SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) | |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 01:36 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | we are now having a S2 solar radiation storm ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu Begin Time: 2013 May 22 1520 UTC NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures. Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible. Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies S2 solar radiation storm scale [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 01:47 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | this event also caused a spike and rise in High energy protons as seen at ACE [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] as well as a spike and rise in electrons [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] here you can see them together over the last 24hrs [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] there is an electron saturation seen at GOES (where we see the sudden spike downward) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] These were all caused by this large CME, not from the M Flare! the Xray flux monitors the solar radiation size... we have all these other monitors to read everything else ;) we have seen this happen many times in the past when there was a large CME with a small solar flare, and a few times with no flare associated with this at all it can be a bit confusing when it occurs with a Flare, making us think it had to do with the flare size, when its all to do with the size and direction of the plasma ejected from the sun (CME) because we are seeing this on all monitors, it is possible we will see a bit more than a glancing blow from this CME late on the 24th into the 25th we have to keep in mind how much harder it is right now to calculate a CME ejection direction using stereo right now. this because of how far back both STEREO A & B have orbited toward the backside of the sun here we can see where they are [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/22/2013 01:51 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
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whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 01:52 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 01:53 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | this event also caused a spike and rise in High energy protons as seen at ACE Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] as well as a spike and rise in electrons [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] here you can see them together over the last 24hrs [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] there is an electron saturation seen at GOES (where we see the sudden spike downward) [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] These were all caused by this large CME, not from the M Flare! the Xray flux monitors the solar radiation size... we have all these other monitors to read everything else ;) we have seen this happen many times in the past when there was a large CME with a small solar flare, and a few times with no flare associated with this at all it can be a bit confusing when it occurs with a Flare, making us think it had to do with the flare size, when its all to do with the size and direction of the plasma ejected from the sun (CME) because we are seeing this on all monitors, it is possible we will see a bit more than a glancing blow from this CME late on the 24th into the 25th we have to keep in mind how much harder it is right now to calculate a CME ejection direction using stereo right now. this because of how far back both STEREO A & B have orbited toward the backside of the sun here we can see where they are [link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] It is always harder to remember that it is the CME we watch not the flare size but man this CME is a biggie. Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:03 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | we are now having a S2 solar radiation storm ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu Begin Time: 2013 May 22 1520 UTC NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures. Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible. Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies S2 solar radiation storm scale [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] Solar proton event A solar proton event (or proton storm) occurs when protons emitted by the Sun become accelerated to very high energies either close to the Sun during a solar flare or in interplanetary space by the shocks associated with coronal mass ejections. Besides protons, the events can include other nuclei like helium ions and HZE ions, meaning that the event is sometimes a solar particle event. These high energy protons and ions cause several effects. They can penetrate the Earth's magnetic field and cause ionization in the ionosphere. The effect is similar to auroral events, the difference being that electrons and not protons are involved. Energetic solar protons are also a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and especially astronauts, who can receive large amounts of absorbed dose from the ionizing radiation [link to en.wikipedia.org] Large solar proton event explains 774-775 CE carbon-14 increase Mar 15, 2013 Tree ring records indicate that in 774-775 CE, atmospheric carbon-14 levels increased substantially. Researchers suggest that a solar proton event may have been the cause. In solar proton events, large numbers of high-energy protons are emitted from the Sun, along with other particles. If these particles reach Earth's atmosphere, they ionize the atmosphere and induce nuclear reactions that produce higher levels of carbon-14; the particles also cause chemical reactions that result in depletion of ozone in the ozone layer, allowing harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the ground. [link to phys.org] Did A Massive Solar Proton Event Fry The Earth? [link to www.spacedaily.com] THIS is why we watch for CMEs more than we should be the flares!!!! With this proton particle event going on, knowing what it causes from reading what I posted above, NOW is when we should be watching super duper close for a large flare.. that if it ordure's NOW, would effect us a great deal more than it normally would Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/22/2013 02:08 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
psyoptics User ID: 2029623 United States 05/22/2013 02:15 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:20 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Quoting: psyoptics Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs the density is determined by what we see on the readings the spikes and rises show us just how dense this CME is/was this one is quite dence and it is one reason we are seeing these spikes and rises on the monitors (posted above) Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
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whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 02:21 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Quoting: psyoptics Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs Speed and density; as in the faster it is moving the worse it would be, especially if it is dense, right?? Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 02:22 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Quoting: psyoptics Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs the density is determined by what we see on the readings the spikes and rises show us just how dense this CME is/was this one is quite dense and it is one reason we are seeing these spikes and rises on the monitors (posted above) So others also understand, this makes this morning event a much bigger deal than the 4 X-flares we just had. Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:25 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Quoting: psyoptics Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs Speed and density; as in the faster it is moving the worse it would be, especially if it is dense, right?? yes :) speed, density and direction same as the difference of a volvo going 25mph hitting the edge of a house, and the damage that would cause Compared to a semi going 100mph hitting that same house head on Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
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NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:26 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | The CME seems to be slow moving Quoting: psyoptics Any idea on it's density? If it was going to hit in say 18 hours or so that would not be good Also remember size yes.... But speed and density are what really matter with the CMEs the density is determined by what we see on the readings the spikes and rises show us just how dense this CME is/was this one is quite dense and it is one reason we are seeing these spikes and rises on the monitors (posted above) So others also understand, this makes this morning event a much bigger deal than the 4 X-flares we just had. bingo! :) flares get all the glory but CMEs are what we should be watching closer for a CME is what causes the damage, the protons from it, the particles hitting Earth and us humans and all that is on earth Last Edited by NiNzrez on 05/22/2013 02:27 PM Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 02:33 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | It is something we need to continue to monitor for a little while to see just how much it will affect Earth. Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:37 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | everyone watch for a large flare event now! cause if there is one, it will flow almost directly in! because of this particle event if there is, lets say a M5 flare NOW, it would be equivalent to like a X20 hitting (no way to be exact, but you get the idea) because this proton event lowers the shields (read the articles I posted above) and the protons are still rising, and should continue to rise through at least the next 12hrs. we could be looking at a S3 SEP event to hard to tell just yet, now its a waiting game, and a lot of monitoring of the solar sensor readings we have Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
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pinkshirtguy User ID: 1424618 United States 05/22/2013 02:41 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | everyone watch for a large flare event now! cause if there is one, it will flow almost directly in! because of this particle event Quoting: NiNzrez if there is, lets say a M5 flare NOW, it would be equivalent to like a X20 hitting (no way to be exact, but you get the idea) because this proton event lowers the shields (read the articles I posted above) and the protons are still rising, and should continue to rise through at least the next 12hrs. we could be looking at a S3 SEP event to hard to tell just yet, now its a waiting game, and a lot of monitoring of the solar sensor readings we have lazy question NIN- are all the sites you look at listed in your first post of this thread? poyl |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:50 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | everyone watch for a large flare event now! cause if there is one, it will flow almost directly in! because of this particle event Quoting: NiNzrez if there is, lets say a M5 flare NOW, it would be equivalent to like a X20 hitting (no way to be exact, but you get the idea) because this proton event lowers the shields (read the articles I posted above) and the protons are still rising, and should continue to rise through at least the next 12hrs. we could be looking at a S3 SEP event to hard to tell just yet, now its a waiting game, and a lot of monitoring of the solar sensor readings we have lazy question NIN- are all the sites you look at listed in your first post of this thread? some are, but we do have a nice compiled list of all the basic monitoring sites on our blog here is the direct link :) [link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 02:55 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
VAK User ID: 40160331 United States 05/22/2013 02:56 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | everyone watch for a large flare event now! cause if there is one, it will flow almost directly in! because of this particle event Quoting: NiNzrez if there is, lets say a M5 flare NOW, it would be equivalent to like a X20 hitting (no way to be exact, but you get the idea) because this proton event lowers the shields (read the articles I posted above) and the protons are still rising, and should continue to rise through at least the next 12hrs. we could be looking at a S3 SEP event to hard to tell just yet, now its a waiting game, and a lot of monitoring of the solar sensor readings we have howdy |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 02:59 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | protons at GOES are spiking pretty hard... Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time Whoa on the 2003. This the same time that there was the power grid failure in CAnada? Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
Anonymous Coward User ID: 16845676 United States 05/22/2013 03:02 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | protons at GOES are spiking pretty hard... Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time S4 event??all I know is this is bigger than Nasa is reporting , or something did go wrong |
psyoptics User ID: 36524580 United States 05/22/2013 03:04 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | everyone watch for a large flare event now! cause if there is one, it will flow almost directly in! because of this particle event Quoting: NiNzrez if there is, lets say a M5 flare NOW, it would be equivalent to like a X20 hitting (no way to be exact, but you get the idea) because this proton event lowers the shields (read the articles I posted above) and the protons are still rising, and should continue to rise through at least the next 12hrs. we could be looking at a S3 SEP event to hard to tell just yet, now its a waiting game, and a lot of monitoring of the solar sensor readings we have Yes last year we had 3 CMEs back to back and I think the latter was fast moving and Merged into the the first ones. a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants. |
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NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 03:17 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | protons at GOES are spiking pretty hard... Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time S4 event??all I know is this is bigger than Nasa is reporting , or something did go wrong what is it that you think is bigger than reported? not the flare, cause the proton event is from the CME you know better than a lot of people that we see CMEs with no flare at all and some of those CMEs cause quite big events the flare happened as reported and is over with all we are seeing now is from the CME that was associated with the flare maybe I have missed report? but I don't see any nasa reports as of yet on this CME Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
whiteangel also known at WA User ID: 1775746 United States 05/22/2013 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | protons at GOES are spiking pretty hard... Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time S4 event??all I know is this is bigger than Nasa is reporting , or something did go wrong No hon. Look at the date. Ninz was showing the S4-5 event from back in 2003 Isaiah 5:20 KJV Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter! Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 03:19 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | SOLAR WIND: A stream of solar wind blowing from a southern coronal hole on the sun is expected to brush past Earth's magnetic field on May 23-24. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance that the contact will spark polar geomagnetic storms [link to spaceweather.com] this CH wind will be arriving just before the CME from todays event, paving the path so to speak because of this, I would expect this CME to cause a bit more of a stir on earths magnetosphere than it would have otherwise Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |
NiNzrez (OP) User ID: 28232082 United States 05/22/2013 03:24 PM Report Abusive Post Report Copyright Violation | protons at GOES are spiking pretty hard... Quoting: NiNzrez [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov] who wants to take bets that we may even see a S4 event?? we 'usually' see the protons rise for at least 24hrs after an event see here for the last event we had just days back [link to sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net] here is a image of the proton flux from a S4+ into a S5 proton event that we had back in 2003 [link to sidc.oma.be] this gives a good idea on how high and fast the proton level can rise and over what period of time Whoa on the 2003. This the same time that there was the power grid failure in CAnada? March 13, 1989 [link to en.wikipedia.org] [link to www.nasa.gov] here are the readings for March 1989 [link to ars.els-cdn.com] Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread Thread: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily) |