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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

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02/23/2013 01:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sc24

here we are
 Quoting: shadasonic


That is exactly what I wanted to be posted. Bless you Shad!! hf
 Quoting: whiteangel


No prob hon!hf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
whiteangel

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02/23/2013 02:00 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought 1678 might have at least given us a M-flare before leaving for good. C2.9
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

Last Edited by whiteangel on 02/23/2013 02:13 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
Spittin'Cesium

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02/23/2013 02:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And thank you SC!! One of the things your link also showed me is Max has possibly been reached as of a year ago. Won't know for a year or more as Sol is known to be anything but predictable!
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yes,that is a major possibility,Imo - Though I'd never say never.

Here is my diatribe regarding this idea that Max. came and went that I had to trawl for(again)hf

'Funny you mention that now...I have just been trawling through some older Solar Data/Stats and concluded that the period around November 2011 resembled a Solar Max. in terms of Sunspot Number and Flare Output,here -

[link to www.solen.info] Note the Sunspot Number around 2011/11/06 is 209 which is higher than present.

I will post some of the images and data from that period to try and show that this cycle(as we know)is way,way off...here is the Sun as of November 6th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. page [link to www.solen.info] Note that the Southern CH is Blue(positive)and the North CH Red(negative) - Compare the CH Polarity with the present,I'll use the December Rotation to illustrate my point [link to www.solen.info] Yes,opposite.(this has changed since posting)

Now some other images from the late 2011 period along with the page so that you can view the Stats. for yourselves -

Solar Image October 2011 [link to www.solen.info] and page [link to www.solen.info] .

November 4th 2011 [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11330 [N07W85] rotated partly out of view at the northwest limb.
Region 11332 [N32W54] was quiet and stable.
Region 11334 [N13W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 11336 [N15E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11337 [N18E27] developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11338 [S13E43] was quiet and stable.
Region 11339 [N19E58] is a complex, compact, very large region with the potential to produce X10+ class flares. There is a significant magnetic delta structure in the central part and the region will likely continue to produce lots of flares. Flares: C4.4 at 00:18, C3.4 at 01:30, C2.9 at 03:25, C3.2 at 07:15, C2.1 at 09:44, C3.4 at 10:11, M2.5 at 11:11, C1.5 at 14:08, C3.8 at 14:54, C2.2 at 18:09, C4.5 at 18:53, impulsive major X1.9/2B at 20:27, C5.4/1N at 22:18, C9.2 at 23:13, M2.1 at 23:36 UTC. Initially it appeared as if a large CME observed late in the day was associated with the X1 event. However, the source of that CME was backsided.

Jumping forward to July 5th 2012 [link to www.solen.info] [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C5 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 11 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11512 [S15W84] added trailing spots and was quiet.
Region 11513 [N15W37] decayed slowly and remains capable of producing C and M class flares. Flare: M1.8/2N at 16:39 UTC. This event was associated with a very weak type II radio sweep and a small CME. The CME was observed off the east limb in STEREO-A and west limb in STEREO-B and could reach Earth on July 7. The CME was not easily observed in LASCO imagery.
Region 11514 [S16W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11515 [S18W25] displayed impressive development in the central spot section. Several magnetic delta structures are evident as negative polarity spots are trapped inside positive polarity flux. This has caused a significant increase in the background x-ray level. There's a high probability of major M or X class flares. Flares: C5.1/1F at 01:45, C6.1 at 04:10, M2.3 at 04:37, C6.7 at 09:06, major M5.3/2B at 09:55, C5.8 at 11:17, C5.6 at 14:13, M1.3/1F at 14:40, C8.2 at 14:49, C6.4 at 15:50, C6.9 at 16:12, C9.5 at 21:27, M4.6 at 22:09, C7.4 at 22:45, M1.2 at 23:55 UTC.
Region 11516 [N12W53] decayed slowly and quetly.
Region 11517 [N19W13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 11518 [N09E68] rotated into view on July 3 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 11519 [S15E76] rotated into view with a single spot. (I can clearly remember AR1515(Isis)as she put out a great show)

July 6th [link to www.solen.info] Stats. - The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.

