SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

but nothing on radar???

INCOMING CME-
New NASA Cone Model shows direct hit @ Earth of small CME!

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

:1/13cone:


Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 03:18 PM

small but very intense

Just spray those pesky sunspots away with new UBIK Aerosol.

[link to swrl.njit.edu]

AR1654 is now stepping into the center-stage spotlight and will be directly Earth-facing for the next few days. Weakening or not, this is one huge sunspot; and I have a hunch he's been waiting to line us up for X. I'm not sure what kind of ruler they use to measure solar millionths, but I use the GLP Smilie unit of measure. Today my pic of 1654 was over the pixel-weight limit, so I had to shave it down to fit. In other words this AR is still elongating.
Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HMI Magnetic Fields:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

No Introduction Necessary-
:1654-1/13:

Our new friend (1658?) in the South-
:1658?:

It be this one [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I am sure : )

Like I said earlier... hang out here and read. Hugh called the Earth bound CME before the model was posted !

CME Arrival Time Forecast for January 16.

Event Issue Date: 2013-01-13 14:37:44.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-01-16 19:21:22.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 11 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO A Cor2difference image of Earthbound CME:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO A movie:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

STEREO B movie:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Earthbound CME (Stereo A diff. image w/tweaked color values)
:1/13CMEc2a:

Saved webcam image from northern Sweden right now: [link to img836.imageshack.us] [link to www.auroraskystation.com] rel= [link to www.auroraskystation.com]

DAFQ....
if you do not post on a thread it will fall off our active threads even if they are still active....
they are not active for you....when you are not active with them.
i find if i want to keep a thread to check in on...either randomly bump or place it in your fav's.
the later will keep it till you remove it.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/13/2013 04:52 PM

Yes, nice find, thanks Luisport! I forgot about our coronal hole windstream. Solar wind velocity has climbed to 500+km/sec.. Here's the current ACE data plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Fluxx disturbed:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

like I said from now till July we will rotate to where all that backside activity has been...

the backside activity comes fron the energy comming from the center of our galaxy....

the western limb is just getting a taste of it now....

unlike most of you I step away from my computer and listen to mother earth and the galaxy above... wow the stuff I have seen with no city lights to block my imagination....

wicked awesome meteors december 12 2012..one flashed in the sky 3 time lighting up all the surounding mountains....

blue wind blowing over the moon december 20 to january 3...

wild hum/vibration heard at my home since january 27 2012 and increasing in strength every day...

and so on and on and on...

you guys are awesome cause you stick to your computers and confirm everything I see....

here is my theory, only had a couple reply's from the sungods, wish there were more.....

Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!

Good point. I wonder too, if its high latitude has something to do with it. 1654 is lower and may still decay, but that would be a significant if latitude is a variable.

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 05:04 PM

A New Englander!

Hello Luvly : )

I am sure you must have it already but just incase -

No filter. Just the Coronado pst. It comes with everything. But a sun filter will give you good shots of sunspots.

Last Edited by #Geomagnetic_Storm# on 01/13/2013 05:17 PM

Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks

Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated

Solar wind
speed: 504.0 km/sec
density: 3.3 protons/cm3


winds really picked up since am

[link to spaceweather.com]

Last Edited by Goofy for God on 01/13/2013 06:00 PM

Confusion reigns.

I can see two on EUVI Ahead,one that starts in the North-West that appears to have something pop with it below around Mid-Disc and the other in the extreme South-East [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] ,can anyone see anything else?

so Slar ham heliosphric graphhics are not right?


or did we missed somethin here on the thread?


there were mentioned before a earlier cme could be geoefective...
but how come an earlier CME arrives after... an after one
no way
no doubt
some confusion... or miss data

I see a small cme from the south western quad at 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on the 3 day vid. The other big cme's on the 10 and 11 do not seem earthdirected to me.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:43 PM

OK, I think there was a glancing blow from one of those big blasts (on 10th or 11th), so that's probably the cme due on the 16th. So that just leaves the cme due on the 18th coming from where? I don't read solarham so not sure I can figure it out from there.

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:42 PM

NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science.

Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism.

Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less.

CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt.
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 06:49 PM

Next question, I've never seen the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere page have almost the entire globe lit up orange. Can someone give me a brief description to what these models mean? I'm assuming it is a representation of the magnetic charge of the ionosphere? How does this relate to the physical magnetic poles of the planet? Is the current orange hemisphere model usual for whatever the current (coronal hole stream hitting?) space weather conditions are?

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

And it just updated, major looking changes. Go back one frame to see the orange. Now it is "normal colored", but with many connecting magnetic "lines".

The charge scale changed significantly...

Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 06:54 PM

There are some awesome Anomalies on COR2 Ahead starting on the 5th January that are included in this video,I don't subscribe to the video producers notions but do think these are incredible -


[link to www.youtube.com]

The chap sounds very,very stoned.

(Disclaimer:Drugs are Bad)