SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 03:35 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Not Found The requested URL /rt_plots/xray_1m.html was not found on this server. Really? Well it is almost B0.0 which is highly disconcerting. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 03:36 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Two Coronal Holes coming [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I can almost make out Big Bird in the Eastern most CH with the fainter lower features. Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I could just be trippin ballz. I think your trippin balls. You're. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 33184649 United States 01/29/2013 04:00 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Two Coronal Holes coming [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I can almost make out Big Bird in the Eastern most CH with the fainter lower features. Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I could just be trippin ballz. looks more like a retarded duck |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 04:01 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Two Coronal Holes coming [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I can almost make out Big Bird in the Eastern most CH with the fainter lower features. Quoting: Spittin'Cesium I could just be trippin ballz. looks more like a retarded duck That is what it looked like last time! If only I knew the smilie. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 04:02 AM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 05:47 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Stereo has been Updating for the last couple Hours [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] and it shows the South-Western Ejection but the Mid-Northern Ejection has been amiss on the available Coronagraphs? You can see the Ejection here [link to sdodata.oma.be] occurring literally just before the CME that is on Stereo...so,where is this ejection? It couldn't have been fast enough to make it 'out of shot' as I saw Aheads Update around 06:55 and there was no CME headed North...I am befuddled. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Kael User ID: 1451069 Syria 01/29/2013 06:55 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Last Edited by Kael on 01/29/2013 06:55 AM "Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are. One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield" |
Tiny Trink User ID: 28990460 United States 01/29/2013 08:22 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.youtube.com] Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2 "You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs. |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 08:53 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Hello and thank you for posting your Daily Post Tinkus Maximus I can't believe he missed the obvious Mid-Northern Eruption also,it is clearly visible on the whole disc movie clips he uses...nevermind,it appears everything else failed to register this apart from the eyes of Spittin'Cesium,here it is plain as Day [link to sdodata.oma.be] on all these Channels [link to sdodata.oma.be] [link to sdodata.oma.be] [link to sdodata.oma.be] And even on H alpha [link to halpha.nso.edu] But as I posted about earlier this has somehow gone missing on the Coronagraphs!? Very strange...The ejection from the South-West is visible on the Coronagraphs but no sign of the Mid-Northern CME...I am at a loss. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 08:58 AM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
psyoptics User ID: 11919225 United States 01/29/2013 08:56 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | so let me recap the temps by me for 1 week????? last friday....11 degrees F sat 29F sun 34F lets jump to today 48f coming wed....59F????????? coming thur. 28F they are predicting a 30 degree drop over freaking night. and now the severe storm warning are coming out today for wed and wed night. up 48 degrees in 5 days then down 30 over night? in Jan? how does one dress for this on Wednesday? oh by the way these are the daily HIGHS! Last Edited by psyoptics on 01/29/2013 09:00 AM a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
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Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 11:45 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Word. Hello 66 What do you make of the obvious CME I posted Above ^ ^ that went missing on the Coronagraphs Sol'Agent!? It is very much confounding for me as obvious CME is obvious The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Moulin_Jean User ID: 1992344 France 01/29/2013 11:54 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Marvelous Luisport ! THX ! Short is 58years. & thx to all too for your hard work. Follow you by months :D Last Edited by Moulin_Jean on 01/29/2013 11:56 AM When government violate the rights of the people, the insurrection is, for the people and for every portion of the people, the most sacred of right and the most indispensable of duties. |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 6185582 United States 01/29/2013 12:09 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Word. Hello 66 What do you make of the obvious CME I posted Above ^ ^ that went missing on the Coronagraphs Sol'Agent!? It is very much confounding for me as obvious CME is obvious Hon !! I wish I could respond , but I' on a tablet and am having a hard time looking at your data To just understand, there were 2 eruptions and resulting CMEs that GOES didn't pick up, and are now missing from SOHO LASCO (chronograph ???) |
