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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
psyoptics

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01/12/2013 08:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2013 01 12 19:16:00 UTC
there was a burst of connection from 1654 to 1657

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

and here too
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: psyoptics


wtf is that bouncing around the sun atmosphere at the 10oclock position
 Quoting: NiNzrez

now it is connecting to 1650 through 1657

seems like it has connected 1654 to 1652
and 1654 to 1657 going on to 1650.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
WTF

Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/12/2013 08:10 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 08:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like 1652 is back !!
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
whiteangel

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01/12/2013 08:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought it was 1654...??
WAXmas3WAXmas20WAXmas3
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 08:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought it was 1654...??
 Quoting: whiteangel


Lasp updated already, can't see the signature anymore.
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 08:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/12/2013 08:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1652 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 08:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 09:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
?
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
whiteangel

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01/12/2013 09:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


Thank you hon!
WAXmas3WAXmas20WAXmas3
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
whiteangel

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01/12/2013 09:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


And you too SC!!
WAXmas3WAXmas20WAXmas3
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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01/12/2013 09:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1654 decaying slightly, still a "dominant threat".

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 13 Issued at 0030Z on 13 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 12 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 12/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1642 S25W84 253 0110 Hsx 03 01 Alpha
1644 N15W72 241 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1649 S16W35 204 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W30 199 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1652 N19W14 183 0210 Eai 13 16 Beta-Gamma
1653 N09W21 190 0010 Cao 01 02 Beta
1654 N08E18 151 0950 Fkc 17 31 Beta-Gamma
1655 S21W37 206 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta
1656 N22E39 130 0030 Cro 07 07 Beta

AR1654-
:1/13-1654:
NOAA Discussion-Solar Activity-
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been low. Region 1654 (N08E18) remains the dominant
threat, but showed slight decay in the past 24 hours.
1654 was
classified as an Fkc type spot group with an estimated area of 950
millionths and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The
largest event of the period was a C5 flare observed at 12/0224 UTC from
Region 1654. No earthward directed coronal mass ejections were
observed.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1652-M1 Flare-

Solarsoft close-up movie of M1 flare:
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

:1/13-Mflare:
Corn Dog

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01/12/2013 10:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Saw the report on Drudge but had to come here to get the real facts. Thanks all for the great info, I can always count on getting the real scoop without the hype.
hf
shenue

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01/12/2013 10:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace

:GetInBedSmilie:

Thank you all for the information you bring to this thread every day!!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Hugh M Eye

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01/12/2013 11:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace

:GetInBedSmilie:

Thank you all for the information you bring to this thread every day!!
 Quoting: shenue


God night and sweet dreams to you, shenue.

The Solar Winds are blowin' a bit stronger tonight.

ACE SW data:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


Sorry, 62% of an M (57% for X is correct)
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

67%M/69%X
I have never seen it that high.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/12/2013 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


AR1654 Monster

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01/12/2013 11:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


It was updated about an hour ago (03:30 UTC)
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


AWESOME!!! Thanks! hf

I was going to ask you if you filmed it but I just saw the thread you made. So cool!
Isis One

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01/12/2013 11:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Woowhoooo, good job Geo, nice to see a little homegrown!!! Can make out filaments and everything, thanks.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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01/13/2013 12:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Everyone, been offline most of the day, except for checking spaceweather.com couple times. Nin, the sunspot archive link was interesting, had some big spots 1946-1950. Thanks everyone for the excellent work today.

good
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/13/2013 12:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Woowhoooo, good job Geo, nice to see a little homegrown!!! Can make out filaments and everything, thanks.
 Quoting: Isis One


Thanks
NiNzrez
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01/13/2013 12:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1654 and 1652 loose size, but NOAA increases the % chance for both M & X flares

Event % probabilities
Jan 13 - Jan 15
65% Chance for M Flares
10% Chance for X Flares
NiNzrez
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01/13/2013 12:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Everyone, been offline most of the day, except for checking spaceweather.com couple times. Nin, the sunspot archive link was interesting, had some big spots 1946-1950. Thanks everyone for the excellent work today.

:good:
 Quoting: Isis One


:)
AR1654 Monster

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01/13/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


Perfect! Thanks. I need some coffee :)
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


They retrieve the images every two minutes but they only run the model periodically (and not on a set schedule). The ASAP model run time-stamp is in the beige bar below the sun. You will notice that the flare probabilities only change when the time-stamp changes.
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 02:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Impulsive C2.7 flare may have been from 1652.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha movie:


[link to halpha.nso.edu]

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