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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Luisport

User ID: 40091016
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05/19/2013 05:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Peaked C3.4. I thought it could of had potential.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


me too.... yeahsure
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/19/2013 05:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Peaked C3.4. I thought it could of had potential.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


me too.... yeahsure
 Quoting: Luisport


Night night. Maybe tomorrow :)
Luisport

User ID: 40091016
Portugal
05/19/2013 05:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Peaked C3.4. I thought it could of had potential.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


me too.... yeahsure
 Quoting: Luisport


Night night. Maybe tomorrow :)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


hf
curi0sis*SolSis

User ID: 37752136
Canada
05/19/2013 05:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Peaked C3.4. I thought it could of had potential.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


me too.... yeahsure
 Quoting: Luisport


Night night. Maybe tomorrow :)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Me three : )
...it still might, not rushing all the way down wink

Hello Luis sun

G'night Geo hf

starrynight

G'morning daytime SolGeeks wink

I'm off to ...breakfast
. . . . . .. . . .vv

sleep
"But the plans were on display . . ."
"On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them."
"That's the display department."
"With a torch."
"Ah, well the lights had probably gone."
"So had the stairs."
"But look, you found the notice, didn't you?"
"Yes," said Arthur, "yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying Beware of the Leopard."
-Chapter One, H2G2
Luisport

User ID: 40091016
Portugal
05/19/2013 05:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
hf Hi everyone! Good night to the night ones and good day to the day ones!!!
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 21765116
Netherlands
05/19/2013 06:29 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to twitter.com (secure)]


Off topic but heres apic of the meteor in mexico, seems there was one in Pa. also.
 Quoting: shadasonic


That picture is from the Russian meteor in February.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 16845676
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05/19/2013 07:56 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just FYI I dreamed 2x last night the world was shaking so hard the sand of the ocean was floating up and I was getting ready for something big, abduct

grouphug
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 16845676
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05/19/2013 09:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: four fireballs over US in last 24 hours

hiding
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
United States
05/19/2013 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok so I didn't know solarham worked in future???? Read his newest headline, correct me if i'm wrong but he said the ACE spacecraft detected a sudden wind increase to 500 km/s at 15:00 UTC, to my knowledge I believe its 14:15 UTC currently, so uhhh....

[link to solarham.net]

[link to solarham.net] << ace craft readings to date?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
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05/19/2013 10:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and now his site goes down??? wtf
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
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05/19/2013 10:22 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
i'm the first person to be with this guy and this site but ths just put a huge suspicion in my brain here.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
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05/19/2013 10:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sites back up can I get someone to confirm this bullshit?
RefreshPage

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05/19/2013 10:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
United States
05/19/2013 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
United States
05/19/2013 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
RefreshPage

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United States
05/19/2013 10:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, shit. I really was not paying attention. Ran out of caffinated coffee this morning, brain not functioning properly...
I cannot explain. And now I'm just confused....
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
United States
05/19/2013 10:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, shit. I really was not paying attention. Ran out of caffinated coffee this morning, brain not functioning properly...
I cannot explain. And now I'm just confused....
 Quoting: RefreshPage


This would have pretty severe implications if somehow the shock does arrive at 15:00 UTC, which is in 12 minutes.
RefreshPage

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United States
05/19/2013 10:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ah, fixed. He corrected his post.
[link to www.solarham.net]


Edited to add: not fixed, removed.

I'm going back to lurking now, since I am not helping further the discussion 1dunno1

Last Edited by RefreshPage on 05/19/2013 10:57 AM
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
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05/19/2013 10:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ah, fixed. He corrected his post.
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: RefreshPage


So he removed it, but why was it up in the first place? You don't just usually put that up unless you get data indicating the arrival?
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 39479530
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05/19/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


First of all your link doesn't work, so we can't confirm unless you have a screenshot. Secondly, you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Why is this such a big deal for you? You may have been looking at the forecast by NOAA which called for an increase in SW to 500km/s @14:00UTC in association with the expected CME arrival.

.Forecast...
WSA/ENLIL model suggests a shock enhancement of solar wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft around 19/1400 UTC. Estimates of the speed of the shock
are in the 500 km/s range with a corresponding increase in density and
total interplanetary magnetic field values (Bt).
Solar wind conditions
are expected to be enhanced through day 2 (20 May) as CME effects wane.
Conditions are expected to return to nominal levels by day 3 (21 May).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 40056309
United States
05/19/2013 11:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


First of all your link doesn't work, so we can't confirm unless you have a screenshot. Secondly, you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Why is this such a big deal for you? You may have been looking at the forecast by NOAA which called for an increase in SW to 500km/s @14:00UTC in association with the expected CME arrival.

.Forecast...
WSA/ENLIL model suggests a shock enhancement of solar wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft around 19/1400 UTC. Estimates of the speed of the shock
are in the 500 km/s range with a corresponding increase in density and
total interplanetary magnetic field values (Bt).
Solar wind conditions
are expected to be enhanced through day 2 (20 May) as CME effects wane.
Conditions are expected to return to nominal levels by day 3 (21 May).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


He always goes off ACE data to indicate arrivals or so he's posted. Not a prediction, not to my knowledge.
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I copied his post as well and had others in other thread confirm what they saw.

Updated 05/19/2013 @ 15:00 UTC
Incoming CME Detected
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden solar wind increase to near 500 km/s at 15:00 UTC. Tthis signals the passage of an interplanetary shockwave past the spacecraft and it should sweep past Earth within the next hour. The CME was the result of an M3 solar flare event on May 17th around Sunspot 1748. Stay Tuned for more information.
Anonymous Coward
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United States
05/19/2013 11:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just very odd considering i've watched this site for years.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 39479530
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05/19/2013 11:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2084
Issue Time: 2013 May 19 1149 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2083
Valid From: 2013 May 19 0205 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2013 May 20 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 105
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 2124 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18: None (Below G1) May 19: G2 (Moderate) May 20: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Low Energy Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE MAG-SWEPAM:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 11:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I copied his post as well and had others in other thread confirm what they saw.

Updated 05/19/2013 @ 15:00 UTC
Incoming CME Detected
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden solar wind increase to near 500 km/s at 15:00 UTC. Tthis signals the passage of an interplanetary shockwave past the spacecraft and it should sweep past Earth within the next hour. The CME was the result of an M3 solar flare event on May 17th around Sunspot 1748. Stay Tuned for more information.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


Why don't you write an email to him and ask? WTF can I say?
Anonymous Coward
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United States
05/19/2013 11:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am :)
Luisport

User ID: 40104008
Portugal
05/19/2013 11:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
oi! C4.2!!!

Last Edited by Luisport on 05/19/2013 11:18 AM
Luisport

User ID: 40104008
Portugal
05/19/2013 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 39479530
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05/19/2013 11:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
bokonon
User ID: 39792964
Brazil
05/19/2013 11:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

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