SOLAR WATCH * 251 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Kp 7? That CME on the Enlil sim looks too small to cause a 7

Last Edited by Solar Guardian on 03/15/2013 05:37 AM

The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy

[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]

Looks like a very decent particle event. That northern lineup may give us some more action also.

Long Duration Event sustained x-ray flux level above C1 for 5 hours! Big, fast CME on the way and initial forecasts say it may be here tomorrow 3/16/2013.

:3/15flare:

SDO close-up movie of M-flare ruined by some smelly planet getttin' in the way:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

GONG H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SEEDS Movie of full-halo (type IV) CME:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Minor radio blackout (R1) conditions were
observed. A long duration M1/1f flare occurred at 15/0658 UTC from the
vicinity of Regions 1696 (N05W16, Eai/beta-gamma) and 1692 (N09E02,
Hsx/alpha). Images from the GONG H-Alpha network monitor show a
filament between these two regions disappearing during that time. The
flare was accompanied by a tenflare (150 pfu). At 15/0712 UTC, imagery
from the SOHO/LASCO coronagraph showed an asymmetrical full halo CME.
This CME was also visible in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at 15/0712 UTC. A
preliminary speed estimate of 1399 km/s was obtained using a combination
of STEREO and SOHO coronagraph imagery (geometric localization). For
comparison, a speed of 807 km/s was obtained using simple plane of sky
measurements from two LASCO C3 images.

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 573
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 15 0753 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2013 Mar 15 0631 UTC
Maximum Time: 2013 Mar 15 0649 UTC
End Time: 2013 Mar 15 0651 UTC
Duration: 20 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 123 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
:3/15halo:

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. At 15/0526 UTC, a
geomagnetic sudden impulse (23 nT at BOU) was observed as the shock from
the 12 Mar CME reached the magnetosphere. Following the shock, the
field activity rose to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active to minor storm
periods during the day and will likely persist into the early part of
day 2 (16 Mar). As noted in the solar wind forecast, a coarse estimate
of arrival is around 16/1800-2100 UTC, suggesting prolonged active
conditions at a minimum and the potential for minor to major storm
levels. A chance for isolated minor storm (G1) conditions has been
added to the day 2 (16 Mar) forecast. Refined estimates of the arrival
timing and magnitude of todays CME will be possible once additional
LASCO imagery is received (after 15/1405 UTC) and output from the
WSA-Enlil model is available.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Tomorrow, its moving at a good pace then.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

March 11th. you can see the polarity of SS and CH fields

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Those fields shifted on the 14th maybe allowing the possibility of some electromagnetic pickup.


[link to www.lmsal.com]

We've got this nice V of a CH coming around the bend also, which may have some influence on these events and some continued Storming. Won't be boring for the next week.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

BOOM!............ouch.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Ouch indeed.
At the least Sol was nice enough to butter us up with 2 small ones before it decided to take shit on us.



Hier kommpt die sonne



Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 07:58 AM

CACTus CME Details show a mean velocity of 840 km/s (and mistakenly call it a type II halo). NOAA's speed guesstimate was nearly double at 1399 kms/s. This gives us a huge amount of "wiggle room" in our arrival predictions. Anybody care to guess along ? We can make it a contest, LOL.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Holey Macaroni..!

Hide yer kids.. hide yer wife..

AR1696 seems to be flaring now-only a C1 unless it's a foreshock:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

I'll go 3-16 @ 23:00 duration 12. It came out the gate pretty quick, yet I'm always early with these.LOL

I bet we see a kp8.



And this [link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov] will look all sorts of bad.






On a side note, second in a row one of these halo CME explosions from our " weak double peeked solar maunder maximum " sun.


If this trend continues and we catch one like a week or so before this one, its game ova.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 09:11 AM

Blahahhahahahhahahhahah...

Nice Olephant blahaha guy

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

WOW!

[link to www.solarham.net]

Kids, don't try this at home...

[link to www.solarham.net]

i'll go with that time.


Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/15/2013 10:21 AM

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]

i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^

Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.

2013/03/15

WOW!!!

LASCO (C2)

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

2013/03/15

COR2

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

The projected arrival times vary, but it looks like the window is tomorrow from about 1700UTC to 2200UTC.

Since the time change last week, I think you subtract 4 hours to get eastern (maybe someone can confirm?)

That would put the arrival window tomorrow between 1pm and 6pm eastern.

thats a great guess! i would have to agree
this CME just did not appear to be quite fast enough to get here by the evening of the 16th (tomorrow) IMO
even if it WAS a direct shot
i will go with your timeframe, as well as disturbance duration.. 12hrs is my guess

I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.

sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)