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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 10:27 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sites back up can I get someone to confirm this bullshit?
RefreshPage

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05/19/2013 10:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 10:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 10:42 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
RefreshPage

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05/19/2013 10:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, shit. I really was not paying attention. Ran out of caffinated coffee this morning, brain not functioning properly...
I cannot explain. And now I'm just confused....
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 10:50 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Well, shit. I really was not paying attention. Ran out of caffinated coffee this morning, brain not functioning properly...
I cannot explain. And now I'm just confused....
 Quoting: RefreshPage


This would have pretty severe implications if somehow the shock does arrive at 15:00 UTC, which is in 12 minutes.
RefreshPage

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05/19/2013 10:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ah, fixed. He corrected his post.
[link to www.solarham.net]


Edited to add: not fixed, removed.

I'm going back to lurking now, since I am not helping further the discussion 1dunno1

Last Edited by RefreshPage on 05/19/2013 10:57 AM
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 10:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ah, fixed. He corrected his post.
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: RefreshPage


So he removed it, but why was it up in the first place? You don't just usually put that up unless you get data indicating the arrival?
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 11:01 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


First of all your link doesn't work, so we can't confirm unless you have a screenshot. Secondly, you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Why is this such a big deal for you? You may have been looking at the forecast by NOAA which called for an increase in SW to 500km/s @14:00UTC in association with the expected CME arrival.

.Forecast...
WSA/ENLIL model suggests a shock enhancement of solar wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft around 19/1400 UTC. Estimates of the speed of the shock
are in the 500 km/s range with a corresponding increase in density and
total interplanetary magnetic field values (Bt).
Solar wind conditions
are expected to be enhanced through day 2 (20 May) as CME effects wane.
Conditions are expected to return to nominal levels by day 3 (21 May).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I've been watching Solarham this morning to see the CME arrive - didn't notice the site go down at all.
And I'm guessing that when he made the last post he added an hour to UTC, a human error, not a conspiracy...
 Quoting: RefreshPage


look at the site. [link to solarham.net]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] 2 Hr plot of ace solar wind data straight from their website, can you confirm no CME detection?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


whether he made an error or not, no CME has been detected. Please explain this to me.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


First of all your link doesn't work, so we can't confirm unless you have a screenshot. Secondly, you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Why is this such a big deal for you? You may have been looking at the forecast by NOAA which called for an increase in SW to 500km/s @14:00UTC in association with the expected CME arrival.

.Forecast...
WSA/ENLIL model suggests a shock enhancement of solar wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft around 19/1400 UTC. Estimates of the speed of the shock
are in the 500 km/s range with a corresponding increase in density and
total interplanetary magnetic field values (Bt).
Solar wind conditions
are expected to be enhanced through day 2 (20 May) as CME effects wane.
Conditions are expected to return to nominal levels by day 3 (21 May).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


He always goes off ACE data to indicate arrivals or so he's posted. Not a prediction, not to my knowledge.
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:04 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I copied his post as well and had others in other thread confirm what they saw.

Updated 05/19/2013 @ 15:00 UTC
Incoming CME Detected
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden solar wind increase to near 500 km/s at 15:00 UTC. Tthis signals the passage of an interplanetary shockwave past the spacecraft and it should sweep past Earth within the next hour. The CME was the result of an M3 solar flare event on May 17th around Sunspot 1748. Stay Tuned for more information.
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:06 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
just very odd considering i've watched this site for years.
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 11:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2084
Issue Time: 2013 May 19 1149 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 2083
Valid From: 2013 May 19 0205 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2013 May 20 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Space Weather Message Code: WATA30
Serial Number: 105
Issue Time: 2013 May 17 2124 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
May 18: None (Below G1) May 19: G2 (Moderate) May 20: None (Below G1)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE Low Energy Protons:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE MAG-SWEPAM:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 11:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I copied his post as well and had others in other thread confirm what they saw.

Updated 05/19/2013 @ 15:00 UTC
Incoming CME Detected
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sudden solar wind increase to near 500 km/s at 15:00 UTC. Tthis signals the passage of an interplanetary shockwave past the spacecraft and it should sweep past Earth within the next hour. The CME was the result of an M3 solar flare event on May 17th around Sunspot 1748. Stay Tuned for more information.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056309


Why don't you write an email to him and ask? WTF can I say?
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:15 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am :)
Luisport

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05/19/2013 11:17 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
oi! C4.2!!!

Last Edited by Luisport on 05/19/2013 11:18 AM
Luisport

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05/19/2013 11:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 11:31 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
bokonon
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05/19/2013 11:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 11:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok he posted the correction, having a good track record is important in scientific study.
Luisport

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05/19/2013 11:50 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


rising again! C2.1...

Last Edited by Luisport on 05/19/2013 11:51 AM
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 12:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mystery of the Moon's Magnetic Field-

Earth's magnetic field is created by its internal dynamo, which itself is generated by the planet's churning molten metal core. Research increasingly suggests that the moon once had a dynamo as well, with evidence of magnetism found in lunar rocks returned by Apollo astronauts.

Models of the moon's core suggest its dynamo should have lasted only until about 4.1 billion years ago. However, last year, scientists revealed that the moon possessed a magnetic field for much longer than previously thought, with a powerful dynamo in its core from 4.2 billion years ago to at least 3.72 billion years ago.
Researchers have proposed two possibilities to explain why the moon's dynamo lasted so long. One possible explanation is that giant cosmic impacts set the moon lurching enough to drive its dynamo. Another explanation has to do with how the moon's core spins around a slightly different axis than its surrounding mantle layer, generating wobbles - known as precession - that could dramatically stir its core.
The cosmic-impact idea is supported by the fact that the moon experienced massive collisions until around 3.7 billion years ago, such as the one that created the 715-mile-wide (1,150 kilometers) Mare Imbrium, among other craters.

Very interesting article here:
[link to www.accuweather.com]

earthrise1
Luisport

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05/19/2013 12:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


rising again! C2.1...
 Quoting: Luisport


This ia an LDE...
Da fuq

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05/19/2013 12:26 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mystery of the Moon's Magnetic Field-

Earth's magnetic field is created by its internal dynamo, which itself is generated by the planet's churning molten metal core. Research increasingly suggests that the moon once had a dynamo as well, with evidence of magnetism found in lunar rocks returned by Apollo astronauts.

Models of the moon's core suggest its dynamo should have lasted only until about 4.1 billion years ago. However, last year, scientists revealed that the moon possessed a magnetic field for much longer than previously thought, with a powerful dynamo in its core from 4.2 billion years ago to at least 3.72 billion years ago.
Researchers have proposed two possibilities to explain why the moon's dynamo lasted so long. One possible explanation is that giant cosmic impacts set the moon lurching enough to drive its dynamo. Another explanation has to do with how the moon's core spins around a slightly different axis than its surrounding mantle layer, generating wobbles - known as precession - that could dramatically stir its core.
The cosmic-impact idea is supported by the fact that the moon experienced massive collisions until around 3.7 billion years ago, such as the one that created the 715-mile-wide (1,150 kilometers) Mare Imbrium, among other craters.

Very interesting article here:
[link to www.accuweather.com]

earthrise1
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 12:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C 6.3!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Another nice C-flare from AR1750:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


rising again! C2.1...
 Quoting: Luisport


This ia an LDE...
 Quoting: Luisport


The recent SDO images show co-incidental eruptions in the north and south near the same time-frame as the flare from 1750. A small flare appeared above region 1744 in the north; and some ejecta was visible from region 1746 in the south. I didn't notice any CME as the plasma seems to be raining back onto the sun, but this may account for the LDE. Go to 'Browse Data' on SDO and maybe you'll see something I missed:

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 12:46 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
AR1748 (of 4 X-flares fame) is now directly facing Earth. Its spots have greatly diminished but he may have a bullet or two left in X-Raygun. Some filaments are embedded in the region also, so it wouldn't take an X or even an M-flare to send a good-sized CME at us.

AR1748 Magnetogran for 5/19/2013-
:5/19-1748mag:

Earth's magnetic footpoint is hopping all over the place this week. Yesterday it was in the northern hemisphere near 1745, but today it's near 1746 in the south.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1750 Growing & Active-
:5/19-1750:
Da fuq

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05/19/2013 12:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

We are eating it pretty good right now







Middle looks like a code, pattern is nuts.


[link to www.haarp.alaska.edu]

woah

Last Edited by Da fuq on 05/19/2013 12:51 PM
Luisport

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05/19/2013 01:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another pop up! C2.9...

Last Edited by Luisport on 05/19/2013 01:22 PM
Luisport

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05/19/2013 01:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another pop up! C2.9...
 Quoting: Luisport


C4.2!!!


Last Edited by Luisport on 05/19/2013 01:28 PM
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 01:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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