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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 2579388
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01/31/2013 01:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Cesium, I agree. I don't know if you have this link, but when I'm looking at comparative data (years worth) I use this.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

this graphic now indicates a reversal prior to 2013 also.

[link to s16.postimage.org]

I'm not sure where this graphic comes from, I'm sure I picked it up here after my bookmark fiasco.
 Quoting: TS66


Yes [link to s16.postimage.org] yes.

: )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Sooooo close! :/
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 01:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Rather large Ejecta from that filament.



For those not concerned with gov shills and their data.

10 O clock

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


hiding
 Quoting: Da fuq


Where the f*** do you think you are getting the data you are posting you bafoon ??????

You truly believe after you've got the answer to it all after being on this thread for a couple of weeks and have the right to deem what is relavent and what is not in your egotistical and limited mind ?????
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 01:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Hugh, what is your best guess on this big boy?

I didn't think the eruption last night would be geoeffective either. If we are in line of that we are in trouble.




You can tweak graphs and tables. Why would they show that much ejecta then? If they didn't want to raise concern. Calm down you ape.


From this video, one can understand there may be sizeable ejecta headed in our direction. Why would we worry about if the flare was a b or c.


Everyone knows they mess with data from time to time and show the public what they want them to see. (NASA)

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 02:01 PM
MamaHasAwakened

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01/31/2013 01:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump ing for myself!
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 01:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Saved them ....

:13113:

:131132:


spock
 Quoting: TS66


Howdy, '66, we've seen this discrepancy before. The 5-min. plot is not synchronized with the 1-min. plot. You'd think this would be a simple thing to correct for a multi-billion agency, but NOOOoooo. My advice is to never look at the inaccurate 5-min plot, just use the 1-min plot. This is just another example of NOAA's incompetence. We've seen a few M1 flares that look like C-flares on the long plot. I hope they're better at saving the whales or measuring chemtrails, LOL.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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01/31/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hey there, waking up when I did I had no option but to view this but on a 5 minute plot, and have never seen this discrepency before, nor has it been pointed out, and as most of us here know, I'm a hound for facts, proof, data, not conjecture.

If I have missed this somehow in the 2 and a half years I have been on this site, and observing data, please someone, simply show me.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 02:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Hugh, what is your best guess on this big boy?

I didn't think the eruption last night would be geoeffective either. If we are in line of that we are in trouble.




You can tweak graphs and tables. Why would they show that much ejecta then? If they didn't want to raise concern. Calm down you ape.


From this video, one can understand there may be sizeable ejecta headed in our direction. Why would we worry about if the flare was a b or c.


Everyone knows they mess with data from time to time and show the public what they want them to see. (NASA)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Wow, that was huge! I don't think it's earth-directed but we'll wait for the coronagraph images.
SDO composite of that big-ass filament lifting off:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Enormous double-ribbon Hyder flare/tsunami wave went right over the horizon:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Da fuq

User ID: 16258666
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01/31/2013 02:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yeah come to think of it, it's in almost the exact same spot as the filament last week that sandwiched us with another CME.


I am surprised however, at the size and speed of this one. [link to halpha.nso.edu] (It did seem to have a whip motion to it though)

Considering how much Ejecta came out of this last one. [link to halpha.nso.edu]

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 02:21 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Rather large Ejecta from that filament.



For those not concerned with gov shills and their data.

10 O clock

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu] Anyone feel your DNA scrambling yet?
 Quoting: Da fuq


Good stuff with that there Filament Daffy!

Awesome.

sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A giant filament erupted in the SE right after the C-flare.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




That had descent amount of ejecta for as much plasma sucked back in. I think we might get smacked around a bit.
 Quoting: Da fuq

ISWA has updated, and they are showing it to be geoeffective on the 3rd - [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: muse_1111


Event Issue Date: 2013-01-31 09:13:23.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-02-03 03:15:51.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 18 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re
Sun, 03 Feb 2013 03:15:51 GMT


not bad...
 Quoting: Da fuq


Thanks for the update, folks. I didn't expect this to be geoeffective due to the SE origin. CACTus Details have clocked this CME at 1500km/s. This is swiftest we've seen facing Earth lately, which makes me wonder how they forecast an 18-hour disturbance. Here's SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CACTus Details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'd thought the same regarding the Disturbance Duration - Eighteen Hours is quite something...perhaps it is to with a longer reverberation of our MS from a high velocity impact?

I'll need to do a little more reading.

Thank Hugh Sol'Man.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 02:58 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We got small ejection on the Mid-Western disc also [link to halpha.nso.edu] .

Um,please don't call my Friend a 'Ape'.

Thanking you ta'.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 02:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's the earlier filament eruption in the SE-



[link to www.youtube.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Coronal Hole 552 is really growing some hey!?

It looks like we may get BigBird Reloaded afterallchuckle

bigbird-chicken

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/31/2013 02:53 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's the earlier filament eruption in the SE-



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That looked incredible.

I like the clear separation in the Layers of Plasma in that Prominence,great structure.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 03:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


wut?
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 03:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


If you mean over the horizon, that's our old disappointing behemoth 1654 comin' around again.
hiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


If you mean over the horizon, that's our old disappointing behemoth 1654 comin' around again.
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


:35r3: [link to postimage.org] Curious... That appears the same time as my green ball of energy anomaly. [link to postimage.org]


It appears we have company.








[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Don't hurt yourself, sol.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 03:47 PM
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 03:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lockheed-Solarsoft SDO close-up movie of NE filament liftoff which they infer caused a partial-halo CME:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

It must be contagious as a much smaller filament just lit up in the NW near mid-disk.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

What's up with STEREO website today? There's no current mpg movies and when I click on an image I get "not found".
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


By 'that' do you mean the interference?

If so that is due to the Van Allen Belts(I think)when you see the 'Dark Count' begin to rise on EVE Diodes [link to lasp.colorado.edu] you will notice the interference on the EVE Image.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


wut?
 Quoting: Da fuq


Aye' - And a fine one at thatwink
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 04:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


By 'that' do you mean the interference?

If so that is due to the Van Allen Belts(I think)when you see the 'Dark Count' begin to rise on EVE Diodes [link to lasp.colorado.edu] you will notice the interference on the EVE Image.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I'll buy that. hf
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 04:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahha.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 05:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 05:29 PM
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/31/2013 05:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Supermassive black hole weighed using new scale

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]


ufo56
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
ANHEDONIC

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01/31/2013 05:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something affecting our atmosphere right now Solmigos? My feet are on fire and have bad pins & needles (tingling). I saw the cosmic ray pinned thread and noticed Isis said we had 2 GRB's? What is the verdict on what's going on now? Any CME's hitting us? Coronol hole(s)?

Thanks.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"

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