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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 12:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Any CME's with those flares?
 Quoting: Isis One


more than likley there wont be

as a rule of thumb:
when the Xrays spike straight up, then right away goes straight back down = No CME

when the xray flux goes up, slow or spiked (dont really matter) and then lingers there a bit and SLOWLY comes back down = sig for a CME

thats the best way to get an idea if there is or is not a CME before images come out showing it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


That's cool, thank you. I have learned so much from this thread!

I have a question for you in light of what's been going on lately. If a spot flares, like a few C's or M's in a row, does that tend to "weaken" it, meaning it is less likely to let off a big one? Or does it not matter and is just random?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 25323670


there is a lot of study done on this subject
often, we do see a large M flare or X flare occure that causes a complex section of the sunspot to become more stable after the flare and then we see the sunspot calm down
[link to adsabs.harvard.edu]
this is the main reason, that after a high M or X flare, you will see some of us talking about the area and complecity of the sunspot.
we do not see this happen much with C flares, they are more of a ramping up of the sunspot, so to speak
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 12:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well I'm certainly not looking for doom, just the science behind solar max hf
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 12:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions..

1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be?

2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28236632


Thanks for your interest and inquiries...

The second question first....I'm not hyping anything. I have no idea why Drudge Report has a story on an M-flare w/no CME. Maybe he's been listening to the Suspicious Obfuscator's vids, hehe. We haven't had any noteworthy solar events of the "front page news" variety for some time. This is a passionate hobby of mine; it's good, clean fun, and educational, too.

Now the first question-we watch every kind of flare and other solar happenings. Active Region 1654 is one of the largest sunspot groups of the Solar Cycle 24. We haven't seen any X-flares for some months, so we're very excited at the possibility. Entire books have been written on the effects of X-Ray solar events and Coronal Mass Ejections, so I can't say too much at this time. In general, X-flares can cause radio blackouts, disrupt GPS, increase radiation exposure by flight crews and astronauts.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are a different animal altogether;a large number of effects on Earth range from: auroral displays to power grid failure; satellite outages; heart attacks and strokes; spacecraft damage; insanity and the end of comet Elenin. Keep in mind that extreme solar events can't be predicted, this is why we stay vigilant here.

Some good links for solar event education:

Perfect Storm- [link to spectrum.ieee.org]

SunStorm!- [link to www.space.com]

Marshall SFC Solar Physics- [link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

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01/13/2013 12:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
in the last few hours, there is 2 tiny fast spots popping up inbetween 1654 and 1652. you can see it on the SDO magnetogram movie for today
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 01/13/2013 12:24 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
AC 5341

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01/13/2013 12:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I don't know a lot about this stuff but it does interest me. I have been following for a while and have couple questions..

1- so are you guys looking for an x-class here? let's say we were to have one..what would the implications be?

2- it seems that x-class flares are not too uncommon so what is the hype?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28236632


Hang out here for a couple of weeks. You'll pick up real quick on what is all hype and what needs to be watched. The daily crew posting here is way ahead of the curve. Nasa wishes they had these guys. I think they actually lurk here to find out what is going on.

Sun Crew ROCKS !!! Thanks again guys and gals !
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 12:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks for the replies to my questions..so then is there a high chance that we will be seeing a x-flare or CME (or both if they go hand-in-hand sometime)in the near future? or do we just not know yet?
Fedex12

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01/13/2013 12:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Fedex
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 12:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Possibly an Earth-directed element to this CME. I'm not sure if it's from the west limb eruption or the M-flare. SOHO is missing 10 hours of data.

STEREO A movie of CME:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Is NASA mocking us, LOL:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Nah, couldn't be that one, haha.

explosionahhh
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Da fuq

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01/13/2013 01:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh, do you remember that article you found on cosmic rays?

I then made a thread on it where you and a lot of people from here commented on it.

It was top thread for the week and even beat The glp christmas give a way in views. *(last I checked was around 46k in 8 days)

Yeah they took it away. verysad

It had about 120 fivestars too and karma pinned like 4 times, not once did a pos mod pin it.

Fuck trin or whoever took it down. The truth hurts lala

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:23 PM
zacksavage
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01/13/2013 01:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Fedex12


Thank you Fedex,....

