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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 04:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spittin'Cesium

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01/31/2013 04:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In reference to the earlier earth-directed CME, I thought the CACTus velocity assessment was way too high. It seems that NOAA agrees, calling it a slow event. I like how they diplomatically bemoan the SOHO data gaps just like we do (albeit less diplomatically,haha). From NOAA Discussion-

A second CME was
observed already in progress on LASCO C2/C3 imagery starting prior to
31/0750 UTC. Neither the start time nor the source location were
determined due to a LASCO tracking gap which occurred from 30/2145 to
31/0750 UTC. STEREO A COR2 data suggests that the event began after
31/0709 UTC. Based on analysis of STEREO and LASCO, this event was
determined to be front-sided with an asymmetric partial halo signature.
It is moving on a southeasterly trajectory at a relatively modest
velocity. No x-ray enhancements or associated radio were observed;
suggesting a slow event
likely from a filament eruption. As more data
becomes available, additional analysis will be conducted to determine if
the event has geoeffective potential for later this week.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahha.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 05:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 05:29 PM
Goofy for God
For by Him All Things Were Created

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01/31/2013 05:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Supermassive black hole weighed using new scale

[link to www.bbc.co.uk]


ufo56
Isaiah 49: (KJV)
6 And he said, It is a light thing that thou shouldest be my servant to raise up the tribes of Jacob, and to restore the preserved of Israel: I will also give thee for a light to the Gentiles, that thou mayest be my salvation unto the end of the earth.
ANHEDONIC

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01/31/2013 05:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something affecting our atmosphere right now Solmigos? My feet are on fire and have bad pins & needles (tingling). I saw the cosmic ray pinned thread and noticed Isis said we had 2 GRB's? What is the verdict on what's going on now? Any CME's hitting us? Coronol hole(s)?

Thanks.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
NotSignedIn
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01/31/2013 06:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Reminds of me an elderly gent, Ham Radio operator...incredibly intelligent and wise. Also, where have I heard, "My God, it's full of stars!"
nerdrage88sasr

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01/31/2013 06:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd

Last Edited by nerdrage88sasr on 01/31/2013 06:42 PM
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets Oppurtunity"-- Seneca (5BC-65AD)
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 06:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This guy is freaking out.

Makes a lot of valid points though.





[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Reminds of me an elderly gent, Ham Radio operator...incredibly intelligent and wise. Also, where have I heard, "My God, it's full of stars!"
 Quoting: NotSignedIn 27760252


He came pretty close to replicating Tesla.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 1rof1

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 06:50 PM
El Quisqueyano

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01/31/2013 07:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd


Doesn't appear so Nerd. Wow. That's almost an 11% rise in GLE Cosmic Rays.
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 07:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd


Howdy, Nerd, we been missin' ya!peace You're correct of course. If you look at the longer range plot it's plain to see that this is nothing earth-shaking.

[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

The big peak there in November 2011 nearly caused keyboards to melt down here on GLP Solar Watch, haha. If anyone's bored go back and look at the last week of Nov. 2011 on this very thread.I remember it well though I'm not sure of the exact date. I think it was Nov 21 or 23. Of course nothing unusual happened because of it. Fukushima is a far bigger threat than Galactic Cosmic Rays.

Also note on that graph that the lowest amounts of neutrons recorded were during very intense periods of geoeffective solar activity in March and July 2012. When solar influence slows down or weakens considerably we nearly always see an uptick in GCR neutrons. The sun usually blows them away from the magnetosphere when there's a strong solar plasma wind.
Da fuq

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01/31/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]

Direct hit.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 01/31/2013 07:38 PM
shadasonic

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01/31/2013 07:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something affecting our atmosphere right now Solmigos? My feet are on fire and have bad pins & needles (tingling). I saw the cosmic ray pinned thread and noticed Isis said we had 2 GRB's? What is the verdict on what's going on now? Any CME's hitting us? Coronol hole(s)?

Thanks.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


Its the grbs, they hit me hard
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


Doesn't appear so Nerd. Wow. That's almost an 11% rise in GLE Cosmic Rays.


