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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 02:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/03/2013 02:20 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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05/03/2013 02:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


dilberto
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Official SunTard"

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05/03/2013 02:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


OldGrannyLady
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now the coronagraphs aren't updating at STEREO & SOHO and Solarsoft has gone silent for some bizarre reason. It looks like a good time to tear myself away from the computer and go out for some healthy x-rays, LOL. No noticeable rise in protons yet so I think we're safe from any radiation storms from this.

East Limb CME-
:5/3-east limb cme:

smiley folks on strike?

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/03/2013 03:32 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Luisport

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05/03/2013 03:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Beautiful CME leaving the Sun now, probably associated with the big solar flare earlier: [link to i.imgur.com]
whiteangel

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05/03/2013 04:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I was on a long distant call when this was all happening - yes we talked forever - it is now time of an X 1-10 flare!!!
ana ana
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Official SunTard"

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05/03/2013 04:03 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Beautiful CME leaving the Sun now, probably associated with the big solar flare earlier: [link to i.imgur.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks!
Luisport

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05/03/2013 04:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Beautiful CME leaving the Sun now, probably associated with the big solar flare earlier: [link to i.imgur.com]
 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks!
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


hf
Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2013 04:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW!! I missed the action. Thanks for all the updates guys !!

Here's a Helioviewer movie.



[link to helioviewer.org]
Isis One

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05/03/2013 04:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Which Planet is that?
 Quoting: Da fuq


Dat's no planet, dat's the red giant ANTARES in Scorpius. Antares is 65,000 times more luminous than the sun! Here, take a look at its beauty:

[link to astropixels.com]

Nearby is the M4 globular cluster:

[link to www.universetoday.com]

How did I know this? I used the convenient SECCHI Star-mapping tool for the STEREO mission. It can be found here:

[link to secchi.nrl.navy.mil]

spock
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow! lotta cool info and apps in those links, that XEphem looks phenom. Wonder if anyone at glp dabbles in it and could post those dabblings?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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05/03/2013 05:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Big Bear Observatory movie of M1.3 from AR1731 again.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

The region is Earth-facing so be alert for CMEs headed our way.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


it's preparing to rise more i think...
 Quoting: Luisport


Good Call Luis!!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 05:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft finally has their close-up SDO movies ready for the twin M-flares.

Close-up movie of the M1.3 from 1731 (no CME visible from this one):

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The second M5.7 from the limb produces a large CME which is stunning in this close-up movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Isis One

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05/03/2013 05:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft finally has their close-up SDO movies ready for the twin M-flares.

Close-up movie of the M1.3 from 1731 (no CME visible from this one):

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The second M5.7 from the limb produces a large CME which is stunning in this close-up movie:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Gorgeous shots, thanks for posting Hughhf
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Fedex12

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05/03/2013 06:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

Fedex
NiNzrez (OP)

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05/03/2013 06:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


this would be issued if there was mass ejected from the sun BEFORE a flare event
or mass (cme) ejected that is not associated with a flare at all

I just got in! been outside taking advantage of this nice weather we have had here (79 today and all sun!) to get all my spring yard work done
now I know where all my energy today came from!
YaY for some bigger flare activity
cheer
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Official SunTard"

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05/03/2013 07:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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05/03/2013 07:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


this would be issued if there was mass ejected from the sun BEFORE a flare event
or mass (cme) ejected that is not associated with a flare at all

I just got in! been outside taking advantage of this nice weather we have had here (79 today and all sun!) to get all my spring yard work done
now I know where all my energy today came from!
YaY for some bigger flare activity
cheer
 Quoting: NiNzrez


rockon

Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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05/03/2013 07:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Wondered when they were going to post that, thanks Geo!
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

User ID: 34416224
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05/03/2013 07:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


this would be issued if there was mass ejected from the sun BEFORE a flare event
or mass (cme) ejected that is not associated with a flare at all

I just got in! been outside taking advantage of this nice weather we have had here (79 today and all sun!) to get all my spring yard work done
now I know where all my energy today came from!
YaY for some bigger flare activity
cheer
 Quoting: NiNzrez


White Angel and I were talking about the energy boost we had today, still feel good, its nice.
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 08:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA attributes the original Type iv radio alert to a C1 flare from 1734 (no wonder I missed it,haha). Also, we have 3 new numbered regions 1737, 1738, and (drum roll please) 1739; the latter being the source of the M5. NOAA explains.....

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was high. The period began at low levels with a Type IV
radio sweep associated with a C1/Sf flare observed at 03/1500 from
Region 1734 (S19E10, Eko/beta-gamma). Activity increased to moderate to
high levels later when Region 1731 (N10W43, Eac/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an M1/2n flare at 03/1655 UTC, followed immediately by an M5/Sf
flare at 03/1732 UTC from New Region 1739 (N13E75, Dac/beta). The larger
flare was associated with a CME off the east limb and Type II (est.
speed 1297 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. The CME does not appear to be
Earth-directed although further analysis will be completed as new
imagery becomes available. Region 1731 is showing signs of decay but
maintained a magnetic delta configuration, thus making it a good
candidate for further M-class activity. Region 1739 appears to be fairly
complex magnetically but it is difficult to ascertain its true structure
due to its location so near the east limb.
New Regions 1737 (N19E35,
Axx/alpha) and 1738 (N16E63, Hsx/alpha) were also numbered during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class
flares for the next there days (04-06 May), mainly from Regions 1731 and
1739.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1739-
:5/3-new_HMIC:

CME from M5 Flare (1739)-

:5/3-c2 cme:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 124 Issued at 0030Z on 04 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1728 N19W72 218 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1730 S16W81 226 0100 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1731 N10W43 187 0150 Eac 15 31 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1732 S17W15 161 0160 Dso 08 07 Beta
1734 S19E10 136 0550 Eko 12 15 Beta-Gamma
1737 N19E35 115 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
1738 N16E63 087 0030 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1739 N13E75 075 0150 Dac 10 13 Beta

AR1734 is nearing mid-disk now. If a C1 flare caused a Type IV Radio event, imagine what a full-blown X-flare would be like. I'm cautiously watching this particular region now that it's been upgraded to Beta-Gamma.

AR1734-
:5/3-1734:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1734 Magnetogram-
:5/3-1734mag:

Check out the magnetic fields on the PFSS magnetogram:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The central coronal hole which sits right on the equator will give Earth a good blast of high speed solar wind in few days. Any Earth-directed CMEs will only add more muscle to the punch in the way of CIRs (co-rotating interaction regions) and such.

SDO/AIA Composite image:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1734 close-up composite-
:1734compo:
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
NiNzrez (OP)

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05/03/2013 10:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA attributes the original Type iv radio alert to a C1 flare from 1734 (no wonder I missed it,haha). Also, we have 3 new numbered regions 1737, 1738, and (drum roll please) 1739; the latter being the source of the M5. NOAA explains.....

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was high. The period began at low levels with a Type IV
radio sweep associated with a C1/Sf flare observed at 03/1500 from
Region 1734 (S19E10, Eko/beta-gamma). Activity increased to moderate to
high levels later when Region 1731 (N10W43, Eac/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an M1/2n flare at 03/1655 UTC, followed immediately by an M5/Sf
flare at 03/1732 UTC from New Region 1739 (N13E75, Dac/beta). The larger
flare was associated with a CME off the east limb and Type II (est.
speed 1297 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. The CME does not appear to be
Earth-directed although further analysis will be completed as new
imagery becomes available. Region 1731 is showing signs of decay but
maintained a magnetic delta configuration, thus making it a good
candidate for further M-class activity. Region 1739 appears to be fairly
complex magnetically but it is difficult to ascertain its true structure
due to its location so near the east limb.
New Regions 1737 (N19E35,
Axx/alpha) and 1738 (N16E63, Hsx/alpha) were also numbered during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class
flares for the next there days (04-06 May), mainly from Regions 1731 and
1739.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1739-
:5/3-new_HMIC:

CME from M5 Flare (1739)-

:5/3-c2 cme:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 124 Issued at 0030Z on 04 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1728 N19W72 218 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1730 S16W81 226 0100 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1731 N10W43 187 0150 Eac 15 31 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1732 S17W15 161 0160 Dso 08 07 Beta
1734 S19E10 136 0550 Eko 12 15 Beta-Gamma
1737 N19E35 115 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
1738 N16E63 087 0030 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1739 N13E75 075 0150 Dac 10 13 Beta

AR1734 is nearing mid-disk now. If a C1 flare caused a Type IV Radio event, imagine what a full-blown X-flare would be like. I'm cautiously watching this particular region now that it's been upgraded to Beta-Gamma.

AR1734-
:5/3-1734:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


great info posts as usual Hugh :)
I will add this to your info


*Event % probabilities:
May 04 - May 06
55% Chance for M Flares
10% Chance for X Flares
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
shenue

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05/03/2013 10:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone. It's been an exciting day!

smiley high5
Sometimes 'the having' is not as sweet as 'the wanting'. So be careful what you wish for, you just might get it.
Anonymous Coward
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05/03/2013 10:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
How come NOAA lists the Type IV Radio Alert at 15:16z? That's almost 90 minutes before the first M-flare. Are they now employing psychics or did we miss a filament eruption or something. Most likely those stoners can't read a clock right when they're high.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 411
Issue Time: 2013 May 03 1607 UTC

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 May 03 1516 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
wtf
pdance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


There IS a delay on the info disseminated to the general public from these satellites. Someone jumped the gun at Goddard. I'll find out in the morning.ohyeah
curi0sis*SolSis

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05/03/2013 11:25 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Luisreport'ing time!

