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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 01:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 now measured at 1100 Millionths! I told ya it was growing....oh, and NOAA doesn't see a Delta either.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 12 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W70 252 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W58 240 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W21 203 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W16 198 0110 Cao 05 02 Beta
1652 N19W00 182 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W08 190 0010 Cao 00 02 Beta
1654 N08E31 151 1100 Fki 17 36 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W24 206 0010 Cro 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E52 130 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1657 S17E23 159 0010 Cro 02 02 Beta
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1656 is obviously a Beta region and larger than 0010 millionths. I suppose it's also growing. AR1657 can't be found by me, so I guess it's invisible now. At 1100 millionths, 1654 may be the largest active region of Cycle 24. If not, it has gotta be close to it. If I find time I'll check back in the old sunspot archives to see.

Latest Intensitygram:
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

NOAA Discussion:

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) is the most
threatening region on the solar disk. 1654 has shown slight growth
throughout the period and maintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration
with an estimated area of 1,100 millionths.
1654 produced two M-class
flares over the past 24 hours, the first was an M1 event at 11/0911 UTC
with an associated type II radio sweep of 537 km/s and a type IV, and
the second was an M1/2f event at 11/1507 UTC. An impulsive Tenflare was
observed at 11/1845 UTC, and peaked at 330 solar flux units. Region
1652 (N19W00) also showed slight growth and maintains a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration,
but has not produced an event during this
period. Newly-numbered Region 1656 (N22E52) is an Axx type Alpha group
while newly-numbered Region 1657 (S17E23) is a Cro type Beta group. We
are currently awaiting LASCO and STEREO imagery to determine if a
possible coronal mass ejection associated with the 11/0911 UTC M1 flare
has an earthward component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1 radio blackouts)
over the next three days (12 - 14 Jan) with Region 1654 being the most
likely culprit.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652 DID produce an event because I saw it! Lockheed logs a C4.5 flare from 1650 in the southern hemisphere, but their flare movie for that time period focuses on 1654. Looks like the Pros are off their game also, haha.

[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank Hugh!

1652 did Flare and can be seen around half way into this movie [link to sdodata.oma.be]

1657 is what was known as S2164(I think)and is to the South-West of 1654 - It's location on the 10th was S16E37,though I may be mistaken : )
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hey, Sir Cesium, NOAA gave the coordinates of 23 degrees EAST longitude. You may find a faint speck there, but I found no Beta region.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahaaa!

I see,I think we have this one cleared up -

'New region 11657 [S17E24] emerged on January 8 and got its NOAA number 3 days later. The region developed early on January 11, then decayed' [link to www.solen.info] .

Strange.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So it appears 1657 was the one I first mentioned above(S2164) [link to www.solen.info] There she be!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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01/12/2013 02:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is now directly Earth-facing and capable of producing strong flares and/or CMEs.
AR1652-
:1/12-1652:

AR1654 has grown slightly in the leading section. The trailing spot has morphed a bit and resembles a pentagon with a rough triangle umbra.
AR1654-
:1/12-1654:
AR1654 Magnetogram...Looks Delta To Me-
:1/12-1654mag:

AR1652 & AR1654 Remain Connected Electro-Magnetically-
:1652&54:

HMI pfss manetic field overlay image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA 171a-Latest Image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Cosmogenesis12

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01/12/2013 02:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 02:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooo,Background has dropped below its' C1.0 Level to B8.0!

Expect a jump or it's died [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 02:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Backside CME still looking awesome [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and Ahead is now updating too [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] !

About time.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 02:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Backside CME still looking awesome [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and Ahead is now updating too [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] !

About time.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


damn.... what time of the year does earth go over there? well... I guess the sun spins also as we go around....... hmmmmmm anyone know how long the sun takes to do one rotation on its axis? earth is 365... but the sun spins the same direction we go i think? so many questions.... gonna go on google :P
Cosmogenesis12

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01/12/2013 02:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ooo,Background has dropped below its' C1.0 Level to B8.0!

Expect a jump or it's died [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


is gonna get cold if that happens Spittin

Lets hope not


sure u waiting for the jump...

crazy shit
never seen this
Hugh M Eye

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01/12/2013 03:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIZE MATTERS:AR1654 still has a little growing to do to take top honors in the bigness competition. However I only found two regions bigger in 2012. On July 13, AR1520 was a bloated Gigantor at 1460 Millionths; and on March 8, AR1429 grew to 1270 Millionths. Both of these were classified Beta-Gamma-Delta and both produced X-flares. There may be one or two others but I don't think so. ARs 1476 and 1515 were big, but less than 1100 millionths big.