Very interesting.




Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 01:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks for the replies to my questions..so then is there a high chance that we will be seeing a x-flare or CME (or both if they go hand-in-hand sometime)in the near future? or do we just not know yet?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28236632


one point of concern regarding x flares and cme's is that presently the earths magnetosphere is weak, (looking even possible magnetic pole reversal maybe?) which increases chances of system damage more probable if get an earth facing blast . whether thats likely in this weak sun cycle or we got something in store yet, is to be seen (thankfully theres ppl here that post and watch, respect to all work efforts, i'd be lost without it for one!)

,,regarding chances of cme's etc -this gives indicator -but imo prefer the judgements here : )
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
Da fuq

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01/13/2013 01:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense. One of my main concerns is I believe the Sun or other cosmic source is driving this weather. Global warming is TPTB fabricated b.s lies.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:30 PM
Luisport

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01/13/2013 01:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense.
 Quoting: Da fuq


i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?
Da fuq

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01/13/2013 01:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense.
 Quoting: Da fuq


i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow that sucks, i'm not a big weather guy so it may be normal for all I know. The gulf jet seems to be mixing with cold air near EU and forming a large storm shape in the middle of the Atlantic. With all strange weather going on and our sun behaving odd as well I think there is a connection to be made.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 01:34 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 01:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here you guys go :)


 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Wow!

Thank you GM - That was pretty amazing Bro'sun

I'm going to have to try and train my Reflector onto the Sun sometime also,what Filters do you use,just the standard 'Sun Filter'?

Hello all by the waywater

I've just come online so I'm just back-checking for a few Minutes,hope you are all fine and dandy : )

grin and b
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Luisport

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01/13/2013 01:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense.
 Quoting: Da fuq


i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow that sucks, I'm not a weather guy so it may be normal for all I know. The gulf jet seems to be mixing with cold air near EU and forming a large storm shape in the middle of the Atlantic. With all strange weather going on and our sun behaving odd as well I think there is a connection to be made.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Well all this crazy weather is linked with the ssw event and polar vortex collapse... you can see it here: Thread: ARCTIC BLAST COMMING !!! Feb 5 may be coldest since 1996!!! Thread: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!! Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 01:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
in the last few hours, there is 2 tiny fast spots popping up inbetween 1654 and 1652. you can see it on the SDO magnetogram movie for today
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Certainly closing in the void.... It would be awesome to see significant development between the two before rotating out .
Da fuq

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01/13/2013 01:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense.
 Quoting: Da fuq


i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow that sucks, I'm not a weather guy so it may be normal for all I know. The gulf jet seems to be mixing with cold air near EU and forming a large storm shape in the middle of the Atlantic. With all strange weather going on and our sun behaving odd as well I think there is a connection to be made.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Well all this crazy weather is linked with the ssw event and polar vortex collapse... you can see it here: Thread: ARCTIC BLAST COMMING !!! Feb 5 may be coldest since 1996!!! Thread: 2013 Polar Vortex Collapsing; Complete Disintegration Possible!!! US, North Europe, Midle East Hit!!! Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!
 Quoting: Luisport

Thanks for the links, The sun plays a huge role in the collapse of the vortex yes?
Luisport

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01/13/2013 01:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well, sun activity has a major rule on our planet's weather... the break of PV can be linked with too...
AR1654 Monster

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01/13/2013 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.ssd.noaa.gov]

Luis, what is your take on this?

Further collapse/change to the jet stream? Or?
spock

*I know this is the Sun thread but I know I can find Luis here.

So many storms/tornado's in the south, its 25 where i'm at in cali and 60 back home in Ohio. None of this weather makes any sense.
 Quoting: Da fuq


i can't open the link, i'm sorry, what is it?
 Quoting: Luisport


Wow that sucks, i'm not a big weather guy so it may be normal for all I know. The gulf jet seems to be mixing with cold air near EU and forming a large storm shape in the middle of the Atlantic. With all strange weather going on and our sun behaving odd as well I think there is a connection to be made.
 Quoting: Da fuq


FYI - Just being picky here but it is called the "sub-tropical jet" not the "gulf jet"

This time of year bit vortex features are common.

