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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Da fuq

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01/10/2013 02:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


Anyone ever see it remain elevated that high for as long as it has?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/10/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


GLP effect in full force!!! C3.7
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 02:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


Anyone ever see it remain elevated that high for as long as it has?
 Quoting: Da fuq


What are you speaking of? It didn't remain all that elevated for all that long. Just look back at some of the LDE in the past. This is literally nothing...

What we just had was another "C" flare. Nothing all that significant.
whiteangel

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01/10/2013 02:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You mean above the C level? Yes, it used to, especially during really active times when M-flares happened several times a day and X-flares monthly.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
whiteangel

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01/10/2013 03:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The blue line would stay above the A level, while the red line would stay above the C level
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 03:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You mean above the C level? Yes, it used to, especially during really active times when M-flares happened several times a day and X-flares monthly.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Not too long ago in fact. IIRC even last year there were times when it hung even higher than this for long periods.
Luisport

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01/10/2013 03:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A single sunspot doesn't mean much, but solar activity definitely does cycle over the years. The image below, however, certainly supports a cooling trend. [link to www.meteo.psu.edu]
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 03:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A single sunspot doesn't mean much, but solar activity definitely does cycle over the years. The image below, however, certainly supports a cooling trend. [link to www.meteo.psu.edu]
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm not sure I follow. Are you just saying that sunspots can impact the weather here on Earth (I agree). But that map is not a solar map by any means. Not sure I follow the point to this thread fully. :)

Additionally, that may not (in fact likely) will not be a long term cooling trend. 500mb pattern can change over weeks and months. It's not a great climate change indicator for long term cooling or warming.

Last Edited by AR1654 Monster on 01/10/2013 03:08 PM
Luisport

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01/10/2013 03:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A single sunspot doesn't mean much, but solar activity definitely does cycle over the years. The image below, however, certainly supports a cooling trend. [link to www.meteo.psu.edu]
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm not sure I follow. Are you just saying that sunspots can impact the weather here on Earth (I agree). But that map is not a solar map by any means. Not sure I follow the point to this thread fully. :)
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


i only make this post here because there are so many people here that are sun lovers...hf
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A single sunspot doesn't mean much, but solar activity definitely does cycle over the years. The image below, however, certainly supports a cooling trend. [link to www.meteo.psu.edu]
 Quoting: Luisport


I'm not sure I follow. Are you just saying that sunspots can impact the weather here on Earth (I agree). But that map is not a solar map by any means. Not sure I follow the point to this thread fully. :)
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


i only make this post here because there are so many people here that are sun lovers...hf
 Quoting: Luisport


Gotcha :) - I certainly agree with your notion. I have no doubt in my mind that solar activity had a lot to do with the Blizzards around my area in early 2010 (weak cycle).
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 03:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gap in the X-ray flux chart but appears to be rising after the gap.
Da fuq

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01/10/2013 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel


GLP effect in full force!!! C3.7
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


ohyeahshitstir2scheming
Nacht im Walde

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01/10/2013 04:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just to keep things in perspective, this is a spot from 2003 and it didn't harm us (we did have an x-17 flare when it was Earth facing!)

x17
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are. - Anais Nin
whiteangel

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01/10/2013 04:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just to keep things in perspective, this is a spot from 2003 and it didn't harm us (we did have an x-17 flare when it was Earth facing!)

x17
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


clappa

During a solar minimum, right?

Last Edited by whiteangel on 01/10/2013 04:24 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Da fuq

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01/10/2013 04:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just to keep things in perspective, this is a spot from 2003 and it didn't harm us (we did have an x-17 flare when it was Earth facing!)

x17
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


It's all about that CME.
AR1654 Monster

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01/10/2013 05:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Heading down into the B levels.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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01/10/2013 05:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just to keep things in perspective, this is a spot from 2003 and it didn't harm us (we did have an x-17 flare when it was Earth facing!)

x17
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


It's all about that CME.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Yep.
Fedex12

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01/10/2013 05:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Fedex
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 06:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just to keep things in perspective, this is a spot from 2003 and it didn't harm us (we did have an x-17 flare when it was Earth facing!)

:x17:
 Quoting: Nacht im Walde


Abso-fricken-lutely. 52 & 54 have shown promise, but so did many, many others that have come and gone without pomp or circumstance..... It's all a waiting game.
whiteangel

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01/10/2013 06:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And waiting...

And waiting................

And waiting.........................

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 06:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And waiting...

And waiting................

And waiting.........................

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
 Quoting: whiteangel


wink
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 06:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Seriously folks, a rose is a rose is a rose.

Since Region 1654 has rotated onto the visible disk,
background x-ray flux has increased from low B-class to low C-class
levels. 10cm radio flux levels have also increased from around 140 sfu
to almost 170 sfu with the arrival of Region 1654. Region 1654 is
currently classified as an Eki Beta group and is the largest region on
the disk. SDO magnetogram and intensitygram imagery suggest magnetic
complexity emerging in the intermediate spots of this region but more
data is needed to be able to ascertain the severity of these changes.