At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 14 spotted active regions (in 2K resolution SDO images).

Region 11513 [N15W51] decayed losing most of the small spots and simpified magnetically. The single penumbra was mostly unchanged.
Region 11514 [S18W49] decayed further and could soon become spotless.
Region 11515 [S17W38] lost a few spots and what was a major magnetic delta decreased in size and importance. There are currently small magnetic delta structures in all large penumbrae. M class flares are highly likely and there's a chance of an X class flare. Flares: M1.2 at 00:38, M3.7 at 01:10, M1.2 at 01:31, C9.9 at 01:41, C8.1 at 02:05, C7.9 at 02:26, M3.3 at 02:42, M1.1 at 03:31, M7.8 at 03:36, M3.0 at 03:42, M1.1 at 04:45, C8.5 at 05:05, M1.2 at 06:53, M1.6 at 07:45, C8.0 at 09:30, M2.3 at 10:48, C9.2 at 10:56, M8.7 at 11:44, M1.4 at 13:20, C9.5 at 13:55, C8.4 at 14:46, C6.1 at 15:59 ... UTC. In addition 2 M and several C flares were recorded later in the day. The flare list is according to SDO/SAM/EVE 1 minute measurements.
Region 11517 [N19W26] added a few spots but lost mature penumbra.
Region 11518 [N09E53] was quiet and stable.
Region 11519 [S16E62] was quiet and stable.

Anyway,I'll stop there(excuse me folks)I am pretty sure you get the point I am trying to make...I invite anyone to go back and view other Dates ranging from around October/November 2011 through Mid 2012 and note the Magnetic Complexity of the Active Regions,the SS Number and output in X-Rays as well as the SW Speeds and migrating CHs' and I think you may conclude the same as I am beginning to - That Solar Max. happened already though we may get another short round if the Solar output in X-Rays increases and the Sunspot count goes above the November 2011 high of 209.

Again,please excuse my diatribe,I can't help it

________________________________________________________


So,as you can see ^ ^ the action back then was a lot more so than now.

The End.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/23/2013 02:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thought 1678 might have at least given us a M-flare before leaving for good. C2.9
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: whiteangel


Pretty sure those Two Flares may well have been M Class Angel,just the region has rounded the limb now.

I'm waiting to see if there were any decent CMEs from that Double Flaring.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
madajs

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02/23/2013 02:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And thank you SC!! One of the things your link also showed me is Max has possibly been reached as of a year ago. Won't know for a year or more as Sol is known to be anything but predictable!
 Quoting: whiteangel

It's unpredictable but at the same time there are mechanisms behind things... The Sun's south pole only recently showed progress towards reversal, and it is the magnetic convulsions from the pole reversal that causes the surge in activity.

Considering how much work the Sun still has left to do to shed it's old polarity configuration (it's south pole is still going to need a lot of wrestling to be brought to heel), I am certain a second surge of activity is coming.
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
whiteangel

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02/23/2013 02:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I remember the X-flare in July just before I went on vacation and waiting to see if we would get hit with a large CME before I left. Sure didn't want to be on the road and boom! Since then, we have had very little activity, some but nothing like it was before say March 2012.

This lead to me remember a lot of papers I had read over the years about a short and small solar max leading to a longer than normal minimum that could even turn into a Dalton or Maunder Minimum. All the hype on so called global warming (should be called Climate Change only) when only the US was hot last year - we broke all kinds of heat records, but the rest of the world was cooling.

There is still talk about how the sun seems whiter and hotter than it use to be. Seems to me it would seem that way during a max - just deductive reasoning there that if the sun is putting out more energy then it would seem hotter and whiter. It will be interesting to note if people begin reporting that the sun is more yellow and cooler in a few years AND if the use of sunscreen goes down!

If our sun is going to sleep that doesn't mean it can't still pop off large flares or filaments, just not the norm anymore.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
Anonymous Coward
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02/23/2013 02:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks sc, wa, shad..-reading and learning! hf rgds rp : )
NiNzrez
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02/23/2013 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


morning guys :)

the high background levels along with this C flare are from the large sunspot just over the western limb
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

this sunspot became more complex a few days back. it waited till it got over that western limb to let loose
[link to spaceweather.com]

looks like a very large LDE flare. if earth facing, this would have been at least a high M
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hello SolStarsunhf

Typical behaviour from Sol hey?

Good stuff with MySolarAlerts by the way NiNz et. al.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


very typical
same thing i thought would happen when spaceweather made their post the other day about this sunspots growth
i said to a friend "just in time for it to rotate out of earths view! of course"


and hey thanks :) been working kinda hard on that over this past few weeks
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hahaaa!

More or less verbatim what we said in here also : )

'No Doubt it will pop off a Low-Mid M Class just as it rounds the limb'hf

Yes,I use MySolarAlerts almost Daily as a quick portal to other pages when I need to and always use it to see current Bz/Coronagraphs/Solen/DRap/SEPs and a jump through to SDOsun

Personally,I think a 'SolarWatch' Magazine with awesome images and write-ups would be a great idea(Old'Skool type Magazine)

: )

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


your to kind :)
hf
sounds

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02/23/2013 04:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I spent some time making a little video re: sunspots today.
Hope you guys take a lookhf

[link to s1245.beta.photobucket.com]

peace
 Quoting: sounds


Sounds!

That was totally Gorgeouscheersun

Awesome,awesome,awesome.

Will this be a regular feature then Sounds?

hf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hi guys Thanks for looking, and the generous commentshf.

Will it be a regular occurrence? I don’t know maybe just depends on my weekly time restraints, but the sun and star viewing is a new hobby of mine so I will probably say in a much condensed version . { maybe just the sunspots pics of the day= week}

Here are the links of the Photos of the sunspots I had taken during the past week:


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

Much Respect.

peace
Political correctness without wisdom ,is just Political nonsense.
joinca

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02/23/2013 04:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did find this info which is from Jan 2013\ [link to ktwop.wordpress.com]

*snip
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012)due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
***************
I would copy the image but doesn't seem to be working for me (computer is acting funky right now) but scroll down and take a look at image SC24 compared to SC5 in 2011 is shown below:
 Quoting: whiteangel


Interesting part of this article...
It is only a matter of time before the belief that carbon dioxide concentration (whether man-made or not) causes global warming will have to be completely discarded. But there is so much money now riding on this belief (and even though there is only conjecture and no direct evidence for this belief), that we will likely see a decade or more of rationalization of reality before the belief is abandoned.
rockon
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
NiNzrez (OP)

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02/23/2013 04:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like spaceweather is also watching this sunspot region thats about to rotate our direction

FARSIDE HOTSPOT: As big sunspot AR1678 departs, another active region is approaching. NASA's STEREO-B probe, stationed over the farside of the sun, is monitoring a significant ultraviolet hotspot. It is circled in this 360-degree Stoneyhurst projection of the entire solar surface:
[link to spaceweather.com]

i also included this in todays new report post
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
it is the same region some of us have been watching as it rotates this direction and its BIG
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

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02/23/2013 04:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did find this info which is from Jan 2013\ [link to ktwop.wordpress.com]

*snip
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012)due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
***************
I would copy the image but doesn't seem to be working for me (computer is acting funky right now) but scroll down and take a look at image SC24 compared to SC5 in 2011 is shown below:
 Quoting: whiteangel


Interesting part of this article...
It is only a matter of time before the belief that carbon dioxide concentration (whether man-made or not) causes global warming will have to be completely discarded. But there is so much money now riding on this belief (and even though there is only conjecture and no direct evidence for this belief), that we will likely see a decade or more of rationalization of reality before the belief is abandoned.
rockon
 Quoting: joinca


Agreed,but I honestly think they'd sooner abandon Humanity(at our current Numbers)then abandon the text books that lend the minions the credence for the Sterilization of most.

Naturally the above is just hyperbole dribbled from my Conspiritus Cortexwink
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/23/2013 05:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like spaceweather is also watching this sunspot region thats about to rotate our direction

FARSIDE HOTSPOT: As big sunspot AR1678 departs, another active region is approaching. NASA's STEREO-B probe, stationed over the farside of the sun, is monitoring a significant ultraviolet hotspot. It is circled in this 360-degree Stoneyhurst projection of the entire solar surface:
[link to spaceweather.com]

i also included this in todays new report post
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
it is the same region some of us have been watching as it rotates this direction and its BIG
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you NiNz.

Yes,I can see on 94 Angstroms that the East Beast should be kinda' tasty [link to sdodata.oma.be] <--- What I am watching with eager eyes is that area of intense energy being formed in the lower Corona above 1678,also visible on Soft X-Ray [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and looks awesome here too [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] .

Waiting for a violent kiss to spark it offcheersun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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02/23/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I spent some time making a little video re: sunspots today.
Hope you guys take a lookhf

[link to s1245.beta.photobucket.com]

peace
 Quoting: sounds


Sounds!

That was totally Gorgeouscheersun

Awesome,awesome,awesome.

Will this be a regular feature then Sounds?

hf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Hi guys Thanks for looking, and the generous commentshf.

Will it be a regular occurrence? I don’t know maybe just depends on my weekly time restraints, but the sun and star viewing is a new hobby of mine so I will probably say in a much condensed version . { maybe just the sunspots pics of the day= week}

Here are the links of the Photos of the sunspots I had taken during the past week:


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]


[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

Much Respect.

peace
 Quoting: sounds


Puckerthumbs
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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02/23/2013 05:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And thank you SC!! One of the things your link also showed me is Max has possibly been reached as of a year ago. Won't know for a year or more as Sol is known to be anything but predictable!
 Quoting: whiteangel

It's unpredictable but at the same time there are mechanisms behind things... The Sun's south pole only recently showed progress towards reversal, and it is the magnetic convulsions from the pole reversal that causes the surge in activity.

Considering how much work the Sun still has left to do to shed it's old polarity configuration (it's south pole is still going to need a lot of wrestling to be brought to heel), I am certain a second surge of activity is coming.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree, alot of fight left
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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02/23/2013 05:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And thank you SC!! One of the things your link also showed me is Max has possibly been reached as of a year ago. Won't know for a year or more as Sol is known to be anything but predictable!
 Quoting: whiteangel

It's unpredictable but at the same time there are mechanisms behind things... The Sun's south pole only recently showed progress towards reversal, and it is the magnetic convulsions from the pole reversal that causes the surge in activity.

Considering how much work the Sun still has left to do to shed it's old polarity configuration (it's south pole is still going to need a lot of wrestling to be brought to heel), I am certain a second surge of activity is coming.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree, solar activity has been coming in waves and the tide hasn't gone out yet. On this chart notice our two highest daily SS counts have been rather recent. In between the peaks we see a lot of low activity and filaments.

[link to www.solen.info]

Jan 8, 2013:
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Nov. 13, 2012:
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

It's much too soon to worry about 'grand minimums' where we go years or decades without any sunspots. Keep in mind, this all really new stuff we're helping to discover. This is the very first solar max we have an amazing instrument like the Solar Dynamics Observatory; and only the second max with SOHO and STEREO. Much of what we know has been discovered in the past 15 years! The first Coronal Mass Ejection (save possibly Carrington's) was detected in 1971-less than 42 years ago.

We really don't know how all this fits into the Big Picture until it's over and recorded history. Then we can puzzle this together with all of the past observations and look for patterns, cycles, etc and make new forecasts. I feel blessed to witness these events; many never witnessed by humans before.

