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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 37348904
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04/22/2013 07:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did anyone see an M-flare today? Here's a solarsoft close-up movie of it:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1726 has completely morphed in the past 24 hrs. The double-lobed appearance is gone and and it's size has mushroomed again. Compare this composite with the one I posted on the previous page yesterday:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1726-
:1726_HMIIC:
SCizMe
User ID: 38348402
United Kingdom
04/22/2013 08:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did anyone see an M-flare today? Here's a solarsoft close-up movie of it:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1726 has completely morphed in the past 24 hrs. The double-lobed appearance is gone and and it's size has mushroomed again. Compare this composite with the one I posted on the previous page yesterday:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1726-
:1726_HMIIC:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Don't blame moi,you guys are holding down the fortress,I am on holiday,ta : P

sun
whiteangel

User ID: 1775746
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04/22/2013 08:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]


Mr. 1726 with that M1
 Quoting: shadasonic


Did anyone see an M-flare today? Here's a solarsoft close-up movie of it:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1726 has completely morphed in the past 24 hrs. The double-lobed appearance is gone and and it's size has mushroomed again. Compare this composite with the one I posted on the previous page yesterday:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1726-
:1726_HMIIC:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Yup, Shad posted it hf
Galatians 5:18 But if ye be led of the Spirit, ye are not under the law.
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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04/22/2013 08:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


Very cool Luis. It seems we're going to get covered in comet Ison dust in January that may produce some widespread noctilucent electric blue clouds, that will be quite the sight also!


Hey TS are you out there missing your posts!
 Quoting: shadasonic


I'm here, I'm watching wink You guys are doing wonderfully hf
 Quoting: TS66


same here :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/22/2013 08:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the ACE 24hr low energy proton plot sure does look wacky
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceplot422

and so does the ACE 24hr electron plot
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceEplot422

this started and ended at the same time on both plots
Start 05:00 - End 16:00

i still have not sat and spent time looking for a reported reason for the wacky looking plots

here is the link to all the plots
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 04/22/2013 09:03 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 16845676
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04/22/2013 09:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ufo56
photo 2 best hi everyone , love to ya

[link to www.space.com]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
shadasonic

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04/22/2013 10:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the ACE 24hr low energy proton plot sure does look wacky
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceplot422

and so does the ACE 24hr electron plot
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceEplot422

this started and ended at the same time on both plots
Start 05:00 - End 16:00

i still have not sat and spent time looking for a reported reason for the wacky looking plots

here is the link to all the plots
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I didn't get a chance to look into it, but it seemed to coincide with a farside flare, noticed it on C2 but had to run
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/22/2013 10:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the ACE 24hr low energy proton plot sure does look wacky
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceplot422

and so does the ACE 24hr electron plot
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceEplot422

this started and ended at the same time on both plots
Start 05:00 - End 16:00

i still have not sat and spent time looking for a reported reason for the wacky looking plots

here is the link to all the plots
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


I didn't get a chance to look into it, but it seemed to coincide with a farside flare, noticed it on C2 but had to run
 Quoting: shadasonic


i have been looking some, and it does not appear to be a glotch
if you all hurry and look at the 24hr plots for all sensors here
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
you can see there is a disturbance on most all sensors at that same time
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37763042
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04/22/2013 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the ACE 24hr low energy proton plot sure does look wacky
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:aceplot422:

and so does the ACE 24hr electron plot
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

:aceEplot422:

this started and ended at the same time on both plots
Start 05:00 - End 16:00

i still have not sat and spent time looking for a reported reason for the wacky looking plots

here is the link to all the plots
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thats a new one.. Hmm

Quick recovery; have to wonder what it was? With no explanations from NOAA or NASA of a malfunction in equipment then we are left to figure out the natural cause.
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/22/2013 10:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected Events:
*April 23rd, by mid day Coronal hole winds are expected to arrive bringing upon unsettler geomagnetic conditions. This is expected to continue through at least the next 3 days (April 24th - April 26th)
*April 24th, by late in the day we have a possible glancing blow from the CME that occured April 21st @ 20:36

---------------------------------------------------

a geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for April 25th
this is due to the 2 large Coronal Holes that are now Earth facing. The winds from these holes should arrive on around the 25th
[link to www.solen.info]


Issue Time: 2013 Apr 22 2346 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 23: None (Below G1) Apr 24: None (Below G1) Apr 25: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

EARLIER TODAY:
*Geomagnetic Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (22 Apr) with the unsettled periods mid to late in the UTC day due to a possible glancing blow from the 18 Apr CME. By mid day on day 2 (23 Apr), a recurrent CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective increasing activity to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods. CH HSS activity is expected to continue to influence the geomagnetic field through the end of the forecast period (24 Apr).

UPDATE:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days 1 and 2 (23 Apr, 24 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day 3
(25 Apr)
due to the effects of the recurrent CH HSS




EARLIER TODAY:
A CME was observed in C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC. A comparison with SDO/AIA 193 imagery shows darkening around Region 1723 at 21/2008 UTC associated with a C2/Sf flare at 21/2015 UTC. Analysis is pending on the geoeffectiveness of this event

UPDATE:
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2013 Apr 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1726 (N13W35,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple C-flares early in the
period, as well as an impulsive M1 flare at 22/1029 UTC. This region
maintained its magnetic complexity as consolidation occurred in both the
leader and trailer spots, moderate mixing of polarities occurred in the
trailer spots, and area more than doubled to approximately 550
millionths. Region 1726 remains the area of interest for significant
flare production. Regions 1723 (S19W70, Cso/beta) and 1727 (N25E18,
Dao/beta) were stable throughout the period. The coronal mass ejection
(CME) observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC was
determined to be only slightly Earth-directed, giving us a potential
glancing blow late in the period on day 2 (24 Apr).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


SOOOOOOO according to their reports, anytime from the 23rd to 25th is when we should expect the CH winds
Spaceweather.con still says April 26-27 for the CH winds to arrive
looks like they cant really decided on a date haha

We were expecting a possible small glancing blow today from the CME that occured on April 18th. may be the culperate for the oddness we are seeing on ACE starting around the 05:00 mark


They are now saying we may see a slight glancing blow from the CME that occured on April 21 at 20:36 UTC
and we should expect the CME to glance Earth around late on April 24th

Edit: i wil be adding this to the 2nd post area on the very 1st page of this thread, so we can easily look back on it to see whats expected and when

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 04/22/2013 10:59 PM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37763042
United States
04/22/2013 11:08 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did anyone see an M-flare today? Here's a solarsoft close-up movie of it:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1726 has completely morphed in the past 24 hrs. The double-lobed appearance is gone and and it's size has mushroomed again. Compare this composite with the one I posted on the previous page yesterday:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1726-
:1726_HMIIC:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Sunspot AR1726 has developed a 'delta class' magnetic field capable of producing major eruptions. This has prompted NOAA forecasters to up the odds of M-class flares to 40% and X-class flares to 15% within the next 24 hours. Because 1726 is Earth-facing on the solar disk, any eruptions today would likely be Earth-directed.


There is an a 15 pct chance of a s1 solar radiation storm over the next 3 days, and the Radio blackout forcast is as follows...

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2013

Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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04/22/2013 11:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
the ACE 24hr low energy proton plot sure does look wacky
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceplot422

and so does the ACE 24hr electron plot
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

aceEplot422

this started and ended at the same time on both plots
Start 05:00 - End 16:00

i still have not sat and spent time looking for a reported reason for the wacky looking plots

here is the link to all the plots
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thats a new one.. Hmm

Quick recovery; have to wonder what it was? With no explanations from NOAA or NASA of a malfunction in equipment then we are left to figure out the natural cause.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37763042


There was an event happening , I could feel it all day, it wasn't waves but particles and with the noticed charts showing it , I don't believe it was a glitch either. It coincided with the flatline after the M from this morning and there was a backside event developing because I checked, couldn't figure the proton melt.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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04/22/2013 11:25 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AND another GRB!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38628221


Quite possibly.

And how those particles interact with, energize, our star has never been published, to my knowledge. Cycles within cycles, and I guarantee you that as well as the suns particles interact with our magnetosphere, higher particles from other solar bursts interact with our suns helioshieth.

round and around we go...every where you look, light,lack there of, gravity, and magnetism.
shadasonic

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04/22/2013 11:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AND another GRB!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38628221


Quite possibly.