[link to www.solarham.net]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/10/2013 06:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: ººEATºº


 Quoting: Wash


Because via the Magnetic Footpoint Tethers Earth has to differing regions on the Solar Disc we are sending at Light Speed down the Earth/Sun Magnetic Portals [link to science.nasa.gov] Flux Transfer Event estimated synchronized frequencies in order that they be kept open longer or shorter and to try and see if mitigating Negative FTE SEP's is possible as well as steering the location of these temporary Earth/Sun Magnetic 'Tubes' - This has a consequence(or deliberate action)in that the side effect of Weakening the Magnetic Footpoints on the Solar Disc inhibits the generation of Sunspots as more intense/complex Magnetic Fields are needed to help in the generation of Sunspots.

sun





(Though,I jest) grin and b
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


The real question is whether 1654 will follow the many, many other sunspots and start to decay as it gets closer to facing us?

It's almost as if all the energy is being sucked in on the eastern edge to build and release the energy as it rotates around the far side with little left once it gets to our side.
 Quoting: WeAreOne


From reading the link below (if I've interpreted it correctly) a sunspot needs a strong magnetic field to remain active; therefore I wonder if, for some reason, the earth facing sunspots are losing polarity due to a breakdown of the sun's magnetic field on the earth facing side. If earth's magnetic connection with the sun is becoming weak, maybe this could be causing the decay?? I would be grateful if anyone could either confirm or deny this as my knowledge is limited to say the least! Apologies if this is a ridiculous question!

[link to physics.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Elemental


Hello Elesunhf

Good thought/comment...had you read mine I made the other Day(Above)or has your brain also been meandering along the same path?

OneLuv2.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/10/2013 06:43 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/10/2013 06:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello allhf

I just noticed that the Southern Crown Filament tried to eject,I don't suppose anyone knows if a CME was produced as a result do they?

[link to sdodata.oma.be] Extreme South-East toward the end(if you can avert your eyes from 1654)it can be seen to almost escape Sol before raining back down again,did any eject,anyone?

Rice and Peas.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello allhf

I just noticed that the Southern Crown Filament tried to eject,I don't suppose anyone knows if a CME was produced as a result do they?

[link to sdodata.oma.be] Extreme South-East toward the end(if you can avert your eyes from 1654)it can be seen to almost escape Sol before raining back down again,did any eject,anyone?

Rice and Peas.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Well there certainly seems to be ejecta, but nothing remarkable [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] on SOHO. Catus has not caught up to it yet. It will be the 4th in the same amount of days in the AM SW quadrant (my eyes are averted wink)
Why so bitter Cesium ??
Spittin'Cesium

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01/10/2013 07:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So,so many missing Hours of data [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] there will have been CMEs' in that time frame,no doubt.

It is really grating on me now.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/10/2013 07:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello allhf

I just noticed that the Southern Crown Filament tried to eject,I don't suppose anyone knows if a CME was produced as a result do they?

[link to sdodata.oma.be] Extreme South-East toward the end(if you can avert your eyes from 1654)it can be seen to almost escape Sol before raining back down again,did any eject,anyone?

Rice and Peas.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Well there certainly seems to be ejecta, but nothing remarkable [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] on SOHO. Catus has not caught up to it yet. It will be the 4th in the same amount of days in the AM SW quadrant (my eyes are averted wink)
Why so bitter Cesium ??
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66winkback at ya' !

Bitter?

Why do you say that?

Did you think because I meant 'Avert your eyes' in a derogatory manner? - I meant it as in '1654 is so badass it is hard to not look at it' : )

chuckle

Edit:Yes,I have been noticing the 4 for 4 from NiNz Magic Corner also.

Double Edit:I meant the South-East by the way 66hf if you watch the movie you can see a great portion of the Crown Filament lift way above Sol before raining back down,though there is the SW ejection also : )

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/10/2013 07:14 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 07:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So,so many missing Hours of data [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] there will have been CMEs' in that time frame,no doubt.

It is really grating on me now.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Last night,(wine), was the straw that broke this camel's back.

Tonight, (vodka), it is, what it is, what it is ....

What's that AA serenity prayer say again ??? LOL

wink
Spittin'Cesium

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01/10/2013 07:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So,so many missing Hours of data [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] there will have been CMEs' in that time frame,no doubt.

It is really grating on me now.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Last night,(wine), was the straw that broke this camel's back.

Tonight, (vodka), it is, what it is, what it is ....

What's that AA serenity prayer say again ??? LOL

wink
 Quoting: TS66


I am walking down a Road I see a hole,I walk straight into it.

I am walking down the same Road,I notice the hole is still there yet I walk into it anyhow.

I am walking down the Road,I know the hole is there and I think perhaps I should avoid it,I fall into it anyway.

I am walking down the Road,I know the Hole is there and I remember it hurts to fall into it again,this time I walk around the hole.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/10/2013 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So,so many missing Hours of data [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] there will have been CMEs' in that time frame,no doubt.

It is really grating on me now.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Last night,(wine), was the straw that broke this camel's back.

Tonight, (vodka), it is, what it is, what it is ....

What's that AA serenity prayer say again ??? LOL

wink
 Quoting: TS66


I am walking down a Road I see a hole,I walk straight into it.

I am walking down the same Road,I notice the hole is still there yet I walk into it anyhow.

I am walking down the Road,I know the hole is there and I think perhaps I should avoid it,I fall into it anyway.

I am walking down the Road,I know the Hole is there and I remember it hurts to fall into it again,this time I walk around the hole.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hope we are still talking about NASA and not my binge drinking (which I included for my own anecdotal relief) !!! LOL

kiss me

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