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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
psyoptics

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01/09/2013 07:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
No Flares [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] That is crazy shit.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


that may be about to change
Bradford Solar Flare model has
58% chance for M Flares
58% chance of X Flares
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Oh my. Double barrel.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano



Updated at: 2013 Jan 08 2200 UTC
FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr
CLASS M

35 %

35 %
CLASS X

05 %

05 %


who's is on track with their predictions....

would be odd if a alpha popped a X..if this is really alpha.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 07:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Almost all of the magnetic fields look connected across the equator now.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Recent magnetogram of massive AR1654 barely fits into a smilie:
:1654mag:

Latest full-disk color magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thanks for the updated image Hugh
she sure does look alive
im still calling it one huge sunspot area
it's way to connected to be classed as 2 seperate spots
but... im sure thats what NOAA will do

oh, and they will also say they are both Alpha
nothing to look at here folks hahaha
 Quoting: NiNzrez


looks like i was wrong
they are calling it like many of us did here, and have it as one huge sunspot
not 2 seperate regions

BIG SUNSPOT: A very large sunspot is emerging over the sun's eastern limb. Numbered AR1654, it consists of two dark cores each 4 or more times wider than Earth.
[link to spaceweather.com]
For now, NOAA forecasters are estimating a 35% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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abeliever

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01/09/2013 07:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This needs to be pinned again for this week because of this...



bump
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 08:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is the latest image of this huge sunspot region
monstersunspot4
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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WeAreOne

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01/09/2013 08:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is the latest image of this huge sunspot region
monstersunspot4
 Quoting: NiNzrez


The images we first saw of these looked like two separate sunspots. They now look as if they have joined?

Last Edited by WeAreOne on 01/09/2013 08:13 AM
Be the change you want the World to be. Be someone that makes you happy.
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 08:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is the latest image of this huge sunspot region
monstersunspot4
 Quoting: NiNzrez


The images we first saw of these looked like two separate sunspots. They now look as if they have joined?
 Quoting: WeAreOne


i believe it looked like 2 seperate spots to many because of the curvature of the sun and it being on the very limb of the disk. it can make it very hard to tell

it still appears to have the same structure as it has had since it 1st appeared

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/09/2013 09:04 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 08:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok so now it's looks like the Alpha classification that NOAA has given this new sunspot region WAS a default class

Region 1654 is the largest region on the
disk however due to the regions location, magnetic classification is
still difficult to properly assess. As Region 1654 rotates further into
view and more imagery becomes available, a better understanding and
analysis of this region will be possible.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 08:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning all ..... hf

Looks like a background of C will keep us in at least C flares for awhile, otherwise ???
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 08:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here are the colored magnetogram smilies we have added to the thread of sunspot 1654
Showing the progression of this sunspot region from Jan 7th - Jan 9th


:172013:
monsterspot3
:1813:
:1654mag:
monstersunspot4
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 08:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here are the colored magnetogram smilies we have added to the thread of sunspot 1654
Showing the progression of this sunspot region from Jan 7th - Jan 9th


:172013:
:monsterspot3:
:1813:
:1654mag:
:monstersunspot4:
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Decaying already ....
psyoptics

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01/09/2013 08:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
still looks pretty quiet here.

i still say watch 1652....
it is stable now, will it decay?
if it does there may not be any 1654.

i read almost all earth facing spots are in decay...still!
1dunno1
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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01/09/2013 08:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 08:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


I'm sorry Psy. Seems to be the norm of late.
MamaHasAwakened

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01/09/2013 08:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


Sorry to hear about your friend!

hf
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here are the colored magnetogram smilies we have added to the thread of sunspot 1654
Showing the progression of this sunspot region from Jan 7th - Jan 9th


:172013:
monsterspot3
:1813:
:1654mag:
monstersunspot4
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Decaying already ....
 Quoting: TS66


nope
when a sunspot is on the limb, we are viewing the sunspot at a harsh angle
the curve of the disk makes everything look more "squished" (haha)together
this is why there is a waiting period for posting the magnetic class
we get a more clear view of it when its not at such a angle
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


so sorry to hear this horrid news
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 09:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


Sorry for this sad news Psyop. Love and peace to you.

Might be the smilie that Ninz posted but looking at it closely, looks to me like 1654 is already decaying. The density isn't there and the red on the right side looks like it broke up alittle. Looks like it has stage fright and will be a no show.

Edit: on the right hand red spot, just noticed there is a blue area right under it, that wasn't there last night. Wouldn't that make it a Delta?

Last Edited by whiteangel on 01/09/2013 09:15 AM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we are about to see a larger flare pop off
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

it has been building for a few hours now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

looking at the latest SDO magnetogram, there is some negative complexity innetmixing in the leading positive section
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 09:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we are about to see a larger flare pop off
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

it has been building for a few hours now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

looking at the latest SDO magnetogram, there is some negative complexity innetmixing in the leading positive section
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Looks angry enough ... lol
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 09:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


Sorry for this sad news Psyop. Love and peace to you.

Might be the smilie that Ninz posted but looking at it closely, looks to me like 1654 is already decaying. The density isn't there and the red on the right side looks like it broke up alittle. Looks like it has stage fright and will be a no show.

Edit: on the right hand red spot, just noticed there is a blue area right under it, that wasn't there last night. Wouldn't that make it a Delta?
 Quoting: whiteangel


its because my smilie is smaller :/
here you can look directly at the current colored magnetogram
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

it is in a weird spot right now with the solar curve
as it rotates more in a earth direction, the curve will lessen and we will see it appear to spread out

you can look at this spot on the STEREO images and see it has not deminished any over the last few days
[link to www.solarham.net]
look how small it looked on the 6th when it 1st appered
wow it sure has grown a lot since then
as always we will have to wait and see what this one does while earth facing
but looking at the progression of this region, it would appear that it has done nothing but grown in size each day since 1st forming

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/09/2013 09:26 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 09:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yup TS you see this happen too???????

i know we here would like to see this get crazy....but.....

now we have seen these huge spot roll around before and give little to no action.
but i will say look out as this rolls around to the other side!

i still feel ......................
sorry just found out an old friend has cancer
 Quoting: psyoptics


Sorry for this sad news Psyop. Love and peace to you.

Might be the smilie that Ninz posted but looking at it closely, looks to me like 1654 is already decaying. The density isn't there and the red on the right side looks like it broke up alittle. Looks like it has stage fright and will be a no show.

Edit: on the right hand red spot, just noticed there is a blue area right under it, that wasn't there last night. Wouldn't that make it a Delta?
 Quoting: whiteangel


its because my smilie is smaller :/
here you can look directly at the current colored magnetogram
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

it is in a weird spot right now with the solar curve
as it rotates more in a earth direction, the curve will lessen and we will see it appear to spread out

you can look at this spot on the STEREO images and see it has not deminished any over the last few days
[link to www.solarham.net]
look how small it looked on the 6th when it 1st appered
wow it sure has grown a lot since then
as always we will have to wait and see what this one does while earth facing
but looking at the progression of this region, it would appear that it has done nothing but grown in size each day since 1st forming
 Quoting: NiNzrez

I will blame it on just waking up, but now yes, it does appear it is still growing, hey my eyes were blurry with sleep, never old age!!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Tanos

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01/09/2013 10:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry not posting anything of substance!

bump for later reading.

Thanks!
The unexamined life is not worth living
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like a Delta ???

:delta1913:
psyoptics

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01/09/2013 10:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
look at the 7 day progression ....
i am seeing an area of -60 degrees to 60 degrees were the SS go quiet.
is this happening to 1652?
as 1654 passes -90 going closer to -60 i still feel it will decay. but this might regain it power passing 60 degrees.

has anyone noticed the area where the SS go quiet change...at all over the last month? i remember last fall thinking our planet would have orbited around and we would be facing the area getting the full blown blasts we were seeing pop off from the SS that fell asleep while facing earth.

TY all for your thoughts.....why must one's doctor give how many days one has to live. seems anti-productive. i think the best cure we always come from within!
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
look at the 7 day progression ....
i am seeing an area of -60 degrees to 60 degrees were the SS go quiet.
is this happening to 1652?
as 1654 passes -90 going closer to -60 i still feel it will decay. but this might regain it power passing 60 degrees.

has anyone noticed the area where the SS go quiet change...at all over the last month? i remember last fall thinking our planet would have orbited around and we would be facing the area getting the full blown blasts we were seeing pop off from the SS that fell asleep while facing earth.

TY all for your thoughts.....why must one's doctor give how many days one has to live. seems anti-productive. i think the best cure we always come from within!
 Quoting: psyoptics


Working for Hospice for almost 7 years, I know no Dr is capable of determining an expiration date.

Earth facing decay ??? This has been the unanswered question here for several months now ....

From coincidence to divine intervention. It would be nice to find the answer.
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 11:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
look at the 7 day progression ....
i am seeing an area of -60 degrees to 60 degrees were the SS go quiet.
is this happening to 1652?
as 1654 passes -90 going closer to -60 i still feel it will decay. but this might regain it power passing 60 degrees.

has anyone noticed the area where the SS go quiet change...at all over the last month? i remember last fall thinking our planet would have orbited around and we would be facing the area getting the full blown blasts we were seeing pop off from the SS that fell asleep while facing earth.

TY all for your thoughts.....why must one's doctor give how many days one has to live. seems anti-productive. i think the best cure we always come from within!
 Quoting: psyoptics


Been watching this and it does seem to be moving further and further over from -90, then to -60 and now looks like 1652 is still hanging in there at -50. If it manages to hold together from -50 to -30, then I am thinking things are changing and we might start seeing more activity.

On July 12th we had an X-flare (I remember because I was leaving on vacation and wondered what I would do going over the Rockies if a Carrington happened with just my kids and me) and after that time, things Earth side really died. We have had a little activity since then, but not much.

-90 to +90 has been a dead zone.

For your friend, have then look into apple cider vinegar. Have them learn that love and peace are more important than anything else. Positive thinking when facing the big C isn't realistic, but thinking love about all DOES.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Spittin'Cesium

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01/09/2013 11:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
shotgun

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdodata.oma.be]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/09/2013 11:08 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/09/2013 11:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunhf

pilot
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Has been above a C level since about 0900 UTC. Almost looks like a LDE??
[link to www.solarham.net]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
NiNzrez
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01/09/2013 11:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Has been above a C level since about 0900 UTC. Almost looks like a LDE??
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: whiteangel


this is what we can expect to happen with such a large sunspot region turning into a earth facing position
they have not been going this in the past months, because they have all been dying as they turn tword earth
the rise in the Xray flux as well as the magnetic complexity were seeing on recent SDO images show us this sunspot does not want to deacy

there is also a unstable area between 1654 & 1652 that im watching very close for a CME

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