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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
zacksavage
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05/04/2013 09:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)


+

62%-57% !!
for Sunspot 1734 located in the lower center
Aimed directly at us
[link to spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk]
 Quoting: NiNzrez



=

Let's get this party started!!!

Hey Hugh, Spittin and All Sun Crew affectionados,...

Nobody does it better.

Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
joinca

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05/05/2013 12:05 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taken a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding

Last Edited by joinca on 05/05/2013 12:39 AM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
curi0sis*SolSis

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05/05/2013 12:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks joincahf

do you or anyone know what it means, how it affects things? I'm still new on this electron flux notion.

puzzled
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
shenue

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05/05/2013 12:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good night everyone.

:GetInBedSmilie:
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Hugh M Eye

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05/05/2013 12:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Nice catch, that looks pretty strong there. We have a negative Bz now but I don't see any big increases in solar wind speed or density yet on ACE.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer still in the quiet zone:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA says 3 coronal hole streams coming....

".Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to increase on day one (05 May) due the
anticipated arrival of a weak, positive polarity CH HSS and remain
elevated on days two and three (06-07 May) as this and two additional
coronal holes move into a favorable position one after the other.
"
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

They don't even mention the possible glancing blow from the northward CME expected by this time tomorrow.
shadasonic

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05/05/2013 12:36 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Right on cue joinca, nice catch. 1739 is going to be bag of surprises.

I honestly don't believe 1734 being south of the equator is going to do much. Everything northern hemisphere related has mingled magnetics. You look south it is still waiting for northern polarity to mix and become volatile. Theres nothing there to viably cause a big energetic event. Everything of notice will be from the north at least until we have mingled magnetics throughout! Just my 2 cents!
Theres compromise in the north, the south still has the same nonelectromagnetic influence
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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05/05/2013 12:37 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca

Thanks joincahf

do you or anyone know what it means, how it affects things? I'm still new on this electron flux notion.
puzzled
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis

It looks as if it came from a small event that happened on the 2nd:
[link to www.solarham.net]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic

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05/05/2013 12:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Nice catch, that looks pretty strong there. We have a negative Bz now but I don't see any big increases in solar wind speed or density yet on ACE.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer still in the quiet zone:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA says 3 coronal hole streams coming....

".Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to increase on day one (05 May) due the
anticipated arrival of a weak, positive polarity CH HSS and remain
elevated on days two and three (06-07 May) as this and two additional
coronal holes move into a favorable position one after the other.
"
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

They don't even mention the possible glancing blow from the northward CME expected by this time tomorrow.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


1739 and CH are the mixers right now. 1734 if it had a charge would be awesome, its not going to have the magnetics to get there, everything of value will come from the north , for a little while until the north generates energy and southward movement!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/05/2013 12:45 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks joincahf

do you or anyone know what it means, how it affects things? I'm still new on this electron flux notion.

puzzled
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


Electrons flux out wnenever theres a proton elevation .It depends on the density of the nucleii and the type of event. We've got flares, CHs, and mild filament events going on. These all have their own polarity and particle make up, so its nothing to worry about, but its hard to assimilate until all readings are in. Watch your Bz and your heavy protons for anything BIG, these are your real early warning tools.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
curi0sis*SolSis

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05/05/2013 12:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mucho
thank
shadasonic: )

Taking notes!

hf
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 37348904
United States
05/05/2013 12:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks joincahf

do you or anyone know what it means, how it affects things? I'm still new on this electron flux notion.

puzzled
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


Howdy, curi0us hi that's a good question. When the electron levels detected by the GOES satellites are very high NOAA issues an alert (as they have for the past two days). This alerts satellite operators of increased risk to space assets due to electrical charging anomalies or malfunctions.

On the other hand, when the flux dips suddenly (as it is now), it usually signifies a change in the magnetosphere and possibly unsettled space weather or geomagnetic storm onset. This could be due to a change in the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) polarity, a coronal hole wind stream, an incoming CME, or maybe one of those mysterious "portals" opening. In any event, it usually gets our attention, haha.

Although I can't find any specific links, here's a good one for a jumping off point:

[link to www.phy6.org]
shadasonic

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United States
05/05/2013 01:08 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES electron flux plot has taked a dive!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to imageshack.us]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Thanks joincahf

do you or anyone know what it means, how it affects things? I'm still new on this electron flux notion.

puzzled
 Quoting: curi0sis*SolSis


Electrons flux out wnenever theres a proton elevation .It depends on the density of the nucleii and the type of event. We've got flares, CHs, and mild filament events going on. These all have their own polarity and particle make up, so its nothing to worry about, but its hard to assimilate until all readings are in. Watch your Bz and your heavy protons for anything BIG, these are your real early warning tools.
 Quoting: shadasonic


You also must realize that convectiv currents stimulate a big majority of solar events. If you have a northern hemisphere with fluctuation and mingling its going to be a predeterminant region for convection. The southern region isn't going to use these currents because they aren't readily flowing . The dipole has weakened and the northern region is 'aflux'. You get big mean polar spots that do nothing because their magnetics are lazy and can't fire, no convection! Of course all of this is interacting with a trillion mini catalysts!