I'm looking for missing links now....
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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02/23/2013 06:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
did we just get blasted?? look at end just now


[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Current Solar Activity
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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02/23/2013 06:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
did we just get blasted?? look at end just now


[link to stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu]

Current Solar Activity
 Quoting: Goofy for God


hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
shadasonic

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02/23/2013 06:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Heres the collection coming our way, soon to be renumbered

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 02/23/2013 06:57 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
MissionInvisible

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thank you for that link though Angel!

I just scanned over some of it quickly and it is juicy,I have it bookmarked to read through in a little Minute.

Here is Angels link [link to ktwop.wordpress.com] for the folks who always miss the top of thread pageswink

Again,thanking you ta' muchly WhiteAngelsun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Thanks for posting the link again, some interesting information here. Its always nice to see these kinds of things in a graph/timeline to highlight points!
"So you're made of detritus [from exploded stars]. Get over it. Or better yet...Celebrate it. After all, what nobler thought can one cherish than that the universe lives within us all?"

Neil deGrasse Tyson



"We were told that the changes in our world would become the catalyst for ones within us..."
Fractal Time, Gregg Braden
Goofy for God
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Ben Bova Time!!!Mars 2018

abduct
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Hugh M Eye

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02/23/2013 08:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ODDS & ENDS AGAIN: Looking for old missing links and found this...

Motherlode of movies from the 12 years of the TRACE mission which studied solar activity 'til 2010. Movie #7 from the last solar maximum was pretty cool:

[link to trace.lmsal.com]

...and this press release from NRL last month about a CME Cannibalism event in 2008 (they really take their time don't they?). Their version of CME 'cannibalism' is called a 'super-elastic collision' and it's very complex.--

Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory and the University of Science and Technology in Hefei, China have captured the super-elastic collision of two coronal mass ejections in the heliosphere. They recorded the surprising event, which occurred in November 2008....

Sometimes, collisions between solid objects lead to an increase of the kinetic energy of the system. This unusual process, called super-elastic collision, can occur between coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the largest magnetized plasmoids ejected from the Sun. The super-elastic collision that NRL researchers captured using SECCHI was in the heliosphere with clear imaging observations during November 2-8, 2008.

The two CMEs were ejected on November 2nd at about 00:35 UT and 22:35 UT, respectively, when the STEREO-A and B spacecraft were located at around 40° to the west and east of the Sun-Earth line, respectively. Being fast, the second CME (called CME2) caught up and collided with the first CME (called CME1). The apparent collision of the two CMEs began at approximately 18:49 UT on November 3rd and lasted for about 16 hours.

During this time interval, the researchers saw an arc structure deforming, with a brightening caused by the compression of the CMEs - the result of a soft object colliding with a hard object. CME1's kinetic evolution cannot be explained only by solar wind acceleration. The research team analyzed the collision of the two CMEs and determined that there was a 73% likelihood of this being a super-elastic collision.

Vourlidas explains that when the (CME) plasmoids collide, the process is similar to that of elastic balls, which include a pre-collision phase, a compression phase, a restitution phase and a post-collision phase. After the collision, CME2 was deflected eastwards (towards the Sun-Earth line) while CME1 was deflected westwards and accelerated slightly, as expected in a super-elastic collision.
more here:
[link to www.nrl.navy.mil]

ACE News- They're refining their CME-IP Shock models based on past events-
[link to www.srl.caltech.edu]

SUN-tard of the Week: singer Jermaine Jackson has legally changed his name to JackSUN.....tard, LOL:
[link to losangeles.cbslocal.com]
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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02/23/2013 08:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And thank you SC!! One of the things your link also showed me is Max has possibly been reached as of a year ago. Won't know for a year or more as Sol is known to be anything but predictable!
 Quoting: whiteangel

It's unpredictable but at the same time there are mechanisms behind things... The Sun's south pole only recently showed progress towards reversal, and it is the magnetic convulsions from the pole reversal that causes the surge in activity.

