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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2013 08:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CACTus CME Details show a mean velocity of 840 km/s (and mistakenly call it a type II halo). NOAA's speed guesstimate was nearly double at 1399 kms/s. This gives us a huge amount of "wiggle room" in our arrival predictions. Anybody care to guess along ? We can make it a contest, LOL.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Waterbug

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03/15/2013 08:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Holey Macaroni..!

Hide yer kids.. hide yer wife..

boom
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2013 08:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1696 seems to be flaring now-only a C1 unless it's a foreshock:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2013 08:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

farside
shadasonic

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03/15/2013 09:04 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'll go 3-16 @ 23:00 duration 12. It came out the gate pretty quick, yet I'm always early with these.LOL
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Da fuq

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03/15/2013 09:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I bet we see a kp8.



And this [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] will look all sorts of bad.






On a side note, second in a row one of these halo CME explosions from our " weak double peeked solar maunder maximum " sun.


If this trend continues and we catch one like a week or so before this one, its game ova.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 09:11 AM
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 09:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Blahahhahahahhahahhahah...
shadasonic

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03/15/2013 09:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Blahahhahahahhahahhahah...
 Quoting: Obsequious Pachyderm


Nice Olephant blahaha guy
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 09:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 09:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164


WOW!

[link to www.solarham.net]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 10:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Blahahhahahahhahahhahah...
 Quoting: Obsequious Pachyderm


Nice Olephant blahaha guy
 Quoting: shadasonic


Kids, don't try this at home...
Da fuq

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03/15/2013 10:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to www.solarham.net]

i'll go with that time.
hiding

Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 10:21 AM
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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03/15/2013 10:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]


glp uncleEjectaHoly Carp
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 10:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

impressive looking CME...

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


Yes it is my friend. This will be interesting, the mags got to be a little out of shape.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy
 Quoting: TS66


i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
ANHEDONIC

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03/15/2013 11:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2013/03/15

WOW!!!

LASCO (C2)

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

2013/03/15

COR2

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Full Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (3/15/2013)

Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


The projected arrival times vary, but it looks like the window is tomorrow from about 1700UTC to 2200UTC.

Since the time change last week, I think you subtract 4 hours to get eastern (maybe someone can confirm?)

That would put the arrival window tomorrow between 1pm and 6pm eastern.
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 11:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


thats a great guess! i would have to agree
this CME just did not appear to be quite fast enough to get here by the evening of the 16th (tomorrow) IMO
even if it WAS a direct shot
i will go with your timeframe, as well as disturbance duration.. 12hrs is my guess
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...

impressive looking CME...

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


Yes it is my friend. This will be interesting, the mags got to be a little out of shape.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy
 Quoting: TS66


i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.wink
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 11:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
muse_1111

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03/15/2013 11:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)
 Quoting: NiNzrez

[link to www.scc-ares-races.org]
I also use this chart as well. It will give you UTC time conversion for standard time as well as Daylight savings.
I think the only error in the above calculation is that it is expected to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17. That should be 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Sat. 3/16
ANHEDONIC

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03/15/2013 11:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The projected arrival times vary, but it looks like the window is tomorrow from about 1700UTC to 2200UTC.

Since the time change last week, I think you subtract 4 hours to get eastern (maybe someone can confirm?)

That would put the arrival window tomorrow between 1pm and 6pm eastern.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 34388989


sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thank you both for responding.

cool2

"You will not be punished for your anger, you will be punished by your anger"
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 12:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Should be very interesting over the next couple of days. Thanks all for posting, I missed it and it was nice to catch up with all the events.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
madajs.

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03/15/2013 12:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164

I was actually surprised when looking at the geoeffective ENLIL model (as linked above) because this CME isn't as impressive looking with subsequent model runs.

I guess we won't know until it gets here.

The G1 watch failed to materialize (as it fails to do 90% of the time), wouldn't be surprised to see the G2 watch they've issued for the new CME fail to materialize as well.

Anyways we'll find out soon enough and it's certainly a fun event to follow whether it gets to G2 or not! Lots of action lately!

rockon

Last Edited by madajs. on 03/15/2013 12:23 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
BloodyT3CH

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03/15/2013 12:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164

I was actually surprised when looking at the geoeffective ENLIL model (as linked above) because this CME isn't as impressive looking with subsequent model runs.

I guess we won't know until it gets here.

The G1 watch failed to materialize (as it fails to do 90% of the time), wouldn't be surprised to see the G2 watch they've issued for the new CME fail to materialize as well.

Anyways we'll find out soon enough and it's certainly a fun event to follow whether it gets to G2 or not! Lots of action lately!

rockon
 Quoting: madajs.

My Guess is that this cme will trigger G3 geomagnetic storm. 747km/s wind with 22cm/3 proton density. It will be amazing day for northern latitudes.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 12:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New SWPC Update:

2013-03-15 18:14 UTC G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected
An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th. This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th. Stay tuned for updates
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 12:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
















Edited~ Wrong video.
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 01:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One

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