And how those particles interact with, energize, our star has never been published, to my knowledge. Cycles within cycles, and I guarantee you that as well as the suns particles interact with our magnetosphere, higher particles from other solar bursts interact with our suns helioshieth.

round and around we go...every where you look, light,lack there of, gravity, and magnetism.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37763042


oort cloud streakers can carry awallop of electromagnetism also, theres alot of cosmic intermingling these days.
:vortxth:

Nice post AC, you remind me of someone?Peace

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 04/22/2013 11:39 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Spittin'Cesium

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04/23/2013 12:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You guys catch the Prominence CME from the South-East preceded by bits'a'filament tearing away from the South-West [link to halpha.nso.edu] ?

Nice.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2013 12:25 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AND another GRB!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38628221


Quite possibly.

And how those particles interact with, energize, our star has never been published, to my knowledge. Cycles within cycles, and I guarantee you that as well as the suns particles interact with our magnetosphere, higher particles from other solar bursts interact with our suns helioshieth.

round and around we go...every where you look, light,lack there of, gravity, and magnetism.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37763042


oort cloud streakers can carry awallop of electromagnetism also, theres alot of cosmic intermingling these days.
:vortxth:

Nice post AC, you remind me of someone?Peace
 Quoting: shadasonic


Like minds remain attached I guess.

:)
Spittin'Cesium

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04/23/2013 12:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vurtde?

Can anyone else see the perfect Circle of faint Filament just to the West of S2370(Mid disk,just below the equatorial region)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] ?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
curi0sis*SolSis

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04/23/2013 12:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vurtde?

Can anyone else see the perfect Circle of faint Filament just to the West of S2370(Mid disk,just below the equatorial region)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I sure do!?!
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 28232082
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04/23/2013 12:58 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out these amazing charts i just found

highest Flare per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Sunspot number per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

highest Electron count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High proton count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High solar wind per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

IMF per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 04/23/2013 01:02 AM
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 38007717
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04/23/2013 01:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AND another GRB!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 38628221


Quite possibly.

And how those particles interact with, energize, our star has never been published, to my knowledge. Cycles within cycles, and I guarantee you that as well as the suns particles interact with our magnetosphere, higher particles from other solar bursts interact with our suns helioshieth.

round and around we go...every where you look, light,lack there of, gravity, and magnetism.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37763042


You're quoting something out'ta my context.
Please don't include my posts into your personal understanding & reasonings in life.
I'm very familiar with peoples concepts & theories on things in the Universe.
This one isn't yours to express, nor was it Natural, the way you know things.

It was in reference to the Draco GRB. (Read the time & whom I've been playing with on GRBs from previous post)
It completed the 104.5 bond angle(with flex), with the other 2 out of Ursa Major. ( [link to grb.sonoma.edu] )
It's a trifecta tune in meaning. Yin/Yang, Water, Something I won't say.
The understanding aren't yours to see.
Expressing the highest form of power you know of.
My dad is waaht you call Badass! & BIG.

Spittin'Cesium

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United Kingdom
04/23/2013 01:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out these amazing charts i just found

highest Flare per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Sunspot number per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

highest Electron count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High proton count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High solar wind per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

IMF per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Bookmarked.

rockon
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Spittin'Cesium

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04/23/2013 01:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vurtde?

Can anyone else see the perfect Circle of faint Filament just to the West of S2370(Mid disk,just below the equatorial region)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


I sure do!?!
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


Hello SolSishf

Hope you are go0d...crazy hey?

very faint,but very Circular and very 'there'.

Hmmm?
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37763042
United States
04/23/2013 01:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Vurtde?

Can anyone else see the perfect Circle of faint Filament just to the West of S2370(Mid disk,just below the equatorial region)
[link to halpha.nso.edu] ?
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


Old AR1705...


[link to www.solen.info]

note date of map from last month.

I take it that u also noticed the filament from the south central pole region of the disk that was deflected in an obvious direction in the H Alpha vid?
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2013 01:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
And (37763042) I apologize if it came off 'Bitchy' just agitated.
Have a good day!
hf

Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37763042
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04/23/2013 02:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out these amazing charts i just found

highest Flare per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Sunspot number per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

highest Electron count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High proton count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High solar wind per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

IMF per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for the links.

They are not giving up much, but some is better then nothing.

They still have this desktop link as well.

