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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
hi hon we got another X you owe me 10 bucks

...


Very slim
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Agreed. Now if we were still seeing X-flares happening, I would have more concern. Would put it at the 1% chance or less.
 Quoting: whiteangel


SOLAR ACTIVITY SURGES: A sunspot on the sun's eastern limb is crackling with powerful X-class solar flares. AR1748 announced itself during the early hours of May 13th with an X1.7-class eruption (0217 UT), quickly followed by an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT) and an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14). These are the strongest flares of the year so far, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours.
[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754


This is their prediction, not fact hon. There is always a prediction number. We see this all the time, and there was only a 5% chance when we got the first X-flare. Just because it is higher now, doesn't mean any more will happen.
 Quoting: whiteangel

Updated at: 2013 May 14 2200 UTC


0-24 hr
CLASS M
80 %
CLASS X
50 %
------------------
24-48 hr
CLASS M
80 %
CLASS X
50 %


[link to spaceweather.com]
 Quoting: Dettro


ok so who's making bets?

slaps 10 bucks on the table X flare in 12 hours...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39844379
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
2013/05/13 02:16:00 Peaked X1.7
2013/05/13 16:05:00 Peaked X2.8
2013/05/13 01:11:00 Peaked X3.2
2013/05/15 01:48:00 Peaked X1.2
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Used the peaked times instead of the start times. This is 4 X-flares in less than 48 hours.
 Quoting: whiteangel


wow..... no way!

a 4th one???


holy crap I win 10 bucks and I was just guessing there would be another one
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39844379


Good job. I remembered you made that bet.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


doesnt matter I was kinda kidding thinking it wouldn't happen... but it did ill tell you this is very very very bad news...

VERY bad news...............
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

[link to www.youtube.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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05/14/2013 11:40 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Solar or regular telescope?
Geoshill


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[link to m.youtube.com (secure)]
Isis One

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05/14/2013 11:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Uh-oh, X-Ray Flux showing a rise again, going above C5 now.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


Damn GLP effect. Yeah I was looking at my telescope and noticed it without checking the X-ray flux, but it is a small one judging by my eyes.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Where was it? Was it produced by the same sunspot which produced the triple X-flares?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


Yes it was,1748 [link to halpha.nso.edu] accompanied by a sheering away of ejecta from just beyond the North-East limb.

Edito:With all the connections between the Eastern Sunspot Regions [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] we have a fair chance of more decent flaring yet,though this comment may have neutered that possibility or,that comment on this comment may have increased the potential,lol.

sun
 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium

You're toooo funny and cute!!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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05/14/2013 11:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We just have to challenge the sun. Hey sunny, I bet you can't pop 4 X-flares in 48 hours, because you're just a pussy!tomato
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


It worked, lol
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Solar or regular telescope?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
LETS GO FOR 5 NEVER LIKED THE NUMBER 5

BUT LETS MAKE A BET FOR ANOTHER X FLARE

NEXT 24 HOURS
shadasonic

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05/14/2013 11:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

That was wiiiide!Big boy CME
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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05/14/2013 11:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Solar or regular telescope?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.

Last Edited by Bomb Cyclone on 05/14/2013 11:48 PM
Geoshill


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Isis One

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05/14/2013 11:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days

3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth


again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past

this has to be a new record..

and if another X pops?

oh crap!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754


Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others.
x-ray11/98
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Fedex12

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05/14/2013 11:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Da fuq



Fedex
EW
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05/14/2013 11:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
2013/05/13 02:16:00 Peaked X1.7
2013/05/13 16:05:00 Peaked X2.8
2013/05/13 01:11:00 Peaked X3.2
2013/05/15 01:48:00 Peaked X1.2
[link to www.lmsal.com]

Used the peaked times instead of the start times. This is 4 X-flares in less than 48 hours.
 Quoting: whiteangel


wow..... no way!

a 4th one???


holy crap I win 10 bucks and I was just guessing there would be another one
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39844379


Good job. I remembered you made that bet.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


doesnt matter I was kinda kidding thinking it wouldn't happen... but it did ill tell you this is very very very bad news...

