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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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02/28/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BREAKING: Third Radiation Belt Discovered Around Earth!

Let me take pleasure in scooping Spaceweather.com and Suspicious Observer on this one, hehe.

This newly discovered 'Van Allen radiation belt' is seemingly a direct consequence of solar activity. NASA scientists were surprised because they had no idea this existed. From the NASA press release-

"But a group of scientists on the mission made a case for changing the plan. They asked that the Relativistic Electron Proton Telescope (REPT) be turned on early – just three days after launch -- in order that its observations would overlap with another mission called SAMPEX (Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer), that was soon going to de-orbit and re-enter Earth's atmosphere.

It was a lucky decision. Shortly before REPT turned on, solar activity on the sun had sent energy toward Earth that caused the radiation belts to swell. The REPT instrument worked well from the moment it was turned on Sep. 1. It made observations of these new particles trapped in the belts, recording their high energies, and the belts' increased size.

Then something happened no one had ever seen before: the particles settled into a new configuration, showing an extra, third belt extending out into space. Within mere days of launch, the Van Allen Probes showed scientists something that would require rewriting textbooks.

"By the fifth day REPT was on, we could plot out our observations and watch the formation of a third radiation belt," says Shri Kanekal, the deputy mission scientist for the Van Allen Probes at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. and a coauthor of a paper on these results. "We started wondering if there was something wrong with our instruments. We checked everything, but there was nothing wrong with them. The third belt persisted beautifully, day after day, week after week, for four weeks."

More here:
[link to www.nasa.gov]



[link to www.youtube.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Everyday brings something new, what an amazing time to be alive!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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02/28/2013 05:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
we have a CME that arrived earlier today with Density spikes at ACE reaching a high in the 60s and 80s
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


we even had a density reading of 92.5 at 17:04 UTC
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

a little hit to help: you can always tell if a CME is headed at ACE/Earth by watching the wave of 'Low Energy Protons' on he ACE charts 3day 'low energy proton' chart
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez



Whoa! and we had a Density spike at 17:46 UTC with a high reading of 142.2 !!!
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hello, NINzrezhf Nice catch there! We must be seeing some action from that large beyond-the-limb CME on the 25th (it's too soon to be the big filament eruption from yesterday). In any case NOAA and NASA claimed both were not geoeffective. A much smaller density measurement was taken at SOHO (less than 30 p/ccm so far):

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Here's NOAA 24hr Summary and Forecast for SW and Geomagnetic conditions-

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated no significant activity in the solar wind flow during
the period. Wind speed ranged from 297 to 358 km/s during the period.
Phi data indicated a negative-polarity (toward) solar sector during most
of the period. However, there was a shift to a positive-polarity (away)
sector during approximately 27/0300. IMF Bt ranged from 1 to 6 nT, while
IMF Bz was variable at +/- 5 nT.

.Forecast...
Wind speed is expected to increase on days 2 - 3 (01 - 02 Mar) due to
the onset of a CH HSS. Enlil ambient-mode model output predicts peak
wind speeds around 450 km/s with this CH HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (28 Feb). Field
activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on days 2
and 3 (01-02 Mar), with a chance for active levels and a slight chance
for minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1 (Minor)), due to the onset of a
recurrent CH HSS.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Still no spaceweather warnings or alerts posted:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 6-hr. SW data-Density is spiking again now:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


sure does look like some of that one on the 25th got us
solar wind has not increased much, but density sure is staying elevated all day long
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
United States
02/28/2013 06:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We may see a NOAA K-4 warning soon. It looks like some of the coronal hole winds are picking up, as well as the temperature. Bz has turned south too.

ACE solar wind-magnetic field plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron flux shows movement:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder magnetometer recently as high as 23nT (or K=3.3):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

They did predict a possible G1 storm from this particular CH.
hiding
Hugh M Eye

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02/28/2013 07:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1683 has companion active region following close behind it in the SE.

AR1683 & New Friend-
:2/28-1683:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 60 Issued at 0030Z on 01 Mar 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Feb
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1680 S28W00 270 0020 Cro 04 03 Beta
1681 N17E20 249 0020 Cro 02 02 Beta
1682 S18W30 299 0180 Dai 08 15 Beta-Gamma
1683 S16E68 201 0150 Dao 06 03 Beta

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AIA 171angstrom image:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1683 Magnetogram-
:1683mag:

NOAA Discussion-Solar Activity Low-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Occasional to frequent B-class flares
occurred, the largest of which was a B7 at 28/1601 UTC from Region 1682
(S18W30, Dai/beta-gamma). Region 1682 showed gradual spot and penumbral
growth in its intermediate portion and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. Region 1683 (S16E68, Dao/beta) produced three B-class
flares as it rotated further into view. Little change was noted in
Region 1683, but analysis was hampered due to limb-foreshortening
effects. The remaining two spotted regions were unremarkable. There were
no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections during the period.

Geospace-24 hr Summary-

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 1 (01 Mar), with a chance for active levels and a slight
chance for minor storm levels (NOAA Scale G1 (Minor)), due to the onset
of a recurrent CH HSS
. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
on day 2 (02 Mar), with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight
chance for active levels, as CH HSS effects subside. Quiet conditions
are expected on day 3 (03 Mar).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer plot:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

USAF Wing Kp plot:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
madajs

User ID: 24791599
Canada
02/28/2013 09:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yep bit of CH HSS activity going on hey?

Bt above 10 nT but the Bz is currently pretty friendly, have to see if that changes

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/28/2013 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here it is now....

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2049
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 01 0235 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2013 Mar 01 0233 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Mar 01 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1627
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 01 0242 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 01 0242 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/28/2013 10:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Yep bit of CH HSS activity going on hey?

Bt above 10 nT but the Bz is currently pretty friendly, have to see if that changes

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs


Howdy, madajs, hiyep, it's comin' in strong now. The Boulder magnetometer showing deviation at 79nT now....k=5.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Electron flux fragglezizzle:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SWEPAM Plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

alone
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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02/28/2013 10:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
My favorite aurora-cams are cloudy or foggy, but these are lookin' good....

Finland All-sky:

[link to www.sgo.fi]

Tromso All-sky cam:

[link to polaris.nipr.ac.jp]

Norway web cam:

[link to 128.39.135.10]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 1426914
United States
03/01/2013 02:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Bz be trippin south

[link to www.solarham.net]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 34713934
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03/01/2013 02:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Then something happened no one had ever seen before: the particles settled into a new configuration, showing an extra, third belt extending out into space. Within mere days of launch, the Van Allen Probes showed scientists something that would require rewriting textbooks.

Planet evolving? Becoming more complex? Could it be linked with the solar maximum? Did the planet form this in response to an external stimuli, and if so how?
Boceph
Deep East Tejas

User ID: 14859593
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03/01/2013 07:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't been participating much lately, but
if i remember how to read this :

[link to www.solarham.net]

we are expecting K7 ?
Tiny Trink

User ID: 34877295
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03/01/2013 07:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35207099
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03/01/2013 07:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I haven't been participating much lately, but
if i remember how to read this :

[link to www.solarham.net]

we are expecting K7 ?
 Quoting: Boceph


Good morning hf

The green horizontal green line on the Wing Kp is the predicted/anticipated on the graph, and the blue actual. So this shows staying just below 5 for the next 2 hours.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 07:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
shenue

User ID: 35346027
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03/01/2013 08:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning All. I hope everyone is well today. I couldn't resist this creepy little animation. :-)

:Creapy:
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shadasonic

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03/01/2013 08:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
 Quoting: TS66


It does seem like forever. Some of us haven't been able to get on this site for hours at a time, along with 'other' sites. Glad to see you guys are able to keep us awake and aware!hf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shenue

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03/01/2013 08:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
 Quoting: TS66


It does seem like forever. Some of us haven't been able to get on this site for hours at a time, along with 'other' sites. Glad to see you guys are able to keep us awake and aware!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


