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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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01/11/2013 01:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We're almost always a step ahead of NOAA here on SOLAR WATCH, now we're like 2 or 3 steps ahead, LOL.

I posted this on Jan. 8th-

I'm gonna agree with whoever said at least a Beta-Gamma and I'd estimate a size of at least 700 millionths.

And this on Jan. 9th-

Every few hours I check and compare images of 1654, and each time it has grown bigger and more complex. This should be a Beta-Gamma-on the threshold of Delta, if it's not there already.

My Forecast-Solar Activity will be High to EXTREME sometime in the next 72 hours with a slight chance of a double-digit X-class flare and/or eyebrow-raising CME/SEP event. Be prepared.

iamwithTHIs was when NOAA's forecast was for low activity levels, haha.

AR1654 Still Growing Slightly Today-
:1/11-SS1654:
:ss1654mag:
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ooops like LASP updated,

here's the screen shot

:11113:
Hugh M Eye

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01/11/2013 02:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The trailing spot appears to be flaring now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Looks like it here too. Even the magnetics between 54 & 52 are lit up.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


TS 66, of course you were the first to point out the Delta regions. Thanks for your good work. Have you seen the latest GOES X-Ray image?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


smile_kiss
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 31775728
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01/11/2013 02:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The trailing spot appears to be flaring now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Looks like it here too. Even the magnetics between 54 & 52 are lit up.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


TS 66, of course you were the first to point out the Delta regions. Thanks for your good work. Have you seen the latest GOES X-Ray image?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


smile_kiss
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


No, but thanks Hugh, it's bookmarked now

I think we all knew deep down it was a delta (even the dept of commerce). wink
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!
AR1654 Monster

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01/11/2013 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The flare predictor

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

lol...either this thing is dead/dying or that flare monitor is not accurate.
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
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01/11/2013 02:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
AR1654 Monster

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01/11/2013 02:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/11/2013 02:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
Da fuq

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01/11/2013 02:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It cannot even hit a satellite, of course.
jerkit
wait, it look's like it nicked kepler.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/11/2013 02:43 PM
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The trailing spot appears to be flaring now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Looks like it here too. Even the magnetics between 54 & 52 are lit up.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


TS 66, of course you were the first to point out the Delta regions. Thanks for your good work. Have you seen the latest GOES X-Ray image?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


smile_kiss
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


No, but thanks Hugh, it's bookmarked now

I think we all knew deep down it was a delta (even the dept of commerce). wink
 Quoting: TS66


Agreed. reverse umbra magnetism on first appearance jan 09.

I am really liking the glassing off on the lower right hand. Shows a large area for future complexity in any future coronal loops; If the differential rotation keeps up and the central umbra hold tight, we may see some cme's as the region contracts... probably 2 days time.

I just keep thinking this in hope terms. The penumbra seems to be breaking down (although this could just be the expansion of an future contraction)...
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's from the prominence eruption in the SE this morning hf
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 02:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's from the prominence eruption in the SE this morning hf
 Quoting: TS66


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Is this another incoming m? or is this accounted for yet?
Hugh M Eye

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01/11/2013 02:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flaring in the NW area of 1654 now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
GeomagneticStorm
User ID: 1426914
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01/11/2013 02:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's from the prominence eruption in the SE this morning hf
 Quoting: TS66


Thanks. That's what I thought but I didn't want to be wrong :)
Isis One

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01/11/2013 02:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
it appears that there is CME activity going on to the southwest of 1654
that whole area we have been talking about seeing the southern part of the magnetic conncetion
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
to see this best, watch the movie for all of today on SDO in the AIA 094, 335, 193

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Did anyone notice the flare from the spot behind 54? A little spot behind and slightly above. Is that the other part of 54? I set the clock for 0:00 on the 11th, then used the step option to catch it. It happens only two steps in
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

Thread: The Universe is Funny Thread
GeomagneticStorm
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01/11/2013 02:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's from the prominence eruption in the SE this morning hf
 Quoting: TS66


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Is this another incoming m? or is this accounted for yet?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


Might be from the coronal hole. Not sure.
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Question: was that from a different sunspot? Maybe one that has not turned Earth-facing yet?
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


I'm not sure. I want to wait for someone else to look at this.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's from the prominence eruption in the SE this morning hf
 Quoting: TS66


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Is this another incoming m? or is this accounted for yet?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


Well Bz is wide open, but I'm not aware of any inbound CMEs, or coronal hole streams for today. I'm sure we will, but it takes a couple days, and the prediction models haven't updated yet for today's activity.