VERY bad news...............
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39844379


probably a stupid question, but why is it "very bad news" ?

hiding
Isis One

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05/14/2013 11:49 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
If this SS pisses out like the majority of all the sunspots in the past two years then something is fucked up....how major CMEs have we seen blast right before a SS is facing earth or when it reaches the western limb.....something or somebody is influencing the sun....been watching it for too long to call it dumb luck..
 Quoting: look'n 21562154


I'm thinking barrycenters have shifted.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days

3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth


again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past

this has to be a new record..

and if another X pops?

oh crap!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754


Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others.
:x-ray11/98:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


the last one on the chart is a M flare not X is it?
shadasonic

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05/14/2013 11:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days

3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth


again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past

this has to be a new record..

and if another X pops?

oh crap!
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754


Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others.
x-ray11/98
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


You may be right, what a wild sun wake up aye Sis!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Solar or regular telescope?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


thanks!
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
chart im referring too is the image Hugh M Eye posted
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Happened in 1998 there was 3 ... now its 4 so yah the record has been broken

and what IF there is a 5th one............

oh man we are so fucked hard core
shadasonic

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05/14/2013 11:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
If this SS pisses out like the majority of all the sunspots in the past two years then something is fucked up....how major CMEs have we seen blast right before a SS is facing earth or when it reaches the western limb.....something or somebody is influencing the sun....been watching it for too long to call it dumb luck..
 Quoting: look'n 21562154


I'm thinking barrycenters have shifted.
 Quoting: Isis One



Images are representative (made by hand), not simulated.




Two bodies with the same mass orbiting a common barycenter (similar to the 90 Antiope system)


Two bodies with a difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter external to both bodies, as in the Pluto–Charon system


Two bodies with a major difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter internal to one body (similar to the Earth–Moon system)


Two bodies with an extreme difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter internal to one body (similar to the Sun–Earth system)




Two bodies with the same mass orbiting a common barycenter, external to both bodies, with eccentric elliptic orbits (a common situation for binary stars)


Sorry was tying in barycenter simulations and it wouldn't transfer the models, They were very cool.LOL

I understand your view on this Isis and it may be right, but that may mean bigger problems.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 05/14/2013 11:55 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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05/14/2013 11:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
SolarSoft info about todays flare:
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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05/14/2013 11:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


Solar or regular telescope?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours?
hf
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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05/15/2013 12:07 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


Solar or regular telescope?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours?
hf
 Quoting: Paa Tal


Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment.
Geoshill


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[link to m.youtube.com (secure)]
Irish Brute

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05/15/2013 12:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours?
hf
 Quoting: Paa Tal


Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Be mindfull..
*****
(The Cure For Most Cancers)
[link to www.youtube.com]

"At times, the experience of seeing ourselves in an unfavorable light can be painful. At other times, when we are not focused on our shortcomings, a less defended viewpoint frees up the energy that maintained the repression." Joan Bello
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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05/15/2013 12:10 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours?
hf
 Quoting: Paa Tal


Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Be mindfull..
 Quoting: Irish Brute


I could of images these past solar flares but unfortunately couldn't. I'm sad
:(
Geoshill


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[link to m.youtube.com (secure)]
joinca

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05/15/2013 12:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Great videos by Dr Keith Strong:
X FLARES 1 -- 2 -- 3: 14 May 2013
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
And this one:
BREAKING NEWS: 4th X FLARE - 15 May 2013
[link to www.youtube.com (secure)]
"The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson

We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family!
Anonymous Coward
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05/15/2013 12:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


regular, I want to follow comet ISON :)
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours?
hf
 Quoting: Paa Tal


Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Cool! Enjoy the party!
Irish Brute

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05/15/2013 12:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)


Be mindfull..


I could of images these past solar flares but unfortunately couldn't. I'm sad
:(


Womp Womp Womp...


ratdance
*****
(The Cure For Most Cancers)
[link to www.youtube.com]

"At times, the experience of seeing ourselves in an unfavorable light can be painful. At other times, when we are not focused on our shortcomings, a less defended viewpoint frees up the energy that maintained the repression." Joan Bello
Isis One

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05/15/2013 12:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
we need to look back to the ancient here....

the mayans knew so much and we lost most of that knowledge.
this last calendar or the long count...was not their longest, only the longest to survive.
what i did find out about the cycle ending in 2012 ... was it was a sun cycle so we are just at the beginning of this new cycle. we just do not understand what it means....we silly humans and our greed and anger killed off that knowledge.
 Quoting: psyoptics


I've been thinking lately about how they all just disappeared from their dinner table, utensils, plates, everything just left there. Very cool, wonder if it will happen in our time?
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]





GLP