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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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02/19/2013 08:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1678 is at least Beta-Gamma as of now from your image above Hugh.

I can see a few smaller Polarities inside each of the Spots,no doubt it'll blow one once it reaches the Western limb : )

sun
 Quoting: SCizMe 14589973


Yep, I noticed those lightning bolts or sparks flickering for a while. Earth's magnetic footpoint is right near the western limb now, so we may see an SEP event if it ever goes off.

By the way, that giant filament seems to have disappeared from the surface. Surprisingly it produced no Hyder flare. May be a coronal rain or else a nice CME if it accelerates away from the corona.

I wonder if STEREO's lack of updates has anything to do with NASA's ISS communications troubles. Could Chinese hackers jam-up the entire inner solar system? Hahaha.

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Very anticlimactic ..... just blew off to the West.
 Quoting: TS66


You know how SLOW the CMEs are traveling like in syrup. If this filament did indeed release do you guys believe something is nullifying the electromagnetic force. Alittle bit of particle entropy. Think about itscoop
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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02/19/2013 08:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament went bye bye

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Look how the filament went drifting west, right where our new sunspot 1678 exploded with energy today,something pulling energy that direction aye?


Thread: Must Read...Our Sun has been protecting us from our Center ....Not any more though!

The opening post is quite interesting

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 02/19/2013 08:16 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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02/19/2013 08:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1678 now classified as Beta-Gamma-Delta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 51 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Feb 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1671 N16W46 075 0110 Cso 04 03 Beta
1673 S11E17 010 0090 Dac 08 24 Beta
1675 N12W09 037 0060 Cso 09 03 Beta
1676 S19E37 352 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1677 S27E38 350 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1678 N10W40 069 0130 Dai 06 14 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1679 S14E44 345 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha

AR1678-Bigger!
:2/20-1678:

From NOAA Discussion-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1678 (N10W40,
Dai/beta-gamma-delta)produced a C2 x-ray flare at 19/1051 UTC and
isolated B-class flares. Region 1678 showed significant development in
spots and magnetic complexity including a delta magnetic configuration
within its intermediate spots
. Region 1673 (S11E17, Dac/beta) showed
gradual intermediate spot growth during the period. Region 1675 (N12W09,
Cso/beta) continued to gradually decay. The remaining spotted regions
were unremarkable. An 8-degree filament centered near N26W09 erupted
around 19/0300 UTC. This eruption was associated with an Earth-directed
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated speed of 375
km/s. The bulk of the CME material appeared to be headed northward. A
large filament, roughly 35 degrees in extent and centered near S26E15,
erupted around 19/1900 UTC. Further analysis will be required to
determine the potential geoeffectiveness of this filament eruption.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

In the SDO composite images you can still see that huge filament channel. I wouldn't be surprised to see another eruption from this region.

SDO image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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02/19/2013 08:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1678 now classified as Beta-Gamma-Delta.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 51 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Feb 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1671 N16W46 075 0110 Cso 04 03 Beta
1673 S11E17 010 0090 Dac 08 24 Beta
1675 N12W09 037 0060 Cso 09 03 Beta
1676 S19E37 352 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1677 S27E38 350 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1678 N10W40 069 0130 Dai 06 14 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1679 S14E44 345 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha

AR1678-Bigger!
:2/20-1678:

From NOAA Discussion-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1678 (N10W40,
Dai/beta-gamma-delta)produced a C2 x-ray flare at 19/1051 UTC and
isolated B-class flares. Region 1678 showed significant development in
spots and magnetic complexity including a delta magnetic configuration
within its intermediate spots
. Region 1673 (S11E17, Dac/beta) showed
gradual intermediate spot growth during the period. Region 1675 (N12W09,
Cso/beta) continued to gradually decay. The remaining spotted regions
were unremarkable. An 8-degree filament centered near N26W09 erupted
around 19/0300 UTC. This eruption was associated with an Earth-directed
partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated speed of 375
km/s. The bulk of the CME material appeared to be headed northward. A
large filament, roughly 35 degrees in extent and centered near S26E15,
erupted around 19/1900 UTC. Further analysis will be required to
determine the potential geoeffectiveness of this filament eruption.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

In the SDO composite images you can still see that huge filament channel. I wouldn't be surprised to see another eruption from this region.

SDO image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



That spot didn't waste any time, expecting big things from it before it rounds the corner.

rahrah

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 02/19/2013 08:33 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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02/19/2013 08:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]


We just had another filament lift off the far west side, mid equator latitude
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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02/19/2013 09:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's a close-up movie of the first CME/filament eruption near 1678:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Also, I stumbled on this article about recent analysis of solar cycles' plasma flow-

When the plasma nears the poles it sinks, then flows back toward the equator. The latitude at which that sinking occurs turns out to be very important, according to findings from a recent study ...(snip)
Modulations in plasma flux and the flow of plasma speed might explain why the latest solar cycle, number 23, was longer than previous cycles, the researchers thought.
"Cycles 19, 20, 21 and 22 each lasted about 10.5 years," said Dikpati. "Cycle 23 lasted notably longer — 12.6 years."

