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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 01:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cosmic Journeys : Attack of the Sun
[link to www.youtube.com]
Isis One

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11/26/2012 02:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cosmic Journeys : Attack of the Sun
[link to www.youtube.com]

 Quoting: SeaPunk


Very good video SeaPunk, thanks for posting,
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Tiny Trink

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11/26/2012 07:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Everyone,

Great Job night crew.

Stay Safe and Balanced.

Shine Brightly.

Much Love,


[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 07:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

that filament may be taking its time lifting , it was gone ,back, and now flapping off again.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 08:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

The eye of Sauron is upon us!lol
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Luisport

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11/26/2012 08:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdodata.oma.be]

The eye of Sauron is upon us!lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


uhohuhohuhoh
shenue

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11/26/2012 08:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Luisport

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11/26/2012 08:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
 Quoting: shenue


me too
aether

User ID: 28218601
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11/26/2012 08:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wrong thread

sorry rex

Last Edited by aether on 11/26/2012 08:30 AM
Tropicalgirl

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11/26/2012 09:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone, we are on the road, day 4 of driving from FL to CA and watching all the updates. Thanks for vital information, as always!
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 10:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1620 still growing and has fired off at least 8 C-flares. 50% chance of M-flares today.

SIDC Daily Report-

COMMENT: Five sunspot groups were reported today by Catania. Two of
them are expected to produce flaring activity: Catania sunspot groups 27
(NOAA AR 1618) and 31 (NOAA AR 1620) have beta-gamma-delta and
beta-gamma configurations of their photospheric magnetic field,
respectively. Strong magnetic flux emergence that takes place in the
Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620) since yesterday noon will
probably lead to an M-class flare.
In any case, C-class flares are
almost certain as the background X-ray flux is now very close to the C1
level. A proton event is possible in case of a strong flare in Catania
sunspot group 27 or 31 (NOAA ARs 1618 or 1620) due to their position in
the western solar hemisphere
. A possibly Earth-directed CME was detected
this morning originating from the filament channel right to the south of
Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 1620). It was not a halo CME according
to the SOHO/LASCO data, and STEREO A SECCHI/COR2 data indicate a low
speed of this CME (around 300 km/s), so we expect at most a shock
arrival at the Earth without any significant geomagnetic disturbance as
a result. The Earth is currently in the sheath flow after the shock
arrival this morning detected at 04:38 UT by ACE and at 04:32 UT by
SOHO/CELIAS. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude in the
sheath flow decreased from moderately high values (around 10 nT) to the
current values around 7-8 nT, and the IMF is directed predominantly
northward, so the geomagnetic conditions stayed on the quiet to
unsettled level up to now. We do not expect the arrival of the ICME
driver of the shock, so the geomagnetic activity will stay at the quiet
to unsettled level in the coming hours.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

The slow CME mentioned above seen on STEREO Ahead movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i cant wait till December,i cant wait,i ahve waited for years and now the change is less than 5 weeks away



yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee






cool2
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 11:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i cant wait till December,i cant wait,i ahve waited for years and now the change is less than 5 weeks away



yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee






cool2
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 831183


Careful what you wish for. hf
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 24287942
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11/26/2012 11:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So far 1620 has produced only small C-flares, but lots of 'em. The strongest being the C2.3 we just had.

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]

[link to www.lmsal.com]

AR1620-Bigger>
:1620bigger:

AR1620-Stronger>
:1620mag:
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 24287942
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11/26/2012 11:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 11/26/2012 11:22 AM
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 11:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ok Hugh, this is what I have been wondering myself (but haven't asked).

The CME arrive as scheduled, our magnetosphere handled it aptly, ergo no solar storm / geo-effective impact.

Doesn't mean it didn't happen ( some are even saying disappeared ??), just that we did not see the effects here on Earth (other than a few blips here and there), because our magnetosphere prevent penetration, yes ???

After all these were not HUGE events.
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 12:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice prominence liftoff in the NW-

:NWerupt:
miabelieves

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11/26/2012 12:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
Supporter of NIN's Solar Watch Thread
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Except for the initial hit on the 23rd, these multiple CMEs have had little effect on our robust magnetosphere ;) It's like water off a ducks back. This is one of the rare occasions that NOAA actually OVERESTIMATED a CME's impact (just as we did here). I notice there was no mention of the next big CME on the SIDC forecast; I guess we'll have to wait and see if it arrives as scheduled:

Event Issue Date: 2012-11-23 12:16:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2012-11-26 22:36:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 23 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.4 Re

NOAA ENLIL Cone Model cygnet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Why would this puny CME cause a 23 hour disturbance? Strange.......
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ok Hugh, this is what I have been wondering myself (but haven't asked).