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Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 12:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Funny you mention that now...I have just been trawling through some older Solar Data/Stats and concluded that the period around November 2011 resembled a Solar Max. in terms of Sunspot Number and Flare Output,here - Quoting: Spittin'Cesium [link to www.solen.info] Note the Sunspot Number around 2011/11/06 is 209 which is higher than present. I will post some of the images and data from that period to try and show that this cycle(as we know)is way,way off...here is the Sun as of November 6th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. page [link to www.solen.info] Note that the Southern CH is Blue(positive)and the North CH Red(negative) - Compare the CH Polarity with the present,I'll use the December Rotation to illustrate my point [link to www.solen.info] Yes,opposite. Now some other images from the late 2011 period along with the page so that you can view the Stats. for yourselves - Solar Image October 2011 [link to www.solen.info] and page [link to www.solen.info] November 4th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level. At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images). Region 11330 [N07W85] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb. Region 11332 [N32W54] was quiet and stable. Region 11334 [N13W33] was quiet and stable. Region 11336 [N15E13] decayed slowly and quietly. Region 11337 [N18E27] developed slowly and was quiet. Region 11338 [S13E43] was quiet and stable. Region 11339 [N19E58] is a complex, compact, very large region with the potential to produce X10+ class flares. There is a significant magnetic delta structure in the central part and the region will likely continue to produce lots of flares. Flares: C4.4 at 00:18, C3.4 at 01:30, C2.9 at 03:25, C3.2 at 07:15, C2.1 at 09:44, C3.4 at 10:11, M2.5 at 11:11, C1.5 at 14:08, C3.8 at 14:54, C2.2 at 18:09, C4.5 at 18:53, impulsive major X1.9/2B at 20:27, C5.4/1N at 22:18, C9.2 at 23:13, M2.1 at 23:36 UTC. Initially it appeared as if a large CME observed late in the day was associated with the X1 event. However, the source of that CME was backsided. Jumping forward to July 5th 2012 [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level. At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images). Region 11512 [S15W84] added trailing spots and was quiet. Region 11513 [N15W37] decayed slowly and remains capable of producing C and M class flares. Flare: M1.8/2N at 16:39 UTC. This event was associated with a very weak type II radio sweep and a small CME. The CME was observed off the east limb in STEREO-A and west limb in STEREO-B and could reach Earth on July 7. The CME was not easily observed in LASCO imagery. Region 11514 [S16W36] decayed slowly and quietly. Region 11515 [S18W25] displayed impressive development in the central spot section. Several magnetic delta structures are evident as negative polarity spots are trapped inside positive polarity flux. This has caused a significant increase in the background x-ray level. There's a high probability of major M or X class flares. Flares: C5.1/1F at 01:45, C6.1 at 04:10, M2.3 at 04:37, C6.7 at 09:06, major M5.3/2B at 09:55, C5.8 at 11:17, C5.6 at 14:13, M1.3/1F at 14:40, C8.2 at 14:49, C6.4 at 15:50, C6.9 at 16:12, C9.5 at 21:27, M4.6 at 22:09, C7.4 at 22:45, M1.2 at 23:55 UTC. Region 11516 [N12W53] decayed slowly and quetly. Region 11517 [N19W13] decayed slowly and quietly. New region 11518 [N09E68] rotated into view on July 3 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. New region 11519 [S15E76] rotated into view with a single spot. (I can clearly remember AR1515(Isis)as she put out a great show) July 6th [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 14 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images). Region 11513 [N15W51] decayed losing most of the small spots and simpified magnetically. The single penumbra was mostly unchanged. Region 11514 [S18W49] decayed further and could soon become spotless. Region 11515 [S17W38] lost a few spots and what was a major magnetic delta decreased in size and importance. There are currently small magnetic delta structures in all large penumbrae. M class flares are highly likely and there's a chance of an X class flare. Flares: M1.2 at 00:38, M3.7 at 01:10, M1.2 at 01:31, C9.9 at 01:41, C8.1 at 02:05, C7.9 at 02:26, M3.3 at 02:42, M1.1 at 03:31, M7.8 at 03:36, M3.0 at 03:42, M1.1 at 04:45, C8.5 at 05:05, M1.2 at 06:53, M1.6 at 07:45, C8.0 at 09:30, M2.3 at 10:48, C9.2 at 10:56, M8.7 at 11:44, M1.4 at 13:20, C9.5 at 13:55, C8.4 at 14:46, C6.1 at 15:59 ... UTC. In addition 2 M and several C flares were recorded later in the day. The flare list is according to SDO/SAM/EVE 1 minute measurements. Region 11517 [N19W26] added a few spots but lost mature penumbra. Region 11518 [N09E53] was quiet and stable. Region 11519 [S16E62] was quiet and stable. Anyway,I'll stop there(excuse me folks)I am pretty sure you get the point I am trying to make...I invite anyone to go back and view other Dates ranging from around October/November 2011 through Mid 2012 and note the Magnetic Complexity of the Active Regions,the SS Number and output in X-Rays as well as the SW Speeds and migrating CHs' and I think you may conclude the same as I am beginning to - That Solar Max. happened already though we may get another short round if the Solar output in X-Rays increases and the Sunspot count goes above the November 2011 high of 209. Again,please excuse my diatribe,I can't help it I've become complacent in my drive to figure out sol! Quoting: shadasonic Things are still off in its energetic signature yet I'm now content to relax and let it show me its diversity, the way of our energy is so interconnected to it and all vibrating, electric bodies, souls, the