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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 11:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 12:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Should be very interesting over the next couple of days. Thanks all for posting, I missed it and it was nice to catch up with all the events.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
madajs.

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03/15/2013 12:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164

I was actually surprised when looking at the geoeffective ENLIL model (as linked above) because this CME isn't as impressive looking with subsequent model runs.

I guess we won't know until it gets here.

The G1 watch failed to materialize (as it fails to do 90% of the time), wouldn't be surprised to see the G2 watch they've issued for the new CME fail to materialize as well.

Anyways we'll find out soon enough and it's certainly a fun event to follow whether it gets to G2 or not! Lots of action lately!

rockon

Last Edited by madajs. on 03/15/2013 12:23 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
BloodyT3CH

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03/15/2013 12:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164

I was actually surprised when looking at the geoeffective ENLIL model (as linked above) because this CME isn't as impressive looking with subsequent model runs.

I guess we won't know until it gets here.

The G1 watch failed to materialize (as it fails to do 90% of the time), wouldn't be surprised to see the G2 watch they've issued for the new CME fail to materialize as well.

Anyways we'll find out soon enough and it's certainly a fun event to follow whether it gets to G2 or not! Lots of action lately!

rockon
 Quoting: madajs.

My Guess is that this cme will trigger G3 geomagnetic storm. 747km/s wind with 22cm/3 proton density. It will be amazing day for northern latitudes.
Religion is the biggest joke i've ever seen

- ME
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 12:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
New SWPC Update:

2013-03-15 18:14 UTC G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Expected
An Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in conjunction with an R1 (Minor) solar flare radio blackout in the early hours of March 15th. This CME is expected to arrive late on March 16th, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming forecast for the 16th and G2 (Moderate) storming forecast for the 17th. Stay tuned for updates
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 12:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
















Edited~ Wrong video.
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 01:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 01:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??

Last Edited by whiteangel on 03/15/2013 01:30 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
NiNzrez
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03/15/2013 01:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Yes it is my friend. This will be interesting, the mags got to be a little out of shape.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy
 Quoting: TS66


i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.wink
 Quoting: TS66


wait a sek here....
i only knew you were going to Mexico
are you going to the Kukulkan pyramid in Chichen-Itza for the spring equinox event?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)
 Quoting: NiNzrez

[link to www.scc-ares-races.org]
I also use this chart as well. It will give you UTC time conversion for standard time as well as Daylight savings.
I think the only error in the above calculation is that it is expected to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17. That should be 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Sat. 3/16
 Quoting: muse_1111


haha yes i wrote Fri.. should have been Sat as you pointed out. Thanks :)

the CME could come as late as 03:00 UTC Sunday morning
that is at 11pm Saturday night EST
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances
 Quoting: TS66


Coba is actually where the tablet was found
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I gotta ask; didn't the East Coast go on daylight saving time so it would now be EDT? I am in MDT so just wondering?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??
 Quoting: whiteangel


look at the date
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
 Quoting: TS66


I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.wink
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


wait a sek here....
i only knew you were going to Mexico
are you going to the Kukulkan pyramid in Chichen-Itza for the spring equinox event?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


No kidding! Spill the beans 66! AND we want pics
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Awesome! You are a lucky lady hf
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Awesome! You are a lucky lady hf
 Quoting: whiteangel


Booked it in October, what are the chances 1dunno1
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??
 Quoting: whiteangel


look at the date
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35562509


Oops embarrasse
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
protons are on the rise
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Ace protons
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2013 02:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA- 50% chance of SEVERE geomagnetic storm for High Latitudes; 5% for mid-latitudes.

scroll down the left margin....

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

hiding

plasmatail
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances
 Quoting: TS66


Coba is actually where the tablet was found
 Quoting: TS66


oooo so lucky!!!!!!!!!!!!
yeah true, but Chichen Itza is where there is the spring equinox event where it shows kulakan decent on the stairs of the pyramid :):):):)
i have ALWAYS want to go there to witness this even myself in person


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Southern Coronal Hole 'Before M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Southern Coronal Hole 'After M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Thank you Angel ..... between prediction, weather , and an active sun, it may prove more interesting than I bargained for.
madajs.

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03/15/2013 03:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Southern Coronal Hole 'Before M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Southern Coronal Hole 'After M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

Good work NiN :) Looks like we'll get some CH action in a few days time as well
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What can happen with the enormety of that hole ?
if thats one

any body has idea


did this hapened before?
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 03:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

[link to youtu.be]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/15/2013 03:22 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 03:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Thank you Angel ..... between prediction, weather , and an active sun, it may prove more interesting than I bargained for.
 Quoting: TS66


I know what you mean. Not sure I would have the ba---/nerve to travel at this time hiding
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain