SOLAR WATCH * 248 M & 18 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Your crazy! I hope it's right. Lol

They're still predicting a K=8! If we were seeing more density they could be right.

Wing Kp plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Official Estimated Kp from NOAA back up to 6 now:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Potsdam Kp Index:

[link to www.theusner.eu]

Geomagnetic K-indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NASA oughtta fire the guy who predicted a 4-hour disturbance, LOL.

Kp prediction back up to 9!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Sorry,8.7

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

it could get that high easy
the wind speed is fast enough, the Bz is south, now all we need is a tad more density thrown into the mix to really kick this storm into high gear
and i for one sure expected way more density with this CME that the 6-10 range
clicking refresh on ACE like im getting paid per refresh hahaha
cause i just have a feeling this density will jump here any time

Yes,what the Foxtrott is down with that ridiculous assertion from the NASA Gimpus!?

Anyhoo',Lunar H2O Depositions due to Solar Wind -

'ANN ARBOR—The most likely source of the water locked inside soils on the moon's surface is the constant stream of charged particles from the sun known as the solar wind, a University of Michigan researcher and his colleagues have concluded.

Over the last five years, spacecraft observations and new lab measurements of Apollo lunar samples have overturned the long-held belief that the moon is bone-dry.

In 2009, NASA's Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing satellite, known as LCROSS, slammed into a permanently shadowed lunar crater and ejected a plume of material that was surprisingly rich in water ice. Water and related compounds have also been detected in the lunar regolith, the layer of fine powder and rock fragments that coats the lunar surface' [link to ns.umich.edu] .

Starwater,the quest continues.

Fragglacious!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] .

Excellent and timely tutorial Hugh, thanks!

So you think we will hit K9?

did i miss someone taling about the new CME seen on STEREO?
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

ooh nice

NOAA Discussion....the story so far-

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Observations from the SWEPAM instrument aboard the ACE spacecraft
suggest the 15 March CME arrived at approximately 17/0528 UTC. Solar
wind speed jumped from about 430 km/s to the 650 km/s range with a peak
of 763 km/s at 17/0544 UTC. Bt jumped from around 5 nT to eventually
peak near 21 nT. Bz which had been neutral dropped to a low of
approximately -19 nT over the course of the next three hours. Shock
arrival was also evident in the temperature and density measurements.

.Forecast...
Effects from the 15 March CME are expected to linger through through
days 1-2 (17-18 Mar). The WSA/ENLIL model approximates solar wind
speeds associated with this CME to approach 800-900 km/s. By mid to
late on day 2 and through day 3 (19 Mar), solar wind conditions are
expected to slowly return to nominal levels.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels until the CME arrived at
17/0601 UTC with a 48 nT sudden impulse. Geomagnetic field activity
quickly rose to active levels at 17/0603 UTC and minor storm (G1) levels
by 17/0643 UTC. Activity reached major storm (G2) levels at 17/0842
UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
levels (NOAA Scale G2-Moderate) with possible severe storm conditions
(NOAA Scale G3-Strong) at high latitudes on day 1 (17 Mar) due to
activity associated with the 15 March CME. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to slowly decrease to quiet to active levels by day 2 (18 Mar)
and quiet levels by day 3 (19 Mar) as CME effects diminish.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO SW Data (it hasn't updated yet, but I like to hear that doggy bark):
[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE SW Data (6-hour plot):
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE 2-hr plot:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The simulation model (one of them) on Solarham have updated seemingly to indicate it was not Earth directed.

Cesium spotted it a page back

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Looks to be headed north?

[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

Heavy particle absorption!

Had some experience with the Wing Kp predictions, and that experience has led me to not put much stock in them. I don't even look at the Wing Kp predictions anymore, lol!

Great storm guys!

Kp #'s: 6+, 6o, 6-, 6+

[link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

Last time we had a Kp 6+ storm was Nov. 14

[link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de]

Last Edited by madajs. on 03/17/2013 01:09 PM

i have not looked at that yet, but i would disagree
it appears to be at least somewhat earth directed CME from an unnumbered region in the south east region
Before CME
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Beginning of CME
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
during CME
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

event still ongoing

if someone can, a movie of this event would be greatly appreciated

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/17/2013 01:12 PM

Pretty sure??? S0 addressed it in todays vid, posted by Tiny Trink a page back, said it went high north of us.

ill have to look, cause the event im talking about is occuring right now

The event SO was talking about happened in the North West area and happened yesterday
the one im talking about is in the South East and is occuring right now

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

There was a far-side filament eruption just over the NW limb at 14:45z. I think that's the CME on ST. A.

But there was also a large filament liftoff Earthside near the equatorial east at 16:45 or thereabouts. This one is possibly geoeffective:

Big Bear H-alpha movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

SDO composite image of Hyder-flare eruption:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Something caused a universal time shift on Wednesday 13th March, something very extraordinary that must have a colossal mass to bend time. This could have been a super nova exploding or a black hole imploding, but the real problem is the shock wave that has yet to hit earth. My prediction is the wave will hit Tuesday over North America.

quoted

Damn...I get those ahead and behind shots all mixed up, sorry, lol

just saiyn we have a mix and michelanious of things here

Interesting, I wonder how one knows a universal time shift has occurred?

OO00ooooffff!?

Nicenesses!