SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Agreed. Now if we were still seeing X-flares happening, I would have more concern. Would put it at the 1% chance or less. SOLAR ACTIVITY SURGES: A sunspot on the sun's eastern limb is crackling with powerful X-class solar flares. AR1748 announced itself during the early hours of May 13th with an X1.7-class eruption (0217 UT), quickly followed by an X2.8-class flare (1609 UT) and an X3.2-class flare (0117 UT on May 14). These are the strongest flares of the year so far, and they signal a significant increase in solar activity. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. [link to spaceweather.com] This is their prediction, not fact hon. There is always a prediction number. We see this all the time, and there was only a 5% chance when we got the first X-flare. Just because it is higher now, doesn't mean any more will happen. Updated at: 2013 May 14 2200 UTC Quoting: Dettro 0-24 hr CLASS M 80 % CLASS X 50 % ------------------ 24-48 hr CLASS M 80 % CLASS X 50 % [link to spaceweather.com] ok so who's making bets? slaps 10 bucks on the table X flare in 12 hours... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:35 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 2013/05/13 02:16:00 Peaked X1.7 Quoting: whiteangel 2013/05/13 16:05:00 Peaked X2.8 2013/05/13 01:11:00 Peaked X3.2 2013/05/15 01:48:00 Peaked X1.2 [link to www.lmsal.com] Used the peaked times instead of the start times. This is 4 X-flares in less than 48 hours. wow..... no way! a 4th one??? holy crap I win 10 bucks and I was just guessing there would be another one Good job. I remembered you made that bet. doesnt matter I was kinda kidding thinking it wouldn't happen... but it did ill tell you this is very very very bad news... VERY bad news............... |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2230505 United States 05/14/2013 11:39 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
#Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 7406544 United States 05/14/2013 11:40 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 05/14/2013 11:42 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Damn GLP effect. Yeah I was looking at my telescope and noticed it without checking the X-ray flux, but it is a small one judging by my eyes. Where was it? Was it produced by the same sunspot which produced the triple X-flares? Yes it was,1748 [link to halpha.nso.edu] accompanied by a sheering away of ejecta from just beyond the North-East limb. Edito:With all the connections between the Eastern Sunspot Regions [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov] we have a fair chance of more decent flaring yet,though this comment may have neutered that possibility or,that comment on this comment may have increased the potential,lol. You're toooo funny and cute!! Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 05/14/2013 11:43 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | We just have to challenge the sun. Hey sunny, I bet you can't pop 4 X-flares in 48 hours, because you're just a pussy! Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116 It worked, lol Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2230505 United States 05/14/2013 11:44 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 34416224 United States 05/14/2013 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov] That was wiiiide!Big boy CME “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
#Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 7406544 United States 05/14/2013 11:46 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien Solar or regular telescope? regular, I want to follow comet ISON :) You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. Last Edited by Bomb Cyclone on 05/14/2013 11:48 PM |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 05/14/2013 11:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754 3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past this has to be a new record.. and if another X pops? oh crap! Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others. This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Fedex12 User ID: 2016649 Argentina 05/14/2013 11:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
EW User ID: 39487869 Australia 05/14/2013 11:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | 2013/05/13 02:16:00 Peaked X1.7 Quoting: whiteangel 2013/05/13 16:05:00 Peaked X2.8 2013/05/13 01:11:00 Peaked X3.2 2013/05/15 01:48:00 Peaked X1.2 [link to www.lmsal.com] Used the peaked times instead of the start times. This is 4 X-flares in less than 48 hours. wow..... no way! a 4th one??? holy crap I win 10 bucks and I was just guessing there would be another one Good job. I remembered you made that bet. doesnt matter I was kinda kidding thinking it wouldn't happen... but it did ill tell you this is very very very bad news... VERY bad news............... probably a stupid question, but why is it "very bad news" ? |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 05/14/2013 11:49 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If this SS pisses out like the majority of all the sunspots in the past two years then something is fucked up....how major CMEs have we seen blast right before a SS is facing earth or when it reaches the western limb.....something or somebody is influencing the sun....been watching it for too long to call it dumb luck.. Quoting: look'n 21562154 I'm thinking barrycenters have shifted. Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754 3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past this has to be a new record.. and if another X pops? oh crap! Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others. :x-ray11/98: This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] the last one on the chart is a M flare not X is it? |
shadasonic User ID: 34416224 United States 05/14/2013 11:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | I think we should be monitoring web sites for volcanoes and earthquakes.. for the next few days Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39455754 3 x flares = major doomage coming to earth again... I can not find any records of 3 x flares recorded that happened with in 24 hours so close together in the past this has to be a new record.. and if another X pops? oh crap! Happened in 1998....and I'm sure there are others. This might be close to a tie...4 in about 48 hrs [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] You may be right, what a wild sun wake up aye Sis! “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 2230505 United States 05/14/2013 11:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien Solar or regular telescope? regular, I want to follow comet ISON :) You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. thanks! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:51 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 39844379 Ireland 05/14/2013 11:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | |
shadasonic User ID: 34416224 United States 05/14/2013 11:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | If this SS pisses out like the majority of all the sunspots in the past two years then something is fucked up....how major CMEs have we seen blast right before a SS is facing earth or when it reaches the western limb.....something or somebody is influencing the sun....been watching it for too long to call it dumb luck.. Quoting: look'n 21562154 I'm thinking barrycenters have shifted. Images are representative (made by hand), not simulated. Two bodies with the same mass orbiting a common barycenter (similar to the 90 Antiope system) Two bodies with a difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter external to both bodies, as in the Pluto–Charon system Two bodies with a major difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter internal to one body (similar to the Earth–Moon system) Two bodies with an extreme difference in mass orbiting a common barycenter internal to one body (similar to the Sun–Earth system) Two bodies with the same mass orbiting a common barycenter, external to both bodies, with eccentric elliptic orbits (a common situation for binary stars) Sorry was tying in barycenter simulations and it wouldn't transfer the models, They were very cool.LOL I understand your view on this Isis and it may be right, but that may mean bigger problems. Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 05/14/2013 11:55 PM “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan |
joinca User ID: 23928361 United States 05/14/2013 11:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SolarSoft info about todays flare: [link to sdowww.lmsal.com] "The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31566384 United States 05/14/2013 11:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | can anyone recommend a good telescope aperature for a noob yet aspiring comet/solar/astro tard? budget is $500 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien Solar or regular telescope? regular, I want to follow comet ISON :) You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours? |
#Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 7406544 United States 05/15/2013 12:07 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours? Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment. |
Irish Brute User ID: 39252692 United States 05/15/2013 12:09 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours? Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment. Be mindfull.. ***** (The Cure For Most Cancers) [link to www.youtube.com] "At times, the experience of seeing ourselves in an unfavorable light can be painful. At other times, when we are not focused on our shortcomings, a less defended viewpoint frees up the energy that maintained the repression." Joan Bello |
#Geomagnetic_Storm# User ID: 7406544 United States 05/15/2013 12:10 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | ... Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm# You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours? Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment. Be mindfull.. I could of images these past solar flares but unfortunately couldn't. I'm sad :( |
joinca User ID: 23928361 United States 05/15/2013 12:16 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Great videos by Dr Keith Strong: X FLARES 1 -- 2 -- 3: 14 May 2013 [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] And this one: BREAKING NEWS: 4th X FLARE - 15 May 2013 [link to www.youtube.com (secure)] "The government will one day be corrupt and full of liars, and the people will flock to the one that tells the truth." - “Tyranny is defined as that which is legal for the government but illegal for the citizenry.” - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." - "A Country with no Border, is not a country" -- Thomas Jefferson We MUST NEVER forget what Kamala Harris did to Justice Kavanaugh & his family! |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 31566384 United States 05/15/2013 12:17 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | You'll need a GoTo scope. I have a 10" Dob. Was $1500. Look online for dobs, they are the cheapest. But you'll need a motor drive. Not even my telescope can track comets. It takes special equipment to tack a comet. I'm not sure on that one. GS, How much longer for your tracking mount to get going again? Seems like I remember you saying that a smaller counter-weight might be needed for those great videos of yours? Ugh! There's a local star party happening this Friday and I'm going to attend it to get some help on the polar alignment. Cool! Enjoy the party! |
Irish Brute User ID: 39252692 United States 05/15/2013 12:18 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Be mindfull.. I could of images these past solar flares but unfortunately couldn't. I'm sad :( Womp Womp Womp... ***** (The Cure For Most Cancers) [link to www.youtube.com] "At times, the experience of seeing ourselves in an unfavorable light can be painful. At other times, when we are not focused on our shortcomings, a less defended viewpoint frees up the energy that maintained the repression." Joan Bello |
Isis One User ID: 14343270 United States 05/15/2013 12:32 AM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | we need to look back to the ancient here.... Quoting: psyoptics the mayans knew so much and we lost most of that knowledge. this last calendar or the long count...was not their longest, only the longest to survive. what i did find out about the cycle ending in 2012 ... was it was a sun cycle so we are just at the beginning of this new cycle. we just do not understand what it means....we silly humans and our greed and anger killed off that knowledge. I've been thinking lately about how they all just disappeared from their dinner table, utensils, plates, everything just left there. Very cool, wonder if it will happen in our time? Spread the word, change the collective conscious...... THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide [link to www.godlikeproductions.com] |