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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 09:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh well, NOAA has been NO-HELP, haha...at least they got the number right this time. New region AR1654 has been classified as (don't laugh) an ALPHA sunspot measuring in at 260 millionths (I said no laughter). As an unemployed relative-newbie at solar physics, I'm gonna agree with whoever said at least a Beta-Gamma and I'd estimate a size of at least 700 millionths. If we ever have a "solar Katrina", NOAA will be the "solar FEMA". Those overpaid eggheads make me wanna puke sometimes. (end rant.)
stir1doh1

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 9 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1638 N13W87 307 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1642 S25W29 250 0080 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1644 N15W19 239 0040 Hax 02 01 Alpha
1645 S14W72 292 0030 Cro 05 05 Beta
1646 N13W09 229 0030 Hrx 02 03 Alpha
1649 S15E18 202 0080 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1650 S30E30 192 0120 Eao 12 07 Beta
1652 N19E38 183 0210 Fac 17 19 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09E35 185 0030 Cro 06 04 Beta
1654 N08E71 149 0260 Hhx 05 02 Alpha
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR 1654-Official-
:1/9-1654:

Latest color intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Lame-ass NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest
event of the summary period was a C4 solar flare from old Region 1640
(N28, L=322) from beyond the west limb. Regions 1646 (N13W09), 1652
(N19E38), and new Region 1654 (N08E71) also produced low level C-class
events. There are currently 10 numbered spot regions on the disk. Most
of the regions have shown signs of stability or slight decay. Region
1652, a Beta-Gamma, is the most magnetically complex region on the
visible disk. SOHO LASCO imagery indicated multiple CMEs in the past 24
hours, however analysis indicated that none appear to be Earth directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
moderate levels
(R1 radio blackouts) during the forecast period (09-11
Jan).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Alpha?
that is clearly Not an Alpha
1doh1
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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01/08/2013 09:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Makes you wonder about people that are the "so called" experts that can't tell the difference between and ALPHA and BetaGamma
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 09:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hope everyone is ready for the big show
Solarmax is now arriving!



Facts and Information About The Solar Max
[link to www.brighthub.com]
and
[link to solcomhouse.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Don't count yer chickens just yet Blondie,...


:)

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


i have been counting them for over a week now while going through data hahaha
me coming to this conclusion has nothing to do with this new big sunspot on the eastern limb
we have everyhing i posted in that post the above quote is from (on previous page)
then we have the solar polar fields chart from Nov 18, 2012
[link to www.solen.info]
where we can clearly see the polar fields are about to cross
that was around a month and a half ago
when that update came out, there was not yet any significant sunspot rash breaking out on the sun, that we would see happen as polar fields on the sun prepare to reverse
the rash of sunspots happens from the innermixing of magnetic fields the occures while the polar fields are about to flip
we are now seeing the rash of sunspots and this is refleced in the high sunspot number we see this week of 196, when this time last week the sunspot number was at a low 55
this tells us the polar fields are now innermixing, causing this sunspot rash and the solar polar reversal is about to happen
= Solarmax
:)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Awesome comment!

sunhf

[link to wso.stanford.edu] North.

[link to wso.stanford.edu] South.

[link to wso.stanford.edu] Combined mean.

[link to wso.stanford.edu]
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


thank you for adding those
i was just about to do that
those are all updated as of Dec 2012
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 10:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Could be that because it is a new active region that is the default classification until they can analyze it further (ie: the other part of the spot is fully visible)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 30062100


Yes, they're anal, plodding, and methodical. I've seen some regions on the disk for 3 days before they even get numbered. Which brings me to the confusion over Sunspot Numbers. There's at least two DAILY SS numbers. There's a Wolf Number, a Catania Number, and an International Sunspot Number (ISN). Then there's a "smoothed" SS number which is what we see on the Solar Cycles charts.

I seem to have lost some of my links, but I think we saw a daily number of 200 back in November. I seem to remember a Dr. Strong video concerning this, but I'm having trouble finding it today. Anyway, in Oct. 2011 we had a daily number of 207 (I believe NOAA uses the Wolf #).
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Today NOAA's SS number was 192
and SIDC has the International Number at 108 (0r is it 099?). A big difference.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 108, BASED ON 02 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 7 Jan 2013
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 150
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 004
AK WINGST : 002
ESTIMATED AP : 001
ESTIMATED ISN : 099, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
[link to sidc.oma.be]

SIDC Archive of Daily Sunspot Numbers:
[link to sidc.oma.be]
Daily Sunspot Numbers-ESA/NOAA:
[link to www.cfbw.com]

Do we really need this confusion? No, we have a better measurement of solar activity-the 10.7cm radio flux. It's a consistent barometer of solar energy levels and isn't dependent on personal observations and subjective guesstimates. As we know these spots are continually morphing, dividing, shrinking and expanding every few hours.

10cm Solar Radio Flux:

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

rant
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


i have the next best thing :)
Nov 2011 is when it was
[link to www.solen.info]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/08/2013 10:00 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
optimum judgment

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01/08/2013 10:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1_8_12 those dates
 Quoting: Da fuq


Thats not the one delete the three present shots then press newest image then re add the three
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 10:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No Flares [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] That is crazy shit.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


that may be about to change
Bradford Solar Flare model has
58% chance for M Flares
58% chance of X Flares
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/08/2013 10:26 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Da fuq

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01/08/2013 10:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No Flares [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] That is crazy shit.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


that may be about to change
Bradford Solar Flare model has
58% chance for M Flares
58% chance of X Flares
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


inmypants
Isis One

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01/08/2013 10:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No Flares [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] That is crazy shit.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


that may be about to change
Bradford Solar Flare model has
58% chance for M Flares
58% chance of X Flares
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for the update NiNhf
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Serendipitous

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01/08/2013 10:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1_8_12 those dates
 Quoting: Da fuq


Thats not the one delete the three present shots then press newest image then re add the three
 Quoting: optimum judgment


I thought I had that wrong when I saw the dates. Now I am on an iPad, don't think I can do it from here but I'll try.

