SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

Last post,the region of the Hyder Flare now looks ripe for a new region to develop [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] I'll be watching.

Night(ish)People

Yes,I think it is this one [link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov] visible coming from the South-West.

Good Eyes Isis



:isis:

72 Hour Solar Doom. There was a thread posted and I am certain you all have seen but I justed wanted to post "72 Hour Solar Doom." We need some solar doom and some that are out there who were fucked by the system need it it more than anyone right now.

I counted a couple of filament eruptions. Am I wrong?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

tick tock just a matter of time

Are the CMEs launched from those big or small? Earth-headed?

Last Edited by Solar Guardian on 02/09/2013 07:10 AM

Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]




SO provided a addendum video this morning.


[link to www.youtube.com]

We are just entering the stage of the solar maximum were we shall see some REAL fireworks,the next few months will be crazy...

If anyone who reads this has not prepped you have eyes that can not see,maybe its time to wake up because the grid is going to be taken out...............

Good morning all.

Some catch-up reading to do. I hope everyone is well.

Nice shot of the CME from the LDE-Hyder

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]



(is that earth off to the right?)

Last Edited by Da fuq on 02/09/2013 11:17 AM

And to think it's only gonna get worse.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 02/09/2013 11:17 AM

Wrong date. Those images are from Feb. 6th...the CME that missed us yesterday.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] lol, still asleep. Nothin gets by hugh...



Last Edited by Da fuq on 02/09/2013 11:45 AM

Another slow CME with a northward trajectory...possible glancing blow IMO.

CACTus CME Details:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

STEREO Ahead Cor 2 movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SEEDS Lasco movie:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

NOAA Discussion-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels due to a long duration C2 flare. The
flare began at 09/0530 UTC, peaked at 09/0640 UTC and ended at 09/0726
UTC. This two-ribbon, Hyder flare erupted along a 27 degree NE-SW
oriented, quiescent filament centered near N23W06. Imagery from STEREO
Ahead COR2 imagery indicated a CME lifted off the NE limb, first
observed at 09/0709 UTC. Subsequent LASCO C2 and C3 imagery revealed a
partial-halo CME lifted off the N-W limb, first visible on C3 at 09/0806
UTC. Initial shock velocity estimates put the plane-of-sky speed at
about 500 km/s. It appears most of the ejecta has a northly trajectory.
Region 1670 (N19E06) indicated the most change during the period.
Intermediate spot growth was observed coupled with an increase in area
and development of a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. This region, as
well as the remander of the disk and limb, was quiet and stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (09 - 11 Feb)
with a slight chance for an M-class flare from developing Region 1670.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

New cone model shows it missing to the north...glancing blow possible.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

Good (still!!) morning Hugh

The thing that strikes me odd is that regardless of the size of the CME, filament eruption, etc, the velocity of these ejecta are so much slower over the last +/- 6 months ...

Hello, 66Shouldn't you be out on your snowmobile? Haha. The big fast CMEs usually come from the high M's and X's and we haven't seen too many of those lately as you well know. What puzzles me is we haven't seen any geomagnetic storms for looong time now. Even the CMEs projected to be direct hit never seem to get here or barely cause a ripple in the magnetosphere. Also, the southern hemisphere has had a huge drought in active regions and flaring spots. It's been real boring, but still we're going on two years without a spotless day. It's much too soon to be pondering a Grand Minimum period IMO.

Why don't you check with your ON-line retard.

Looks like 1670 is our best bet for a flare today.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 40 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Feb 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1665 N13W72 244 0120 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1667 N23W25 197 0080 Cso 06 04 Beta
1669 N07E11 162 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha
1670 N19E12 161 0070 Dao 05 10 Beta [-Gamma]

If you read my previous post, they upgraded 1670 to Beta-Gamma this morning.

HMI Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1670 Growing-
:1670:
1670 Magnetogram-
:1670mag:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/09/2013 01:08 PM

I'm not sure how they come up with these forecasts but they predict a CME impact on the 12th with a 20-hour disturbance. Last time they forecast a ZERO-hour disturbance which turned out to be correct. Hmmmm.

Event Issue Date: 2013-02-09 10:22:32.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-02-12 08:13:59.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 20 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.7 Re

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/09/2013 01:18 PM

I agree about it's to rule it oit, but certainly not too early for consideration IMHO. And regard to velocity, we've both seen C's that have cruised inmuch faster, and had a bigger impact than an M.

Ineedto get backto my PC and take a look back at the velocity of that last M. I don't remember it being all the impressive.

As are the CH Streams(seemingly at least).

I'd been looking through some history on Solen.

By the way...The CME from the Filament region sucked hard.

Yeah it did.

Bad.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/09/2013 01:56 PM

Looks like an earthquake at Big Bear:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Great chance to observe the planet Mercury this month! I got a peek at it last night...



[link to www.youtube.com]

Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]