[link to swc.nict.go.jp]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 37763042
United States
04/23/2013 02:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
check out these amazing charts i just found

highest Flare per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

Sunspot number per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

highest Electron count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High proton count per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

High solar wind per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]

IMF per day
[link to www2.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Thanks for the links.

They are not giving up much, but some is better then nothing.

They still have this desktop link as well.

[link to swc.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37763042


P.S..Great find NiN..;) I love the way they did these. I can already see corelations within the solar rotations, esp the IMF, which should be...I guess.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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04/23/2013 02:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



Well looks like she was a dud. I hope this becomes a monster on its next rotation and it pops off a Carrington event!!!
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2013 05:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Expected Events:
*April 23rd, by mid day Coronal hole winds are expected to arrive bringing upon unsettler geomagnetic conditions. This is expected to continue through at least the next 3 days (April 24th - April 26th)
*April 24th, by late in the day we have a possible glancing blow from the CME that occured April 21st @ 20:36

---------------------------------------------------

a geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for April 25th
this is due to the 2 large Coronal Holes that are now Earth facing. The winds from these holes should arrive on around the 25th
[link to www.solen.info]


Issue Time: 2013 Apr 22 2346 UTC
WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Apr 23: None (Below G1) Apr 24: None (Below G1) Apr 25: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

EARLIER TODAY:
*Geomagnetic Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (22 Apr) with the unsettled periods mid to late in the UTC day due to a possible glancing blow from the 18 Apr CME. By mid day on day 2 (23 Apr), a recurrent CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective increasing activity to unsettled to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods. CH HSS activity is expected to continue to influence the geomagnetic field through the end of the forecast period (24 Apr).

UPDATE:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days 1 and 2 (23 Apr, 24 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day 3
(25 Apr)
due to the effects of the recurrent CH HSS




EARLIER TODAY:
A CME was observed in C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC. A comparison with SDO/AIA 193 imagery shows darkening around Region 1723 at 21/2008 UTC associated with a C2/Sf flare at 21/2015 UTC. Analysis is pending on the geoeffectiveness of this event

UPDATE:
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2013 Apr 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 1726 (N13W35,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was responsible for multiple C-flares early in the
period, as well as an impulsive M1 flare at 22/1029 UTC. This region
maintained its magnetic complexity as consolidation occurred in both the
leader and trailer spots, moderate mixing of polarities occurred in the
trailer spots, and area more than doubled to approximately 550
millionths. Region 1726 remains the area of interest for significant
flare production. Regions 1723 (S19W70, Cso/beta) and 1727 (N25E18,
Dao/beta) were stable throughout the period. The coronal mass ejection
(CME) observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the west limb at 21/2036 UTC was
determined to be only slightly Earth-directed, giving us a potential
glancing blow late in the period on day 2 (24 Apr).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


SOOOOOOO according to their reports, anytime from the 23rd to 25th is when we should expect the CH winds
Spaceweather.con still says April 26-27 for the CH winds to arrive
looks like they cant really decided on a date haha

We were expecting a possible small glancing blow today from the CME that occured on April 18th. may be the culperate for the oddness we are seeing on ACE starting around the 05:00 mark


They are now saying we may see a slight glancing blow from the CME that occured on April 21 at 20:36 UTC
and we should expect the CME to glance Earth around late on April 24th

Edit: i wil be adding this to the 2nd post area on the very 1st page of this thread, so we can easily look back on it to see whats expected and when
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hi, NINz, couldn't get back on last night (server trouble at GLP again) so thanks for the updates. AR1726 has changed magnetically to a more conventional-looking AR; I think that's why it has calmed down somewhat. This region is big and could produce a large flare at any time though.

AR1726 Magnetogram-
:4/22-1726mag:

Here's the CME NOAA referred to:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

And another nice one far-side:

[link to spaceweather.gmu.edu]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 113 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Apr 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1723 S19W70 002 0030 Cso 07 03 Beta
1726 N13W35 325 0550 Ekc 13 42 Beta-Gamma-Delta

Be well. See y'all later on.
1727 N25E18 272 0070 Dao 08 08 Beta
shenue

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04/23/2013 08:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone. I hope you all are well today!

yummmm breakfast
:CoffeeCereal:
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
shadasonic

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04/23/2013 08:59 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone. I hope you all are well today!

yummmm breakfast
:CoffeeCereal:
 Quoting: shenue


kerm coff


Good morning shen!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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