X-rays rising;

low C for now - looks like it's peeking there already:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
Hugh M Eye

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05/03/2013 11:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA attributes the original Type iv radio alert to a C1 flare from 1734 (no wonder I missed it,haha). Also, we have 3 new numbered regions 1737, 1738, and (drum roll please) 1739; the latter being the source of the M5. NOAA explains.....

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was high. The period began at low levels with a Type IV
radio sweep associated with a C1/Sf flare observed at 03/1500 from
Region 1734 (S19E10, Eko/beta-gamma). Activity increased to moderate to
high levels later when Region 1731 (N10W43, Eac/beta-gamma-delta)
produced an M1/2n flare at 03/1655 UTC, followed immediately by an M5/Sf
flare at 03/1732 UTC from New Region 1739 (N13E75, Dac/beta). The larger
flare was associated with a CME off the east limb and Type II (est.
speed 1297 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. The CME does not appear to be
Earth-directed although further analysis will be completed as new
imagery becomes available. Region 1731 is showing signs of decay but
maintained a magnetic delta configuration, thus making it a good
candidate for further M-class activity. Region 1739 appears to be fairly
complex magnetically but it is difficult to ascertain its true structure
due to its location so near the east limb.
New Regions 1737 (N19E35,
Axx/alpha) and 1738 (N16E63, Hsx/alpha) were also numbered during the
period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for X-class
flares for the next there days (04-06 May), mainly from Regions 1731 and
1739.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1739-
:5/3-new_HMIC:

CME from M5 Flare (1739)-

:5/3-c2 cme:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 124 Issued at 0030Z on 04 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1728 N19W72 218 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1730 S16W81 226 0100 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1731 N10W43 187 0150 Eac 15 31 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1732 S17W15 161 0160 Dso 08 07 Beta
1734 S19E10 136 0550 Eko 12 15 Beta-Gamma
1737 N19E35 115 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
1738 N16E63 087 0030 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1739 N13E75 075 0150 Dac 10 13 Beta

AR1734 is nearing mid-disk now. If a C1 flare caused a Type IV Radio event, imagine what a full-blown X-flare would be like. I'm cautiously watching this particular region now that it's been upgraded to Beta-Gamma.

AR1734-
:5/3-1734:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


great info posts as usual Hugh :)
I will add this to your info


*Event % probabilities:
May 04 - May 06
55% Chance for M Flares
10% Chance for X Flares
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Hiya, NINz! smile_kiss Yes I was just looking at that, although I shy away from predictions & probabilities most of the time. Like the TV weatherman, NOAA always raises the probability factor AFTER a large event catches them with their pants down; and after they raise expectations nothing happens. Nonetheless, I'm hoping that 1734 gets cookin' southern-style....it's certainly large enough to produce an x-flare.

I was playing around with the Soteria Flare Predictor again:

[link to sidc.oma.be]

I also found this CME speed calculator using the Type II Radio Bursts:

[link to www.ips.gov.au]

By the way, we just had a filament eruption in the north-central just prior to the C2.4 from 1734. H-alpha movie here:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
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Isis One

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05/04/2013 12:45 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did 1734 have another flare at about 3:30 UTC?

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
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curi0sis*SolSis

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05/04/2013 01:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did 1734 have another flare at about 3:30 UTC?

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Isis One


Hey Isis,
I posted the below quote at 3:25 UTC,

Luisreport'ing time!

X-rays rising;

low C for now - looks like it's peeking there already:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


and Hugh mentionned some filament eruption right after that, in his 3:40 UTC post... not sure if this is really related to your question, still newby'ing on lots of this ;)

Night'night all

starrynight
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
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Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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05/04/2013 01:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did 1734 have another flare at about 3:30 UTC?

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Isis One


Hey Isis,
I posted the below quote at 3:25 UTC,

Luisreport'ing time!

X-rays rising;

low C for now - looks like it's peeking there already:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


and Hugh mentionned some filament eruption right after that, in his 3:40 UTC post... not sure if this is really related to your question, still newby'ing on lots of this ;)

Night'night all

starrynight
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


Hi, yes, I think it is the flare I saw on Hugh's halpha link. He mentioned the filament eruption, which I saw, but then when I watched it again and looked lower down the sun to 1734, it looked like it was lighting up pretty good. So I think I caught a flare!!!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
whiteangel

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05/04/2013 03:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Did anyone see this huge spike again:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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