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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
whiteangel

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03/17/2013 09:11 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2013 09:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


Interesting isn't it.herethere
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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03/17/2013 09:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Colorado Aurora

WOW
[link to spaceweather.com]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
shenue

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03/17/2013 09:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Colorado Aurora

WOW
[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Good pics
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
optimum judgment

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03/17/2013 10:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice sky we only have clouds
Spittin'Cesium

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03/17/2013 10:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


rockon
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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03/17/2013 10:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
May get green sky for St Patrick's Day love to allbroccoli
 Quoting: Goofy for God


We may, at that, GFG.
 Quoting: shenue


They had green skies in Canada this morning!
aurorayknife

And multi-hued aurora in Alaska-
:auroraAK:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Vurtde!
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2013 10:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Talk about conspiracies.....After waiting all night for a sign of this CME arrival, I finally saw the indicators of a sudden impulse in the solar winds at ACE around 05:40z. When I went to post here suddenly GLP servers were not responding. Talk about frustration....ugghhh! I waited and tried for another hour before going to sleep watching beautiful aurora blooming at the Yellowknife all-sky cam. I've never seen such great visuals on that auroramax site as this. It updates every 20 seconds and each time there was a completely different shape. These aurora were billowing and morphing with bright intensity.

Also note that the CME arrived at ACE 20 minutes before my tiny (compared to THEIRS) prediction window expired. I must say I'm getting better at this (or NOAA is getting worse, haha). As most of you know this isn't the first time we suntards have out-guessed the experts in these matters. NOAA should offer me a job as a freelance consultant/janitor (I'll work cheap,LOL).

Here's my quote from page 1811 of this thread:

"Much to my surprise, NASA is forecasting an even earlier arrival (slightly) than NOAA.--

Event Issue Date: 2013-03-15 09:23:51.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-03-16 16:59:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 4.3 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

I have no idea still how they calculate a 'Disturbance Duration' of 4 hours. In my experience these CME events last anywhere from 10 to 32 hours. Wam-bam-thak-you, maam!

Anyway, I'll take a stab and predict impact will start on 3-17 at about 03:00z (+/- 3 hrs.) and duration will be 8-12 hrs (+/-6 hrs)."

The satellites in Geosynchronus Orbit were exposed to raw solar winds for a short time. Luckily the density was very low for this CME or some satellites may have been compromised. Here's the NASA magnetopause simulation model:
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
:3/17mpause:
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2013 10:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
Wow! scared
Da fuq

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03/17/2013 10:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1572072


[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

GOOD NEWS EVERYONE
farnsworth

Last Edited by Da fuq on 03/17/2013 10:45 AM
optimum judgment

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03/17/2013 10:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1572072


[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

GOOD NEWS EVERYONE
farnsworth
 Quoting: Da fuq


Nice baseline induction
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2013 10:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We're still storming strong here (12 hours later, hehe)! NOAA has issued another K=6 ALERT/and Threshold Reached notice-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 303
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1713 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 17 1700 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic K- Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO solaR WIND DATA:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2013 10:55 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We're still storming strong here (12 hours later, hehe)! NOAA has issued another K=6 ALERT/and Threshold Reached notice-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 303
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1713 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 17 1700 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic K- Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO solaR WIND DATA:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


my net went out seriously the very sek i seen someone post that the CME had arrived. was sooo mad
just now got it back on
new updates added to the solar alerts blog on the storm level

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
CME Imapct!

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/17/2013 12:03 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2013 11:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Magnetometer Round-up-

HAARP Fluxgate magnetometer:

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Kiruna, Sweden Magnetometer:

[link to www.irf.se]

Boulder Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Tromso, Norway and dozens of other magnetometers:

[link to flux.phys.uit.no]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 31662450
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03/17/2013 11:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


[link to www.youtube.com]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 36140692
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03/17/2013 11:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We're still storming strong here (12 hours later, hehe)! NOAA has issued another K=6 ALERT/and Threshold Reached notice-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 303
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1713 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 17 1700 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic K- Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO solaR WIND DATA:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


my net went out seriously the very sek i seen someone post that the CME had arrived. was sooo mad
just not got it back on
new updates added to the solar alerts blog on the storm level

[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]
CME Imapct!
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Same thing for me. I was trying to login to say it has arrived, but I wasn't able to!
Spittin'Cesium

User ID: 14589973
United Kingdom
03/17/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We're still storming strong here (12 hours later, hehe)! NOAA has issued another K=6 ALERT/and Threshold Reached notice-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 303
Issue Time: 2013 Mar 17 1713 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Mar 17 1700 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic K- Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO solaR WIND DATA:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW data:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Give the Man a job already,geez!?

This [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] not been on for long,is that the North-West Filament?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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03/17/2013 11:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


I hope their prediction is wrong, or the chart is incorrect.
 Quoting: shenue


Your crazy! I hope it's right. Lol
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2013 11:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


I hope their prediction is wrong, or the chart is incorrect.
 Quoting: shenue


Your crazy! I hope it's right. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


They're still predicting a K=8! If we were seeing more density they could be right.