Temp, density, and wind speed are within the norm.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flaring in the NW area of 1654 now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

@hugh
Are you under the opinion that the umbra is contracting / in which case potentially setting stage for future cme's?
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
its raising again

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Looks like it here too. Even the magnetics between 54 & 52 are lit up.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


TS 66, of course you were the first to point out the Delta regions. Thanks for your good work. Have you seen the latest GOES X-Ray image?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


smile_kiss
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


No, but thanks Hugh, it's bookmarked now

I think we all knew deep down it was a delta (even the dept of commerce). wink
 Quoting: TS66


Agreed. reverse umbra magnetism on first appearance jan 09.

I am really liking the glassing off on the lower right hand. Shows a large area for future complexity in any future coronal loops; If the differential rotation keeps up and the central umbra hold tight, we may see some cme's as the region contracts... probably 2 days time.

I just keep thinking this in hope terms. The penumbra seems to be breaking down (although this could just be the expansion of an future contraction)...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


I see as many as 8 Delta spots on 1654 (where pos & neg umbra are less than 2* of eachother). This magnetic complexity is what increases the chance of flaring, rather than how tight the penumbra is "wrapped " wink IMHO.
Isis One

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01/11/2013 03:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


Someone filmed the beast.
 Quoting: Da fuq


WOW!! wish it were partially cloudy here, we have heavy cover, will watch the rest of the week though, soooo cool.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

Thread: The Universe is Funny Thread
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
01/11/2013 03:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The trailing spot appears to be flaring now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Looks like it here too. Even the magnetics between 54 & 52 are lit up.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


TS 66, of course you were the first to point out the Delta regions. Thanks for your good work. Have you seen the latest GOES X-Ray image?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


smile_kiss
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That's a lot of ENERGY
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

Thread: The Universe is Funny Thread
Hugh M Eye

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01/11/2013 03:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flaring in the NW area of 1654 now:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

@hugh
Are you under the opinion that the umbra is contracting / in which case potentially setting stage for future cme's?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


No, I'm not sure what you mean. There are multiple Umbrae and I haven't noticed anything contracting with this region. CMEs and what triggers them is matter of much mystery and study by the top heliophysicists. I just sit back and watch; enjoying the beauty of it. I have noticed, however, lots of material, and filamentary plasma in and around 1654 & 52. It's just waiting for the right flare configuration and strength to release a big CME.


***The double-hump of that last flare appears to be that connection to 1652. Watch both regions flaring in unison in the Big Bear Observatory movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've just happened across this *beginners guide* to sunspots for anyone (like me) who is still learning the basics.

[link to www.daystarfilters.com]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
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01/11/2013 03:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sunspot 1654 looks very beautiful right now through my Coronado PST. Hopefully will do imaging by tomorrow when I take it in to Orion.
Anonymous Coward
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01/11/2013 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2 M flares today, it's been a while lol!
Waterbug

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01/11/2013 04:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought you guys [edit] oops... and gals might be interested..



Interstellar Medium Flow into the Solar System
[link to www.redorbit.com]

[snip]

An auxiliary measurement made by IBEX is the detection of the interstellar gas that flows directly into the solar system. This shows the first observation of interstellar hydrogen and oxygen gas. Credit: SwRI
 Quoting: Waterbug


IBEX ENA Flux on Heliosphere
[link to www.redorbit.com]

[snip]

Illustration of one of the possibilities for the bright ribbon of emission seen in the IBEX ENA maps. The galactic magnetic field shapes the heliosphere as it drapes over it. The ribbon appears to trace the area where the magnetic field is most parallel to the surface of the heliosphere (the heliopause).
 Quoting: Waterbug


Our shields are weakening....



Solar Cycle 23, Images and Measurements
[link to www.redorbit.com]

[snip]

Measurements from the ACE and Ulysses spacecraft show that the force exerted by solar wind is literally falling with time. The top figure shows how the Sun changes with time over the solar cycle. At solar minimum the Sun’s hot corona appears much darker and cooler than at solar maximum. The bottom panel shows sunspot number on the Sun, which also indicates how active the Sun is. The middle panel shows the falling force of the solar wind with time (from 1992 through 2010).
 Quoting: Waterbug


Last Edited by Waterbug on 01/11/2013 04:01 PM

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