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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Isis One

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05/19/2013 08:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Eastern limb is firing.

Western limb is firing.

And the middle is taking a snooze!
 Quoting: whiteangel


I really think its a barycenter issue. Something out there, two planets or supernovas or binary systems are configured in such a way as to "tug" on the sun on both "sides" (from our perspective).

From wiki on barycentres

[link to en.wikipedia.org]
 Quoting: Isis One


what happen to the news about that supernova that was supposed to impact around the 15th or something like that?
 Quoting: SnowboardingAlien


haven't heard any updates about it arriving.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
hIndsIght2020
Russian shill fighter

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05/19/2013 08:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another minor C Flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 08:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just felt the all-familiar earth vibrations I usually feel during/shortly after solar flares.. in WV.
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 08:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another minor C Flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: hIndsIght2020


yep.. too weird..
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 08:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That C4 flare may be AR1748 waking up again. He's getting ready to blast Earth now that he's at Zero Degrees or 'Point Zulu'. Don't forget those nasty embedded filaments.

GONG Network image:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Mauna Loa movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

pinkDoomsday
FrenchyMary

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05/19/2013 09:01 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks for your answer, I understand where the difference can come from (even if it remains an extremely huge difference in that case )

Be safe everyonehf
Isis One

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05/19/2013 09:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That C4 flare may be AR1748 waking up again. He's getting ready to blast Earth now that he's at Zero Degrees or 'Point Zulu'. Don't forget those nasty embedded filaments.

GONG Network image:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Mauna Loa movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

pinkDoomsday
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks for all the work you do Hugh, making data real and interesting.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 09:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm feeling more activity.. what gives..?
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14778846
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05/19/2013 09:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That C4 flare may be AR1748 waking up again. He's getting ready to blast Earth now that he's at Zero Degrees or 'Point Zulu'. Don't forget those nasty embedded filaments.

GONG Network image:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Mauna Loa movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

:pinkDoomsday:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks for all the work you do Hugh, making data real and interesting.
 Quoting: Isis One


Yeah, it's nice to have inside resources!hf
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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05/19/2013 09:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check this out, zoom in to see just how many EQ's they've had in past few hours (5's and 6's). Something is REALLY going on there. I'm no expert, but I think these are foreshocks. Thankfully, not a populated region.

[link to gimquakesmap7.com]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14778846
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05/19/2013 09:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check this out, zoom in to see just how many EQ's they've had in past few hours (5's and 6's). Something is REALLY going on there. I'm no expert, but I think these are foreshocks. Thankfully, not a populated region.

[link to gimquakesmap7.com]
 Quoting: Isis One


This is getting scary. Canada has also been active.

Thread: 2 EarthQuakes in Canada (updated NOW 4)

[link to anf.ucsd.edu]

Latitude 56.3083
Longitude -112.0750
Magnitude 4.8 mb
Depth 15 km
UTC Time 22:44:48 May 19th, 2013 UTC
Alberta, Canada, Eastern Alaska To Vancouver Island

Latitude 63.1809
Longitude -124.4098
Magnitude 4.9 mb
Depth 15 km
UTC Time 22:43:53 May 19th, 2013 UTC
Location Nw Territories - Nunavut, Canada, Northeastern Asia, Northern Alaska To Greenland

58.5461 -116.7897 4.8 mb 15 21:10:45 May 19th, 2013 UTC Alberta, Canada, Eastern Alaska To Vancouver Island

64.8765 -139.0532 5.0 mb 15 21:09:21 May 19th, 2013 UTC Southern Yukon Territory, Canada, Eastern Alaska To Vancouver Island
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 14778846
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05/19/2013 09:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is there some kind of alignment with..

Latitude 64.1348
Longitude -168.5071
Magnitude 5.2 mb
Depth 15 km
UTC Time 23:53:47 May 19th, 2013 UTC
Location Bering Strait, Northeastern Asia, Northern Alaska To Greenland

?
shadasonic

User ID: 34416224
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05/19/2013 09:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is solar ham down for anyone else, I can't get it to load!

Solar Winds are at 500? based on this Japanese website.

[link to swnews.nict.go.jp]
 Quoting: Dettro


No need to ask the Japanese. They get 90% of their data from NOAA; so does Russia, China, etc., etc. We're one big global prison now, hehe.

ACE and SOHO showing wind speed less than 450 km/s.

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I didn't realize Russia also. Thats suprising
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/19/2013 09:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Check this out, zoom in to see just how many EQ's they've had in past few hours (5's and 6's). Something is REALLY going on there. I'm no expert, but I think these are foreshocks. Thankfully, not a populated region.

[link to gimquakesmap7.com]
 Quoting: Isis One


Kamchatka is going to blow!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 09:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks for your answer, I understand where the difference can come from (even if it remains an extremely huge difference in that case )

Be safe everyonehf
 Quoting: FrenchyMary


Thanks for posting, Mary.hf Your questions are always welcome here tho' I can't always guarantee the answers will satisfy, LOL.

By the way, I'm still suspicious of the current ACE solar wind measurements. We shall wait and see. NOAA seems to expect a major storm tonight/today from this CME.

:5/17-conemdl:
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/19/2013 09:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question. What type of storm will it be if we ever get a kp9+? Severe? Major?
Anonymous Coward
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05/19/2013 09:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
bump
shadasonic

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05/19/2013 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
That C4 flare may be AR1748 waking up again. He's getting ready to blast Earth now that he's at Zero Degrees or 'Point Zulu'. Don't forget those nasty embedded filaments.

GONG Network image:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Mauna Loa movie loop:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

pinkDoomsday
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Even a moderate flare could set those plasma lines a running
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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05/19/2013 09:45 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question. What type of storm will it be if we ever get a kp9+? Severe? Major?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Here's the classification table.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/19/2013 09:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Question. What type of storm will it be if we ever get a kp9+? Severe? Major?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Here's the classification table.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Thanks.
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 09:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The X-ray background has just dipped below C-level for the first time in 10 hours.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solarsoft has awarded the C4 flare to AR1750 (its 7th C) although I'm sure I saw 1748 lighting up as well.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Maybe NASA knew something that NOAA didn't when they neglected to issue any forecast for this CME arrival. So far I see little geomagnetic activity at all. Of course these events can last 10 or more hours, so things may change. The GOES electron flux saw more action the past two nights:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer showing a bit of a knot on the graph:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer @13.5 nT isn't even close to 'Unsettled' yet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Density at SOHO has calmed down to around 15p/cm3 (Note: Beware of Dog...he bites):

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE proton density still hasn't cracked the 10 level yet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Unless things change I don't see even a G1 storm from this. Of course if the Bz flips south and the wind speed increases we may see a storm. Where's Mtng. man with the M-flare dance?
dancedancedancedance
shadasonic

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05/19/2013 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The X-ray background has just dipped below C-level for the first time in 10 hours.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Solarsoft has awarded the C4 flare to AR1750 (its 7th C) although I'm sure I saw 1748 lighting up as well.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Maybe NASA knew something that NOAA didn't when they neglected to issue any forecast for this CME arrival. So far I see little geomagnetic activity at all. Of course these events can last 10 or more hours, so things may change. The GOES electron flux saw more action the past two nights:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer showing a bit of a knot on the graph:
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer @13.5 nT isn't even close to 'Unsettled' yet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The Density at SOHO has calmed down to around 15p/cm3 (Note: Beware of Dog...he bites):

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

ACE proton density still hasn't cracked the 10 level yet:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Unless things change I don't see even a G1 storm from this. Of course if the Bz flips south and the wind speed increases we may see a storm. Where's Mtng. man with the M-flare dance?
dancedancedancedance
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


One thing I noticed is that all of 1748s energy releases went southward on the Bz as they hit so I was assuming when this M flare CME hit it would do the same. I don't feel like we've seen it yet.

My ears went ballistic about 10 minutes ago, thats why I jumped on, thought it was coming in?

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 05/19/2013 09:57 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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05/19/2013 10:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA's latest solar activity discussion blurb-

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C9 at 19/1750 UTC from a region just behind the northeast limb, likely
old Region 1731 (N09, L=189)
. Slight decay was observed in the leader
and trailing spots of Region 1748 (N12W00, Fao/beta-gamma-delta),
however it appears to continue to maintain its delta in the leader
spots. Region 1750 (S09W67, Dai/beta) is still in a growth phase with
further spot development within its intermediate area.
The rest of the
spotted regions were either stable or in slight decay. No
Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the
period.

Geospace Forecast (maybe sunny...maybe raining buckets,LOL)
.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels
on day 1 (20 May) due to continued activity associated with the 17 May
CME. Conditions are expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels by
day 2 (21 May). On day 3 (22 may) a recurrent CH HSS is expected to
move into geoeffective position causing conditions to increase to quiet
to active levels.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What did the ACE Satellite press release say? Oh, yeah, NOAA would be able to forecast spaceweather with 100% accuracy, LOL.

New Active Region Visible in NE-
:5/20-newspot:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 140 Issued at 0030Z on 20 May 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1744 N06W67 001 0050 Cao 06 03 Beta
1745 N13W40 334 0180 Cao 05 08 Beta
1746 S27W40 334 0140 Dso 06 05 Beta
1747 S17W45 339 0020 Hrx 03 02 Alpha
1748 N12W00 294 0110 Fao 16 23 Beta-Gamma-Delta
1750 S09W67 001 0090 Dai 07 12 Beta


Latest HMI Intensitygram (b&w):
[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
shadasonic

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05/19/2013 10:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
What did the ACE Satellite press release say? Oh, yeah, NOAA would be able to forecast spaceweather with 100% accuracy, LOL.


Exactly, 100% guarantee of 50% inaccuracy with 75% of that being wrong. They squabble and hide info as well as the rest of the govt. machine
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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05/19/2013 11:06 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm out for a while , storms getting rough!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2013 01:26 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M Flare !!

5a

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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Canada
05/20/2013 01:32 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe this is it.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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05/20/2013 01:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I believe this is it.

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 40056625


Damn
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 36140692
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05/20/2013 01:34 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Dettro


Good catch!
Anonymous Coward
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05/20/2013 01:37 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Dettro


Good catch!
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Thanks, I was waiting and waiting for this to go up gaah. It was going up so freaking slow.

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