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SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)

 
miabelieves

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11/26/2012 12:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
Hold on to your undies, it's gonna be a hell of a ride
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ok Hugh, this is what I have been wondering myself (but haven't asked).

The CME arrive as scheduled, our magnetosphere handled it aptly, ergo no solar storm / geo-effective impact.

Doesn't mean it didn't happen ( some are even saying disappeared ??), just that we did not see the effects here on Earth (other than a few blips here and there), because our magnetosphere prevent penetration, yes ???

After all these were not HUGE events.
 Quoting: TS66


Howdy, TS66! You're correct about these not being huge CMEs, but we have seen modest-sized filament eruptions produce G2 or G3 storms on occasion. I anticipated a bigger effect from the quantity of several CMEs. Sometimes we see a magnified effect from cannibalism; but perhaps there's a "field-cancelling effect" possible. I don't know. Most likely it comes down to the polarity of the Bz component. How many times has NOAA predicted a glancing blow and we got a strong disturbance when the Bz turned south.

This next CME is from the large SE filament eruption. There must be some reason for NASA to expect 23-hr disturbance, when they usually call for a 8-12 hr. Is this because of the slow speed? I doubt it because most of the recent CMEs had slow speeds. Or does NASA have a better idea than we do about the POLARITIES of what's coming in. We can only watch and see what happens tonight, if anything.
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 12:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves


Same here Mia,howdy!
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 01:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
if you read through this thread I think the site has been attacked.. [link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

It turns out he's actually an expert java developer...

Who knew?

And here I thought he had no skills...

Well looks like the game is a foot little man :)

Enjoy the ride!

I wonder what the "Juriy" will think?

Hope your immigration papers are in order...

damned
 Quoting: ^TrInItY^






Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
 Quoting: shenue


me too
 Quoting: Luisport


Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves
Luisport

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Portugal
11/26/2012 01:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thread: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
madajs

User ID: 24791599
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11/26/2012 01:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TS66! You're correct about these not being huge CMEs, but we have seen modest-sized filament eruptions produce G2 or G3 storms on occasion. I anticipated a bigger effect from the quantity of several CMEs. Sometimes we see a magnified effect from cannibalism; but perhaps there's a "field-cancelling effect" possible. I don't know. Most likely it comes down to the polarity of the Bz component. How many times has NOAA predicted a glancing blow and we got a strong disturbance when the Bz turned south.

This next CME is from the large SE filament eruption. There must be some reason for NASA to expect 23-hr disturbance, when they usually call for a 8-12 hr. Is this because of the slow speed? I doubt it because most of the recent CMEs had slow speeds. Or does NASA have a better idea than we do about the POLARITIES of what's coming in. We can only watch and see what happens tonight, if anything.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Yeah I agree, a lot of this just came down to milquetoast magnetism of the incoming. We got up to Kp 5- and then with the Bt staying high (around 15 nT) the Bz suddenly switched to firmly positive levels, abruptly relieving the magnetosphere. Lately it seems we've been hit by a lot of negative polarity events, I'd almost come to assume that this series of incoming would follow suit.

Well let's look to the next event! :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shenue

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11/26/2012 01:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves


Same here Mia,howdy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Same with me....mainly in the mornings. eastern time

Last Edited by shenue on 11/26/2012 02:08 PM
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Luisport

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11/26/2012 02:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)


My friends this can be by lower sun activity?
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Honestly, I thought we'd see a lot more weeks like this one in March. Check out this timeline from March 2012-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That was from Behemoth SS AR1429-

ss1429HMI
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 28240669
United Kingdom
11/26/2012 02:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


peace brothers and sisters,
love to all,

Hpokiehf
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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11/26/2012 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 03:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
hi Nin .... haven't heard "Behemoth" in a while ...
MissionInvisible

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11/26/2012 03:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


peace brothers and sisters,
love to all,

Hpokiehf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28240669


nice find on the wikilink! I have a feeling this one might be intense...
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet...Celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"

Neil deGrasse Tyson



"We were told that the changes in our world would become the catalyst for ones within us..."
Fractal Time, Gregg Braden
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 03:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.msnbc.msn.com]

want to colonize mars,you need $500,000.
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 03:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

Looks like the CH is developing.

Howdy Nin!
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Isis One

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11/26/2012 03:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
and........another C and another C and another C and another C..........lol
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Luisport

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Portugal
11/26/2012 04:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
and........another C and another C and another C and another C..........lol
 Quoting: Isis One


lolsign
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 04:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hi NiN...so good to 'see' you again!
Isis One

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11/26/2012 04:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


peace brothers and sisters,
love to all,

Hpokiehf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28240669


Hi Hpokie, thanks for the reference, interesting!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
whiteangel

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11/26/2012 04:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.

--Abraham Lincoln
whiteangel

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11/26/2012 04:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Honestly, I thought we'd see a lot more weeks like this one in March. Check out this timeline from March 2012-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That was from Behemoth SS AR1429-

ss1429HMI
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Now that was fun times!!
I can see how it might be possible for a man to look down upon the earth and be an atheist, but I cannot conceive how a man could look up into the heavens and say there is no God.

--Abraham Lincoln
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 04:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28240669


space weather uses that word Behemoth alot here are just a few times..

TRIPLE SUNSPOT: Sunspot 1504, the source of many auroras on June 16th and 17th, is decaying. Nevertheless, the behemoth is still an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. Amateur astronomer François Emond sends this picture from Chorges in the French Alps:
[link to www.spaceweather.com]



BIG SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years, AR1520, is turning toward Earth. Christian Viladrich of Nattages, France, photographed the behemoth on July 7th:
[link to spaceweather.com]


Sunspot 1131 is big, but quiet. The behemoth spot has a simple, stable magnetic field that poses little threat for a major eruption. At the moment it is producing more pretty pictures than solar flares. Browse the links, below, for examples.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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11/26/2012 06:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


She's crackling away!!!
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

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11/26/2012 06:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Whoohoo glad to see youhf
Job 37:13
He causes it to come,
Whether for correction,
Or for His land,
Or for mercy.(Read all of 37)
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 07:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
What's going on now? The ACE Protons and Electrons are goin' CRAZY! Anyone know ?

ACE 6-hr Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

24-hr Protons & Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

2-hour Electrons -!!!?_

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Could this be a precursor signal of our overdue CME?

I'm off to search for answers..............

wtf
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
United States
11/26/2012 07:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
What's going on now? The ACE Protons and Electrons are goin' CRAZY! Anyone know ?

ACE 6-hr Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

24-hr Protons & Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

2-hour Electrons -!!!?_

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Could this be a precursor signal of our overdue CME?

I'm off to search for answers..............

wtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Holy Carp
shadasonic

User ID: 15732022
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11/26/2012 07:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
What's going on now? The ACE Protons and Electrons are goin' CRAZY! Anyone know ?

ACE 6-hr Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

24-hr Protons & Electrons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

2-hour Electrons -!!!?_

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Could this be a precursor signal of our overdue CME?

I'm off to search for answers..............

wtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'd say it has to be, the drap is picking up proton absorption right now, but boulders got nothing,yet



[link to www.n3kl.org]

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 11/26/2012 07:53 PM
One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If weve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. Were no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. Its simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that weve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back. Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 07:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Anyone seen this yet it looks like something is coming out( flying out) the sun, weird. Or maybe its just me lol..

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 08:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
I can't find any source event for these insane ACE sensor readings unless......maybe......THE NEUTRINOS ARE MUTATING!

All kidding aside, I think some glitch in the ACE sensors, the downlinks, or at Stanford's processors must be responsible for this>>>>>>>>>

:EPAM?:

:Broncosplay:
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 08:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * M2.4 Solar Flare July 14 2017! Earth directed CME (Updated Daily)
Anyone seen this yet it looks like something is coming out( flying out) the sun, weird. Or maybe its just me lol..

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Looks as though the sun gave birth to a new planet to me..


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