AR1520-July 2012
1520 7/10
AR1429-March 2012-
ss1429HMI
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 03:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
SIZE MATTERS:AR1654 still has a little growing to do to take top honors in the bigness competition. However I only found two regions bigger in 2012. On July 13, AR1520 was a bloated Gigantor at 1460 Millionths; and on March 8, AR1429 grew to 1270 Millionths. Both of these were classified Beta-Gamma-Delta and both produced X-flares. There may be one or two others but I don't think so. ARs 1476 and 1515 were big, but less than 1100 millionths big.

AR1520-July 2012
1520 7/10
AR1429-March 2012-
ss1429HMI
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Great stuff Hugh!

My Star -


[link to www.youtube.com]

Time to Stellify -


[link to www.youtube.com]

And for those with the F.E.A.R -


[link to www.youtube.com]

sunmusic
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 04:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 04:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


kind of strange that it gets brighter while its floating away from the sun (but maybe thats just because of an instrument error)
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 04:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Pretty bloody large CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] Ommfff!?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


kind of strange that it gets brighter while its floating away from the sun (but maybe thats just because of an instrument error)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32020327


Or it is getting closer to the Instrument.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Cosmogenesis12

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01/12/2013 05:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks preety Geoefective right?


i feel ma ears with a zuuummmmmmmmmmm
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 05:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks preety Geoefective right?


i feel ma ears with a zuuummmmmmmmmmm
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis12


Hello Cosmo : )

No,it is heading the opposite direction.

Here is the CME on Ahead [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] it is much brighter on Behind [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] this means it is traveling more on the Farsidesunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/12/2013 05:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like X-ray chart is in the low c range again. Let's keep this up!!!
Tiny Trink

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01/12/2013 07:35 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]



Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
psyoptics

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01/12/2013 08:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well now 1652 which was in decline has now reverse and growing slightly? right as it hit 0 degrees?....
is it gaining energies from 1654?
still 1654 is just coming in to the -60 +60 die off zone.
1654 wow what a huge area this is! but 1652/1653 is not small.
but still over all this has been quite a poor showing from as huge of sun spots as they are.
[link to www.solarham.net]
[link to www.solarham.net]
[link to www.solarham.net]
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is now directly Earth-facing and capable of producing strong flares and/or CMEs.
AR1652-
:1/12-1652:

AR1654 has grown slightly in the leading section. The trailing spot has morphed a bit and resembles a pentagon with a rough triangle umbra.
AR1654-
:1/12-1654:
AR1654 Magnetogram...Looks Delta To Me-
:1/12-1654mag:

AR1652 & AR1654 Remain Connected Electro-Magnetically-
:1652&54:

HMI pfss manetic field overlay image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA 171a-Latest Image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Aha! Finally, the smilies are ready. I fell asleep waiting for the X-flare,lol.

woo
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

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01/12/2013 08:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It has happened
Hundreds of thousands of dead fish reported on Masonboro Island

[link to www.wect.com]

abduct
Luke 18:8I tell you that he will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless when the Son of man cometh, shall he find faith on the earth?
psyoptics

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now what's going on here ???????

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:11013:

There's got to be something wrong with the satellite?? wouldn't you think.

Coordinated drops and spikes from temp, speed, and density ???

Bz wide open a couple of hours ago ??
 Quoting: TS66


TS i have found there are issues from time to time during the ground station change overs. now is it satellite transmitting or atmospheric???? but sometimes their is a bounce between the 2 ground stations....i would think this is the same as you are on our cell phone and driving...you are going from 1 cell tower to another...most of the time this is seamless...but sometimes............dropped call.

here is the ground tracking info...
48Hr
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
6Hr
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i can not find the aging chart for this...but it sure would be nice to back track and see how they match to data weirdness.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/12/2013 08:52 AM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hugh....
looking at this
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
i'd say 1652 is the one to be watching!!!!! and it is at 0 degrees now and regaining her power!
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 09:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now what's going on here ???????

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:11013:

There's got to be something wrong with the satellite?? wouldn't you think.

Coordinated drops and spikes from temp, speed, and density ???

