Last Edited by Isis One on 11/26/2012 12:10 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 12:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like we have have arrival of round #2

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Yep, looks like its on an uptick.

[link to www.theusner.eu]
 Quoting: Isis One



did you see the filament liftoff, looks to be geo effective and quite large.

Wooohhh, would love to see that from the side as opposed to face on.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Energy increase below 1620(circle pattern), could be liftoff, gotta wait a bit
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: shadasonic


Woooh, wouldn't you love to see that from the side instead of face on???
 Quoting: Isis One


That was a nice plasmatic ribbon, if it did lift it looks like we'll see a good portion of it. Although I've seen them leave directly earth facing and head south.This looking at H alpha shot straight out.
The big one in the south looks nervous, hopefully currents leave it be!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 12:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

There it is , full discharge,big filament liftoff. We wait and see, but that has to almost be dead on!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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11/26/2012 12:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This one:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 165
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 26 0530 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Nov 26 0514 UTC
Deviation: 8 nT
Station: Boulder

and this one:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2034
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 26 0511 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 26 0520 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

here is the link: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 12:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This one:
Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 165
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 26 0530 UTC
SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Nov 26 0514 UTC
Deviation: 8 nT
Station: Boulder

and this one:
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2034
Issue Time: 2012 Nov 26 0511 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2012 Nov 26 0520 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Nov 26 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

here is the link: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
cool2
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks Joinca. Things are going to pick up quickly!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
SwampRatLost

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11/26/2012 01:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not sure what is going on, but my over air TV signal that seems to be easily affected by solar storms, went completely out about an hour ago.

The weirdest thing is typically just a few of the weaker stations will pixelate and go out for a few seconds... but they ALL went out, and are still out but one.
"And have no fellowship with the unfruitful works of darkness, but rather EXPOSE them" - Eph. 5:11
Isis One

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11/26/2012 01:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

There it is , full discharge,big filament liftoff. We wait and see, but that has to almost be dead on!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Beautiful, and where'd that CH come from???? Another interesting solar week friends! YAH!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Isis One

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11/26/2012 01:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not sure what is going on, but my over air TV signal that seems to be easily affected by solar storms, went completely out about an hour ago.

The weirdest thing is typically just a few of the weaker stations will pixelate and go out for a few seconds... but they ALL went out, and are still out but one.
 Quoting: SwampRatLost


Not sure but solar wind just made a quick leap up and so maybe some charged particles are getting through the magnetosphere.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This shows some absortion happening also

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 11/26/2012 01:50 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 01:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cosmic Journeys : Attack of the Sun
[link to www.youtube.com]
Isis One

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11/26/2012 02:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cosmic Journeys : Attack of the Sun
[link to www.youtube.com]

 Quoting: SeaPunk


Very good video SeaPunk, thanks for posting,
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Tiny Trink

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11/26/2012 07:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

Great Job night crew.

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,


[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 07:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

that filament may be taking its time lifting , it was gone ,back, and now flapping off again.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 08:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

The eye of Sauron is upon us!lol
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Luisport

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11/26/2012 08:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

The eye of Sauron is upon us!lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


uhohuhohuhoh
shenue

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11/26/2012 08:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Luisport

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11/26/2012 08:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
 Quoting: shenue


me too
aether

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11/26/2012 08:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wrong thread

sorry rex

Last Edited by aether on 11/26/2012 08:30 AM
Tropicalgirl

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11/26/2012 09:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone, we are on the road, day 4 of driving from FL to CA and watching all the updates. Thanks for vital information, as always!
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1620 still growing and has fired off at least 8 C-flares. 50% chance of M-flares today.

SIDC Daily Report-

COMMENT: Five sunspot groups were reported today by Catania. Two of
them are expected to produce flaring activity: Catania sunspot groups 27
(NOAA AR 1618) and 31 (NOAA AR 1620) have beta-gamma-delta and
beta-gamma configurations of their photospheric magnetic field,
respectively. Strong magnetic flux emergence that takes place in the
Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620) since yesterday noon will
probably lead to an M-class flare.
In any case, C-class flares are
almost certain as the background X-ray flux is now very close to the C1
level. A proton event is possible in case of a strong flare in Catania
sunspot group 27 or 31 (NOAA ARs 1618 or 1620) due to their position in
the western solar hemisphere
. A possibly Earth-directed CME was detected
this morning originating from the filament channel right to the south of
Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620). It was not a halo CME according
to the SOHO/LASCO data, and STEREO A SECCHI/COR2 data indicate a low
speed of this CME (around 300 km/s), so we expect at most a shock
arrival at the Earth without any significant geomagnetic disturbance as
a result. The Earth is currently in the sheath flow after the shock
arrival this morning detected at 04:38 UT by ACE and at 04:32 UT by
SOHO/CELIAS. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude in the
sheath flow decreased from moderately high values (around 10 nT) to the
current values around 7-8 nT, and the IMF is directed predominantly
northward, so the geomagnetic conditions stayed on the quiet to
unsettled level up to now. We do not expect the arrival of the ICME
driver of the shock, so the geomagnetic activity will stay at the quiet
to unsettled level in the coming hours.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

The slow CME mentioned above seen on STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i cant wait till December,i cant wait,i ahve waited for years and now the change is less than 5 weeks away



yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee






cool2
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 11:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i cant wait till December,i cant wait,i ahve waited for years and now the change is less than 5 weeks away



yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee






cool2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 831183


Careful what you wish for. hf
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 24287942
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11/26/2012 11:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So far 1620 has produced only small C-flares, but lots of 'em. The strongest being the C2.3 we just had.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]

[link to www.lmsal.com]

AR1620-Bigger>
:1620bigger:

AR1620-Stronger>
:1620mag:
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 11:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/26/2012 11:22 AM
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 11:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ok Hugh, this is what I have been wondering myself (but haven't asked).

The CME arrive as scheduled, our magnetosphere handled it aptly, ergo no solar storm / geo-effective impact.

Doesn't mean it didn't happen ( some are even saying disappeared ??), just that we did not see the effects here on Earth (other than a few blips here and there), because our magnetosphere prevent penetration, yes ???

After all these were not HUGE events.


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