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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Spittin'Cesium

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05/18/2013 02:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye




it is entirely possible for the Sun to cut loose
with a GIGANTIC CME full of all sorts of high energy
protons and electrons and other things that go bump in the night,
and if such a CME were to blast directly at planet Earth,
as it hit the upper atmosphere, all of the high
energy electrons and protons would start colliding with
all the Ozone molecules in the Ozone layer and cause them
to break apart, and combine with other elements (which would not be Ozone), etc. etc.,
and this calamitous churning cauldron of
chemistry going on in the upper atmosphere would be one
hell'uv'a lot more than any Aurora Borealis. the upshot
being that the entire Ozone Layer on the sun-lit side
of the Earth would be destroyed in an instant, and
all of the Ozone left on the dark-side of the Earth
wouldn't be enough to take-up-the-slack. and from that
moment forward the Earth will begin a very slow imperceptible "burning"
from all of the high energy Ultraviolet light that would then be reaching the surface
(note: "burning" is nothing other than high energy breaking up molecules,
until there is nothing left but carbon :)

anyway, after a week, all vegetation would be dead, all
the small animals will start dying, humans could not go
outside without being severely heated up,
then, no more food, and all the larger animals
and Humankind are all dead in a matter of months...


 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


bump
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


To USAC36 - No.

Example No.1 Mars.
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Luisport

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05/18/2013 02:24 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 02:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You can estimate the direction of Ejections from both A+B still.


 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


in the case of the present position of Stereo A and Stereo B,
certainly you can. and, in that case, that would be 180 degrees away from the Earth.

hope this helps.

.
Spittin'Cesium

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05/18/2013 02:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'll just keep schtum.

For the record(if anyone was wondering that is)I am still firmly of the mind that 24 will be a relative dud and 25 extremely small.

Luv2ya.

Oh,yes how could I forget,it is still bloody cold.

: P

Last Edited by Spittin'Cesium on 05/18/2013 04:14 PM
The thing that hath been,
is That which shall be;
and that which is done is that which shall be done:and there is no new thing under the Sun.
Ecclesiastes 9:1
Luisport

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05/18/2013 04:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C
Kael

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05/18/2013 04:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
At last some action!
"Thou we are not now that strength which in old days moved earth and heaven that which we are, we are.
One equal temper of heroic hearts made weak by time and fate but strong in will to strive, to seek, to find and not to yield"
hIndsIght2020
Russian shill fighter

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05/18/2013 05:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Not that I know anything about flares, but I thought flares were instant bursts of energy, no slowly growing ones.
Luisport

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05/18/2013 05:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C2.4...

Last Edited by Luisport on 05/18/2013 05:21 PM
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 05:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C2.4...
 Quoting: Luisport


pretty wimpy. it's falling off now.
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 05:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
no typical flare, this has potencial
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/18/2013 05:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Long duration event.
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 05:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
this is no typical flare, has potencial !!
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/18/2013 05:31 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is this c flare from the new region coming in?

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 05:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C2.4...
 Quoting: Luisport


pretty wimpy. it's falling off now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


any indication yet of which region just popped off?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/18/2013 05:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C2.4...
 Quoting: Luisport


pretty wimpy. it's falling off now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


any indication yet of which region just popped off?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 39977436
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05/18/2013 05:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is this c flare from the new region coming in?

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


well all of that white light is x-rays, so i guess that
must be the one.
Luisport

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05/18/2013 05:42 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C2.4...
 Quoting: Luisport


pretty wimpy. it's falling off now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


any indication yet of which region just popped off?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's sooo slow decaying!
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/18/2013 05:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


pretty wimpy. it's falling off now.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


any indication yet of which region just popped off?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436


[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


It's sooo slow decaying!
 Quoting: Luisport


That x flare region? Yes it is :'(
Anonymous Coward
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05/18/2013 07:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The LDE C-flare looks like the new area N07E89 on eastern limb. 1748 went to sleep
whiteangel

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05/18/2013 07:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The LDE C-flare looks like the new area N07E89 on eastern limb. 1748 went to sleep
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1775746


Forgot to log in, that was me, lol
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 08:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
You can estimate the direction of Ejections from both A+B still.


 Quoting: Spittin'Cesium


in the case of the present position of Stereo A and Stereo B,
certainly you can. and, in that case, that would be 180 degrees away from the Earth.

hope this helps.

.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 39977436



Heres an example of the stereo tool page that gives proper coordinates for examination


STEREO-B Earth STEREO-A

Heliocentric distance (AU) 1.003956 1.011679 0.959615
Semidiameter (arcsec) 955.846 948.550 1000.014

HCI longitude 20.753 162.412 299.230
HCI latitude -2.326 -2.200 6.378

Carrington longitude 165.081 306.740 83.558
Carrington rotation number 2137.541 2137.148 2136.768

Heliographic (HEEQ) longitude -141.659 0.000 136.818
Heliographic (HEEQ) latitude -2.326 -2.200 6.378

HAE longitude 96.642 238.045 14.798

Earth Ecliptic (HEE) longitude -141.403 0.000 136.753
Earth Ecliptic (HEE) latitude 0.256 -0.000 0.042

Roll from ecliptic north -0.321 0.046
Roll from solar north 6.458 3.580

Light travel time to Earth (min) 15.823 15.243

Separation angle with Earth 141.402 136.753

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 05/18/2013 09:04 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 08:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The LDE C-flare looks like the new area N07E89 on eastern limb. 1748 went to sleep
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1775746


And the action starts back up in the east!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 09:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]


Off topic but heres apic of the meteor in mexico, seems there was one in Pa. also.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 09:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
If the embedded star were a 100 Jupiter mass red dwarf, its luminosity which normally would be about 0.09% of the sun’s luminosity would soar 2,500 times to 2.3 solar luminosities. So in this close vicinity to the Galactic core, stars would be rapidly losing their atmospheres, even if they were below their Eddington Limit. In a forum posting made last October, I had warned of this stellar mass loss effect which could generate large quantities of gas which could ultimately fall into the Galactic core. The new orbital trajectory for the G2 cloud substantially enhances this danger.

Just now getting to the info on the G2 cloud and its new trajectory. If this is true this could be huge news!

[link to etheric.com]
 Quoting: shadasonic



Bringing this over from a different thread. Seems the G2 cloud will come twice as close to the galactic center as previously thought.......if this is true this is a game changer.

link again. [link to etheric.com]
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 10:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm predicting 1745 will post possitive polarity umbra by 60 long. and blow out a big event by 75 going into 90
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
M1.618

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05/18/2013 10:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
wmMmw
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 10:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to solarham.net]

We are going to have a nice north of the border collection of SS soon. The closer to the mixing the better the energy , if we could get them to hold on to it.




Dipolarity movement By Horace Babcock


Butterfly diagram showing paired sunspot pattern. Graph is sunspot Wolf number.
Horace W. Babcock proposed in 1961 a qualitative model for the dynamics of the solar outer layers:
The start of the 22-year cycle begins with a well-established dipole field component aligned along the solar rotational axis. The field lines tend to be held by the highly conductive solar plasma of the solar surface.
The solar surface plasma rotation rate is different at different latitudes, and the rotation rate is 20 percent faster at the equator than at the poles (one rotation every 27 days). Consequently, the magnetic field lines are wrapped by 20 percent every 27 days.
After many rotations, the field lines become highly twisted and bundled, increasing their intensity, and the resulting buoyancy lifts the bundle to the solar surface, forming a bipolar field that appears as two spots, being kinks in the field lines.
The sunspots result from the strong local magnetic fields in the solar surface that exclude the light-emitting solar plasma and appear as darkened spots on the solar surface.
The leading spot of the bipolar field has the same polarity as the solar hemisphere, and the trailing spot is of opposite polarity. The leading spot of the bipolar field tends to migrate towards the equator, while the trailing spot of opposite polarity migrates towards the solar pole of the respective hemisphere with a resultant reduction of the solar dipole moment. This process of sunspot formation and migration continues until the solar dipole field

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 05/18/2013 10:53 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/18/2013 10:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large helmet streamer cut loose a lot of plasma near the SE limb. The big, slow CME seems associated with the LDE seen on the x-ray flux.

SOHO Images-
C2: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

C3: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

This event was not Earth-directed.

Two new active regions are coming over the east limb now.

Latest GOES X-Ray Imager:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

East Limb Activity-
:5/18-eastlimb:
shadasonic

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05/18/2013 11:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
A large helmet streamer cut loose a lot of plasma near the SE limb. The big, slow CME seems associated with the LDE seen on the x-ray flux.

SOHO Images-
C2: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

C3: [link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

This event was not Earth-directed.

Two new active regions are coming over the east limb now.

Latest GOES X-Ray Imager:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

East Limb Activity-
:5/18-eastlimb:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks Hugh, the east will be hot again soon my friend!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/18/2013 11:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Latest NOAA Discussion- Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C6/Sf flare at 18/0345 UTC from Region 1748 (N12E11, Dao/beta-delta).
Some weakening was observed in the delta of the leader spots in Region
1748 along with slight decay in the trailing spots.
However, a strong
east-west inversion line was still evident just north of the trailer
spots. Region 1744 (N06W54, Dao/beta) appears to have lost its gamma
magnetic configuration. Slight growth was observed in the intermediate
area of Region 1750 (S09W54, Dao/beta).
The rest of the spotted regions
were either stable or decaying. No Earth-directed coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed during the period.

Geospace Forecast...
By midday on day 1 (19 May), the 17 May CME is expected to impact the
geomagnetic field causing minor to major storm (G1-Minor to G2-Moderate)
levels
. By day 2 (20 May), conditions are expected to be at quiet to
active levels as CME effects wane. A return to quiet to unsettled
levels is expected on day 3 (21 May).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ENLIL CME Model:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

AR1750 Seems to be Growing-
:1750:

AR1744 and 1748 have lost their 'Gamma' classification.

Latest HMI Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 139 Issued at 0030Z on 19 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1743 N20W69 016 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha
1744 N06W54 001 0070 Dao 09 05 Beta
1745 N14W27 334 0210 Dao 08 11 Beta
1746 S27W26 333 0120 Dso 06 04 Beta
1747 S18W31 338 0040 Cao 09 06 Beta
1748 N12E11 296 0140 Dao 10 12 Beta-Delta
1749 S22W78 025 0010 Bxo 04 03 Beta
1750 S09W54 001 0080 Dao 06 09 Beta
1752 N18W52 359 0020 Cro 05 04 Beta

AR1750 Magnetogram-
:1750mag:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 05/18/2013 11:20 PM

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