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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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01/11/2013 11:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm a little confused by this Chart [link to www.solen.info] is it saying Southern Max and Northern Max are done!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


According to their calculations yes. However, solar stuff is an imperfect science (of course). This could be a double peak like last cycle.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


For just how imperfect,here [link to wattsupwiththat.com] and [link to www.sciencedaily.com] if you weren't already aware!

New Models 'R' us.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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01/11/2013 11:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not saying nothing but.....
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

...the blue line jumped an entire unit in one minute

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/11/2013 11:28 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 12:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm a little confused by this Chart [link to www.solen.info] is it saying Southern Max and Northern Max are done!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


According to their calculations yes. However, solar stuff is an imperfect science (of course). This could be a double peak like last cycle.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


You don't need to tell me its' a imperfect Science Friendsunhf

I've been balls deep for a while now : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


balls deep haha
i use that term quite a bit IRL haha
NiNzrez
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01/12/2013 12:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
notice there has been a C flare at the roughly same time, each hour, for the last 5 hours
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 12:29 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
notice there has been a C flare at the roughly same time, each hour, for the last 5 hours
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


Or rather heightened Flaring on a LDE C : )

Nice Mpeg of the Behind CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 12:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A new one for me,I've not seen a blob like this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] in the South on the Mk4/MLSO before now.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
01/12/2013 12:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/12/2013 12:40 AM
shenue

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01/12/2013 12:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone. Peace
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 12:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank Hugh!

1652 did Flare and can be seen around half way into this movie [link to sdodata.oma.be]

1657 is what was known as S2164(I think)and is to the South-West of 1654 - It's location on the 10th was S16E37,though I may be mistaken : )
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/12/2013 12:49 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
01/12/2013 12:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone. Peace
 Quoting: shenue


Good night shenue!

goodnight
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 12:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone. Peace
 Quoting: shenue


Guten Nacht Shensleeping
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
01/12/2013 12:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank Hugh!

1652 did Flare and can be seen around half way into this movie [link to sdodata.oma.be]

1657 is what was known as S2164(I think)and is to the South-West of 1654 - It's location on the 10th was S16E37,though I may be mistaken : )
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey, Sir Cesium, NOAA gave the coordinates of 23 degrees EAST longitude. You may find a faint speck there, but I found no Beta region.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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01/12/2013 01:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Update:

We had 1 minute 10cm Radio Burst from the M-flare.
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 571
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 11 1859 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 11 1845 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Jan 11 1846 UTC
End Time: 2013 Jan 11 1846 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 330 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 174 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOLAR BREEZE PICKING UP- from NOAA Discussion again:

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, has steadily
increased from initial values of approximately 300 km/s to end of day
values of approximately 380 km/s. The Phi angle remained predominately
positive (away) throughout the past 24 hours. The Bt component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 2 nT to 8 nT while the Bz
component ranged from 4 to -8 nT. The steady increase in solar wind
speed and a positive Phi angle are indicative of an impending coronal
hole high speed stream.


.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to increase through Day 1 (12
Jan) and plateau on Day 2 (13 Jan) with the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream. Solar wind speeds are expected to begin to decrease
gradually starting on Day 3 (14 Jan) as the effects from the coronal
hole high speed stream wane.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux plot:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
01/12/2013 01:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank Hugh!

1652 did Flare and can be seen around half way into this movie [link to sdodata.oma.be]

1657 is what was known as S2164(I think)and is to the South-West of 1654 - It's location on the 10th was S16E37,though I may be mistaken : )
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey, Sir Cesium, NOAA gave the coordinates of 23 degrees EAST longitude. You may find a faint speck there, but I found no Beta region.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahaaa!

I see,I think we have this one cleared up -

'New region 11657 [S17E24] emerged on January 8 and got its NOAA number 3 days later. The region developed early on January 11, then decayed' [link to www.solen.info] .

Strange.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 01:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After nearly 4 Hours of no Updates [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] is back again,still showing a bumpy SW/Density and Temp.

Thank Hugh for clearing up the 'Are we due for arrival' question earlier - It was mentioned that it looked like a incoming CHS.

paper

wink

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/12/2013 01:19 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
NiNzrez
User ID: 28232082
United States
01/12/2013 01:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
new solen update has been issued

Last major update issued on January 12, 2013 at 06:00 UTC.
Region 11652 [N19W02] decayed in the trailing spot section while penumbral area increased in the leading spot section. The region has polarity intermixing and could produce a minor M class flare

Region 11654 [N08E33] developed a weak magnetic delta structure in a small penumbra in the southwestern section. Further M class flaring is likely, a major flare is possible. C5+ Flares: C9.2 at 06:14, M1.2 at 09:11, M1.0/1F at 15:07 UTC.