I've seen this also Q, nerd and I had a talk about it a while back!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
He's baa-aa-ack...the big wimp 1654. Two B-flares already today. Not so strong now are ya, tough guy?
B5.8 flare from AR1667(?)-
:1654returns:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 32 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Feb 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 31 Jan
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1662 N27W39 317 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1663 S09W24 302 0050 Cso 04 02 Beta
1665 N11E37 242 0150 Hax 02 03 Alpha
1666 S24E34 244 0010 Hrx 01 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 31/2400Z Jan
Nmbr Location Lo
1661 N13W63 342
II. Regions Due to Return 01 Feb to 03 Feb
Nmbr Lat Lo
1654 N07 169


Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
:wimpisback:
Hugh M Eye

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01/31/2013 08:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


NOAA's updated "Discussion' on filaments and CMEs-

.24 hr Summary...
Two significant filament eruptions, at least one of which appears to be
Earth-directed,
were observed during the period. The first was visible
in SDO AIA 304 imagery beginning at about 31/0439 UTC and lasting until
31/0725 UTC. This filament erupted from the southeast limb. A CME was
subsequently visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery around 31/0800
UTC. Analysis suggests the CME had an Earth-directed component and was
moving at approximately 550 km/s.
No radio emissions were reported with
this event. The second filament eruption occurred in the northeast
quadrant. It was first observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery at 31/1543 UTC
and lasted until 31/1742 UTC. We are awaiting coronagraph imagery to
begin an analysis of this event
. Otherwise, solar activity was low.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

As an outsider helio-tard, I have to wonder how SIDC/CACTus came up with a velocity 1000kms/s faster than NOAA. Well, not having any insider info, here's my personal theory....
Since the CACTus system is an entirely automated computer detection program, it's my theory that when dealing with 'missing' data/images from SOHO/LASCO, the computer sees a large CME appear from nowhere and automatically interprets this as incredible velocities. These constant data gaps are screwin' up their own systems and forecasts. It's like a comedy of errors...one week NOAA has egg on its face and the next NASA gets a pie in the eye,LOL.

This is why I try not to get too worked up over every herky-jerky graph and NASA toy models. These are very complex systems of satellites, cameras, sensors downlinks, computers and slothful public servants. There's a lot points for stinky data to get in, and in typical bureaucratic fashion the crap just gets passed along to me , the consumer. The thing that TS66 pointed out this morning about the bad GOES 5-min. x-ray chart is totally inexcusable. That 'low-ball' x-ray flux count was seen by us here many months ago and should have been easy to fix. NOAA and NASA should hire some sun-tards with a passion for timely and flawless images & data. The sad fact is these stuffed shirts wouldn't even hire me to be a night janitor, HAHA.

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/31/2013 08:19 PM
shadasonic

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01/31/2013 09:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


NOAA's updated "Discussion' on filaments and CMEs-

.24 hr Summary...
Two significant filament eruptions, at least one of which appears to be
Earth-directed,
were observed during the period. The first was visible
in SDO AIA 304 imagery beginning at about 31/0439 UTC and lasting until
31/0725 UTC. This filament erupted from the southeast limb. A CME was
subsequently visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery around 31/0800
UTC. Analysis suggests the CME had an Earth-directed component and was
moving at approximately 550 km/s.
No radio emissions were reported with
this event. The second filament eruption occurred in the northeast
quadrant. It was first observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery at 31/1543 UTC
and lasted until 31/1742 UTC. We are awaiting coronagraph imagery to
begin an analysis of this event
. Otherwise, solar activity was low.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

As an outsider helio-tard, I have to wonder how SIDC/CACTus came up with a velocity 1000kms/s faster than NOAA. Well, not having any insider info, here's my personal theory....
Since the CACTus system is an entirely automated computer detection program, it's my theory that when dealing with 'missing' data/images from SOHO/LASCO, the computer sees a large CME appear from nowhere and automatically interprets this as incredible velocities. These constant data gaps are screwin' up their own systems and forecasts. It's like a comedy of errors...one week NOAA has egg on its face and the next NASA gets a pie in the eye,LOL.

This is why I try not to get too worked up over every herky-jerky graph and NASA toy models. These are very complex systems of satellites, cameras, sensors downlinks, computers and slothful public servants. There's a lot points for stinky data to get in, and in typical bureaucratic fashion the crap just gets passed along to me , the consumer. The thing that TS66 pointed out this morning about the bad GOES 5-min. x-ray chart is totally inexcusable. That 'low-ball' x-ray flux count was seen by us here many months ago and should have been easy to fix. NOAA and NASA should hire some sun-tards with a passion for timely and flawless images & data. The sad fact is these stuffed shirts wouldn't even hire me to be a night janitor, HAHA.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Nice theory, sounds very plausible
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Tiny Trink


woowho, planetary alignments create torque, I LOVE it!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Isis One

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02/01/2013 01:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hand of God


respect
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Thread: How To Raise Your Vibrational Frequency If Interested
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]

That has to be error.


