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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/02/2011 11:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
yes!! cmon plz plz be an X flare!! scheming
tomasgod1

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08/02/2011 11:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm in Glen Rose, TX and we saw 113 on the barn thermometer in the shade.... So hot the electric fans kick on and off from over heating, had to put up mist system to get compressors on HVAC systems to cool. To top it off news just confirmed we are maxed out on power grid. I noticed they retrofitted some main supply lines from the power plants with resistors but these are the "hard switch" type that once thrown require manual resets which since entire line down grid is not protected would simply set off a chain reaction. I so hate half ass job ugh! If we get proton event of any size PUFF ZZZZT POWWW!
XP...
 Quoting: XP...


Hey XP :), looks like we are in this same boat!
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tomasgod1

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08/02/2011 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This flare is from Region 1261 again.
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]

Nice saturation on the Global D Absorbtion.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/02/2011 11:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1260 = chance for Falre X:57% M:62%
1261 = chance for Falre X:69% M:67%
1263 = chance for Falre X:57% M:62%
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

now them are some bettin odds
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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08/03/2011 12:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1260 = chance for Falre X:57% M:62%
1261 = chance for Falre X:69% M:67%
1263 = chance for Falre X:57% M:62%
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

now them are some bettin odds
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yup!

Do you see a familiar pattern here?, I do. This is similar to when this thread started. There were rythmical M flares during the evening hours close to 24 hour intervals. The big difference is that at that time we were having missing data during some of them because they were taking place during the satellite eclipses.
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 12:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Someone mentioned another m1, earth directed flare in another thread.. is this true? Just curious.


I'm thinking it's going to be a busy week!
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 12:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is your X guys
on its way now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

not this time
it putzed out at a M1.7

but she is on her way

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/03/2011 12:38 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
XP...

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08/03/2011 12:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is your X guys
on its way now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

not this time
it putzed out at a M1.7

but she is on her way
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Wow ok great now I will be up all night lol!
XP...
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
tomasgod1

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08/03/2011 12:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is your X guys
on its way now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

not this time
it putzed out at a M1.7

but she is on her way
 Quoting: NiNzrez


It's trying hard!
_______

Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

YouTube Channel
[link to www.youtube.com]

"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 12:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1260 = chance for Flare X:57% M:62%
1261 = chance for Flare X:69% M:67%
1263 = chance for Flare X:57% M:62%
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

now them are some bettin odds
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yup!

Do you see a familiar pattern here?, I do. This is similar to when this thread started. There were rythmical M flares during the evening hours close to 24 hour intervals. The big difference is that at that time we were having missing data during some of them because they were taking place during the satellite eclipses.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


i notice the same thing tom
has me kind of on egde here
we just had another M tom
this makes 3 total since this time last night
same type of pattern, now what wil the outcome be.. and where? :/

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/03/2011 12:46 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
XP...

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08/03/2011 12:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What is delay time on soho lasco c2 images?
"The world will not be destroyed by evil, it will be destroyed by the ones who do nothing to stop the evil."
"Lead or follow just get the hell out of my way!"
XP...
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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08/03/2011 12:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
here is your X guys
on its way now
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

not this time
it putzed out at a M1.7

but she is on her way
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Wow ok great now I will be up all night lol!
XP...
 Quoting: XP...


hahaha you too?
i only got 2hrs last night then worked today, and im still going
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
JoanofArc

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08/03/2011 12:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
stoner
Red Hot Chilean Pepe (nli)
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Chile
08/03/2011 12:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Ninzrez, was there a CME associated to these last 2 flares?

Thanks for your answer in advance.
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 12:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hello Ninzrez, was there a CME associated to these last 2 flares?

Thanks for your answer in advance.
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe (nli) 1492273


going to go look now...

the flux stopped dropping, might be ready to rise again
keep watching!
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 12:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Red Hot Chilean Pepe (nli)
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08/03/2011 01:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks Ninzrez, you are on top of all this.

