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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

67%M/69%X
I have never seen it that high.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/12/2013 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


AR1654 Monster

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01/12/2013 11:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


It was updated about an hour ago (03:30 UTC)
Anonymous Coward
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01/12/2013 11:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


AWESOME!!! Thanks! hf

I was going to ask you if you filmed it but I just saw the thread you made. So cool!
Isis One

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01/12/2013 11:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Woowhoooo, good job Geo, nice to see a little homegrown!!! Can make out filaments and everything, thanks.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Isis One

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01/13/2013 12:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Everyone, been offline most of the day, except for checking spaceweather.com couple times. Nin, the sunspot archive link was interesting, had some big spots 1946-1950. Thanks everyone for the excellent work today.

good
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/13/2013 12:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Woowhoooo, good job Geo, nice to see a little homegrown!!! Can make out filaments and everything, thanks.
 Quoting: Isis One


Thanks
NiNzrez
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01/13/2013 12:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1654 and 1652 loose size, but NOAA increases the % chance for both M & X flares

Event % probabilities
Jan 13 - Jan 15
65% Chance for M Flares
10% Chance for X Flares
NiNzrez
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01/13/2013 12:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Everyone, been offline most of the day, except for checking spaceweather.com couple times. Nin, the sunspot archive link was interesting, had some big spots 1946-1950. Thanks everyone for the excellent work today.

:good:
 Quoting: Isis One


:)
AR1654 Monster

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01/13/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


Perfect! Thanks. I need some coffee :)
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


They retrieve the images every two minutes but they only run the model periodically (and not on a set schedule). The ASAP model run time-stamp is in the beige bar below the sun. You will notice that the flare probabilities only change when the time-stamp changes.
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 02:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Impulsive C2.7 flare may have been from 1652.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha movie:


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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01/13/2013 03:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
Isis One

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01/13/2013 03:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 03:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


you have the 1min for the fulx?
1min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
5min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 04:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 04:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Nice catch, GeoStorm! I loved yer movie, too! On the SDO movie you can see an eruption over the west limb and several regions flare at the same time. The M1.7 definitely came from 1652 though.

H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO Image of NW limb eruption preceding M-flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Isis One

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01/13/2013 04:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Oh, thank you very much NiN, all this time here, I did not know that.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Isis One

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01/13/2013 04:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 04:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That's cool, thank you. I have learned so much from this thread!

I have a question for you in light of what's been going on lately. If a spot flares, like a few C's or M's in a row, does that tend to "weaken" it, meaning it is less likely to let off a big one? Or does it not matter and is just random?
Kael

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01/13/2013 06:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

So we do have a CME :)

[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 06:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

So we do have a CME :)

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


Hi, Kael, I don't see anything major yet, but it's best to wait for SOHO/ LASCO imagery. Here's a link for STEREO: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

There was also a Type IV Radio Emission alert-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 400
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 0918 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0845 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:1652-sam:
:1/13-NWlimb:
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 06:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
....now saying
66% chance X
63% chance M
anon
Tiny Trink

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01/13/2013 07:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 07:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
 Quoting: Isis One


Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 07:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning Tink and all hf
Tiny Trink

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01/13/2013 07:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning Tink and all hf
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS!

hugs

Much Love,
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Kael

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Romania
01/13/2013 07:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

AIA171
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"


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