Plasma flow

What they did see is that incycles 20 to 22 the poleward flow reached about 60 degrees while in cycle 23, plasma flow apparently reached all the way to the pole. This could be the difference responsible for the differences between the cycles.

article and related images:
[link to www.livescience.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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02/19/2013 09:36 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here's a close-up movie of the first CME/filament eruption near 1678:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Also, I stumbled on this article about recent analysis of solar cycles' plasma flow-

When the plasma nears the poles it sinks, then flows back toward the equator. The latitude at which that sinking occurs turns out to be very important, according to findings from a recent study ...(snip)
Modulations in plasma flux and the flow of plasma speed might explain why the latest solar cycle, number 23, was longer than previous cycles, the researchers thought.
"Cycles 19, 20, 21 and 22 each lasted about 10.5 years," said Dikpati. "Cycle 23 lasted notably longer — 12.6 years."

Plasma flow

What they did see is that incycles 20 to 22 the poleward flow reached about 60 degrees while in cycle 23, plasma flow apparently reached all the way to the pole. This could be the difference responsible for the differences between the cycles.

article and related images:
[link to www.livescience.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thats good info, kinda what I was looking for. We could live a very long time and not figure out our star completely. I just want to know more than what I'm probably capable of handling.
Greatly appreciate your experience Hugh, you help out so much!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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02/19/2013 10:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]


Watch this guy work!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shenue

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02/19/2013 11:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A Massive Thank You to all you guys - I am so glad I ever found SolarWatch(thank you NiNz)and all you awesome Beings!

 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Spittin'

BirthdayBaloonSm Hugs N Kisses
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
Isis One

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02/19/2013 11:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hiFolks!

This is great action for a tards 33rd Birthday!

Nice one Sol - new you wouldn't let me down!

1678 - Whoa!


rockon
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Happy 33rd in '13 SC, many more my friend!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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02/19/2013 11:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


We've got a big filament getting ready to snap and a sunspot on the west limb thats gowing like mad. Seems the suns slowly focussing in our direction. Even with the polarity flip(suns), we can still have big events for 6 to 9 months,mingling of magnetic and electric varience makes old sol very unstable at this point.
 Quoting: shadasonic


This is what I am concerned with. Whatever was "blocking" the sun's Earth facing activity, may soon be lifting and we have been in such a drought, will our magnetosphere even hold up to an X-10 flare like it should?

Watching this [link to halpha.nso.edu] and it looks like it is lifting to me, but the screen flickers at the very end so hard to tell. What ya think Shad?
 Quoting: whiteangel

I was thinking the same thing when I viewed it this morning. I have been refreshing for the last hour, but no update. I was able to stop it on 84 of 84. The time stamp is 02-19-13 10:10:34. That would mean that the video has not been updated in almost 7 hours. I think it skipped away, and we are not seeing it fly off. If you stop the video at frames 83 and 84, you can see the connection spot lighten up like it is letting loose. I am looking for other real-time videos to see if the filament is still flapping.
 Quoting: muse_1111


This is from over on FOG thread. What say you Suntards?? I show it stopping at 10:10 UTC. Anyone have a more up-to-date source??
 Quoting: whiteangel


I was wondering about that too, it didn't seem like it was updating last night when Geo and I were watching it. I'm not cought up yet so I'm curious if there is an updated clip showing what happened to the filament.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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02/19/2013 11:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A Massive Thank You to all you guys - I am so glad I ever found SolarWatch(thank you NiNz)and all you awesome Beings!

Thanks also to Sol for going bonkers Today!

Lots of action we got going on,I need to do a little catching up but,frack [link to halpha.nso.edu] oh yes he did!

ahhh

sunhf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


ahhh, I knew it would be here, you rock SC, thanks have to read now to see if we have incoming.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
shadasonic

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02/19/2013 11:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Much love and appreciation to you Isis!hf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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02/19/2013 11:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hiFolks : )

I am a little frizzled around the edges at presenthf

coffeecat
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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02/20/2013 12:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Much love and appreciation to you Isis!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hi Shade, nice to have you here with me this evening, its usually just Da, Geo, Hugh, SC and I holding down the night shift.....I have no idea when SC sleeps, lol.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
shadasonic

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02/20/2013 12:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hiFolks : )

I am a little frizzled around the edges at presenthf

coffeecat
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Love ya buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
whiteangel

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02/20/2013 12:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Much love and appreciation to you Isis!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hi Shade, nice to have you here with me this evening, its usually just Da, Geo, Hugh, SC and I holding down the night shift.....I have no idea when SC sleeps, lol.
 Quoting: Isis One


He doesn't to my knowledge!!!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 12:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:dontquestion:
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 12:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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02/20/2013 12:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anyone know if this guy was earth directed?

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Isis One

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02/20/2013 12:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:dontquestion:
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Too cute,

:monkeyface:
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 12:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:dontquestion:
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Too cute,

:monkeyface:
 Quoting: Isis One


Frazzledsunhf

reallife
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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02/20/2013 12:42 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How Human does that fellow look?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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02/20/2013 12:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:dontquestion:
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Too cute,

:monkeyface:
 Quoting: Isis One


Frazzledsunhf

reallife
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Nibooboo
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 12:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How Human does that fellow look?
 Quoting: Isis One


Pretty real!

hf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 12:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:dontquestion:
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Too cute,

:monkeyface:
 Quoting: Isis One


Frazzledsunhf

reallife
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Nibooboo
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Fuckoffbabies
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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02/20/2013 01:00 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Honey, time to get off the computer!!

play
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
02/20/2013 01:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Honey, time to get off the computer!!

play
 Quoting: Isis One


playing safe

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/20/2013 01:06 AM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/20/2013 01:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just thought I'd point out before I fall asleep that GOES X-Rays is'nt updating [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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02/20/2013 01:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just thought I'd point out before I fall asleep that GOES X-Rays is'nt updating [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


PopcornMunchin

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