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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 07:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Edit:Scuse' moi!

Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] !

Looking ready to let one go if you ask me.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/13/2013 07:23 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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01/13/2013 07:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Edit:Scuse' moi!

Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] !

Looking ready to let one go if you ask me.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks for your excellent eagle eye (I may go spotting tomorrow if its nice). I did see the northern one. Yes, if that bridge blows, Hugh may get the piggyback cme's.


Also interesting, how much brighter/active 52 looks than 54, I see couple bright spots coming over the limb also.

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 07:46 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 07:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2036
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Jan 14 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 07:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Edit:Scuse' moi!

Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] !

Looking ready to let one go if you ask me.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks for your excellent eagle eye (I may go spotting tomorrow if its nice). I did see the northern one. Yes, if that bridge blows, Hugh may get the piggyback cme's.


Also interesting, how much brighter/active 52 looks than 54, I see couple bright spots coming over the limb also.
 Quoting: Isis One


First Light on the new region cresting the East limb [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 07:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2036
Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Jan 14 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


CHS I hear.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 08:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA Discussion forecasts CME arrival on 1/17 @21:00z (more than 24 hrs. later than NASA'a forecast)-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1652 (N19W28) produced the
largest event of the previous 24 hours, an M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC with
a Type II radio sweep estimated at 649 km/s. Region 1652, a Cao-type
spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, continued to decay.
Region 1654 (N08E04), an Fkc-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration, remained the most threatening region on the solar disk,
but showed slight decay in its intermediate spots. Newly-numbered
Region 1658 (S12E63) was a simple Cso-type, beta spot group. An

earthward directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on STEREO
Ahead/Behind imagery, as well as LASCO C2 imagery, starting at 13/0938
UTC. The CME was associated with the M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC from
Region 1652.
An initial ENLIL model run indicated that the CME will
likely impact Earth at approximately 17/2100 UTC based on a speed
estimate of 371 km/s
.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare for days one, two, and three (14 - 16 Jan).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 14 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jan 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1649 S16W49 205 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1650 S28W44 200 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta
1652 N19W28 184 0210 Cao 04 16 Beta-Gamma
1654 N08E04 152 0950 Fkc 17 31 Beta-Gamma

1656 N22E25 131 0030 Cro 07 07 Beta
1658 S12E63 090 0100 Cso 04 06 Beta

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 08:12 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54!

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 26012302
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01/13/2013 08:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54!

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C6.5
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 08:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I had missed the extended period of Low Electrons [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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01/13/2013 08:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Got it!!!! The incoming cme due on the 17th is associated with the M1.7 flare from sunspot 1652 on 1-13-13, 08:38 UTC.

Thanks Hugh, I saved that link.

I have coordinated the current kp with the magnetosphere as well!!!


[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 08:35 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 31775728
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01/13/2013 08:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54!

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C6.5
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Nice catch Hugh hf

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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01/13/2013 09:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

CME hunting time!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
01/13/2013 09:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54!

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

GOES X-ray flux:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


C6.5
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Nice catch Hugh hf

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: TS66


Howdy, '66banana2 we may have another Earth-facing CME from an unlikely source. AR1650 in the south has joined the party in order to shame that big pussy '54. This LDE is from the southern hemisphere and appears to be a sizable eruption. The SDO movie looks awesome...maybe if I say "please" you could make us a helioviewer vid....please?

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The H-alpha network is cloudy-no current images. Here in the last few shots, you can see the C6 flare and beginning of southern eruption.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

:1/14-cme?:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 09:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I sees' CMEs' [link to sdodata.oma.be] South-West.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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United States
01/13/2013 09:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

CME hunting time!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Nice colorful image there, too haha.

rockonhiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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01/13/2013 09:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
like I said from now till July we will rotate to where all that backside activity has been...

the backside activity comes fron the energy comming from the center of our galaxy....

the western limb is just getting a taste of it now....

unlike most of you I step away from my computer and listen to mother earth and the galaxy above... wow the stuff I have seen with no city lights to block my imagination....

wicked awesome meteors december 12 2012..one flashed in the sky 3 time lighting up all the surounding mountains....

blue wind blowing over the moon december 20 to january 3...

wild hum/vibration heard at my home since january 27 2012 and increasing in strength every day...

and so on and on and on...

you guys are awesome cause you stick to your computers and confirm everything I see....

here is my theory, only had a couple reply's from the sungods, wish there were more.....

Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31894001

I saw an awesome multi-colored "meteor" at a solstice party in the wilderness.

I know what you mean,...

The highly motivated people working this thread provide me with a cosmic texture I would not otherwise have, and deeply appreciate.

cheers


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 09:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Department of Commerce:

65%~M
10%~X

Next three days....

Goodnight all, get good rest .... looks like you may need it !! hf
Hugh M Eye

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01/13/2013 09:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Department of Commerce:

65%~M
10%~X

Next three days....

Goodnight all, get good rest .... looks like you may need it !! hf
 Quoting: TS66


Good night. Miss you.hf

Say hello to our new buddy, AR1658-
:1658:

Meet the little-spot-that-could; as opposed to the behemoth-primadonna-that-can't, hehe.

AR1652-
:1/14-1652:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic

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01/13/2013 09:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

CME hunting time!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites.
You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

CME hunting time!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites.
You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work!
 Quoting: shadasonic


So glad to see you back Shada !!
Spittin'Cesium

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01/13/2013 10:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

CME hunting time!
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites.
You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Awesome!

Hello Shads!

Welcome back to -

glpearth
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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01/13/2013 10:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Shad! Glad you're back. Goodnight 66. Love the glp smilies SC. NiN, where yo bin?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
shenue

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01/13/2013 10:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night all. Peace

smiliesleepmoon
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Isis One

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01/13/2013 10:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Shad! Glad you're back. Goodnight 66. Love the glp smilies SC. NiN, where yo bin?
 Quoting: Isis One


Goodnight shenue
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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01/13/2013 11:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sharp increase in solar winds and protons over the last couple hours.
speed: 513.9 km/sec


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Isis One

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01/13/2013 11:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think.
 Quoting: Isis One


It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined
 Quoting: shadasonic


Good point. I wonder too, if its high latitude has something to do with it. 1654 is lower and may still decay, but that would be a significant if latitude is a variable.
 Quoting: Isis One


Hello Luvly : )

I am sure you must have it already but just incase -

isis
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I forgot to tell you I loved the Isis!!!! You find such good smilies SC. Thanks!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
01/13/2013 11:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sharp increase in solar winds and protons over the last couple hours.
speed: 513.9 km/sec


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


Density has dropped, someone on youtube used to think that a drop in density (1.1) just now, was correlated with earthquakes.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 23231420
United States
01/13/2013 11:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sharp increase in solar winds and protons over the last couple hours.
speed: 513.9 km/sec


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 23231420


Also notable 1654's umbra is decreasing in size.
Area Size: 950 (-) (millionth's)
shadasonic

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01/13/2013 11:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Nice look at that energy mushroom(1654)
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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01/14/2013 12:23 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Nice look at that energy mushroom(1654)
 Quoting: shadasonic


did it let go? or is it still a "shroom"?

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