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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium
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04/06/2013 07:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone

:SunMoon19:

SC :SmileFlyHug:
 Quoting: shenue


Nacht Nacht Shenu!
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 07:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
shadasonic

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04/06/2013 07:55 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I get away from this thread for periods and I forget how very bright all of you are and how much I appreciate the rhetoric!Peace yall theres my rhetorical southern good night send off!LOL
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 07:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Night ShadaSolarSonic sleeping

Peas.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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04/06/2013 08:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
shadasonic

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04/06/2013 08:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
 Quoting: TS66


So true and thats coming from someone with great knowledge on the issue. We wait and watch!hf
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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04/06/2013 08:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
 Quoting: TS66


So true and thats coming from someone with great knowledge on the issue. We wait and watch!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


You give me far too much credit Shada.

I'm watching for the catalyst, the one thing that makes a SR, magnetically complex or not, activate.

I love the posters here, and all the theories they bring to the table, now we need only find that pattern, connect the dots, and find the source.
Anonymous Coward
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04/06/2013 08:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Night ShadaSolarSonic sleeping

Peas.
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Goodnight Shada and all, get good rest hf
shadasonic

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04/06/2013 08:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
 Quoting: TS66


So true and thats coming from someone with great knowledge on the issue. We wait and watch!hf
 Quoting: shadasonic


You give me far too much credit Shada.

I'm watching for the catalyst, the one thing that makes a SR, magnetically complex or not, activate.

I love the posters here, and all the theories they bring to the table, now we need only find that pattern, connect the dots, and find the source.
 Quoting: TS66


I've watched you evolve over the last couple years, you were meant to be a part of this brilliant group, your mind and heart have found their habitual pleasure zone, you're a solsis!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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04/06/2013 08:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I think its important to realize our abilities and positions in the coming days. Theres alot going on. the solcrew has such diverse knowledge and the basics for physical science. Anyone thats been here for awhile understands way more than they give themselves credit for. Thank you Nin for your diverse schooling, you have always lead by example. Stay alert, NK is a smokescreen for something!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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04/06/2013 08:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good Morning All

:FemHugeCoffee:
 Quoting: shenue


shenue, your morning/evening smilies take the cake!

cake3
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
Isis One

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04/06/2013 09:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great job Solcrew, thoroughly enjoyed the roundup of days events. I was thinking things looked like a solar max today at spaceweather.com. Da, I saw that too and thought of you. Welcome to our new Canadian Solsis. Shad, you are the glue that holds Solcrew and Fog together. I don't know what we'd do without you......and Mama Nin, of course. Am loving all the energy from Sol today.

Side note. If chemtrails are supposed to be reflecting unneeded radiation back out into space, why do they spray at night!!! The checkboard out there this evening was crazy. One set looked like a gigantic x/y axis, breadking sky up into 4 quadrants, like they were spraying a directional grid for locating something.

Maybe a nice little surprise, just after 04:00

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Nope, just a little turdpoop

Last Edited by Isis One on 04/06/2013 09:32 PM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
curi0sis*SolSis
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04/06/2013 09:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great job Solcrew, thoroughly enjoyed the roundup of days events. I was thinking things looked like a solar max today at spaceweather.com. Da, I saw that too and thought of you. Welcome to our new Canadian Solsis. Shad, you are the glue that holds Solcrew and Fog together. I don't know what we'd do without you......and Mama Nin, of course. Am loving all the energy from Sol today.

Side note. If chemtrails are supposed to be reflecting unneeded radiation back out into space, why do they spray at night!!! The checkboard out there this evening was crazy. One set looked like a gigantic x/y axis, breadking sky up into 4 quadrants, like they were spraying a directional grid for locating something.

Maybe a nice little surprise, just after 04:00

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Thanks Isis : )

I'm no Solar expert by this group's standards -- by far! but I could start showing a bit of "the true real Solar stuff" to my mainstream oriented entourage, at least -- if only they were a bit more open-minded... I'm still wrapping my head around the chemtrails issue lol, let alone the Sol stuff. But learning as much and as fast as I can. Following you guys is a tremendous tool for that.

Isis, I share your question on night-time chems. Do 'they' prepare for sunrise, needing for a much heavier blanket in some instances more than on other days?

Bonsoir / bonne nuit allyouz! (I'm Atlantic time zone)
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 11:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
 Quoting: TS66


Never judge Sol by Daily happenings!

Long term is where it's at,really.

Carrington could happen at anytime,regardless,for sure!

The Convective motions below Sol which create the the primers that inform the Cycles ist Kaput(well,very slow)

The polarities of the Sunspots at present is all sideways,lol,they do not look right at all,there is no doubt in my mind that this Cycle is it.

Doesn't mean no CMEs' or Flares,but a lack of Sunspots worth their weight and a general lowering of Solar Winds and the decreasing Heliosphere/Cosmic ray influx and Atmospheric effects that come with a period of really epic non Sunnesses,lol.

'(...)let go...nobody listens to Techno(...)' music

I do,actually,but you get what I'm sayin',Init' Blood!?

Stop,Freak time -

[link to www.youtube.com]

Wtf is wrong with People - how the Fuck do you teach someone like that?

Anyway,just had another Flare from 1719,B8.0.

Regarding not judging the Sun Day to Day,Check the Synoptic charts etc. on WSO [link to wso.stanford.edu]

I do hope I am wrong about this all.

Respecticus.

sun
near
sunhf
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 11:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great job Solcrew, thoroughly enjoyed the roundup of days events. I was thinking things looked like a solar max today at spaceweather.com. Da, I saw that too and thought of you. Welcome to our new Canadian Solsis. Shad, you are the glue that holds Solcrew and Fog together. I don't know what we'd do without you......and Mama Nin, of course. Am loving all the energy from Sol today.

Side note. If chemtrails are supposed to be reflecting unneeded radiation back out into space, why do they spray at night!!! The checkboard out there this evening was crazy. One set looked like a gigantic x/y axis, breadking sky up into 4 quadrants, like they were spraying a directional grid for locating something.

Maybe a nice little surprise, just after 04:00

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Thanks Isis : )

I'm no Solar expert by this group's standards -- by far! but I could start showing a bit of "the true real Solar stuff" to my mainstream oriented entourage, at least -- if only they were a bit more open-minded... I'm still wrapping my head around the chemtrails issue lol, let alone the Sol stuff. But learning as much and as fast as I can. Following you guys is a tremendous tool for that.

Isis, I share your question on night-time chems. Do 'they' prepare for sunrise, needing for a much heavier blanket in some instances more than on other days?

Bonsoir / bonne nuit allyouz! (I'm Atlantic time zone)
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis 37433541


Or is there something about the angle of the Suns' rays at Sunrise/set that causes Cloud Nucleation?

This is what I am trying to figure out,because if there is it isn't being spoken of loud enough for folks to hear.

Hello btw Curiosishi

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 11:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From the friendly folks at NOAA-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1718 (N22E33) produced the
largest event of the period, a C1 flare, at 06/1142 UTC. Regions 1713
(N10W33)and 1718, classified as D-type spot groups with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics, both showed a growth trend over the past 24
hours. Region 1719 (N08E66) showed slight growth in its trailer spots,

and was classified as a Cso-type spot group with beta magnetic
characteristics. The other regions on the disk were either stable or
decaying. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:4/7-1719:

The Sunspot Number jumped to 146 today! Any talk of Grand Minimums should be scotched until we have at least a few weeks of SS#=0, LOL.

Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 97 Issued at 0030Z on 07 Apr 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 06 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 06/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1711 S17W16 158 0440 Dho 05 05 Beta
1713 N10W33 175 0130 Dai 09 16 Beta-Gamma
1714 N13E14 128 0080 Cso 06 06 Beta
1715 N18W39 181 0010 Bxo 02 04 Beta
1717 S12E51 091 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta
1718 N22E33 109 0130 Dsi 07 10 Beta-Gamma
1719 N08E66 076 0080 Cso 02 04 Beta

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Highlighted etc.

This is why I am arguing that in a Period of massively decreased Dipole Strength Sunspot Number does not Correlate to Solar Output in terms of a average.

No way at all.

Just as with CMEs' and Flares = no Correlation or need for relationship at least.

I think we can all agree that Solar Output is not normal,ergo Minima.

Longer term trend Minima.

This one compared with other shit ones [link to www.solen.info]

And better ones [link to www.solen.info]

Death to Sunspot Counts!

jihadjihad2

angel3

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 04/06/2013 11:16 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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04/06/2013 11:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That last Flare,1711 not 1719 [link to halpha.nso.edu] .

: )
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Da fuq

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04/06/2013 11:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


Triforce

Last Edited by Da fuq on 04/06/2013 11:42 PM
Spittin'Cesium

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04/07/2013 01:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sort it out guys!

more Flaring,but got to guess,1718 [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

?

sun
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Tiny Trink

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04/07/2013 04:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Much Love,

[link to www.youtube.com]


Tiny Trink, Double T, Tink Tink, T x 2

"You are responsible for the Energy you bring into a space" ~ Dr. Jill Bolte Taylor

Shine Brightly as someone is needing your Inner Light to find theirs.
Anonymous Coward
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04/07/2013 04:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sort it out guys!

more Flaring,but got to guess,1718 [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

?

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Cesium, let me be more politically correct ... this being my first solar max, up front and personal that is, I'm keeping an open mind wink

The historical data may show a minimum trend, as seen in the past I agree, but ...... until we know the catalyst. The historical data doesn't tell us why the sun goes to minimum or maximum, why,or for how long. Just that at times it does. And that sometimes you can see it coming for several cycles prior, and you can assume(not know)that the next will follow suit. It's just too early to know.

Homeric minimum 950BC-800BC 50 years
Oort minimum 1040-1080 40 years
Medieval maximum 1100-1250 150 years
Wolf minimum 1280-1350 70 years
Spörer Minimum 1450-1550 100 years
Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 70 years
Dalton Minimum 1790-1820 30 years

:solarspots:

Some are 30 years, some are 150 years.

Certainly between the dates of 1890 and 1930, (and as we watch our own magnetosphere today,during low solar activity, the most opportune moment for a "Carrington Event" to effect us here on Earth) we saw a significant drop in solar spot numbers, yet it was never considered a minimum, and slid into one of the highest maximums in recorded history.

All I'm saying is, I don't know. Just like you I'm watching the patterns and trends, and my mind is set on ... nothing hf
Anonymous Coward
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04/07/2013 05:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sort it out guys!

more Flaring,but got to guess,1718 [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

?

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Cesium, let me be more politically correct ... this being my first solar max, up front and personal that is, I'm keeping an open mind wink

The historical data may show a minimum trend, as seen in the past I agree, but ...... until we know the catalyst. The historical data doesn't tell us why the sun goes to minimum or maximum, why,or for how long. Just that at times it does. And that sometimes you can see it coming for several cycles prior, and you can assume(not know)that the next will follow suit. It's just too early to know.

Homeric minimum 950BC-800BC 50 years
Oort minimum 1040-1080 40 years
Medieval maximum 1100-1250 150 years
Wolf minimum 1280-1350 70 years
Spörer Minimum 1450-1550 100 years
Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 70 years
Dalton Minimum 1790-1820 30 years

:solarspots:

Some are 30 years, some are 150 years.

Certainly between the dates of 1890 and 1930, (and as we watch our own magnetosphere today,during low solar activity, the most opportune moment for a "Carrington Event" to effect us here on Earth) we saw a significant drop in solar spot numbers, and a much lower spot count than we are seeing even now, yet it was never considered a minimum, and slid into one of the highest maximums in recorded history.

All I'm saying is, I don't know. Just like you I'm watching the patterns and trends, and my mind is set on ... nothing hf
 Quoting: TS66



And just to be clear, I do not believe that the sun is a living,breathing entity with a mind to do as it pleases ... we are missing the mechanics, the science of why.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry :shy:, good morning all hf

1713, 18,are BGs and 19 a BGD (nice looking one at that wink) IMHO.

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry shy, good morning all hf

1713, 18,are BGs and 19 a BGD (nice looking one at that wink) IMHO.

III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
 Quoting: TS66


Good morning, 66 & sun friends. A C1.4 flare was recorded from the SE limb. Here's a rundown for AR1719 from Solar Monitor:

[link to www.solarmonitor.org]

AR1719 Magnetogram-
:1719mag:
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello you lovely people. I apologise for lack of participation lately but it has been a strange & sad time (which a couple of you know). I have, however, been a'lurking & just wanted to say thank you for sharing your knowledge :))

Ele x
Da fuq

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Luisport

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04/07/2013 12:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Non-categorized event in Russia [Asia] on Sunday, 07 April, 2013 at 15:57 (03:57 PM) UTC.

Description
Russia's Emergencies Ministry rejected media reports on Sunday that a new meteorite had crashed in the country's northwest. Some media reports said on Sunday eye-witnesses saw the fall of an unidentified flying object near the town of Tosno in the Leningrad Region. "No facts of the fall of a meteorite have been confirmed," the ministry's spokeswoman said. Rescuers from the Emergencies Ministry went to the site of the presumed meteor crash after a call by eye-witnesses but did not find anything, she said. Meteor mania started in Russia in February after a meteorite exploded over the Urals city of Chelyabinsk. The meteorite slammed into the Urals region on February 15, landing with a massive boom that blew out windows and damaged thousands of buildings around Chelyabinsk, injuring 1,200 people in the area. Health officials say 52 people were hospitalized. NASA estimates the meteorite was roughly 15 meters (50 feet) in diameter when it struck the Earth's atmosphere, travelling faster than the speed of sound, and exploded in a fireball brighter than the sun. The meteor was the largest object to enter the planet's atmosphere in 83 years. [link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
shenue

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04/07/2013 12:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ten C flares for the 6th. All earth facing. hf
 Quoting: TS66


It is a treat hey!?

hi66 : )

Then you look at this [link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov] and I think 'Last gasps'

Fuck me,I hope not.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


My opinion on this solar max changes day to day . Regardless, we currently have 10 earth facing SRs some capable of M & C flares.

When all else fails, I remind myself that the Carrington event really had nothing to do withe solar max at all ... so I wait, watch, and learn, if nothing else..... just how clueless we truly are . wink
 Quoting: TS66


Never judge Sol by Daily happenings!

Long term is where it's at,really.

Carrington could happen at anytime,regardless,for sure!

The Convective motions below Sol which create the the primers that inform the Cycles ist Kaput(well,very slow)

The polarities of the Sunspots at present is all sideways,lol,they do not look right at all,there is no doubt in my mind that this Cycle is it.

Doesn't mean no CMEs' or Flares,but a lack of Sunspots worth their weight and a general lowering of Solar Winds and the decreasing Heliosphere/Cosmic ray influx and Atmospheric effects that come with a period of really epic non Sunnesses,lol.

'(...)let go...nobody listens to Techno(...)' music

I do,actually,but you get what I'm sayin',Init' Blood!?

Stop,Freak time -

[link to www.youtube.com]

Wtf is wrong with People - how the Fuck do you teach someone like that?

Anyway,just had another Flare from 1719,B8.0.

Regarding not judging the Sun Day to Day,Check the Synoptic charts etc. on WSO [link to wso.stanford.edu]

I do hope I am wrong about this all.

Respecticus.

sun
near
sunhf
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I had assumed that Carrington happened during a Max. I didn't realize it was at a minimum until I read what 66 said above and I looked it up. Also, it seems that the Halloween storms in '03' happened 3 years after a Max. Don't know why I assumed that big events would only happen during a Max. When I think about it, of course they could happen at any time. duh me
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Hugh M Eye

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04/07/2013 12:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1718 has produced an impulsive C3.1 flare.

X-Ray flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GONG H-alpha movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Spittin'Cesium

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04/07/2013 12:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sort it out guys!

more Flaring,but got to guess,1718 [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

?

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium



Cesium, let me be more politically correct ... this being my first solar max, up front and personal that is, I'm keeping an open mind wink

The historical data may show a minimum trend, as seen in the past I agree, but ...... until we know the catalyst. The historical data doesn't tell us why the sun goes to minimum or maximum, why,or for how long. Just that at times it does. And that sometimes you can see it coming for several cycles prior, and you can assume(not know)that the next will follow suit. It's just too early to know.

Homeric minimum 950BC-800BC 50 years
Oort minimum 1040-1080 40 years
Medieval maximum 1100-1250 150 years
Wolf minimum 1280-1350 70 years
Spörer Minimum 1450-1550 100 years
Maunder Minimum 1645-1715 70 years
Dalton Minimum 1790-1820 30 years

:solarspots:

Some are 30 years, some are 150 years.

Certainly between the dates of 1890 and 1930, (and as we watch our own magnetosphere today,during low solar activity, the most opportune moment for a "Carrington Event" to effect us here on Earth) we saw a significant drop in solar spot numbers, yet it was never considered a minimum, and slid into one of the highest maximums in recorded history.