Sorry.
hf
"May your electricity go out a second before the shit hits the fan." -Conspiracy Theorist's Blessing

”Your work is not to drag the world kicking and screaming into a new awareness. Your job is to simply do your work… Sacredly, Secretly, and Silently … and those with ‘eyes to see and ears to hear’, will respond.”
AC 5341

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01/08/2013 10:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No Flares [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] That is crazy shit.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


that may be about to change
Bradford Solar Flare model has
58% chance for M Flares
58% chance of X Flares
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That is a cool link ! They have their predictor ASAP available for download to run yourself.
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
optimum judgment

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01/08/2013 10:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1_8_12 those dates
 Quoting: Da fuq


Thats not the one delete the three present shots then press newest image then re add the three
 Quoting: optimum judgment


I thought I had that wrong when I saw the dates. Now I am on an iPad, don't think I can do it from here but I'll try.

Sorry.
hf
 Quoting: Serendipitous


no probs no apology needed but thanks all the same.
whiteangel

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01/08/2013 10:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
2012 DA14 Feb 15 0.09 LD 57 m
[link to www.spaceweather.com]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Hugh M Eye

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01/08/2013 10:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
whiteangel

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01/08/2013 10:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Cool video. Wonder what all was hitting Earth during that time frame? Would be awesome to see the same thing for Earth.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
shenue

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01/08/2013 10:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace. Thank you all for the information today!!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Hugh M Eye

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01/08/2013 11:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace. Thank you all for the information today!!
 Quoting: shenue


Goodnight, shenue! I'm yawning too. Maybe if go to sleep we'll get some big flares goin'.
peace
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/08/2013 11:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Almost all of the magnetic fields look connected across the equator now.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Recent magnetogram of massive AR1654 barely fits into a smilie:
:1654mag:

Latest full-disk color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/08/2013 11:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Almost all of the magnetic fields look connected across the equator now.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Recent magnetogram of massive AR1654 barely fits into a smilie:
:1654mag:

Latest full-disk color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


She's looking good.
Da fuq

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01/08/2013 11:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Almost all of the magnetic fields look connected across the equator now.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Recent magnetogram of massive AR1654 barely fits into a smilie:
:1654mag:

Latest full-disk color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Here comes the kingbkshining

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/08/2013 11:38 PM
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/08/2013 11:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who is having these problems

Thread: Who is not sleeping
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 11:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Almost all of the magnetic fields look connected across the equator now.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Recent magnetogram of massive AR1654 barely fits into a smilie:
:1654mag:

Latest full-disk color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thanks for the updated image Hugh
she sure does look alive
im still calling it one huge sunspot area
it's way to connected to be classed as 2 seperate spots
but... im sure thats what NOAA will do
oh, and they will also say they are both Alpha
nothing to look at here folks hahaha
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 11:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who is having these problems

Thread: Who is not sleeping
 Quoting: Goofy for God


hiding2

at least a week now, im still awake at 3-4 am and if i do get to sleep, im up within a few hours
im usually in bed by 10pm ish

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/08/2013 11:44 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/08/2013 11:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.weather.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/08/2013 11:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31795189


wtf
what a choice in wording :/
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
AR1654 Monster

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01/08/2013 11:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31795189


wtf
what a choice in wording :/
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I don't think it deals specifically with today's sunspot activity. If you click the link it says "10 most frightening envionmental risks" or something along those lines.
Da fuq

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01/08/2013 11:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31795189


wtf
what a choice in wording :/
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Our magnetosphere/atmosphere is struggling enough as it is. If this thing looks at us wrong its over. A dense enough CME following even an M class would be enough to put us back in the stone age.
Isis One

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01/08/2013 11:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who is having these problems

Thread: Who is not sleeping
 Quoting: Goofy for God


hiding2

at least a week now, im still awake at 3-4 am and if i do get to sleep, im up within a few hours
im usually in bed by 10pm ish
 Quoting: NiNzrez


oh, don't even get me started on the sleep issue. I think's its a spiritual thing. Nice thread GFG, too bad it didn't get more play. I would like to see what others are experiencing. Here is a new symptom. Today, I felt like a pile of dog poop, lol. Stiff, like inflammation has acted up and bloated like a blowfish. I wonder if its the protons like NiN says. I think it has something to do with a some weird new shit going on with the electromagnetics of the planet, both earthbound and solar.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 12:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31795189


wtf
what a choice in wording :/
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I don't think it deals specifically with today's sunspot activity. If you click the link it says "10 most frightening envionmental risks" or something along those lines.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


what a timing anyway
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 12:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who is having these problems

Thread: Who is not sleeping
 Quoting: Goofy for God


hiding2

at least a week now, im still awake at 3-4 am and if i do get to sleep, im up within a few hours
im usually in bed by 10pm ish
 Quoting: NiNzrez


oh, don't even get me started on the sleep issue. I think's its a spiritual thing. Nice thread GFG, too bad it didn't get more play. I would like to see what others are experiencing. Here is a new symptom. Today, I felt like a pile of dog poop, lol. Stiff, like inflammation has acted up and bloated like a blowfish. I wonder if its the protons like NiN says. I think it has something to do with a some weird new shit going on with the electromagnetics of the planet, both earthbound and solar.
 Quoting: Isis One


I hear you on the sleep. Ugh!! Today I feel like I got hit by a freight train and within the last 30 mins, ears went nuts. Unk if related to solar or not, but it isn't fun either!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 01:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet

[link to science.nasa.gov]

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