In the past day or two, I haven't been able to get on GLP for much of the time. Getting message that there is a server problem. And now I am on (obiously lol) but it is very, very slow.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 09:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
 Quoting: TS66


It does seem like forever. Some of us haven't been able to get on this site for hours at a time, along with 'other' sites. Glad to see you guys are able to keep us awake and aware!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


In the past day or two, I haven't been able to get on GLP for much of the time. Getting message that there is a server problem. And now I am on (obiously lol) but it is very, very slow.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there Shada and Shenue. The issues is site wide and have effected all of us. The perma pins by Trinity explain why.
Hugh M Eye

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03/01/2013 09:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 512
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 01 0953 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Mar 01: G1 (Minor) Mar 02: None (Below G1) Mar 03: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 709
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 01 1136 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 01 1134 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

K-indices:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Kp-index:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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03/01/2013 09:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
De internets be broken today

dancelmaowtf1dunno1deadhorse

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 03/01/2013 09:15 AM
shenue

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03/01/2013 09:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
 Quoting: TS66


It does seem like forever. Some of us haven't been able to get on this site for hours at a time, along with 'other' sites. Glad to see you guys are able to keep us awake and aware!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


In the past day or two, I haven't been able to get on GLP for much of the time. Getting message that there is a server problem. And now I am on (obiously lol) but it is very, very slow.
 Quoting: shenue


Hey there Shada and Shenue. The issues is site wide and have effected all of us. The perma pins by Trinity explain why.
 Quoting: TS66


Hi 66 I figured it was site wide. I tried to get on several threads here and nothing would come up. I'll check out Trinity's pins. Thanks! Hope you are doing well, 66!
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
mtn_mang

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03/01/2013 09:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning, sol' patrol!

At another hob interview this morning, a good job. Only problem, there is a veteran also vying for the position so he will probably get it :(

Oh well, wish me luck. And peace and love, guys!
shadasonic

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03/01/2013 09:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haven't had a good solar storm ear hiss in a while, nice!

Good luck Mtn!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shenue

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03/01/2013 10:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I know this isn't exactly on topic, but it is interesting:

Astronomers have captured what may be the first-ever direct photograph of an alien planet in the process of forming around a nearby star.

[link to news.yahoo.com]
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
mtn_mang

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03/01/2013 10:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haven't had a good solar storm ear hiss in a while, nice!

Good luck Mtn!
 Quoting: shadasonic


thanks, mon amie! Hiring manager told me they don't have preferential treatment for vets and I slayed the interview so I'm walking on solar wind right now!
Hugh M Eye

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03/01/2013 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1682 showing another spurt of growth but still a lack of flares. wtf

:1682magneto:

The east limb is looking active.....maybe.......

:3/1-171n:
:3/1-171s:
shenue

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03/01/2013 11:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haven't had a good solar storm ear hiss in a while, nice!

Good luck Mtn!
 Quoting: shadasonic


thanks, mon amie! Hiring manager told me they don't have preferential treatment for vets and I slayed the interview so I'm walking on solar wind right now!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Fingers crossed for you mtn. When should you hear something?
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Hugh M Eye

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03/01/2013 11:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ACE 6-hr Solar Wind plot shows a gust of nearly 900 km/s! Wow.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SW velocity has doubled in the past 48 hrs:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

HAARP Fluxgate Magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

GOES Electron flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
whiteangel

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03/01/2013 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
First time I've seen wind speed at 600km/s in a veryyyyyyyyy long time.
 Quoting: TS66


648 is just a number that I forgot it could hit....got a major headache brewing as I try to catch up on everything after all the craziness of yesterday. Major GLP withdrawals I had for sure!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Anonymous Coward
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03/01/2013 11:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haven't had a good solar storm ear hiss in a while, nice!

Good luck Mtn!
 Quoting: shadasonic


thanks, mon amie! Hiring manager told me they don't have preferential treatment for vets and I slayed the interview so I'm walking on solar wind right now!
 Quoting: mtn_mang


hf

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