New region 11656 [N22E55] rotated into view on January 9 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as it developed penumbra on both polarities.

New region 11657 [S17E24] emerged on January 8 and got its NOAA number 3 days later. The region developed early on January 11, then decayed

[link to www.solen.info]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 01:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank Hugh!

1652 did Flare and can be seen around half way into this movie [link to sdodata.oma.be]

1657 is what was known as S2164(I think)and is to the South-West of 1654 - It's location on the 10th was S16E37,though I may be mistaken : )
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey, Sir Cesium, NOAA gave the coordinates of 23 degrees EAST longitude. You may find a faint speck there, but I found no Beta region.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahaaa!

I see,I think we have this one cleared up -

'New region 11657 [S17E24] emerged on January 8 and got its NOAA number 3 days later. The region developed early on January 11, then decayed' [link to www.solen.info] .

Strange.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So it appears 1657 was the one I first mentioned above(S2164) [link to www.solen.info] There she be!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
01/12/2013 02:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is now directly Earth-facing and capable of producing strong flares and/or CMEs.
AR1652-
:1/12-1652:

AR1654 has grown slightly in the leading section. The trailing spot has morphed a bit and resembles a pentagon with a rough triangle umbra.
AR1654-
:1/12-1654:
AR1654 Magnetogram...Looks Delta To Me-
:1/12-1654mag:

AR1652 & AR1654 Remain Connected Electro-Magnetically-
:1652&54:

HMI pfss manetic field overlay image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA 171a-Latest Image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Cosmogenesis12

User ID: 31985185
Portugal
01/12/2013 02:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 02:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooo,Background has dropped below its' C1.0 Level to B8.0!

Expect a jump or it's died [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
01/12/2013 02:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Backside CME still looking awesome [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and Ahead is now updating too [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] !

About time.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
SnowboardingAlien

User ID: 2230505
United States
01/12/2013 02:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Backside CME still looking awesome [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and Ahead is now updating too [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] !

About time.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


damn.... what time of the year does earth go over there? well... I guess the sun spins also as we go around....... hmmmmmm anyone know how long the sun takes to do one rotation on its axis? earth is 365... but the sun spins the same direction we go i think? so many questions.... gonna go on google :P
I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe. Then I wonder what universe am I in.
Cosmogenesis12

User ID: 31985185
Portugal
01/12/2013 02:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooo,Background has dropped below its' C1.0 Level to B8.0!

Expect a jump or it's died [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


is gonna get cold if that happens Spittin

Lets hope not


sure u waiting for the jump...

crazy shit
never seen this
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
01/12/2013 03:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIZE MATTERS:AR1654 still has a little growing to do to take top honors in the bigness competition. However I only found two regions bigger in 2012. On July 13, AR1520 was a bloated Gigantor at 1460 Millionths; and on March 8, AR1429 grew to 1270 Millionths. Both of these were classified Beta-Gamma-Delta and both produced X-flares. There may be one or two others but I don't think so. ARs 1476 and 1515 were big, but less than 1100 millionths big.

AR1520-July 2012
1520 7/10
AR1429-March 2012-
ss1429HMI
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 03:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIZE MATTERS:AR1654 still has a little growing to do to take top honors in the bigness competition. However I only found two regions bigger in 2012. On July 13, AR1520 was a bloated Gigantor at 1460 Millionths; and on March 8, AR1429 grew to 1270 Millionths. Both of these were classified Beta-Gamma-Delta and both produced X-flares. There may be one or two others but I don't think so. ARs 1476 and 1515 were big, but less than 1100 millionths big.

AR1520-July 2012
1520 7/10
AR1429-March 2012-
ss1429HMI
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Great stuff Hugh!

My Star -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Time to Stellify -


[link to www.youtube.com]

And for those with the F.E.A.R -


[link to www.youtube.com]

sunmusic
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 04:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 32020327
Germany
01/12/2013 04:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


kind of strange that it gets brighter while its floating away from the sun (but maybe thats just because of an instrument error)
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 04:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


kind of strange that it gets brighter while its floating away from the sun (but maybe thats just because of an instrument error)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32020327


Or it is getting closer to the Instrument.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Cosmogenesis12

User ID: 31985185
Portugal
01/12/2013 05:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks preety Geoefective right?


i feel ma ears with a zuuummmmmmmmmmm
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
01/12/2013 05:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks preety Geoefective right?


i feel ma ears with a zuuummmmmmmmmmm
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis12


Hello Cosmo : )

No,it is heading the opposite direction.

Here is the CME on Ahead [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] it is much brighter on Behind [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] this means it is traveling more on the Farsidesunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1

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