SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions..

1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be?

2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype?

Not all X-class flares are equal. For example, an X1 will be more common than an X20 and so on. Also, not all flares produce CME's (coronal mass ejections). These ejections are what can really mess with out geomagnetic field and cause big geomagnetic storms.

This is the short answer. Theoretically...two M class flares that produce big CME's could do more damage than two X-class flares that do not produce CME's. All about the CME in a lot of cases. Although, you can still get other impacts from non-CME flares (radio blackouts and such).

there is a lot of study done on this subject
often, we do see a large M flare or X flare occure that causes a complex section of the sunspot to become more stable after the flare and then we see the sunspot calm down
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
this is the main reason, that after a high M or X flare, you will see some of us talking about the area and complecity of the sunspot.
we do not see this happen much with C flares, they are more of a ramping up of the sunspot, so to speak

Well I'm certainly not looking for doom, just the science behind solar max

Thanks for your interest and inquiries...

The second question first....I'm not hyping anything. I have no idea why Drudge Report has a story on an M-flare w/no CME. Maybe he's been listening to the Suspicious Obfuscator's vids, hehe. We haven't had any noteworthy solar events of the "front page news" variety for some time. This is a passionate hobby of mine; it's good, clean fun, and educational, too.

Now the first question-we watch every kind of flare and other solar happenings. Active Region 1654 is one of the largest sunspot groups of the Solar Cycle 24. We haven't seen any X-flares for some months, so we're very excited at the possibility. Entire books have been written on the effects of X-Ray solar events and Coronal Mass Ejections, so I can't say too much at this time. In general, X-flares can cause radio blackouts, disrupt GPS, increase radiation exposure by flight crews and astronauts.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are a different animal altogether;a large number of effects on Earth range from: auroral displays to power grid failure; satellite outages; heart attacks and strokes; spacecraft damage; insanity and the end of comet Elenin. Keep in mind that extreme solar events can't be predicted, this is why we stay vigilant here.

Some good links for solar event education:

Perfect Storm- [link to spectrum.ieee.org]

SunStorm!- [link to www.space.com]

Marshall SFC Solar Physics- [link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]

in the last few hours, there is 2 tiny fast spots popping up inbetween 1654 and 1652. you can see it on the SDO magnetogram movie for today
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/13/2013 12:24 PM

Hang out here for a couple of weeks. You'll pick up real quick on what is all hype and what needs to be watched. The daily crew posting here is way ahead of the curve. Nasa wishes they had these guys. I think they actually lurk here to find out what is going on.

Sun Crew ROCKS !!! Thanks again guys and gals !

thanks for the replies to my questions..so then is there a high chance that we will be seeing a x-flare or CME (or both if they go hand-in-hand sometime)in the near future? or do we just not know yet?

Possibly an Earth-directed element to this CME. I'm not sure if it's from the west limb eruption or the M-flare. SOHO is missing 10 hours of data.

STEREO A movie of CME:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Is NASA mocking us, LOL:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nah, couldn't be that one, haha.

Hugh, do you remember that article you found on cosmic rays?

I then made a thread on it where you and a lot of people from here commented on it.

It was top thread for the week and even beat The glp christmas give a way in views. *(last I checked was around 46k in 8 days)

Yeah they took it away.

It had about 120 fivestars too and karma pinned like 4 times, not once did a pos mod pin it.

Fuck trin or whoever took it down. The truth hurts

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:23 PM

Thank you Fedex,....

Very interesting.




Z

one point of concern regarding x flares and cme's is that presently the earths magnetosphere is weak, (looking even possible magnetic pole reversal maybe?) which increases chances of system damage more probable if get an earth facing blast . whether thats likely in this weak sun cycle or we got something in store yet, is to be seen (thankfully theres ppl here that post and watch, respect to all work efforts, i'd be lost without it for one!)

,,regarding chances of cme's etc -this gives indicator -but imo prefer the judgements here : )
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?


*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense. One of my main concerns is I believe the Sun or other cosmic source is driving this weather. Global warming is TPTB fabricated b.s lies.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:30 PM

i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?

Wow that sucks, i'm not a big weather guy so it may be normal for all I know. The gulf jet seems to be mixing with cold air near EU and forming a large storm shape in the middle of the Atlantic. With all strange weather going on and our sun behaving odd as well I think there is a connection to be made.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:34 PM

Wow!

Thank you GM - That was pretty amazing Bro'

I'm going to have to try and train my Reflector onto the Sun sometime also,what Filters do you use,just the standard 'Sun Filter'?

Hello all by the way

I've just come online so I'm just back-checking for a few Minutes,hope you are all fine and dandy : )

Well all this crazy weather is linked with the ssw event and polar vortex collapse... you can see it here: Thread: ARCTIC BLAST COMMING !!! Feb 5 may be coldest since 1996!!! Thread: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!! Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!

Certainly closing in the void.... It would be awesome to see significant development between the two before rotating out .

Thanks for the links, The sun plays a huge role in the collapse of the vortex yes?

well, sun activity has a major rule on our planet's weather... the break of PV can be linked with too...

FYI - Just being picky here but it is called the "sub-tropical jet" not the "gulf jet"

This time of year bit vortex features are common.

Last Edited by AR1654 Monster on 01/13/2013 01:48 PM

[link to www.messagetoeagle.com]

[link to jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.pt]

I take it we have noted this CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] does anyone know if that was more farside or not?

If it wasn't behind the limb then that general direction(Mid-Left of screen)is more or less Earth facing and this baby could be partly ours - Is this the same CME mentioned earlier,anyone!?

It seems that there is a increase in solar wind speed, density and temperature. Did we expect a CH wind stream or a weak CME?
[link to www.solarham.net]

Howdy, Da fuq, do you mean this thread here?-

Thread: THIS IS IT ... The reason for all the extreme weather across the world, plus every other anomaly currently happening.

It's not in my active threads or under threads posted by me, weird.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 02:24 PM

[link to www.messagetoeagle.com]

Thread: Huge flashring radar in North Platte, Nebraska


any ideas on what is on radar????thanks

maby this tstorm line? Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!