My Best Regards!!!
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 01:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes there was one from i believe 1263, but still need to do a bit more to comfirm that it was this spot
if you open these 2 tabs, and switch between the 2, you can see it mass come out of 1263 (far left sunspot group)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

then we look over at STEREO
here it is on A
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Red Hot Chilean Pepe (nli)
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08/03/2011 01:20 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes there was one from i believe 1263, but still need to do a bit more to comfirm that it was this spot
if you open these 2 tabs, and switch between the 2, you can see it mass come out of 1263 (far left sunspot group)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

then we look over at STEREO
here it is on A
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks! I see clearly the CME, not really massive, but a CME none the less.

Will have to see what happens when we get slammed by the two consecutive CMEs.

BTW, the M 9.4 of a few days was geoefective or not?
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 02:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out these supspot groups on the magnetogram
[link to obs.astro.ucla.edu]
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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RJsGma

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08/03/2011 02:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


Where the heck you at? Arizona?
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


North Central TX. LOL
 Quoting: tomasgod1


I lived in Houston some time back but I never felt temps in the 110 digits. Maybe 100 but that was it.
 Quoting: El Quisqueyano


This year is extreme. As I was watching the 10:00 news I just found out that we had a grid emergency level 1 today, so here we go!



"DALLAS — The operator of the state's electric grid said it is purchasing electricity from Mexico and other states as record high temperatures force Texas to set new electricity consumption records.


Oncor said more than 6,000 customers lost electricity Tuesday evening when a substation failed in North Dallas.

Traffic signals went dark in intersections and air conditioners turned off in homes.

Oncor told News 8 that the problem is directly related to the excessive heat and added strain on the state's electrical grid.

"The high usage is causing people to use more electricity in order to stay safe and comfortable and it's making it harder for our equipment to cool off," said Catherine Cuellar, Oncor spokeswoman.


Hours earlier, The Electric Reliability Council of Texas initiated an Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 when reserves dropped below 2,300 megawatts, an ERCOT spokeswoman said.

"We are requesting that consumers and businesses reduce their electricity use during peak electricity hours from 3 to 7 p.m. today, particularly between 4 and 5 p.m. when we expect to hit another peak demand record," said Kent Saathoff, vice president of system planning and operations.

The emergency was declared over early Tuesday evening after the state set a new power consumption record of 67,729 megawatts, but another record is expected to be set on Wednesday as officials urged customers to conserve power whenever possible.

ERCOT is still a couple of steps away from rolling brownouts, Saathoff said."
[link to www.wfaa.com]

By the way...the forcasted high temp is for 110 - 111 again tomorrow...gesh! They keep changing the forecast and the temps get higher and higher, it was supposed to be 107 today not 110.

WFAA Weather Center Forecastby Weather Producer

Updated today at 10:30 PM

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THURSDAY.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear skies and very warm. Low: 84. Winds: S 5-10.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny skies and dangerously hot. High: 111. Winds: S 5-10.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, very warm. Low: 83. Winds: S 5-10.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and continued very hot. High: 109. Winds: S 5-10.

[link to www.wfaa.com]
 Quoting: tomasgod1


Be glad you aint in Iraq, 125 there!

[link to thewatchers.adorraeli.com]
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/03/2011 02:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes there was one from i believe 1263, but still need to do a bit more to comfirm that it was this spot
if you open these 2 tabs, and switch between the 2, you can see it mass come out of 1263 (far left sunspot group)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

then we look over at STEREO
here it is on A
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks! I see clearly the CME, not really massive, but a CME none the less.

Will have to see what happens when we get slammed by the two consecutive CMEs.