Last Edited by AR1654 Monster on 01/13/2013 01:48 PM
Cosmogenesis12

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01/13/2013 01:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
well, sun activity has a major rule on our planet's weather... the break of PV can be linked with too...
 Quoting: Luisport


[link to www.messagetoeagle.com]

[link to jumpingjackflashhypothesis.blogspot.pt]
Time is Art

WE ARE ONE

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
/cosmogenesis777

www.cosmogenesis21122012.blogspot.com

ONE​NESS
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Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 01:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I take it we have noted this CME [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] does anyone know if that was more farside or not?

If it wasn't behind the limb then that general direction(Mid-Left of screen)is more or less Earth facing and this baby could be partly ours - Is this the same CME mentioned earlier,anyone!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Kael

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01/13/2013 01:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It seems that there is a increase in solar wind speed, density and temperature. Did we expect a CH wind stream or a weak CME?
[link to www.solarham.net]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 02:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh, do you remember that article you found on cosmic rays?

I then made a thread on it where you and a lot of people from here commented on it.

It was top thread for the week and even beat The glp christmas give a way in views. *(last I checked was around 46k in 8 days)

Yeah they took it away. verysad

It had about 120 fivestars too and karma pinned like 4 times, not once did a pos mod pin it.

Fuck trin or whoever took it down. The truth hurts lala
 Quoting: Da fuq


Howdy, Da fuq, do you mean this thread here?-

Thread: THIS IS IT ... The reason for all the extreme weather across the world, plus every other anomaly currently happening.

drevil
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Da fuq

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01/13/2013 02:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh, do you remember that article you found on cosmic rays?

I then made a thread on it where you and a lot of people from here commented on it.

It was top thread for the week and even beat The glp christmas give a way in views. *(last I checked was around 46k in 8 days)

Yeah they took it away. verysad

It had about 120 fivestars too and karma pinned like 4 times, not once did a pos mod pin it.

Fuck trin or whoever took it down. The truth hurts lala
 Quoting: Da fuq


Howdy, Da fuq, do you mean this thread here?-

Thread: THIS IS IT ... The reason for all the extreme weather across the world, plus every other anomaly currently happening.

drevil
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


It's not in my active threads or under threads posted by me, weird.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/13/2013 02:24 PM
Cosmogenesis12

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01/13/2013 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh, do you remember that article you found on cosmic rays?

I then made a thread on it where you and a lot of people from here commented on it.

It was top thread for the week and even beat The glp christmas give a way in views. *(last I checked was around 46k in 8 days)

Yeah they took it away. verysad

It had about 120 fivestars too and karma pinned like 4 times, not once did a pos mod pin it.

Fuck trin or whoever took it down. The truth hurts lala
 Quoting: Da fuq


Howdy, Da fuq, do you mean this thread here?-

Thread: THIS IS IT ... The reason for all the extreme weather across the world, plus every other anomaly currently happening.

drevil
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


It's not in my active threads or under threads posted by me, weird.
 Quoting: Da fuq


[link to www.messagetoeagle.com]
Time is Art

WE ARE ONE

[link to twitter.com (secure)]
/cosmogenesis777

www.cosmogenesis21122012.blogspot.com

ONE​NESS
[link to profile.myspace.com]
Goofy for God
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01/13/2013 03:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Huge flashring radar in North Platte, Nebraska


any ideas on what is on radar????thanks
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Luisport

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01/13/2013 03:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Huge flashring radar in North Platte, Nebraska


any ideas on what is on radar????thanks
 Quoting: Goofy for God


maby this tstorm line? Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!
Goofy for God
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01/13/2013 03:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Huge flashring radar in North Platte, Nebraska


any ideas on what is on radar????thanks
 Quoting: Goofy for God


maby this tstorm line? Thread: Real nasty complex of storms in NE LA/ S MS, multiple tornado warnings!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


but nothing on radar???
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 03:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
INCOMING CME-
New NASA Cone Model shows direct hit @ Earth of small CME!

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

:1/13cone:
explosionahhhabomb

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 03:18 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein