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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/09/2013 01:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm not sure how they come up with these forecasts but they predict a CME impact on the 12th with a 20-hour disturbance. Last time they forecast a ZERO-hour disturbance which turned out to be correct. Hmmmm.

Event Issue Date: 2013-02-09 10:22:32.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-02-12 08:13:59.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 20 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.7 Re

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
hiding

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 02/09/2013 01:18 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 01:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good (still!!) morning Hugh hf

The thing that strikes me odd is that regardless of the size of the CME, filament eruption, etc, the velocity of these ejecta are so much slower over the last +/- 6 months ...
 Quoting: TS66


Hello, 66hfShouldn't you be out on your snowmobile? Haha. The big fast CMEs usually come from the high M's and X's and we haven't seen too many of those lately as you well know. What puzzles me is we haven't seen any geomagnetic storms for looong time now. Even the CMEs projected to be direct hit never seem to get here or barely cause a ripple in the magnetosphere. Also, the southern hemisphere has had a huge drought in active regions and flaring spots. It's been real boring, but still we're going on two years without a spotless day. It's much too soon to be pondering a Grand Minimum period IMO.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I agree about it's to rule it oit, but certainly not too early for consideration IMHO. And regard to velocity, we've both seen C's that have cruised inmuch faster, and had a bigger impact than an M.

Ineedto get backto my PC and take a look back at the velocity of that last M. I don't remember it being all the impressive.
Spittin'Cesium

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02/09/2013 01:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good (still!!) morning Hugh hf

The thing that strikes me odd is that regardless of the size of the CME, filament eruption, etc, the velocity of these ejecta are so much slower over the last +/- 6 months ...
 Quoting: TS66


As are the CH Streams(seemingly at least).

I'd been looking through some history on Solen.

hiBy the way...The CME from the Filament region sucked hard.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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02/09/2013 01:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good (still!!) morning Hugh hf

The thing that strikes me odd is that regardless of the size of the CME, filament eruption, etc, the velocity of these ejecta are so much slower over the last +/- 6 months ...
 Quoting: TS66


As are the CH Streams(seemingly at least).

I'd been looking through some history on Solen.

hiBy the way...The CME from the Filament region sucked hard.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


chuckle Yeah it did.
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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02/09/2013 01:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good (still!!) morning Hugh hf

The thing that strikes me odd is that regardless of the size of the CME, filament eruption, etc, the velocity of these ejecta are so much slower over the last +/- 6 months ...
 Quoting: TS66


As are the CH Streams(seemingly at least).

I'd been looking through some history on Solen.

hiBy the way...The CME from the Filament region sucked hard.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


chuckle Yeah it did.
 Quoting: TS66


Bad.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/09/2013 01:56 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/09/2013 03:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looks like an earthquake at Big Bear:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]


hiding
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/09/2013 04:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great chance to observe the planet Mercury this month! I got a peek at it last night...



[link to www.youtube.com]
5a
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shenue

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02/09/2013 04:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Spittin'Cesium

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02/09/2013 04:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great chance to observe the planet Mercury this month! I got a peek at it last night...



[link to www.youtube.com]
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That though simplified was quite a good little snippet.

Thank Hughsun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 04:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
 Quoting: shenue


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/09/2013 04:47 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
02/09/2013 04:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has pushed back their prediction for Solar Maximum to Fall 2013. I guess I'll have to renew my GLP membership, LOL.

(Updated 2013/02/01)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012)due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]

The latest polar field strength graphs shows the south pole rebounding and the north already flipped. Old Sol's really confused or he's playing cat-'n'-mouse with us.
Latest WSO Polar Fields:

[link to www.leif.org]

NASA puts out rare (at least to my knowledge) press release concerning today's CME. [link to www.nasa.gov]

Science mag has blurb about the IBEX Ribbon:

[link to news.sciencemag.org]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shenue

User ID: 5263313
United States
02/09/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
 Quoting: shenue


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hi SC & Hugh and anyone else here. :-)

XOXO hugs smilie
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
joinca

User ID: 23928361
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02/09/2013 05:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting article....
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) received the first protective cage for its next-generation MQ-8C Fire Scout unmanned helicopter that will store and shield the aircraft's critical electronic components from strong electric fields and electromagnetic waves.
Without the cage, electrical components inside the helicopter would be susceptible to lightning damage and other possible electromagnetic interference (EMI) on board.
The full article is here: [link to www.robodaily.com]
goodnews
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic

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02/09/2013 05:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
 Quoting: shenue


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Very odd for the amount of 7 s we've had. That zone has.plate movement still going on
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
02/09/2013 06:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
 Quoting: shenue


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Very odd for the amount of 7 s we've had. That zone has.plate movement still going on
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hello Shadathumbs

Are you expecting this as a possible foreshock to another Quake?

Just noticed a 2.3 in Finland of all places at 1Km Depth.

Hoo.k.

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/09/2013 06:12 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 06:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting article....
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) received the first protective cage for its next-generation MQ-8C Fire Scout unmanned helicopter that will store and shield the aircraft's critical electronic components from strong electric fields and electromagnetic waves.
Without the cage, electrical components inside the helicopter would be susceptible to lightning damage and other possible electromagnetic interference (EMI) on board.
The full article is here: [link to www.robodaily.com]
goodnews
 Quoting: joinca


Faraday Cage?