[link to neutronm.bartol.udel.edu]
I have never seen it even close to 10,000. I don't get how there is no increase on the right panel.
 Quoting: nerdrage88sasr


This happens every now and again mate, its just when they place the daily total on the monthly chart...it will be back to normal scale 2moro..
Peace
Nerd


Nerd mate - I miss your input Brother!

Hope you are relatively OKsun

I look forward to your research/watching coming back to SolarWatch - You are part of the old guard.

OneLuv2.

Hello everyone else!

Hope you are all well and good,fine and dandyhf

Got some data I thought had gone missing from the other day I will be posting in a Minute.

cosmos

link

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/01/2013 06:42 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Tiny Trink

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Spittin'Cesium

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
So then,beginning with the 193 Movie [link to sdodata.oma.be] we got the North-Eastern Filament Ejection followed by another around Mid-West that did also produce a Ejection and looks quite cool in its' appearance,nice symmetry.

And now for some CMEs - First off is the North Ejection I witnessed on the 31st that never appeared on the Coronagraphs at the time which had me a little confabulated for the intervening period,anyhoo' here it is [link to www.sidc.oma.be] quite a nice size to it as I had expected due to what I had seen on the SDO Movie at the time.

And now for some more recent,decent blasts [link to www.sidc.oma.be]

And the North-Eastern Filament Ejection [link to www.sidc.oma.be] The Stats. on this one have been computed several times now,this I am sure is the final computing of the CMEs' Statistics and it does appear after-all that its' Velocity is actually 1736Km/s - Pretty darn nippy!

I think I read that the V. had been revised by NOAA in a post from Hugh earlier - Hugh,have they again changed their mind on its' V. do you know?

I ask because I see 4/5 times this ejection has been computed by the Cactus Software with this final V. of 1736Km/S being the one they have settled on - do you have any other info that may state this is incorrect as of now Sol'Man!?

Thank Hugh and otherssunhf

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/01/2013 08:06 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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02/01/2013 08:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this? It appears to be roughly spherical by the way that plasma curves around it, especially pronounced on the 304 image.

[link to www.postimg.net]

[link to www.postimg.net]

[link to www.postimg.net]
shenue

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.:smilieLappinCoff:
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
MamaHasAwakened

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02/01/2013 09:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.:smilieLappinCoff:
 Quoting: shenue


Good Morning Shenue and Everyone!

coffee4

Thanks for all you do!
Spittin'Cesium

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02/01/2013 10:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.:smilieLappinCoff:
 Quoting: shenue


Guten Morgan Sol'Mumma' Shenuhf

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
zacksavage

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02/01/2013 10:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning all.:smilieLappinCoff:
 Quoting: shenue


Good Morning

Should be a great day!!!



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Spittin'Cesium

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02/01/2013 10:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is this? It appears to be roughly spherical by the way that plasma curves around it, especially pronounced on the 304 image.

[link to www.postimg.net]

[link to www.postimg.net]

[link to www.postimg.net]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 11751107


What you are looking at is a nice example of a cluster fuck of Magnetic Plasma Arcs and other areas of Plasma being held aloft within the cacophony of contorted Magnetic Fields on show.

It looks quite awesome still [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] also looks potentially quite violently ready to Mass Eject within the next little while...on EVE you can see a haze of Plasma emitting Soft X-Rays [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] above that region and also right up the Eastern limb,I personally think there is a good chance for a relatively decent sized CME from the region.

In other Gnewz...the Filament from the North-East has now been given a Type IV Halo status [link to www.sidc.oma.be] With a Averaged Velocity of 1453Km/S.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/01/2013 10:52 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/01/2013 10:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Zhi

sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
zacksavage

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02/01/2013 10:57 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Zhi

sunhf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You know,...it always cracks me up when I read your moniker.

hi


Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Spittin'Cesium

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02/01/2013 11:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Zhi

sunhf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


You know,...it always cracks me up when I read your moniker.

hi


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Glad to hear it Zack : )

It is supposed to be two way,serious and also quite good for the times when I am delivering the funnies or heaping the Scornsun

I take it things are Ok for you Mr.Savage?

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/01/2013 11:03 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1


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