BTW, the M 9.4 of a few days was geoefective or not?
 Quoting: Red Hot Chilean Pepe (nli) 1492273


that did not prodduce a CME with it
the M1 on Aug 2nd did though
[link to spaceweather.com]
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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
tomasgod1

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08/03/2011 03:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 496
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 03 0445 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2011 Aug 03 0431 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Aug 03 0431 UTC
End Time: 2011 Aug 03 0432 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 140 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 122 sfu

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 477
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 03 0448 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
NOAA Scale: Periods reaching the G1 (Minor) Level Likely
Valid for UTC Day: 2011 Aug 05

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
_______

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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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"Give me Liberty, or give me Death!"
FOUNDING FATHER, Patrick Henry (May 29, 1736 – June 6, 1799)
Anonymous Coward
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India
08/03/2011 03:41 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This do predicts increased solar activity from 3rd August onwards, Pg 35. It also has other interesting stuff...

[link to www.scribd.com]
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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08/03/2011 05:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1260 = chance for Flare X:57% M:62%
1261 = chance for Flare X:69% M:67%
1263 = chance for Flare X:57% M:62%
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]

now them are some bettin odds
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Yup!

Do you see a familiar pattern here?, I do. This is similar to when this thread started. There were rythmical M flares during the evening hours close to 24 hour intervals. The big difference is that at that time we were having missing data during some of them because they were taking place during the satellite eclipses.
 Quoting: tomasgod1


i notice the same thing tom
has me kind of on egde here
we just had another M tom
this makes 3 total since this time last night
same type of pattern, now what wil the outcome be.. and where? :/
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Do you folks ever sleep..lol...at least it`s starting to get exciting again...did either of these two carry a CME? Sorry if it`s been answered already but I just woke up...
Anonymous Coward
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Germany
08/03/2011 05:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi all and good morning from germany^^

today there is a spacewalk by russian astronauts from 16:00 CEST, 6 hr excursion for Sergei Volkov & Alexander Samokutyaev


could be int by all this sun activity...

opend a thread

Thread: Hello Nasa ISStards, today Live coverage of Russian spacewalk
Enchanted Wanderer

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Australia
08/03/2011 06:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Morning all..

Just wanted to share a post (got permission) i found the connection very interesting

hf


From Intentionally Blank:

These flares will all be geoeffective.

The Ring of Fire's really gonna be rockin' and rollin' over the next few days.

We've already seen unprecendented geophysical activity over the last two-three weeks (on average at least one 6.0+ quake per day, a massive increase in 4-5MAG quakes, plus more volcanic activity).

Keep in mind also there are three extremely dire astrological aspects reigning in our skies at the moment:

a cardinal Grand cross (not good - extremely rare), a YOD (Fist of God or Thor's Hammer) pattern featuring Pluto (death) and Chiron (transformation) - this aspect was in the ascendent during the Indonesian and Japan EQ/Tsunamis.

So... there are very strong indications astrologically for a powerful EQ/tsunami anywhere from now over the next few days. Keep an eye on...
Time for a new reality [link to www.thevenusproject.com]
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DDan

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08/03/2011 08:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there might have been a CME from 1263
i will have to wait for more photo updates on sites to be sure though
 Quoting: NiNzrez


yes there was one from i believe 1263, but still need to do a bit more to comfirm that it was this spot
if you open these 2 tabs, and switch between the 2, you can see it mass come out of 1263 (far left sunspot group)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

then we look over at STEREO
here it is on A
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


If you look at the STEREO-A images as a SlideShow, it looks as if it is "pulsing"?? Can anyone confirm that?

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by DDan on 08/03/2011 08:10 AM
Kind Regards,
Dan
<<LOOK`n thru YOU>>

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08/03/2011 09:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Got one climbing up into the M category...still going up

[link to www.solarham.com]

Last Edited by <<LOOK`n thru YOU>> on 08/03/2011 09:33 AM
Anonymous Coward
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08/03/2011 09:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Got one climbing up into the M category...still going up

[link to www.solarham.com]
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


Dang. Looks like it's starting to reach it's peak...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


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