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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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01/09/2013 09:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA needs an X-flare to wake them up, LOL!

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 10 Issued at 0030Z on 10 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 09 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 09/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W41 249 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1644 N13W31 239 0020 Hax 01 01 Alpha
1645 S14W85 293 0030 Cro 05 02 Beta
1648 N05W14 222 0010 Axx 04 03 Alpha
1649 S15E05 202 0070 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1650 S30E16 192 0100 Eao 13 07 Beta
1652 N19E25 183 0200 Eac 13 18 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09E21 186 0020 Cso 03 02 Beta
1654 N10E60 148 0350 Eki 14 15 Beta
1655 S22W02 210 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta


Discussion-Blah...blah...blah....:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest
events of the summary period were two C2 solar flares from Region 1654
(N10E60). Region 1654 , an Eki Beta, is the largest region on the disk.
Region 1652 (N19E25) is currently magnetically classified as a
Beta-Gamma which is the most magnetically complex region on the visible
disk. There are currently 13 numbered active regions on the disk with 9
regions retaining sunspots.
SOHO LASCO imagery indicated a few CMEs in
the past 24 hours; however analysis indicated that none of the CMEs
appeared to be Earth directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels
with a chance for
moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts) for the next three days (10-12
Jan).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
psyoptics

User ID: 11919225
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01/09/2013 09:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a little bit of plasma lifting to the north east of 1654
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


and look at it here
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

a bit odd looking...
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082

that is an area i have been watching all day.
it is weird.
this is also the origin to that ribbon which was seen on the COR2 by Hugh.
that is where TS circled as BGD.

now will she perform....or get the -60 degrees of stage fright.
some how i feel look out when she round say +50 degrees.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
shenue

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01/09/2013 09:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace.

:ThrowingKisses S:
Sometimes 'the having' is not as sweet as 'the wanting'. So be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Future Meteorologist"

User ID: 26012302
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01/09/2013 09:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace.

:ThrowingKisses S:
 Quoting: shenue


Night.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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01/09/2013 09:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My goodness...I have been and still am sooo bloody busy all the time of late!

I now have not only(for those that remember)my supreme Friend of old staying at mine but as of Tonight I now have his Girlfriend from Sweden staying also!

It's all good though,really - what are Friends for at the end of the Day?

sunhf

Much Luv to my Sol Family here(you know who you are)miss not being 'in' much recently to converse with you all but hey,soon,soon.

Anyhoo' I think Sol is trying to get this but is too Sharp -
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.youtube.com] : )

Check out 1654s' leading spot(super Zoom)in the Dopplergram [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] what does it resemble(if anything)to you guys!?

Personally I think it looks a little like this chapgrin and b

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/09/2013 10:01 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
psyoptics

User ID: 11919225
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01/09/2013 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well we now have a beta!!!!

Current region status 09 01 2013 ----------------------- Reg# flares level lat long area mag. state
1642 no flares LOW -25 41 50 ALPHA DECLINING
1644 no flares LOW 13 31 20 ALPHA DECLINING 1645 no flares LOW -14 85 30 BETA STABLE
1649 no flares LOW -15 -5 70 ALPHA DECLINING
1650 no flares LOW -30 -16 100 BETA DECLINING
1652 M-flare(s) MODERATE 19 -25 200 BETA-GAMMA DECLINING
1653 no flares LOW 9 -21 20 BETA DECLINING
1654 no flares LOW 10 -60 350 BETA GROWING
1648 no flares LOW 5 14 10 ALPHA STABLE
1655 no flares LOW -22 2 10 BETA STABLE

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/09/2013 09:57 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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01/09/2013 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Every few hours I check and compare images of 1654, and each time it has grown bigger and more complex. This should be a Beta-Gamma-on the threshold of Delta, if it's not there already.

My Forecast-Solar Activity will be High to EXTREME sometime in the next 72 hours with a slight chance of a double-digit X-class flare and/or eyebrow-raising CME/SEP event. Be prepared.

Yikes! It's Still Growing!!!
:1654bigger:
:1654magneto:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Future Meteorologist"

User ID: 26012302
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01/09/2013 09:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Every few hours I check and compare images of 1654, and each time it has grown bigger and more complex. This should be a Beta-Gamma-on the threshold of Delta, if it's not there already.

My Forecast-Solar Activity will be High to EXTREME sometime in the next 72 hours with a slight chance of a double-digit X-class flare and/or eyebrow-raising CME/SEP event. Be prepared.

Yikes! It's Still Growing!!!
:1654bigger:
:1654magneto:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow!!! Look at that thing

Holy Carpglp uncle
NiNzrez
User ID: 28232082
United States
01/09/2013 10:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
while talking with a friend today about the location of 1654 on the solar disk
we were talking about previous X flares
and i noticed something
bare with me a sek here
going through the Flare list on the 1st page of this thread
the 1st recorded X flare was on March 9th 2011
so, lets go with the list of only the X flares, and the sunspots they came from
lets all look at what region of the sun the past X flares came from

1 X Flare on 3/9/2011 - Sunspot 1166
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
Images of Sunspot 1166
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]
[link to www.qsl.net]
[link to www.flickr.com]

X6.9 Flare on 8/9/2011 @ 08:08 UTC - Sunspot 1263
- Largest Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 24
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1263
[link to www.spaceweather.com]
[link to www.thunderbolts.info]

X1.8 Flare on 9/7/2011 @ 22:23 UTC - sunspot 1283
X2.1 Flare on 9/6/2011 @ 22:16 UTC - sunspot 1283

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1283
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]

X1.9 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 09:40 UTC - sunspot 1302
X1.4 Flare on 9/22/2011 @ 11:01 UTC - sunspot 1302

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1302
[link to upload.wikimedia.org]
[link to www.oneminuteastronomer.com]
[link to upload.wikimedia.org]

X1.9 Flare on 11/03/2011 @ 20:27 UTC - sunspot 1339
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1339
[link to mvas.org]
[link to modernsurvivalblog.com]
[link to justmeint.files.wordpress.com]

this is where the active region appears to have moved north on the solar disk a bit, with sunspot 1401 loacted to it's south east [link to wwalert.files.wordpress.com] appearing to be in the region of the solar dick i am refering to in all the above images.
some inner magnetics seen going on within the sun

X1.7 Flare on 1/27/2012 @ 18:33 UTC - Sunspot 1402
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1402
[link to wwalert.files.wordpress.com]
[link to www.landscheidt.info]
[link to 4.bp.blogspot.com]

X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429
X5.4 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 00:24 UTC - Sunspot 1429
X1.1 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 04:09 UTC - Sunspot 1429

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1429
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]
[link to www.arrl.org]
[link to www.nasa.gov]

-this is where something occured on the sun that caused the magnetics to change. there is a 4 month gap with no X flares at all, from March 7, 2012 to July 6, 2012
this is when the sunspots become more eratic in the southern section. From what we found on this thread, this is at the time that the northern hemisphere of the sun was doing a early reversal
-just one article on this event
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


loking or some other solar info online, i ran across this post, from this thread, from back in March 2012
this is a overlay of the sunspots from the latitude that i was speaking of in the above post

:overlay:

here is a direct link to that post
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 610)
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/09/2013 10:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Excuse moi whilst I exclaim the following apt profanity.

Fucking incredibly beautiful action can be seen in the Northern Hemisphere,Esp. the movement about 1654 but also each Northern Limb has some spectacular features worth re-watching several times over in the proceeding Movie in 171Angstroms [link to sdodata.oma.be] .