Wing Kp plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Official Estimated Kp from NOAA back up to 6 now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Potsdam Kp Index:

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Geomagnetic K-indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA oughtta fire the guy who predicted a 4-hour disturbance, LOL.
iamwithwtf
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2013 11:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp prediction back up to 9!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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03/17/2013 11:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry,8.7
Da fuq

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03/17/2013 12:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2013 12:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


I hope their prediction is wrong, or the chart is incorrect.
 Quoting: shenue


Your crazy! I hope it's right. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


They're still predicting a K=8! If we were seeing more density they could be right.

Wing Kp plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Official Estimated Kp from NOAA back up to 6 now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Potsdam Kp Index:

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Geomagnetic K-indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA oughtta fire the guy who predicted a 4-hour disturbance, LOL.
iamwithwtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


it could get that high easy
the wind speed is fast enough, the Bz is south, now all we need is a tad more density thrown into the mix to really kick this storm into high gear
and i for one sure expected way more density with this CME that the 6-10 range
clicking refresh on ACE like im getting paid per refresh hahaha
cause i just have a feeling this density will jump here any time
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Spittin'Cesium

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03/17/2013 12:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: TS66


I hope their prediction is wrong, or the chart is incorrect.
 Quoting: shenue


Your crazy! I hope it's right. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


They're still predicting a K=8! If we were seeing more density they could be right.

Wing Kp plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Official Estimated Kp from NOAA back up to 6 now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Potsdam Kp Index:

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Geomagnetic K-indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA oughtta fire the guy who predicted a 4-hour disturbance, LOL.
iamwithwtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Yes,what the Foxtrott is down with that ridiculous assertion from the NASA Gimpus!?

Anyhoo',Lunar H2O Depositions due to Solar Wind -

'ANN ARBOR—The most likely source of the water locked inside soils on the moon's surface is the constant stream of charged particles from the sun known as the solar wind, a University of Michigan researcher and his colleagues have concluded.

Over the last five years, spacecraft observations and new lab measurements of Apollo lunar samples have overturned the long-held belief that the moon is bone-dry.

In 2009, NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing satellite, known as LCROSS, slammed into a permanently shadowed lunar crater and ejected a plume of material that was surprisingly rich in water ice. Water and related compounds have also been detected in the lunar regolith, the layer of fine powder and rock fragments that coats the lunar surface' [link to ns.umich.edu] .

Starwater,the quest continues.

sunwater
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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03/17/2013 12:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp prediction back up to 9!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1609061


Fragglacious!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Isis One

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03/17/2013 12:35 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Excellent and timely tutorial Hugh, thanks!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

Thread: The Universe is Funny Thread
whiteangel

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03/17/2013 12:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp prediction back up to 9!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1609061


Fragglacious!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


So you think we will hit K9?
Just because I am paranoid doesn't mean I am wrong.

Isaiah 5:20 (KJV)
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/17/2013 12:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
did i miss someone taling about the new CME seen on STEREO?
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
optimum judgment

User ID: 24021617
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03/17/2013 12:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp prediction back up to 9!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1609061


Fragglacious!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


ooh nice
Hugh M Eye

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03/17/2013 12:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA Discussion....the story so far-

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Observations from the SWEPAM instrument aboard the ACE spacecraft
suggest the 15 March CME arrived at approximately 17/0528 UTC. Solar
wind speed jumped from about 430 km/s to the 650 km/s range with a peak
of 763 km/s at 17/0544 UTC. Bt jumped from around 5 nT to eventually
peak near 21 nT. Bz which had been neutral dropped to a low of
approximately -19 nT over the course of the next three hours. Shock
arrival was also evident in the temperature and density measurements.

.Forecast...
Effects from the 15 March CME are expected to linger through through
days 1-2 (17-18 Mar). The WSA/ENLIL model approximates solar wind
speeds associated with this CME to approach 800-900 km/s. By mid to
late on day 2 and through day 3 (19 Mar), solar wind conditions are
expected to slowly return to nominal levels.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels until the CME arrived at
17/0601 UTC with a 48 nT sudden impulse. Geomagnetic field activity
quickly rose to active levels at 17/0603 UTC and minor storm (G1) levels
by 17/0643 UTC. Activity reached major storm (G2) levels at 17/0842
UTC.


.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
levels (NOAA Scale G2-Moderate) with possible severe storm conditions
(NOAA Scale G3-Strong) at high latitudes on day 1 (17 Mar)
due to
activity associated with the 15 March CME. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to slowly decrease to quiet to active levels by day 2 (18 Mar)
and quiet levels by day 3 (19 Mar) as CME effects diminish.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SW Data (it hasn't updated yet, but I like to hear that doggy bark):
[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW Data (6-hour plot):
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 2-hr plot:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

News








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