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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 01:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??

Last Edited by whiteangel on 03/15/2013 01:30 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
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Thread: Being Prepared
NiNzrez
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03/15/2013 01:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Yes it is my friend. This will be interesting, the mags got to be a little out of shape.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


The sun is quite for how long ????

Every time I get ready to take a flight, it gets busy !!! Oy
 Quoting: TS66


i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.wink
 Quoting: TS66


wait a sek here....
i only knew you were going to Mexico
are you going to the Kukulkan pyramid in Chichen-Itza for the spring equinox event?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Can anyone tell me when the CME is expected to arrive in terms of Eastern Standard Time (EST)? I always have issues converting the time zone differences when the arrival times are reported.
 Quoting: ANHEDONIC


sure :)
im in EST as well
UTC is 4hrs ahead of EST

right now EST is 14:40
right now UTC is 18:40

the CME is set to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17
that is 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Fri. 3/16


(think i got all that right)
 Quoting: NiNzrez

[link to www.scc-ares-races.org]
I also use this chart as well. It will give you UTC time conversion for standard time as well as Daylight savings.
I think the only error in the above calculation is that it is expected to arrive around 17:00 UTC Sat. 3/16 - 03:00 UTC Sun. 3/17. That should be 1pm EST Sat. 3/16 - 11pm EST Sat. 3/16
 Quoting: muse_1111


haha yes i wrote Fri.. should have been Sat as you pointed out. Thanks :)

the CME could come as late as 03:00 UTC Sunday morning
that is at 11pm Saturday night EST
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35725151
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03/15/2013 02:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances
 Quoting: TS66


Coba is actually where the tablet was found
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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03/15/2013 02:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I gotta ask; didn't the East Coast go on daylight saving time so it would now be EDT? I am in MDT so just wondering?
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35562509
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03/15/2013 02:03 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??
 Quoting: whiteangel


look at the date
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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03/15/2013 02:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i told you about your flight date around a month back... remember hehehe
sorry i was right ^^
 Quoting: TS66


I knowwwww ....... What is stranger still is that the last time I went to Maya, there was a really big earthquake in Japan.

Maybe the pyramids are the place to be.wink
 Quoting: NiNzrez 28232082


wait a sek here....
i only knew you were going to Mexico
are you going to the Kukulkan pyramid in Chichen-Itza for the spring equinox event?!?!?!?!?!?!?!


No kidding! Spill the beans 66! AND we want pics
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
United States
03/15/2013 02:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Awesome! You are a lucky lady hf
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 35725151
United States
03/15/2013 02:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Awesome! You are a lucky lady hf
 Quoting: whiteangel


Booked it in October, what are the chances 1dunno1
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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03/15/2013 02:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The sun recently erupted with two coronal mass ejections (CMEs). One began at 8:36 p.m. EDT on March 12, 2013 and is directed toward three NASA spacecraft, Spitzer, Kepler and Epoxi. There is, however, no particle radiation associated with this event, which is what would normally concern operators of interplanetary spacecraft since the particles can trip computer electronics on board. A second CME began at 6:54 a.m. EDT on March 13, 2013 and its flank may pass by Earth at a speed that does not typically have a significant impact at Earth.

Experimental NASA research models, based on observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and ESA/NASA’s Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, indicate that both CMEs left the sun at around 400 miles per second, which is a fairly typical speed for CMEs.

Not to be confused with a solar flare, a CME is a solar phenomenon that can send solar particles into space and reach Earth one to three days later.

Earth-directed CMEs can cause a space weather phenomenon called a geomagnetic storm, which occurs when they connect with the outside of Earth's magnetic envelope, the magnetosphere, for an extended period of time. In the past, geomagnetic storms from CMEs of this speed are usually mild. CMEs such as this have caused auroras near the poles but are unlikely to disrupt electrical systems on Earth or interfere with GPS or satellite-based communications systems.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center ( [link to swpc.noaa.gov)] is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts, alerts, watches and warnings.

Updates will be provided if needed.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Flanking?? Thought it looked dead on to me??
 Quoting: whiteangel


look at the date
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 35562509


Oops embarrasse
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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03/15/2013 02:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
protons are on the rise
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Ace protons
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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03/15/2013 02:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA- 50% chance of SEVERE geomagnetic storm for High Latitudes; 5% for mid-latitudes.

scroll down the left margin....

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

hiding

plasmatail
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances
 Quoting: TS66


Coba is actually where the tablet was found
 Quoting: TS66


oooo so lucky!!!!!!!!!!!!
yeah true, but Chichen Itza is where there is the spring equinox event where it shows kulakan decent on the stairs of the pyramid :):):):)
i have ALWAYS want to go there to witness this even myself in person


[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 02:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

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03/15/2013 02:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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03/15/2013 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Southern Coronal Hole 'Before M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Southern Coronal Hole 'After M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 02:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Thank you Angel ..... between prediction, weather , and an active sun, it may prove more interesting than I bargained for.
madajs.

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03/15/2013 03:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Southern Coronal Hole 'Before M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Southern Coronal Hole 'After M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

Good work NiN :) Looks like we'll get some CH action in a few days time as well
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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03/15/2013 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What can happen with the enormety of that hole ?
if thats one

any body has idea


did this hapened before?
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/15/2013 03:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

[link to youtu.be]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/15/2013 03:22 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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03/15/2013 03:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well don 't be, we'll be on the plane at 6:38 on the 20th. A little birdie told me the 22nd might be interesting however ....
 Quoting: TS66


I hope you have a wonderful and safe journey hon.
 Quoting: whiteangel


Thank you Angel ..... between prediction, weather , and an active sun, it may prove more interesting than I bargained for.
 Quoting: TS66


I know what you mean. Not sure I would have the ba---/nerve to travel at this time hiding
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
God is NOT dead!
Thread: Being Prepared
madajs.

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Canada
03/15/2013 03:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What can happen with the enormety of that hole ?
if thats one

any body has idea


did this hapened before?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36246585

It's nothing to be too concerned about! They occur quite frequently :)
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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03/15/2013 03:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Chitzen Itza, or Coba. We been there before, but it seems appropriate under the circumstances wink
 Quoting: TS66


How awesome!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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03/15/2013 03:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
wow something i did not notice till just now when i was looking at the SDO movie for all of today. directly after todays M flare & CME, the southern coronal hole expanded and opened a large CH area just north of the southern coronal hole
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Southern Coronal Hole 'Before M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Southern Coronal Hole 'After M flare
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez

Good work NiN :) Looks like we'll get some CH action in a few days time as well
 Quoting: madajs.


Got a big V CH on the backside getting ready to rotate into view also
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
03/15/2013 04:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WILL THE SKY TURN GREEN ON ST. PATRICK'S DAY? A magnetic filament snaking around sunspot AR1692 erupted on March 15th at about 0600 UT. The slow explosion, which took hours to unfold, produced an M1-class solar flare and a bright CME. SOHO (the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) photographed the expanding cloud, which is heading directly toward Earth: [link to spaceweather.com]
Isis One

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03/15/2013 04:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CACTus CME Details show a mean velocity of 840 km/s (and mistakenly call it a type II halo). NOAA's speed guesstimate was nearly double at 1399 kms/s. This gives us a huge amount of "wiggle room" in our arrival predictions. Anybody care to guess along ? We can make it a contest, LOL.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'll go with 1399km/s and arrival a bit earlier than forecast.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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03/15/2013 04:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq


Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs).

farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ha!!!!!!! I just posted an earlier arrival prediction myself.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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03/15/2013 04:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36230164


see, that's why I'm thinking early
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

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