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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Everyone, been offline most of the day, except for checking spaceweather.com couple times. Nin, the sunspot archive link was interesting, had some big spots 1946-1950. Thanks everyone for the excellent work today.

:good:
 Quoting: Isis One


:)
AR1654 Monster

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01/13/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


Perfect! Thanks. I need some coffee :)
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 01:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bradford updated and gave 1654 a 52% for an M and 57% for an X!!

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


I wonder if those are based on older images though. Maybe those probabilities are based on imagery from before the M flare earlier.
 Quoting: AR1654 Monster


fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


They retrieve the images every two minutes but they only run the model periodically (and not on a set schedule). The ASAP model run time-stamp is in the beige bar below the sun. You will notice that the flare probabilities only change when the time-stamp changes.
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 02:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Impulsive C2.7 flare may have been from 1652.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha movie:


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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01/13/2013 03:52 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
Isis One

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01/13/2013 03:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 03:59 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


you have the 1min for the fulx?
1min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
5min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 04:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 04:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Nice catch, GeoStorm! I loved yer movie, too! On the SDO movie you can see an eruption over the west limb and several regions flare at the same time. The M1.7 definitely came from 1652 though.

H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO Image of NW limb eruption preceding M-flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Isis One

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01/13/2013 04:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Oh, thank you very much NiN, all this time here, I did not know that.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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01/13/2013 04:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 04:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That's cool, thank you. I have learned so much from this thread!

I have a question for you in light of what's been going on lately. If a spot flares, like a few C's or M's in a row, does that tend to "weaken" it, meaning it is less likely to let off a big one? Or does it not matter and is just random?
Kael

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01/13/2013 06:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

So we do have a CME :)

[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 06:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

So we do have a CME :)

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: Kael


Hi, Kael, I don't see anything major yet, but it's best to wait for SOHO/ LASCO imagery. Here's a link for STEREO: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

There was also a Type IV Radio Emission alert-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 400
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 0918 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0845 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:1652-sam:
:1/13-NWlimb:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 06:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
....now saying
66% chance X
63% chance M
anon
Tiny Trink

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01/13/2013 07:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 07:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
 Quoting: Isis One


Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 07:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning Tink and all hf
Tiny Trink

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01/13/2013 07:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning Tink and all hf
 Quoting: TS66


Good Morning TS!

hugs

Much Love,
Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Kael

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01/13/2013 07:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

AIA171
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 08:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Suns waking up today:)
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 08:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
@hugh and TS:

judging by the xray image from eve: [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

would you wager on 1652, or 1654 being the main candidate for the alert?

Just curious as to your opinion, if the information is not available yet.
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 08:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
@hugh and TS:

judging by the xray image from eve: [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

would you wager on 1652, or 1654 being the main candidate for the alert?

Just curious as to your opinion, if the information is not available yet.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


LASP certainly is lit up in those 2 areas, and would account for the consistent C background.

Both areas seem to have a lot of potential, whether their potential comes to fruition or not is the real question.

Both have complexity, and with some development both could return to BGDs

Although I can't speak for Hugh, these are the areas I'm watching, including what may become a delta spot on 1654 with a little more development(southern center area of spot)

1654

:11354:

and 1652

:11352:
mtn_mang

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01/13/2013 10:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning, team!
Luisport

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01/13/2013 10:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning, team!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hf Hi my friend how are you?
mtn_mang

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01/13/2013 10:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning, team!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hf Hi my friend how are you?
 Quoting: Luisport


Fantastic, thank you!

Enjoying 70 degree (F) weather today, unusual for the mountainous regions of WV in winter but I welcome it.

How u doing, Luis?
Luisport

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01/13/2013 11:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
good morning, team!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hf Hi my friend how are you?
 Quoting: Luisport


Fantastic, thank you!

Enjoying 70 degree (F) weather today, unusual for the mountainous regions of WV in winter but I welcome it.

How u doing, Luis?
 Quoting: mtn_mang


I'm fine! Thank God the arctic cold weather missed us and go to UK... more showers but mild temp!hf
shadasonic

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01/13/2013 11:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
 Quoting: Isis One


It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 11:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions..

1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be?

2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype?
AR1654 Monster

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01/13/2013 11:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions..

1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be?

2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28236632


Not all X-class flares are equal. For example, an X1 will be more common than an X20 and so on. Also, not all flares produce CME's (coronal mass ejections). These ejections are what can really mess with out geomagnetic field and cause big geomagnetic storms.

This is the short answer. Theoretically...two M class flares that produce big CME's could do more damage than two X-class flares that do not produce CME's. All about the CME in a lot of cases. Although, you can still get other impacts from non-CME flares (radio blackouts and such).

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