Bz wide open a couple of hours ago ??
 Quoting: TS66


TS i have found there are issues from time to time during the ground station change overs. now is it satellite transmitting or atmospheric???? but sometimes their is a bounce between the 2 ground stations....i would think this is the same as you are on our cell phone and driving...you are going from 1 cell tower to another...most of the time this is seamless...but sometimes............dropped call.

here is the ground tracking info...
48Hr
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
6Hr
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i can not find the aging chart for this...but it sure would be nice to back track and see how they match to data weirdness.
 Quoting: psyoptics


You may be right Psy, it's as good as an explanation as any. I do not watch the ACE charts as intently as I do GOES unless I'm aware there is incoming solar activity, however I have check it at least a couple times a day for the last couple years or so.... and have never seen it before.

1dunno1
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well if it's any consolation to the sunnies here .... solar activity was greater prior to the flip that it was during. Maybe the down slope will find us some action also???

sun
shenue

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01/12/2013 10:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning all

:Kool Sun:
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning all

:Kool Sun:
 Quoting: shenue


Good afternoon from Cornwall!
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning all

:Kool Sun:
 Quoting: shenue


Good afternoon from Cornwall!
 Quoting: Elemental


That'll be 'Good Afternoon from Cornwall' : )

Hello Ele!

sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From NOAA's Discussion-

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1654 (N08E31) remained the
mostmagnetically complex region on the solar disk. It grew to an
estimated area of 1,100 millionths and although it separated somewhat,
maintained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
It produced an M1/1f
flare at 11/1507 UTC and impulsive Tenflare at 11/1845 UTC (330 sfu).
Region 1652 (N19W00) also grew while maintaining a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration,
but did not produce any flares. Region 1656 (N22E52)
developed to a Cro type Beta group, while Region 1657 (S17E23) decayed
to a simple Axx type Alpha group. A very slow moving coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 11/2024
UTC and in STEREO B COR2 imagery at 12/0010 UTC, but evaluation is
hampered by missing images. Further analysis is needed to determine the
potential geo-effectiveness of this CME.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

A few flares can be seen on the Cerro Tololo H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Slow-moving CME may have Earth-directed components:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1654 on Jan 10
165410

1654 on Jan 12
165412
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
psyoptics

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1654 on Jan 10
165410

1654 on Jan 12
165412
 Quoting: NiNzrez

OK time is up....
NASA and the like must be kicking around some theory about why for months now ALL ....ALL sun spots will die off and only some will regain their strength as they travel around the earth facing side.

any leaks to their thoughts?????

first i thought it was something from the back side pulling out more power and larger flare and CME's.
now it is very evident there is somethings pulling these spot down on the earth side.

would it be possible for massive magnetic fields to have effect completely thought the sun.
say like a field effecting the back side is so massive and strong it would pull right through the sun.
taking magnetic fields out the back side....merging with spots on the other side?
or even bouncing around in the outer layers of the sun???????

by all rights these spots 1652 to 1654 should have be popping of at least upper M to lower X flares.
still we are getting hyped up on upper C's (C's we would never even be talking about C1's and C2's) and when it is a M2....WOW???

now a massive spot like 1654 and we WOW over a M2?

sorry folks this is not anything but ODD.
though it is now NORMAL.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Da fuq

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01/12/2013 12:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1654 on Jan 10
165410

1654 on Jan 12
165412
 Quoting: NiNzrez

OK time is up....
NASA and the like must be kicking around some theory about why for months now ALL ....ALL sun spots will die off and only some will regain their strength as they travel around the earth facing side.

any leaks to their thoughts?????

first i thought it was something from the back side pulling out more power and larger flare and CME's.
now it is very evident there is somethings pulling these spot down on the earth side.

would it be possible for massive magnetic fields to have effect completely thought the sun.
say like a field effecting the back side is so massive and strong it would pull right through the sun.
taking magnetic fields out the back side....merging with spots on the other side?
or even bouncing around in the outer layers of the sun???????

by all rights these spots 1652 to 1654 should have be popping of at least upper M to lower X flares.
still we are getting hyped up on upper C's (C's we would never even be talking about C1's and C2's) and when it is a M2....WOW???

now a massive spot like 1654 and we WOW over a M2?

sorry folks this is not anything but ODD.
though it is now NORMAL.
 Quoting: psyoptics


Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!

This cycle is ending.
tesla99

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/12/2013 12:18 PM


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