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 05/05/2013 01:24 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/05/2013 01:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At the same time as the C8 flare from 1739 there was an energetic eruption from 1730 on the SW limb.

SW Limb Eruption-
:5/5-SWflare:

NOAA Solar Activity Discussion-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1739 (N13E57, Dac/beta-gamma) produced
the largest event of the period with a C5/Sf flare at 04/1236 UTC.
Region 1731 (N10W56, Eai/beta-gamma) continued to produce low level
C-class flares but showed decay and lost its magnetic delta
configuration. Region 1734 (S17E04, Eki/beta-gamma) continued to grow
and also produced low-level C-class flares
. All other regions on the
disk remained relatively quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1734 is a Thing of Beauty (now directly Earth-facing)-
:5/5-1734comp:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 125 Issued at 0030Z on 05 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 04 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 04/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1728 N20W85 218 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta
1730 S16W93 226 0080 Hax 02 01 Alpha
1731 N10W56 187 0090 Eai 12 20 Beta-Gamma
1732 S17W22 153 0150 Dso 06 12 Beta
1734 S17E04 127 0590 Eki 11 22 Beta-Gamma
1737 N16E21 110 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1738 N15E47 084 0010 Cso 02 02 Beta
1739 N13E57 074 0110 Dac 06 05 Beta-Gamma
1740 S20E64 067 0030 Hsx 01 01 Alpha


Latest HMI Color Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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05/05/2013 01:46 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunSUN POWER!sun

The sun's magnificent radiation travelled 93 million miles to California, bounced off of a shiny dog bowl and lit someone's house on fire yesterday.

Headline seen on Drudge Report-

Shiny Dog Bowl Blamed in Santa Rosa Fire:

[link to sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com]

The Department of Homeland Security is now considering a ban on shiny dog bowls before al Queda puppies get their paws on them, LOL.

arnoldSolarDoom!
shadasonic

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05/05/2013 01:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunSUN POWER!sun

The sun's magnificent radiation travelled 93 million miles to California, bounced off of a shiny dog bowl and lit someone's house on fire yesterday.

Headline seen on Drudge Report-

Shiny Dog Bowl Blamed in Santa Rosa Fire:

[link to sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com]

The Department of Homeland Security is now considering a ban on shiny dog bowls before al Queda puppies get their paws on them, LOL.

arnoldSolarDoom!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


baby huey

Must also be how I lost my wallet! Ban wallets. Hugh you are becoming quite funny. You are a great teacher!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
curi0sis*SolSis

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05/05/2013 02:44 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
quoting Hugh:
------

Howdy, curi0us hi that's a good question. When the electron levels detected by the GOES satellites are very high NOAA issues an alert (as they have for the past two days). This alerts satellite operators of increased risk to space assets due to electrical charging anomalies or malfunctions.

On the other hand, when the flux dips suddenly (as it is now), it usually signifies a change in the magnetosphere and possibly unsettled space weather or geomagnetic storm onset. This could be due to a change in the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) polarity, a coronal hole wind stream, an incoming CME, or maybe one of those mysterious "portals" opening. In any event, it usually gets our attention, haha.

Although I can't find any specific links, here's a good one for a jumping off point:

[link to www.phy6.org]

-------------


Thanks for all this, Hugh sun
I'm bookmarking the link in my 'Hugh solar links'.
BTW howdy hi to you too! ...and now you really got me wondering if I also 'know' you from another time-space-handle, lol


Thanks again shads, for what you added, on convection. Noting all this in my shads solar notes hf


My best to all sol'crew!
sun
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
Anonymous Coward
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05/05/2013 02:49 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
another C flare C8.4

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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05/05/2013 02:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Serious flare-age in progress....oooh, another C8...C8.4 from 1739 again.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/05/2013 03:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Serious flare-age in progress....oooh, another C8...C8.4 from 1739 again.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This is going to be a great week!!!

ArnoldSunDoom
joinca

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05/05/2013 11:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good discussion Dr. Keith Strong:
IS THIS SOLAR MAXIMUM? -- 5 May 2013
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Luisport

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05/05/2013 12:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 3.8 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Luisport

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05/05/2013 12:53 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is something arriving? [link to www.n3kl.org]
Luisport

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05/05/2013 01:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
This is something arriving? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


ohyeah
Anonymous Coward
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05/05/2013 01:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
spock

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Luisport

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05/05/2013 01:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M FLARE NOW!!!
Hugh M Eye

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05/05/2013 01:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here goes a big flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


siren2siren2siren2siren2
zacksavage
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05/05/2013 02:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here goes a big flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


siren2siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow Hugh,...you must be a cyborg to keep up such a pace.

woohoo



Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 05/05/2013 02:02 PM
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
whiteangel

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05/05/2013 02:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Whoa!!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
whiteangel

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05/05/2013 02:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.4

Last Edited by whiteangel on 05/05/2013 02:02 PM
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
whiteangel

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05/05/2013 02:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here goes a big flare!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


siren2siren2siren2siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow Hugh,...you must be a cyborg to keep up such a pace.

woohoo



Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


He never seems to sleep!!!
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One

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