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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 02:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yeah come to think of it, it's in almost the exact same spot as the filament last week that sandwiched us with another CME.


I am surprised however, at the size and speed of this one. [link to halpha.nso.edu] (It did seem to have a whip motion to it though)

Considering how much Ejecta came out of this last one. [link to halpha.nso.edu]

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 02:21 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Rather large Ejecta from that filament.



For those not concerned with gov shills and their data.

10 O clock

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu] Anyone feel your DNA scrambling yet?
 Quoting: Da fuq


Good stuff with that there Filament Daffy!

Awesome.

sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 02:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A giant filament erupted in the SE right after the C-flare.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




That had descent amount of ejecta for as much plasma sucked back in. I think we might get smacked around a bit.
 Quoting: Da fuq

ISWA has updated, and they are showing it to be geoeffective on the 3rd - [link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: muse_1111


Event Issue Date: 2013-01-31 09:13:23.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-02-03 03:15:51.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 18 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.3 Re
Sun, 03 Feb 2013 03:15:51 GMT


not bad...
 Quoting: Da fuq


Thanks for the update, folks. I didn't expect this to be geoeffective due to the SE origin. CACTus Details have clocked this CME at 1500km/s. This is swiftest we've seen facing Earth lately, which makes me wonder how they forecast an 18-hour disturbance. Here's SEEDS movie of CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

CACTus Details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'd thought the same regarding the Disturbance Duration - Eighteen Hours is quite something...perhaps it is to with a longer reverberation of our MS from a high velocity impact?

I'll need to do a little more reading.

Thank Hugh Sol'Man.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 02:58 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We got small ejection on the Mid-Western disc also [link to halpha.nso.edu] .

Um,please don't call my Friend a 'Ape'.

Thanking you ta'.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 02:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's the earlier filament eruption in the SE-



[link to www.youtube.com]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Coronal Hole 552 is really growing some hey!?

It looks like we may get BigBird Reloaded afterallchuckle

bigbird-chicken

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 01/31/2013 02:53 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's the earlier filament eruption in the SE-



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That looked incredible.

I like the clear separation in the Layers of Plasma in that Prominence,great structure.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 02:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 03:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


wut?
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


If you mean over the horizon, that's our old disappointing behemoth 1654 comin' around again.
hiding
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


If you mean over the horizon, that's our old disappointing behemoth 1654 comin' around again.
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


:35r3: [link to postimage.org] Curious... That appears the same time as my green ball of energy anomaly. [link to postimage.org]


It appears we have company.








[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Don't hurt yourself, sol.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 03:47 PM
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Lockheed-Solarsoft SDO close-up movie of NE filament liftoff which they infer caused a partial-halo CME:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

It must be contagious as a much smaller filament just lit up in the NW near mid-disk.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

What's up with STEREO website today? There's no current mpg movies and when I click on an image I get "not found".
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


By 'that' do you mean the interference?

If so that is due to the Van Allen Belts(I think)when you see the 'Dark Count' begin to rise on EVE Diodes [link to lasp.colorado.edu] you will notice the interference on the EVE Image.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He called me a bafoon, but in the heat of the moment.

I take it all back.
 Quoting: Da fuq


TS66 is a She by the way : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


wut?
 Quoting: Da fuq


Aye' - And a fine one at thatwink
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 04:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Green light/heat/energy ball again.

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Top left

[link to postimage.org]

Only ever shows up in that filter.








[link to postimage.org] Wtf is that btw.
 Quoting: Da fuq


By 'that' do you mean the interference?

If so that is due to the Van Allen Belts(I think)when you see the 'Dark Count' begin to rise on EVE Diodes [link to lasp.colorado.edu] you will notice the interference on the EVE Image.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I'll buy that. hf
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 04:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahha.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 05:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 05:29 PM
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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01/31/2013 05:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Supermassive black hole weighed using new scale

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]


ufo56
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
ANHEDONIC

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01/31/2013 05:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something affecting our atmosphere right now Solmigos? My feet are on fire and have bad pins & needles (tingling). I saw the cosmic ray pinned thread and noticed Isis said we had 2 GRB's? What is the verdict on what's going on now? Any CME's hitting us? Coronol hole(s)?

Thanks.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
NotSignedIn
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01/31/2013 06:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Reminds of me an elderly gent, Ham Radio operator...incredibly intelligent and wise. Also, where have I heard, "My God, it's full of stars!"
nerdrage88sasr

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01/31/2013 06:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 01/31/2013 06:42 PM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 06:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Reminds of me an elderly gent, Ham Radio operator...incredibly intelligent and wise. Also, where have I heard, "My God, it's full of stars!"
 Quoting: NotSignedIn 27760252


He came pretty close to replicating Tesla.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 1rof1

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 06:50 PM
El Quisqueyano

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01/31/2013 07:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd


Doesn't appear so Nerd. Wow. That's almost an 11% rise in GLE Cosmic Rays.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd


Howdy, Nerd, we been missin' ya!peace You're correct of course. If you look at the longer range plot it's plain to see that this is nothing earth-shaking.

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

The big peak there in November 2011 nearly caused keyboards to melt down here on GLP Solar Watch, haha. If anyone's bored go back and look at the last week of Nov. 2011 on this very thread.I remember it well though I'm not sure of the exact date. I think it was Nov 21 or 23. Of course nothing unusual happened because of it. Fukushima is a far bigger threat than Galactic Cosmic Rays.

Also note on that graph that the lowest amounts of neutrons recorded were during very intense periods of geoeffective solar activity in March and July 2012. When solar influence slows down or weakens considerably we nearly always see an uptick in GCR neutrons. The sun usually blows them away from the magnetosphere when there's a strong solar plasma wind.
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

Direct hit.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 07:38 PM
shadasonic

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01/31/2013 07:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something affecting our atmosphere right now Solmigos? My feet are on fire and have bad pins & needles (tingling). I saw the cosmic ray pinned thread and noticed Isis said we had 2 GRB's? What is the verdict on what's going on now? Any CME's hitting us? Coronol hole(s)?

Thanks.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


Its the grbs, they hit me hard
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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