Considering how much work the Sun still has left to do to shed it's old polarity configuration (it's south pole is still going to need a lot of wrestling to be brought to heel), I am certain a second surge of activity is coming.
 Quoting: madajs


I agree, solar activity has been coming in waves and the tide hasn't gone out yet. On this chart notice our two highest daily SS counts have been rather recent. In between the peaks we see a lot of low activity and filaments.

[link to www.solen.info]

Jan 8, 2013:
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

Nov. 13, 2012:
[link to www.spaceweather.com]

It's much too soon to worry about 'grand minimums' where we go years or decades without any sunspots. Keep in mind, this all really new stuff we're helping to discover. This is the very first solar max we have an amazing instrument like the Solar Dynamics Observatory; and only the second max with SOHO and STEREO. Much of what we know has been discovered in the past 15 years! The first Coronal Mass Ejection (save possibly Carrington's) was detected in 1971-less than 42 years ago.

We really don't know how all this fits into the Big Picture until it's over and recorded history. Then we can puzzle this together with all of the past observations and look for patterns, cycles, etc and make new forecasts. I feel blessed to witness these events; many never witnessed by humans before.

I'm looking for missing links now....
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hello Hugh/Madjas - It is'nt just this Cycle so far that has folks wondering,it is also the preceding Cycles correlations to the pattern of others that led to previous 'Grand Minimums' along with longer count Solar Cycles and our place in time within those.

I'm not saying anything definitively but instead discussing the possibility and why others also feel they are seeing a trend - The Sun need not conform to the timetables we Humans have ascribed to it and we do still have a way to go yet in this Cycle as you point out.

Im'a do some snipping,first Solar Cycles(known ones and hypothesised)

'The sun goes through its cycles as it will and at its own pace and we continue to struggle to try and decipher the various cycles that exist, what causes them and what effects they have on the earth. Some of the cycles known or hypothesised to exist are the:

11 year sunspot cycle
22 year magnetic cycle
87 year Gleissberg cycle
166 year “unnamed” cycle
210 years Suess or de Vries cycle
2,300 years Hallstat cycle
6000 years Xapsos and Burke cycle
[link to ktwop.wordpress.com]

The current potential Minimum was apparently predicted by a chap by the Name Theodor Landscheidt,I'll snip out some about the chap and his reasoning -

'Theodor Landscheidt (born in 1927 in Bremen, Germany, died on May 20, 2004) was an author and amateur climatologist. In 1989, Landscheidt forecast a period of sunspot minima after 1990, accompanied by increased cold, with a stronger minimum and more intense cold which should peak in 2030 which he described as the “Landscheidt Minimum”

An abstract of his Paper 'New Little Ice Age instead of Global Warming?' -

'Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8°C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth'

So,if we are entering a new Minimum will it be of the Dalton type or the more severe Maunder?

'It took 500 years with reducing solar activity to get from the Medieval maximum to the the grand Maunder minimum. The Dalton minimum came a little over a 100 years later as solar activity was increasing to its modern maximum in the years preceding Solar Cycle 22 (c. 1890 – 1990). Now with the Landscheidt minimum seemingly well established, SC 23 and the current SC 24 show a clear trend of declining solar activity. SC’s 22, 23 and 24 are remarkably similar to SC’s 3, 4 and 5. The Dalton minimum coincided with SC’s 5 and 6.

It is reasonable to assume that climatic conditions over the next 20 – 30 years will resemble those prevailing between 1790 and 1820. But SC24 has a way to go yet and it could be that solar activity for SC24 and 25 will be even lower than during the Dalton minimum and perhaps closer to the Spörer minimum but perhaps not as deep as the Maunder minimum
' - Plots [link to upload.wikimedia.org] [link to upload.wikimedia.org] [link to ktwop.files.wordpress.com] .