All I'm saying is, I don't know. Just like you I'm watching the patterns and trends, and my mind is set on ... nothing hf
 Quoting: TS66


Hello 66hi

Totally sound reasoning and I did think to myself after posting that I may have come across a little to 'definite'(though I do personally think we have a pretty good bunch of primers to choose from and even use together,which is what I think may not be what has been going on per.ze Catalyst(s) )

Barycentric Oscillations being a long term one(Graviational pulling of the Sunabout its' Mass center point by the Planets causing the Solar Inertial Motions))with which Mr.'L' got this minimums massively waning dipole and onset of the lower output to a T(2000)

Also,expounding that work is Vukcevic who also is(has been)93% - 96% accurate in his predictions and back modeling using his Formulae(posted before)he is pretty good indeed [link to www.vukcevic.talktalk.net] !

Then we have another potential major player if tied in and that is the Jovian EM Solar Cycle(which I need to look at still)and the other Harmonic(literal)numbers to add into the mix like this 4:5:6(C-E-G)discovery(that being the Hz at which Earth runs..the note of C - 261.blah Hz)Mr'L' got this [link to tallbloke.files.wordpress.com] Explanation:Fig 3. Prototypal pattern of a composite wave formed by the superimposition of harmonics with the frequency ratio 4:5:6. The time units 0-100 represent normalised centesimal fractions of JU-CM-CS cycles of any length. The positive phases of the composite wave coincide with clusters of solar cosmic ray events (P) observed from 1942 to 1969 and flare-generated X-Ray bursts equal to or greater than class X4 (marked by pointers) registered 1970 through 1986.
End
Which is a pretty good start,he had this to say -
'The results presented here are only a first step in a new direction. It is intriguing that the ratio of the superimposed harmonics 4:5:6 is that of the major perfect chord in musical harmony. Kepler had found just this chord C-E-G when he analysed the ratios of the velocities of different planets at aphelion and perihelion. Kepler’s finding is also valid for the outer planets Uranus and Pluto. Thus, the major perfect chord turns out to be a fundamental structural element of the planetary system. The results presented here are a new substantiation of the Pythagorean harmony of the spheres at a complex level that relates planetary configurations to the Sun’s oscillations about the centre of mass, solar rotation, the sun’s activity, and solar-terrestrial interaction' [link to tallbloke.wordpress.com]

Also we have the other(thought to be known)Cycles(with decent words along the points we are discussing too)

'The sun goes through its cycles as it will and at its own pace and we continue to struggle to try and decipher the various cycles that exist, what causes them and what effects they have on the earth. Some of the cycles known or hypothesised to exist are the:

11 year sunspot cycle
22 year magnetic cycle
87 year Gleissberg cycle
166 year “unnamed” cycle
210 years Suess or de Vries cycle
2,300 years Hallstat cycle
6000 years Xapsos and Burke cycle




' [link to ktwop.wordpress.com]

And we know that the Dipole is massively lower than it has been for ages,and looks like the Maunder kind of low where the next few Cycles are possibly no starters,we know about the Sub-surface convection Zones and how they have slowed to the point that Fields are hard to Generate in strength -

'Latitude-time plots of jet streams under the Sun's surface show the surprising shutdown of the solar cycle mechanism. New jet streams associated with a future 2018-2020 solar maximum were expected to form by 2008 but are not present even now, indicating a delayed or missing Cycle 25'

And I just lost my train of thought,lol..ffs...
But basically,we just need someone to pull their finger out there Royal Society backed 'Shut your Mouths' Official Scientific Studies and Scientists butts and model all the above,harmoniously : )

Then we may be able to say we actually 'know' rather than round-abouts know..but then there will naturally be other 'Rumsfields' that will always throw off a few Years here and there for sure,they could be later correlated and modeled too,one day.

But this is nearly all of our first Cycles and we know only one thing for certain - Shit Happens and previous Solar Science(of the Dr.Strong stance,not the non-eu stuff,the 'I knew them so it can't be..in 1970...' stuffs)is way off base - as I think I may have shown above with all the beautiful coefficients that have been widely ignored because of either Political Climatology or stuffy-nosed and rack wielding Peer-reviewers,in their Black Moks Hoods and Capes : )

Still,what causes Flares!?

LOL

I agree with you awesome 66,but I do think we can show a way,at leasthf

Exo1

sun

rockon

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 04/07/2013 01:11 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1

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