The CME arrive as scheduled, our magnetosphere handled it aptly, ergo no solar storm / geo-effective impact.

Doesn't mean it didn't happen ( some are even saying disappeared ??), just that we did not see the effects here on Earth (other than a few blips here and there), because our magnetosphere prevent penetration, yes ???

After all these were not HUGE events.
 Quoting: TS66


Howdy, TS66! You're correct about these not being huge CMEs, but we have seen modest-sized filament eruptions produce G2 or G3 storms on occasion. I anticipated a bigger effect from the quantity of several CMEs. Sometimes we see a magnified effect from cannibalism; but perhaps there's a "field-cancelling effect" possible. I don't know. Most likely it comes down to the polarity of the Bz component. How many times has NOAA predicted a glancing blow and we got a strong disturbance when the Bz turned south.

This next CME is from the large SE filament eruption. There must be some reason for NASA to expect 23-hr disturbance, when they usually call for a 8-12 hr. Is this because of the slow speed? I doubt it because most of the recent CMEs had slow speeds. Or does NASA have a better idea than we do about the POLARITIES of what's coming in. We can only watch and see what happens tonight, if anything.
shadasonic

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11/26/2012 12:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves


Same here Mia,howdy!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 01:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
if you read through this thread I think the site has been attacked.. [link to www.godlikeproductions.com]

It turns out he's actually an expert java developer...

Who knew?

And here I thought he had no skills...

Well looks like the game is a foot little man :)

Enjoy the ride!

I wonder what the "Juriy" will think?

Hope your immigration papers are in order...

damned
 Quoting: ^TrInItY^






Good morning all.

Once again, I had problems connecting to GLP for a while. Two days in a row. Strange.
 Quoting: shenue


me too
 Quoting: Luisport


Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves
Luisport

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Portugal
11/26/2012 01:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: NEW ICE AGE VERSUS GLOBAL WARMING DISCUSSION DATA
madajs

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11/26/2012 01:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, TS66! You're correct about these not being huge CMEs, but we have seen modest-sized filament eruptions produce G2 or G3 storms on occasion. I anticipated a bigger effect from the quantity of several CMEs. Sometimes we see a magnified effect from cannibalism; but perhaps there's a "field-cancelling effect" possible. I don't know. Most likely it comes down to the polarity of the Bz component. How many times has NOAA predicted a glancing blow and we got a strong disturbance when the Bz turned south.

This next CME is from the large SE filament eruption. There must be some reason for NASA to expect 23-hr disturbance, when they usually call for a 8-12 hr. Is this because of the slow speed? I doubt it because most of the recent CMEs had slow speeds. Or does NASA have a better idea than we do about the POLARITIES of what's coming in. We can only watch and see what happens tonight, if anything.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Yeah I agree, a lot of this just came down to milquetoast magnetism of the incoming. We got up to Kp 5- and then with the Bt staying high (around 15 nT) the Bz suddenly switched to firmly positive levels, abruptly relieving the magnetosphere. Lately it seems we've been hit by a lot of negative polarity events, I'd almost come to assume that this series of incoming would follow suit.

Well let's look to the next event! :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shenue

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11/26/2012 01:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought I was going to start haveing withdraws :)
WTflip is up with GLP. I kept getting a server error and when I finally got in it's very very slow. I have had this problem for 2 days???

Okay, I'm done complaining, carry on.
 Quoting: miabelieves


Same here Mia,howdy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Same with me....mainly in the mornings. eastern time

Last Edited by shenue on 11/26/2012 02:08 PM
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Luisport

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11/26/2012 02:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


My friends this can be by lower sun activity?
Hugh M Eye

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11/26/2012 02:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Honestly, I thought we'd see a lot more weeks like this one in March. Check out this timeline from March 2012-

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

That was from Behemoth SS AR1429-

ss1429HMI
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 02:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


peace brothers and sisters,
love to all,

Hpokiehf
NiNzrez (OP)

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11/26/2012 03:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good afternoon everyone :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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11/26/2012 03:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hi Nin .... haven't heard "Behemoth" in a while ...
MissionInvisible

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11/26/2012 03:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Behemoth

spaceweather is calling thei a Behemoth sunspot thingy

check ot the word Behemoth,

[link to en.wikipedia.org]


peace brothers and sisters,
love to all,

Hpokiehf
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28240669


nice find on the wikilink! I have a feeling this one might be intense...
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet...Celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"

Neil deGrasse Tyson



"We were told that the changes in our world would become the catalyst for ones within us..."
Fractal Time, Gregg Braden

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