All can be found through here [link to ktwop.wordpress.com] <--- Angels link.

So I'll conclude just by saying that there is some pretty decent evidence that a possible 'Grand Minimum' could be argued for but also,nothing is set in Stone.

Much respect to all : )

sunhf

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 02/23/2013 08:37 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
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02/23/2013 08:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CME.

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by #Geomagnetic_Storm# on 02/23/2013 08:51 PM
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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02/23/2013 08:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ODDS & ENDS AGAIN: Looking for old missing links and found this...

Motherlode of movies from the 12 years of the TRACE mission which studied solar activity 'til 2010. Movie #7 from the last solar maximum was pretty cool:

[link to trace.lmsal.com]

...and this press release from NRL last month about a CME Cannibalism event in 2008 (they really take their time don't they?). Their version of CME 'cannibalism' is called a 'super-elastic collision' and it's very complex.--

Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory and the University of Science and Technology in Hefei, China have captured the super-elastic collision of two coronal mass ejections in the heliosphere. They recorded the surprising event, which occurred in November 2008....

Sometimes, collisions between solid objects lead to an increase of the kinetic energy of the system. This unusual process, called super-elastic collision, can occur between coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the largest magnetized plasmoids ejected from the Sun. The super-elastic collision that NRL researchers captured using SECCHI was in the heliosphere with clear imaging observations during November 2-8, 2008.

The two CMEs were ejected on November 2nd at about 00:35 UT and 22:35 UT, respectively, when the STEREO-A and B spacecraft were located at around 40° to the west and east of the Sun-Earth line, respectively. Being fast, the second CME (called CME2) caught up and collided with the first CME (called CME1). The apparent collision of the two CMEs began at approximately 18:49 UT on November 3rd and lasted for about 16 hours.

During this time interval, the researchers saw an arc structure deforming, with a brightening caused by the compression of the CMEs - the result of a soft object colliding with a hard object. CME1's kinetic evolution cannot be explained only by solar wind acceleration. The research team analyzed the collision of the two CMEs and determined that there was a 73% likelihood of this being a super-elastic collision.

Vourlidas explains that when the (CME) plasmoids collide, the process is similar to that of elastic balls, which include a pre-collision phase, a compression phase, a restitution phase and a post-collision phase. After the collision, CME2 was deflected eastwards (towards the Sun-Earth line) while CME1 was deflected westwards and accelerated slightly, as expected in a super-elastic collision.
more here:
[link to www.nrl.navy.mil]

ACE News- They're refining their CME-IP Shock models based on past events-
[link to www.srl.caltech.edu]

SUN-tard of the Week: singer Jermaine Jackson has legally changed his name to JackSUN.....tard, LOL:
[link to losangeles.cbslocal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


So they are saying they kinda' bobbled in and out,up,around and then split heading opposite directions?

chuckle

Ta' Hugh for sharing that and the JacobianSun tard : )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
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02/23/2013 08:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


From the earlier Flaring from 1678(though they are North-West)or the Southern Filament that did a little shake earlier.

Thank you Geo.

I'm waiting/watching this awesome blob of Plasmas above 1678 [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] to be sparked off : )

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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02/23/2013 09:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I spent some time making a little video re: sunspots today.
Hope you guys take a lookhf

[link to s1245.beta.photobucket.com]

peace
 Quoting: sounds


sounds, very impressive, as good as professionally done
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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02/23/2013 09:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


Earth directed?
sounds

User ID: 16285636
Australia
02/23/2013 09:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I spent some time making a little video re: sunspots today.
Hope you guys take a lookhf

[link to s1245.beta.photobucket.com]

peace
 Quoting: sounds


sounds, very impressive, as good as professionally done
 Quoting: Isis One


flower whistle
Political correctness without wisdom ,is just Political nonsense.
NiNzrez
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02/23/2013 09:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NASA Video: CME, Solar Flare & Coronal Rain In Unison
[link to guardianlv.com]

News