I've noticed some very 'Fluid' like action in the last 2/3 Days,leaping Prominences,Surges and 'splatters' that have resembled a more Fluidic constitution and behavior,almost a little like how Water would behave as it Boils and toils(just a observation I'd noticed mainly through the H alpha Movies).

sun

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/09/2013 10:18 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
United States
01/09/2013 10:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
while talking with a friend today about the location of 1654 on the solar disk
we were talking about previous X flares
and i noticed something
bare with me a sek here
going through the Flare list on the 1st page of this thread
the 1st recorded X flare was on March 9th 2011
so, lets go with the list of only the X flares, and the sunspots they came from
lets all look at what region of the sun the past X flares came from

1 X Flare on 3/9/2011 - Sunspot 1166
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
Images of Sunspot 1166
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]
[link to www.qsl.net]
[link to www.flickr.com]

X6.9 Flare on 8/9/2011 @ 08:08 UTC - Sunspot 1263
- Largest Solar Flare of Solar Cycle 24
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1263
[link to www.spaceweather.com]
[link to www.thunderbolts.info]

X1.8 Flare on 9/7/2011 @ 22:23 UTC - sunspot 1283
X2.1 Flare on 9/6/2011 @ 22:16 UTC - sunspot 1283

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1283
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]

X1.9 Flare on 9/24/2011 @ 09:40 UTC - sunspot 1302
X1.4 Flare on 9/22/2011 @ 11:01 UTC - sunspot 1302

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1302
[link to upload.wikimedia.org]
[link to www.oneminuteastronomer.com]
[link to upload.wikimedia.org]

X1.9 Flare on 11/03/2011 @ 20:27 UTC - sunspot 1339
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1339
[link to mvas.org]
[link to modernsurvivalblog.com]
[link to justmeint.files.wordpress.com]

this is where the active region appears to have moved north on the solar disk a bit, with sunspot 1401 loacted to it's south east [link to wwalert.files.wordpress.com] appearing to be in the region of the solar dick i am refering to in all the above images.
some inner magnetics seen going on within the sun

X1.7 Flare on 1/27/2012 @ 18:33 UTC - Sunspot 1402
(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1402
[link to wwalert.files.wordpress.com]
[link to www.landscheidt.info]
[link to 4.bp.blogspot.com]

X1.3 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 01:14 UTC - Sunspot 1429
X5.4 Flare on 3/7/2012 @ 00:24 UTC - Sunspot 1429
X1.1 Flare on 3/5/2012 @ 04:09 UTC - Sunspot 1429

(northern hemisphere sunspot)
images of Sunspot 1429
[link to 2.bp.blogspot.com]
[link to www.arrl.org]
[link to www.nasa.gov]

-this is where something occured on the sun that caused the magnetics to change. there is a 4 month gap with no X flares at all, from March 7, 2012 to July 6, 2012
this is when the sunspots become more eratic in the southern section. From what we found on this thread, this is at the time that the northern hemisphere of the sun was doing a early reversal
-just one article on this event
[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


loking or some other solar info online, i ran across this post, from this thread, from back in March 2012
this is a overlay of the sunspots from the latitude that i was speaking of in the above post

overlay

here is a direct link to that post
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) (Page 610)
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


edit: well the smilie was not working, now it is haha

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/09/2013 10:25 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 10:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we now have a sunspot 1655...?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Future Meteorologist"

User ID: 26012302
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01/09/2013 10:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we now have a sunspot 1655...?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I think it's on top of 1654
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who the he'll do they think they are kidding, what is the point ??? This is completely ludicrous.
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we now have a sunspot 1655...?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Look at the size of the ststed areas of 54 & 55 ....
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

52

Completely disgusted for being so disillusioned ....

GAAH
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 10:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Every few hours I check and compare images of 1654, and each time it has grown bigger and more complex. This should be a Beta-Gamma-on the threshold of Delta, if it's not there already.

My Forecast-Solar Activity will be High to EXTREME sometime in the next 72 hours with a slight chance of a double-digit X-class flare and/or eyebrow-raising CME/SEP event. Be prepared.

