SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

I am walking down a Road I see a hole,I walk straight into it.

I am walking down the same Road,I notice the hole is still there yet I walk into it anyhow.

I am walking down the Road,I know the hole is there and I think perhaps I should avoid it,I fall into it anyway.

I am walking down the Road,I know the Hole is there and I remember it hurts to fall into it again,this time I walk around the hole.

Hope we are still talking about NASA and not my binge drinking (which I included for my own anecdotal relief) !!! LOL

Lol : )

We just had a luvly CME from the South-East [link to sdodata.oma.be] and [link to sdodata.oma.be] .

just got in for the day, trying to catch up
here are some things for a update (sorry if already posted)

EVIL TWINS? A pair of large sunspots has rotated into view over the sun's eastern limb. The two dark cores, collectively known as AR1654, are each big enough to swallow Earth four times over
The two sunspots are connected by a canopy of strong magnetic fields, which are presently crackling with low-level C-flares. Much stronger eruptions are possible. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours
[link to spaceweather.com]

we have a filament ejection in the southeastern limb
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

nothing seen on STEREO yet
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
so, not quite sure if most of the ejecta was pulled back onto the solar surface
(still need to go through images a bit better)


.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest
event of the period was a C8/sf at 10/1746 UTC from Region 1654
(N08E47), the largest and most threatening group on the disk. Latest
analysis assigned the region an Fki/Beta-Gamma classification with an
area of 770 millionths.
With a total of 8 active numbered regions on the
solar disk, background x-ray flux has increased to low C-class
levels. 10cm radio flux levels have also increased from around 140 sfu
to around 170 sfu.
Several CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery
over the past 24 hours. Most of the CMEs appear to be filament activity
in the vicinity of Region 1654. None of the observed CMEs appear to have
an earthward trajectory. Region 1652 (N20E11) is currently magnetically
classified as a Beta-Gamma group but is starting to show weak signs of
decay in the leader spot. The trailer spots have shown up and down
growth variations over past 24 hours. Two new regions are being
monitored and not yet numbered.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/10/2013 08:37 PM

Hello NiNz

Thank you - Hope you are Good!



Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/10/2013 09:23 PM

hiya SC :)
i survived today. i call that a win haha
hope you are well :)

Hahaaa!

Yes,same here : )

Sorry,I mis-posted the incorrect Smilie for you,should be -

here i will post 3 images of sunspot 1654 as it has changed and become more complex over the last 35hrs (about)
i will use the SDO magnetogram images
i find them easier to see the positive and negative sections/interaction within the sunspots

1654 as it appeared yesterday, Jan 9th


1654 from around 12hrs ago today


1654 as it is right now

looks more mixed up but may be decaying.

I suppose its' time should come soon or forever shall it hold its' peace.

Thank you muchly for the comparison images NiNz

looking at the movie on SDO for the bule composit, i can see a energy feeding going on between 1654 and 1652 that has occured just in the last few hours
give me a minute and i will try to get some images together for it

Hello NINz and everyone. I see you beat me to the update tonight. I feel vindicated in my assessment of the size being 700+Millionths, and we all knew it was at least B-G early on. This spot still is rapidly morphing, at least on the front end. The trailing spot seems to be growing, too. Many other spots are disappearing.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 11 Issued at 0030Z on 11 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S24W56 250 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1644 N15W44 238 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S15W07 201 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1650 S29E01 194 0120 Eao 12 08 Beta
1652 N20E11 183 0230 Eac 13 29 Beta-Gamma
1653 N11E06 188 0010 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1654 N08E47 147 0770 Fki 16 21 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W11 207 0030 Cso 04 03 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 10/2400Z Jan
Nmbr Location Lo
1641 N02W89 284
1643 S14W67 262
1646 N13W37 232
1648 N05W27 222
1651 N20W33 228
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1654 NOW-

1654 Color Magnetogram-
:1/11-1654mag:

Hey, SolQueen-I was just noticing the same thing on the PFSS overlay:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Here we go...a strong flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

CME [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] .

That bridge between the two is hot!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

It looks to be sending its' tentacles South-West also [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/10/2013 09:59 PM

C 4.3 @ 1654:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

The Mauna Loa Observatory H-alpha movie loop of the past 8 hours shows a "Ring of Fire" flickering and sparking around that leading group of spots. They seem to be firing around that ring and not from the heart of the region. Also, the trailing spot seems to be completely out of the action so far....

MLSO H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I'm still surprised at the lack of big flares so far. Well, we get to wait him out for another week or so, LOL.

wow!

Yes,wow!

It may give 1654 a little more shelf life.

Nice catch, Cesium! I'm not sure but may be a filament eruption beyond the east limb. We'll have to wait for SOHO updates. The STEREO B shows a rather large filament liftoff and I think was also visible in the previous Mauna Loa movie.

STEREO B EUVI:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

And the MLSO movie again:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

I am pretty sure it is from the South-East limb CME I posted earlier,seen here [link to sdodata.oma.be] and here [link to sdodata.oma.be] .

Awesome EUVI Hugh!

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/10/2013 10:17 PM

the different magnetic classifications of sunspots
[link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]

thats what i was thinking
i have been waiting to see if that would show on STEREO

Both your EUVI link and Mauna Loa are incredible!

Esp. the EUVI.

Interstellar energy/photon cloud starting to come into the mix? Aiding transfer between the 2 sunspots?

Na,just Polarities doing what they do.

Just keeps thinking about it.

thanks Ninz for the black and white, it does look more defined liked that.

Hello Angel : )

About what!?

The South-West heading tentacles are now also as hot as the bridge between 54/52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !

Solen on 1654 -

Region 11654 [N08E60] has major flare potential. There are currently no obvious magnetic delta structures. Interestingly both the large leading and trailing penumbrae have narrow interior opposite polarity flux channels [link to www.solen.info] .

Hmmm?

This