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| 06:15 PM | ||
| Users Online Now: 2,623 (Who's On?) | Visitors Today: 1,219,055 | |
| Pageviews Today: 2,043,472 | Threads Today: 833 | Posts Today: 12,148 |
| 06:15 PM | ||
SOLAR WATCH * 255 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily) | |
Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450  United States01/13/2013 07:07 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I think you mean the 13th, the CME is definitely around the time of the M1.7 flare from 1652. I'm nearly certain this came from the flare, but there were multiple regions sparking and a large eruption on the west limb at the same time. CME was first spotted on the STEREO A coronagraph (they just took the movie off so you'll have to find my earlier post for the link). The CME forecast came out this afternoon. "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973  United Kingdom01/13/2013 07:12 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Can someone clarify for me please? This thread's enlil shows a CME arrival on the 18th, Hugh's above has one on the 16th, this thread has a KP yellow alert listed. Which event is associated with which date? I was here last night for the C and the M flare. Did the M have a CME afterall? Thanks Quoting: Isis One Thread: Suntards: Enlil Spiral was just updated NASA and NOAA almost always give different forecasts for CME arrivals. Usually they're not this divergent. This makes it even more fun to watch. We can keep score on which model is the most ludicrous, LOL. Really they're just ballpark guesstimates. Not so many years ago there was no clue when CMEs were coming, so this is still a baby science. Personally, I have no idea what the speed of this plasma is. But NOAA's 5-day estimate would make it slow-as-molasses, so I'll tentatively go with the NASA guesstimate of late on the 16th. I'm really believing there's gonna be a bigger blast soon which will kick the first one in the ass, and move up the arrival time even more. I'm hopin' to see some CME cannibalism. Sometimes NASA gives out 2 or 3 different arrival forecasts and I bet we see a different one when the "A-Team" comes in to work on Monday, haha. As it stands, a slow-mover is bound to hang around longer although the dynamic pressure will be less. CACTus data appears to be missing on this CME. The M-flare peaked at 08:38z and there was a huge data gap (of course) with SOHO. CACTus is an automated CME detection tool, so no data input=no analysis output. Maybe NASA should employ psychics....can't hurt. [link to www.sidc.oma.be] Here's the early H-alpha movie--there's a lot going on and I couldn't pinpoint any CME here or on the SDO images. [link to halpha.nso.edu] Thank you very much Hugh. Do you see the fair bit of ejecta coming out at the 4 o'clock position at around 9-10:00 UTC on the 12th on this vid? It is the only thing that seems earthbound to me in the past 72 hours and maybe that can account for the cme due in around the 16th. If there is going to be a piggyback, we need it soon, no? [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] I see it,that was part of the Southern Crown Filament ejecting from NiNz Magic Corner(never fails to produce)and does look to be heading partially this way as do a couple of others but I don't think that is the one on the other Sim. I think they are just differing forecasts for the same CME. Did you catch the one that appears to be going North on your link Isis? That looks(though faint)to maybe be partially ours - I'll have another look see. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 07:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . Edit:Scuse' moi! Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] ! Looking ready to let one go if you ask me. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/13/2013 07:23 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 07:44 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Edit:Scuse' moi! Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] ! Looking ready to let one go if you ask me. Thanks for your excellent eagle eye (I may go spotting tomorrow if its nice). I did see the northern one. Yes, if that bridge blows, Hugh may get the piggyback cme's. Also interesting, how much brighter/active 52 looks than 54, I see couple bright spots coming over the limb also. Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 07:46 PM |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 07:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 2036 Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC Valid To: 2013 Jan 14 1000 UTC Warning Condition: Onset Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 07:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Possible joint Flaring from 1654 and 52 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . Quoting: Spittin'Cesium Edit:Scuse' moi! Anyway,check out the bridges being made between the Sunspot grouping in the North-West [link to sdodata.oma.be] ! Looking ready to let one go if you ask me. Thanks for your excellent eagle eye (I may go spotting tomorrow if its nice). I did see the northern one. Yes, if that bridge blows, Hugh may get the piggyback cme's. Also interesting, how much brighter/active 52 looks than 54, I see couple bright spots coming over the limb also. First Light on the new region cresting the East limb [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 07:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Quoting: Hugh M Eye Serial Number: 2036 Issue Time: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2013 Jan 13 2305 UTC Valid To: 2013 Jan 14 1000 UTC Warning Condition: Onset Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska. [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] CHS I hear. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 08:10 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | NOAA Discussion forecasts CME arrival on 1/17 @21:00z (more than 24 hrs. later than NASA'a forecast)- .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1652 (N19W28) produced the largest event of the previous 24 hours, an M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC with a Type II radio sweep estimated at 649 km/s. Region 1652, a Cao-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, continued to decay. Region 1654 (N08E04), an Fkc-type spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, remained the most threatening region on the solar disk, but showed slight decay in its intermediate spots. Newly-numbered Region 1658 (S12E63) was a simple Cso-type, beta spot group. An earthward directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on STEREO Ahead/Behind imagery, as well as LASCO C2 imagery, starting at 13/0938 UTC. The CME was associated with the M1 flare at 13/0838 UTC from Region 1652. An initial ENLIL model run indicated that the CME will likely impact Earth at approximately 17/2100 UTC based on a speed estimate of 371 km/s. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare for days one, two, and three (14 - 16 Jan). [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 14 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Jan 2013 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 1649 S16W49 205 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta 1650 S28W44 200 0060 Cao 03 03 Beta 1652 N19W28 184 0210 Cao 04 16 Beta-Gamma 1654 N08E04 152 0950 Fkc 17 31 Beta-Gamma 1656 N22E25 131 0030 Cro 07 07 Beta 1658 S12E63 090 0100 Cso 04 06 Beta Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/13/2013 08:12 PM "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 08:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54! [link to halpha.nso.edu] GOES X-ray flux: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| #Geomagnetic_Storm# "Official SunTard" User ID: 26012302 United States01/13/2013 08:24 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54! Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to halpha.nso.edu] GOES X-ray flux: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] C6.5  |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 08:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I had missed the extended period of Low Electrons [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] . The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 08:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Got it!!!! The incoming cme due on the 17th is associated with the M1.7 flare from sunspot 1652 on 1-13-13, 08:38 UTC. Thanks Hugh, I saved that link. I have coordinated the current kp with the magnetosphere as well!!! [link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov] Last Edited by Isis One on 01/13/2013 08:35 PM |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31775728 United States01/13/2013 08:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54! Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to halpha.nso.edu] GOES X-ray flux: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] C6.5 Nice catch Hugh  [link to lasp.colorado.edu] |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 09:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Something tells me something is going on [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] . CME hunting time! The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 09:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | AR1652 is really showing-up his Big Brother '54! Quoting: Hugh M Eye [link to halpha.nso.edu] GOES X-ray flux: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] C6.5 Nice catch Hugh [link to lasp.colorado.edu] Howdy, '66  we may have another Earth-facing CME from an unlikely source. AR1650 in the south has joined the party in order to shame that big pussy '54. This LDE is from the southern hemisphere and appears to be a sizable eruption. The SDO movie looks awesome...maybe if I say "please" you could make us a helioviewer vid....please?[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] The H-alpha network is cloudy-no current images. Here in the last few shots, you can see the C6 flare and beginning of southern eruption. [link to halpha.nso.edu] :1/14-cme?: "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 09:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I sees' CMEs' [link to sdodata.oma.be] South-West. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 09:30 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| zacksavage ~~Unbound~~ User ID: 30235977 United States01/13/2013 09:30 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | like I said from now till July we will rotate to where all that backside activity has been... Quoting: Anonymous Coward 31894001 the backside activity comes fron the energy comming from the center of our galaxy.... the western limb is just getting a taste of it now.... unlike most of you I step away from my computer and listen to mother earth and the galaxy above... wow the stuff I have seen with no city lights to block my imagination.... wicked awesome meteors december 12 2012..one flashed in the sky 3 time lighting up all the surounding mountains.... blue wind blowing over the moon december 20 to january 3... wild hum/vibration heard at my home since january 27 2012 and increasing in strength every day... and so on and on and on... you guys are awesome cause you stick to your computers and confirm everything I see.... here is my theory, only had a couple reply's from the sungods, wish there were more..... Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though! I saw an awesome multi-colored "meteor" at a solstice party in the wilderness. I know what you mean,... The highly motivated people working this thread provide me with a cosmic texture I would not otherwise have, and deeply appreciate.  Z It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupts those who are subject to it. --- AUNG SAN SUU KYI, Freedom from Fear |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31775728 United States01/13/2013 09:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Hugh M Eye User ID: 31662450 United States01/13/2013 09:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Department of Commerce: Quoting: TS66 65%~M 10%~X Next three days.... Goodnight all, get good rest .... looks like you may need it !! Good night. Miss you. Say hello to our new buddy, AR1658- :1658: Meet the little-spot-that-could; as opposed to the behemoth-primadonna-that-can't, hehe. AR1652- :1/14-1652: "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." Frank Zappa "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein |
| shadasonic slumbering no more User ID: 15732022 United States01/13/2013 09:55 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites. You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work! It is sufficiently clear that all things change, yet nothing truly perishes! It riles THEM to believe that you perceive the web they weave- moody blues |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 31775728 United States01/13/2013 10:11 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites. You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work! So glad to see you back Shada !! |
| Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 United Kingdom01/13/2013 10:14 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yes sir that looked like a combined energy field let go, so to speak. We're getting our polarity fields and magnetic signatures back, yehaaaw, and I'm back on line. I've missed just looking at the sun, felt very weird not being able to pick up any sites. You guys have been awesome,kinda neat jusy hangin out watching you brilliant people work! Awesome! Hello Shads! Welcome back to -  The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 10:23 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hi Shad! Glad you're back. Goodnight 66. Love the glp smilies SC. NiN, where yo bin? |
| shenue User ID: 24665717 United States01/13/2013 10:37 PM  Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Good night all. Peace  Watch your thoughts, they become your words. Watch your words, they become your actions. Watch your actions, they become your habits. Watch your habits, they become your character. Watch your character, it becomes your destiny. |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 10:45 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 23231420 United States01/13/2013 11:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 11:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 52 might be the first spot in a long time that didn't decay as it became earth facing. We are breaking a pattern here I think. Quoting: Isis One It seems the pattern is shifting and earth side filament numbers have declined Good point. I wonder too, if its high latitude has something to do with it. 1654 is lower and may still decay, but that would be a significant if latitude is a variable. Hello Luvly : ) I am sure you must have it already but just incase -  I forgot to tell you I loved the Isis!!!! You find such good smilies SC. Thanks! |
| Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States01/13/2013 11:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
| Anonymous Coward User ID: 23231420 United States01/13/2013 11:27 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