Yikes! It's Still Growing!!!
:1654bigger:
:1654magneto:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


agree with ya there Hugh!
this one is doing everything BUT dying out as it rotates into a more earth facing position
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

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01/09/2013 10:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hmmm?

Have 1654 and 1652 just gained a tinee extra bit of Polarity mixing [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] (Super Zoom) or have I misread that?

I'm a little behind at the moment : )

shortbus

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/09/2013 10:52 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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01/09/2013 10:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Who the he'll do they think they are kidding, what is the point ??? This is completely ludicrous.
 Quoting: TS66


I completely agree.
That took me 4 minutes to type. keeping on em TS you know they check us out

AARRGGHH can't pull up links on my phone

Last Edited by sonic tonic on 01/09/2013 10:54 PM
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 10:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we now have a sunspot 1655...?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I think it's on top of 1654
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I haven't seen it on an image yet, but with an area of 10, it probably is.

1655 S22W02 210 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
Isis One

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01/09/2013 10:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29014015


Interesting, just off hand, does anyone know the site's success rate?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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01/09/2013 11:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all hf

:upset:
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 11:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mind if I share that info elsewhere Ninz?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Isis One

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01/09/2013 11:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
for reading while we wait !

[link to www.mps.mpg.de]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29014015


That was soooo helpful, thank you.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Da fuq

User ID: 16258666
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01/09/2013 11:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Every few hours I check and compare images of 1654, and each time it has grown bigger and more complex. This should be a Beta-Gamma-on the threshold of Delta, if it's not there already.

My Forecast-Solar Activity will be High to EXTREME sometime in the next 72 hours with a slight chance of a double-digit X-class flare and/or eyebrow-raising CME/SEP event. Be prepared.

Yikes! It's Still Growing!!!
:1654bigger:
:1654magneto:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The leading spot gaining instability?

arnoldsolardoom!
Isis One

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01/09/2013 11:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My goodness...I have been and still am sooo bloody busy all the time of late!

I now have not only(for those that remember)my supreme Friend of old staying at mine but as of Tonight I now have his Girlfriend from Sweden staying also!

It's all good though,really - what are Friends for at the end of the Day?

sunhf

Much Luv to my Sol Family here(you know who you are)miss not being 'in' much recently to converse with you all but hey,soon,soon.

Anyhoo' I think Sol is trying to get this but is too Sharp -
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.youtube.com] : )

Check out 1654s' leading spot(super Zoom)in the Dopplergram [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] what does it resemble(if anything)to you guys!?

Personally I think it looks a little like this chapgrin and b
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Looks like a foxwolf, we miss you tooo! Glad you are having fun with your company.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
whiteangel

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01/09/2013 11:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we now have a sunspot 1655...?
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I think it's on top of 1654
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


I haven't seen it on an image yet, but with an area of 10, it probably is.

1655 S22W02 210 0010 Bxo 03 03 Beta
 Quoting: TS66


Is it the circled area?
[link to www.solarham.net]

Edit; yes it is
[link to www.solarham.net]

Last Edited by whiteangel on 01/09/2013 11:21 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/09/2013 11:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i was just going through sdo
watch the xray flux!
that main leading spot is spliting and becoming way more complex
big flare on the way if this keeps up
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
United States
01/09/2013 11:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mind if I share that info elsewhere Ninz?
 Quoting: whiteangel


feel free to share anything i post, anywhere you wish!
thank you for asking :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
United States
01/09/2013 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 29014015


Interesting, just off hand, does anyone know the site's success rate?
 Quoting: Isis One


well, 100%
but thats not because there is any person doing it
this is from directly below the flare model

"How does flare monitor work?

Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities."

so as the sunspot regions change from minute to minute, their flare model reads the SDO image and assigns a flare probability based on the complexity of each sunspot
if the sunspot becomes more complex, the cances of X or M go up, depending on how complex it becomes
if the sunspot decays, the % of flares goes down

LOVE the bradford university flare model!
always a great tool for a heads up on a sunspot becoming more complex
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?

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