Dow, spirit and cognitive resonance. You searchers, bayards of of it all, have my complete respect and I'll continue to watch and listen to your insight in these ever increasing days of coherent countdowns. Peace my friends! Chad Much,much Luv and Respect to you Sol'Bro - you got the gifts Shada. Yes,I agree the Suns' refusal to behave in the manner it should have been doing for not just the last Year but for the last Minimum and this supposed Maximum - But we watch Here Shads,if you've not already taken a Butchers Hook( [link to www.urbandictionary.com] [link to www.sidc.oma.be] 34 Year Magnetic Field Data Plot [link to wso.stanford.edu] <--- Note. Stanford Wilcox Solar Pole Plot for the Time period 1st January 1997 - 31st December 2012 [link to wso.stanford.edu] <--- Notice still the drop visible over the shorter period. Word. Hello 66 What do you make of the obvious CME I posted Above ^ ^ that went missing on the Coronagraphs Sol'Agent!? It is very much confounding for me as obvious CME is obvious Hon !! I wish I could respond , but I' on a tablet and am having a hard time looking at your data To just understand, there were 2 eruptions and resulting CMEs that GOES didn't pick up, and are now missing from SOHO LASCO (chronograph ???) Sol'Agent and SupremeWatcher - To clarify,not two missing CMEs' just the one from the Mid-North of the disc at the same moment,more or less,as the South-Western ejection visible on Stereo - Cannae' find it...Nevermind : ) The Msg. I'd just posted you had links that didn't show so I thought I'd repost the observations with the Above ^ ^ quoted Comments so you can(when you have the time)take a peep to see what I was trying to get at. One more link I think very important for this issue is a Plot of the Sunspot Number to CME Ratio since 1997,here [link to www.sidc.oma.be] the obvious thing to note from that is the apparent lack of correlation of CMEs' to Sunspot Numbers with the CME count being around the same if not more than the last Cycle - This I find very intriguing Much Respect to you always 66 The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 12:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Da fuq User ID: 16258666 United States 01/29/2013 12:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yup, that CH coming around the bend is huge. The earthfacing quiet will continue, this is not a maunder minimum. No way in hell earth has that huge an influence on the earth facing sun. Severe weather outbreak in the southern united states again, tornadoes and what not.... during WINTER. This is either the 2nd or 3rd time this has happened in that area this season. The earth receives information how to behave much like our sun receives information to act the way it is now. I assume the sun is tethered to the galactic center or a larger star closer to the center, Sirius? |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 02:12 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Yup, that CH coming around the bend is huge. The earthfacing quiet will continue, this is not a maunder minimum. No way in hell earth has that huge an influence on the earth facing sun. Severe weather outbreak in the southern united states again, tornadoes and what not.... during WINTER. This is either the 2nd or 3rd time this has happened in that area this season. The earth receives information how to behave much like our sun receives information to act the way it is now. I assume the sun is tethered to the galactic center or a larger star closer to the center, Sirius? Why do you conclude that the deviation of this Cycles(Min. and Max.)comparative Magnetism compared to the last Cycles does not potentially represent a overall Minimum(akin to the Maunder)but you still say to expect the Earth-Facing quiet to continue Sol'Bro'? The Maunder Minimum is one of the longer known periods of quiet but there is also the 'Dalton Minimum' of the 1700's,here - 'The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years. Less severe than the Maunder minimum of the 1600s, a period with what was to be a long period of a sunspotless sun. It was nonetheless a cold era.' [link to images.intellicast.com] . Other interesting factoids relating to the apparent similarities between the build up and arrival of the Dalton Min. are the SS Numbers of the prior Cycles marked out here [link to images.intellicast.com] [link to images.intellicast.com] - Excuse the fact that the dates span to 2010,these are from a article from 09,a period where a prolonged Spotless period led to the temporary collapse of our upper Atmospheres. I'll quote some of the page and then post the link,you will find it of much use I think Da'Fuq - November 9th 2009 --------------------- 'The cycle was also very long. Minimum was likely reached in December, making the cycle 12.7 years long. The two prior cycles have been 10.3 and 9.7 years. Often cycles shorter than 10.5 years are stronger cycles with greater warmth, those greater than 11 years, weaker and colder. Short cycles herald a warm global temperature indicator. The Dalton Minimum it was thought started with a skipped solar cycle and coincided with a very long solar cycle 4 from 1784-1799. Usoskin (2001) in this paper believe they may have found a lost cycle in that period due to partly unreliable observations. It appears to have been a very weak cycle. This is the general belief of cycle lengths since the middle 1700s - Note the similarity of the last four cycles to the first four cycles leading into the Dalton Minimum.' - Recommended Reading [link to www.intellicast.com] <--- Read it Scuse' my disjointed post,I am very tired,hope it doesn't come across as confusing at all. Need Sleeps. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 02:13 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 03:29 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Also worth noting(and finding what the values represent in real terms,obviously)are some of the Gifs. included in this [link to wso.stanford.edu] list,some are of little to no use where-as around 3/5ths pertain to our Stars Polar Magnetic Oscillations. Enjoy. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 03:33 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 04:06 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Here is the Snip - “So, what does this lack of sunspot activity on the sun really mean? The answer is still unknown but there is one thing that we do know. We know that there was only one scientific paper that predicted this current trend in sunspot activity before it all began. However, the paper was ridiculed after it was released in 2005 and denied publication. The paper was released during the active sun in 2005 and the scientific community rejected the paper as being too controversial. Eventually published in EOS in July 2009. This controversial paper was based on the research of a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) at Kitt Peak in Tucson, Arizona, William Livingston and Matthew Penn. The researchers looked at magnetic changes in the sun by analyzing data from sunspot observations over a 15-year period from 1990 to 2005. In total, over 1000 sunspots were measured. It was certainly a small sample size but nevertheless the researchers did discover an interesting trend. Livingston and Penn discovered that the magnetic field of sunspots were decreasing rapidly in 2005 from observations made in the late 1990’s. A projection of a continued decline in the magnetic field of sunspots would mean that by 2015 there would be no visible sunspots on the face of the sun. So, the solar cycle would effectively be “put on hold” in the year 2015. It would remain on hold until the unknown mechanism driving the process decided to start up again. The result is that by 2015 there would be no visible sunspots. The conclusion of their research was certainly controversial and it was also the title of their work: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015". It should again be noted that their paper only considers data from 15 years worth of sunspots, that’s only just a little more than one cycle. Data over several sunspot cycles could certainly be seen as more conclusive in the scientific community.' Plot Gif. [link to images.intellicast.com] Conclusion - 'However, what if the conclusions in the paper are correct and we are about to enter a sunspot minimum with the regular sunspot cycle placed on hold in a few years time? After all, it has happened before during both the Maunder and Dalton Minimums and our current sunspot activity is certainly trending that way. It would mean much colder times lie just ahead on a scale that would mean devastation for agriculture and the global economy. Indeed, the problem will become even worse if billions of dollars were already being spent in an attempt to prevent a future global warming event.' [link to www.intellicast.com] Rice and Peas. Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 04:08 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 04:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Big Bird Reloaded [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !? It's not actually all a Coronal Hole(yet,it could form,could)only the Northern-most that appears pitch dark is the main region of the Coronal Hole - The original 'BigBird Coronal Hole' - And how it appeared once 'Face-on' [link to spaceweather.com] . Hoping for Hugh that CHBB makes a rerun through the Chicken Coop once more : ) . The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 01/29/2013 05:01 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 1540313 United States 01/29/2013 05:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Big Bird Reloaded [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] !? Quoting: Spittin'Cesium It's not actually all a Coronal Hole(yet,it could form,could)only the Northern-most that appears pitch dark is the main region of the Coronal Hole - The original 'BigBird Coronal Hole' - :bigbird-chicken: And how it appeared once 'Face-on' [link to spaceweather.com] . Hoping for Hugh that CHBB makes a rerun through the Chicken Coop once more : ) . That was a spectacular C.H. thanks for posting it again! |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 05:54 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | A little juice on Betelgeuse's possible future Magnetic Smash-up - 'A faint linear bar of dust is illuminated at left [link to www.herschel.caltech.edu] and may represent a dusty filament connected to the local galactic magnetic field, or the edge of an interstellar cloud. If so, then Betelgeuse's motion across the sky implies that the arcs will hit the wall in 5,000 years time, with the star itself colliding with the wall 12, 500 years later' [link to www.herschel.caltech.edu] . The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 07:00 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Danger [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] B - Nothing. Kaput. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
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Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 07:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/29/2013 07:20 PM The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |
Spittin'Cesium User ID: 14589973 Netherlands 01/29/2013 07:34 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Numpty Max. [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] Make of that what you will. The thing that hath been, is That which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun. Ecclesiastes 9:1 |