Ima' have to read the article - Ta' JCAwink
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 06:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Interesting article....
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:NOC) received the first protective cage for its next-generation MQ-8C Fire Scout unmanned helicopter that will store and shield the aircraft's critical electronic components from strong electric fields and electromagnetic waves.
Without the cage, electrical components inside the helicopter would be susceptible to lightning damage and other possible electromagnetic interference (EMI) on board.
The full article is here: [link to www.robodaily.com]
goodnews
 Quoting: joinca


Faraday Cage?

Ima' have to read the article - Ta' JCAwink
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Yes,it is a fuckin' Faraday Cage1rof1

Super Tech!

chuckle

Hope you are good Bro' : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
joinca

User ID: 23928361
United States
02/09/2013 06:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Interesting article....


Faraday Cage?

Ima' have to read the article - Ta' JCAwink
 Quoting: joinca


Yes,it is a fuckin' Faraday Cage1rof1

Super Tech!

chuckle

Hope you are good Bro' : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


it probably has special isolation on the wiring coupled to it..
ohyeah

Last Edited by joinca on 02/09/2013 07:01 PM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Spittin'Cesium

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02/09/2013 07:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Interesting article....


Faraday Cage?

Ima' have to read the article - Ta' JCAwink
 Quoting: joinca


Yes,it is a fuckin' Faraday Cage1rof1

Super Tech!

chuckle

Hope you are good Bro' : )
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


it probably has special isolation on the wiring coupled to it..
ohyeah
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Nothing a little Water+Electricity can't defeat : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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02/09/2013 07:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Something happen [link to halpha.nso.edu] please!?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

User ID: 28701294
United States
02/09/2013 08:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Jeeze Santa Cruz islands still rockin'.

6.5 EQ about 1/2 hr ago

[link to quakes.globalincidentmap.com]
 Quoting: shenue


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Very odd for the amount of 7 s we've had. That zone has.plate movement still going on
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hello Shadathumbs

Are you expecting this as a possible foreshock to another Quake?

Just noticed a 2.3 in Finland of all places at 1Km Depth.

Hoo.k.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


New Guinea started swarming heavily right after the 8. It seems the plate isn't happy with how it settled and after talking with AK and Eartccries I believe that plate is still shifting. We watch and wait my friend!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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02/09/2013 08:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is our CME from the Double Filament Eruption and third Filament Diffusion [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and here is Isis's Ejection from the South-West prior to the Hyder Flare [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .

There is quite a nice spread of Ejecta from the Hyder Eruption,possibly Type III but likely to be flagged as a Type II Halo.

ripples
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 08:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Hello Shenhugs

I'd expect the aftershocks to continue for up to a Year+ as sometimes occurs with 8+ Magnitude Quakeshf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Very odd for the amount of 7 s we've had. That zone has.plate movement still going on
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hello Shadathumbs

Are you expecting this as a possible foreshock to another Quake?

Just noticed a 2.3 in Finland of all places at 1Km Depth.

Hoo.k.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


New Guinea started swarming heavily right after the 8. It seems the plate isn't happy with how it settled and after talking with AK and Eartccries I believe that plate is still shifting. We watch and wait my friend!
 Quoting: shadasonic


I'm glad you are watching the Quakes/Volcanoes Shada - Keep us updated here with gritty infosunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

User ID: 28701294
United States
02/09/2013 08:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is our CME from the Double Filament Eruption and third Filament Diffusion [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and here is Isis's Ejection from the South-West prior to the Hyder Flare [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .

There is quite a nice spread of Ejecta from the Hyder Eruption,possibly Type III but likely to be flagged as a Type II Halo.

ripples
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks Homey as I still can't get to any sites on this phone. I hate it and hope to have a new PC this week.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 08:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There is a fair bit of play between the regions in the North(the only regions)1670,1669 and S2213 have a good connection [link to sdodata.oma.be] and 1667 and S2212(where the Filament was)are at least throwing some shapes - I hold out hope for the S2213/1670 interplay to produce.

I noticed that Sols' Earth facing CH's are all Positive [link to www.solen.info] and the Plages/Regions are a mumbo-jumbo with some being reverse polarities(anyone else notice?)

sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 08:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is our CME from the Double Filament Eruption and third Filament Diffusion [link to www.sidc.oma.be] and here is Isis's Ejection from the South-West prior to the Hyder Flare [link to www.sidc.oma.be] .

There is quite a nice spread of Ejecta from the Hyder Eruption,possibly Type III but likely to be flagged as a Type II Halo.

ripples
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks Homey as I still can't get to any sites on this phone. I hate it and hope to have a new PC this week.
 Quoting: shadasonic


I hate Mobile Phones.

Grrr.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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02/09/2013 08:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


That's a lot of moisture!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 08:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has pushed back their prediction for Solar Maximum to Fall 2013. I guess I'll have to renew my GLP membership, LOL.

(Updated 2013/02/01)

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012)due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

[link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]

The latest polar field strength graphs shows the south pole rebounding and the north already flipped. Old Sol's really confused or he's playing cat-'n'-mouse with us.
Latest WSO Polar Fields:

[link to www.leif.org]

NASA puts out rare (at least to my knowledge) press release concerning today's CME. [link to www.nasa.gov]

Science mag has blurb about the IBEX Ribbon:

[link to news.sciencemag.org]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


The highlighted NASA piece on the 'Can you See me' CME is a little random - They must be bored too I spose'chuckle
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/09/2013 08:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


That's a lot of moisture!
 Quoting: Isis One


Disgusting talk...Moisture!?

Wash your mouth out Isis : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
United States
02/09/2013 08:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great chance to observe the planet Mercury this month! I got a peek at it last night...



[link to www.youtube.com]
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I checked it out tonight, couldn't make out Mars though, the horizon was a bit hazy.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

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