SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

1654 and 1652 loose size, but NOAA increases the % chance for both M & X flares

Event % probabilities
Jan 13 - Jan 15
65% Chance for M Flares
10% Chance for X Flares

fromdirectly below the solar flare model on the site

"How does flare monitor work?
Our agent program "SPIDER" connects to the SDO website every two minutes to search for the new HMI images and download them to our server.

These images are then processed using "ASAP" to automatically detect, group and then classify the sunspot groups and calculate their flaring probabilities.

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

:)

Perfect! Thanks. I need some coffee :)

They retrieve the images every two minutes but they only run the model periodically (and not on a set schedule). The ASAP model run time-stamp is in the beige bar below the sun. You will notice that the flare probabilities only change when the time-stamp changes.

Impulsive C2.7 flare may have been from 1652.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

H-alpha movie:


[link to halpha.nso.edu]

M1.7 Sunspot 1652

[link to www.solarham.net]

Any CME's with those flares?

you have the 1min for the fulx?
1min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
5min chart [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it

Nice catch, GeoStorm! I loved yer movie, too! On the SDO movie you can see an eruption over the west limb and several regions flare at the same time. The M1.7 definitely came from 1652 though.

H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO Image of NW limb eruption preceding M-flare:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Oh, thank you very much NiN, all this time here, I did not know that.

52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.

That's cool, thank you. I have learned so much from this thread!

I have a question for you in light of what's been going on lately. If a spot flares, like a few C's or M's in a row, does that tend to "weaken" it, meaning it is less likely to let off a big one? Or does it not matter and is just random?

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0839 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 907 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

So we do have a CME :)

[link to www.solarham.net]

Hi, Kael, I don't see anything major yet, but it's best to wait for SOHO/ LASCO imagery. Here's a link for STEREO: [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

There was also a Type IV Radio Emission alert-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 400
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 0918 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Jan 13 0845 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
:1652-sam:
:1/13-NWlimb:

[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
....now saying
66% chance X
63% chance M

Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!

Morning Tink and all

Good Morning TS!



Much Love,

AIA171

Suns waking up today:)

@hugh and TS:

judging by the xray image from eve: [link to lasp.colorado.edu]

would you wager on 1652, or 1654 being the main candidate for the alert?

Just curious as to your opinion, if the information is not available yet.

LASP certainly is lit up in those 2 areas, and would account for the consistent C background.

Both areas seem to have a lot of potential, whether their potential comes to fruition or not is the real question.

Both have complexity, and with some development both could return to BGDs

Although I can't speak for Hugh, these are the areas I'm watching, including what may become a delta spot on 1654 with a little more development(southern center area of spot)

1654

:11354:

and 1652

:11352:

Last Edited by TS66 on 01/13/2013 08:59 AM

good morning, team!

Hi my friend how are you?

Fantastic, thank you!

Enjoying 70 degree (F) weather today, unusual for the mountainous regions of WV in winter but I welcome it.

How u doing, Luis?

I'm fine! Thank God the arctic cold weather missed us and go to UK... more showers but mild temp!

It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined