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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Kael

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04/23/2013 04:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
High chance(59%) for M/X flare. Go go 1726!!
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
Luisport

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04/23/2013 04:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hf Thank's! When i saw it in a portuguese site i just thought my sun friends will love it!tounge
Anonymous Coward
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04/23/2013 04:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
High chance(59%) for M/X flare. Go go 1726!!
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: Kael


[link to en.wikipedia.org]
madajs.

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04/23/2013 05:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Update: Bz currently down to -10 nT [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

popcorn

Last Edited by madajs. on 04/23/2013 05:44 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Da fuq

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04/23/2013 05:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs.


I hope the CHS comes sooner than later, those wind speeds are depressing.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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04/23/2013 05:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Update: Bz currently down to -10 nT [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


TooDamnHigh
Kael

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04/23/2013 05:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Update: Bz currently down to -10 nT [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


TooDamnHigh
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


And the rent also... lmao
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
joinca

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04/23/2013 08:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
2013/04/23 23:14:42
Magnitude 6.4 - NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
[link to earthquake.usgs.gov]
hiding
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2013 08:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The earlier C3 flare was attributed to AR1722 on the SW limb.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Solarsoft close-up of flare w/CME:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

This flare did produce a CME also.

STERO A cor 2 image:
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

SOHO C2 image:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

There's also signs that Earth is receiving a glancing blow from the CME of 4/21. The SOHO Solar wind monitor shows an increase in density and velocity:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

Lots of stacatto density spikes also on ACE SWEPAM plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/23/2013 08:21 PM
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2013 08:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1726 continues to grow....and new regions have been numbered.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 114 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Apr 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Apr
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1723 S20W84 001 0040 Cso 05 04 Beta
1726 N13W49 326 0580 Eki 15 34 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1727 N25E03 274 0040 Cao 05 03 Beta
1728 N19E62 214 0040 Cso 02 02 Beta
1729 S14W08 285 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta


AR1726...growing larger-
:4/23-1726:

NOAA Discussion-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Regions 1726 (N13W49) and 1723 (S20W84) were
again the most active regions during the period. Region 1726 regained
its beta-gamma-delta magnetic complexity, showing decent mixing as well
as some umbral elongation in the trailer spot.
This region did indicate
some minor decay in the intermediate spots. However, the largest flare
of the period, a C8/Sf at 23/1414 UTC, appeared to originate from the
trailer spots of Region 1726
. New Regions 1728 (N19E62, Cso/beta) and
1729 (S14W08, Bxo/beta) were numbered during the period with both spot
groups showing minor development. Region 1727 (N25E03, Cao/beta) showed
signs of decay and was unremarkable throughout the period. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, remained fairly steady
throughout most of the period. Peak speeds were near 300 km/s, Bt
indicated a slight enhancement to near 10nT, and the maximum southward
component of Bz was less than -5 nT. Phi angle was predominately at a
positive (away) orientation. Near the end of the period however, a solar
sector boundary crossing occurred as a transition from a positive (away)
Phi angle to a negative (towards) orientation was observed. Solar wind
speeds increased to approximately 330 km/s, and the Bz decreased to a -8
nT. These conditions are believed to be associated with the onset of
the corotating interaction region (CIR) that is expected ahead of the CH
HSS.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Hmmm....no mention of the density spikes seen by ACE:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
shadasonic

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04/23/2013 09:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1726 continues to grow....and new regions have been numbered.




 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Its gotta blow soon!bammy
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2013 09:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The amazing growth of AR1726-From April 20-23!
:4/20-1726:
:1726bigger:
:4/21-1726:
:1726_HMIIC:
:4/23-1726:
Hugh M Eye

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04/23/2013 09:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Geomagnetic turbulence increasing now.

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer -K=3.7 @ 35.9 nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No new Space Weather Alerts issued at this time (soon though, LOL)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 04/23/2013 09:10 PM
shadasonic

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04/23/2013 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Geomagnetic turbulence increasing now.

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer -K=3.7 @ 35.9 nT:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

No new Space Weather Alerts issued at this time (soon though, LOL)

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I noticed the electron flux with our last event didn't fluctuate at all and we hit Kp 6 I believe and had the large proton display. Usually when we have the proton influx electrons are null and void and theres a big mixing flux as the ionosphere is scrubbed. Its really cool to see the diverse polarity of these varying fields alter, or not affect at all, the particle counts. I'm thinking this unusual electron reaction is because of the proximity of the actual flip and the dipole counts are erratic?
You rarely see a huge TEC with a high electron register as we did last time. This cycle maybe somewhat boring , but there are times when it is very interesting. Feel free to help me out if I'm off on this my friend!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
einsteinsfly

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04/23/2013 09:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Extreme

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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04/23/2013 10:34 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: einsteinsfly


Nice and charged
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just getting in bed but had to run here and post about the density being picked up at ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
it is getting in the 100s more than once!
its at 89.1 right now
if the Bz tilts south, this will cause a big geomagnetic storm

also, at the time of this edit, ACE has not updated for 19min

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 04/24/2013 12:22 AM
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:30 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just getting in bed but had to run here and post about the density being picked up at ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
it is getting in the 100s more than once!
its at 89.1 right now
if the Bz tilts south, this will cause a big geomagnetic storm

also, at the time of this edit, ACE has not updated for 19min
 Quoting: NiNzrez


looking at the monitors, i find it hard to believe this high of a proton count is only from the Coronal hole winds we were expecting today
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 24 0204 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2013 Apr 24 0202 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2013 12:43 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Update: Bz currently down to -10 nT [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


:TooDamnHigh:
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


:lol1:
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2013 12:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 24 0204 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2013 Apr 24 0202 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Wait is this hitting us right now? Because I live in Michigan and I have a Killer head ache right now.
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Issue Time: 2013 Apr 24 0204 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2013 Apr 24 0202 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Wait is this hitting us right now? Because I live in Michigan and I have a Killer head ache right now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1551413


yup hitting right now
im in MI too
howdy neighbor :)
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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04/24/2013 12:51 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to solarham.net]
Anonymous Coward
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04/24/2013 12:52 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hf SE area myself, Thanks for the update, Explains why I was so energetic today. Also now why I am suffering a decent headache.
NiNzrez (OP)

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
There's some action going on

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Bt/density/temps are up, could either be the CME or CH HSS talked about in the forecast discussion [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Update: Bz currently down to -10 nT [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


the only CME we were possibly expecting a glancing blow from was forecasted to hit later in the day of the 24th
here is the updated forecast post
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
if anyone seen any other CME that may have been headed our way, can you please remind us :)

because i mean yeah, there is 2 coronal holes facing us and yeah they are big, but this proton density is higher than we have seen ANY protons for ANY of the CMEs for all of SC24
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hf SE area myself, Thanks for the update, Explains why I was so energetic today. Also now why I am suffering a decent headache.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1551413


same here, Flint
(no bad jokes please haha)
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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04/24/2013 12:55 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
proton level
141.5
156.9
156.9
137.4
all 1 min apart
CRAZYY
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

i guess this will be a REALLY good test to the "Coronal holes cause earthquakes" theory
cause if that IS the case, then we should be seeing a monster quake from these CH's

jgfreak

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 04/24/2013 12:59 AM
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
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04/24/2013 01:00 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: RSOE EDIS: Lyrid Meteorite Crashed into Wolcott, Connecticut Man's Home

meteor doom?
shadasonic

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04/24/2013 07:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Bz is - 15, particles coming right on in.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.b.weather.com]

Space Station
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Luke 18:8I tell you that he will avenge them speedily. Nevertheless when the Son of man cometh, shall he find faith on the earth?


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