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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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06/28/2013 05:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry. Couldn't resist...

[link to www.solarham.net]

TooDamnHigh

Last Edited by #Geomagnetic_Storm# on 06/28/2013 05:50 PM
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Sorry. Couldn't resist...

[link to www.solarham.net]

TooDamnHigh
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


They never get old Geo

mtnmng

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 06/28/2013 08:44 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.solarham.net]


We got some new players that just developed earth facing.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs.

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Stormin'

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 721
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0005 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 28 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Last Edited by madajs. on 06/28/2013 08:46 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Comet??


Filament Eruption



shadasonic

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06/28/2013 09:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Look at that big bald spot coming our way
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Da fuq

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Thought I noticed something





I hope everyone is doing well tonight.

hf

Last Edited by Da fuq on 06/28/2013 10:02 PM
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Thought I noticed something





I hope everyone is doing well tonight.

hf
 Quoting: Da fuq



Temps have dropped, going to be 74 deg. tomorrow, and my tomatoes and peppers are kicking it in the garden, doing well, hope you are too, my friend!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs.

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06/28/2013 10:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh Nelly things are cookin!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 310
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0237 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic

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06/28/2013 11:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh Nelly things are cookin!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 310
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0237 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

 Quoting: madajs.




Yes they are, nice to see you M!
always enjoy your input.

Coronal holes provide excellent energy!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Da fuq

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]



spock
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 12:19 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh Nelly things are cookin!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 310
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0237 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

 Quoting: madajs.




Yes they are, nice to see you M!
always enjoy your input.

Coronal holes provide excellent energy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Very surprising! A slow-speed, low-density storm....most unusual, but not unprecedented.

ACE MAG-SWEPAM:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer at K=7:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SW_MF simulation:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Be alert for Auroras.
wtf
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Comet??


Filament Eruption




 Quoting: Dettro


WHAT??????????That was awesome. I think the comet? one needs a thread of its own.

Last Edited by Isis One on 06/29/2013 12:21 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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06/29/2013 12:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh Nelly things are cookin!

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 310
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0237 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0235 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

 Quoting: madajs.




Yes they are, nice to see you M!
always enjoy your input.

Coronal holes provide excellent energy!
 Quoting: shadasonic


Very surprising! A slow-speed, low-density storm....most unusual, but not unprecedented.

ACE MAG-SWEPAM:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Boulder Magnetometer at K=7:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Geomagnetic Indices:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SW_MF simulation:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Be alert for Auroras.
wtf
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thank you for the analysis Hugh, I knew this one felt different, Da and I were just discussing it on my Sun Thread.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Da fuq

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Odd, but i think the spike is the reason for this strongish storm under lighter conditions.


I don't know where the proton spike comes from.

Last Edited by Da fuq on 06/29/2013 12:28 AM
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Odd, but i think the spike is the reason for this strongish storm under lighter conditions.


I don't know where the proton spike comes from.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Maybe there was/is interaction with the gamma ray bursts. Like the field lines are supercharged.

Last Edited by Isis One on 06/29/2013 12:44 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Da fuq

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06/29/2013 12:47 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Odd, but i think the spike is the reason for this strongish storm under lighter conditions.


I don't know where the proton spike comes from.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Maybe there was/is interaction with the gamma ray bursts. Like the field lines are supercharged.
 Quoting: Isis One


Our entire solar system is supercharged right now, I think it will only increase.

I think it is part of the reason ISON is able to be as big and bright as it is even when it was well beyond Jupiter. According to NASA's model comets are supposed to out-gas, glow and form large tails the closer proximity to the sun.



I'm not even quite sure yet what to call ISON, a super Comet?

Last Edited by Da fuq on 06/29/2013 12:54 AM
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 01:15 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Odd, but i think the spike is the reason for this strongish storm under lighter conditions.


I don't know where the proton spike comes from.
 Quoting: Da fuq


Howdy, not sure about that one blip, but it could be bad data or an anomaly with the detector. Overall, a look at the 7-day EPAM shows levels were higher a few days ago, then dipped, and are now returning to previous levels. Sometimes the 2-hour or 6-hour plots can be misleading. It's good to step back and look at the longer range views sometimes.

ACE EPAM 7-Day plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Likewise, the 3-Day Mag-field shows that the Bz's long dip southward is most likely responsible for the geo-magnetic storming. When the Bz stays South, the solar wind energy just streams past the magnetosphere and connects near the Earth's poles. Had the predicted 800 km/s speeds materialized we may be seeing Extreme storm levels now, but the CH stream has been surprisingly slow.

ACE 3-Day MAG-SWEPAM plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Kiruna Observatory Magnetometer:

[link to www.irf.se]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Isis One

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06/29/2013 01:25 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Speed, temp and density on the uptick again and Bz is south, might hit Kp 7.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by Isis One on 06/29/2013 01:25 AM
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 01:33 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! The Boulder Magnetometer now at K=7.9 @ 320 nT!!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

arnoldSolarDoom!
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Aurora map North:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Aurora map South:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Ovation Auroral Oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
joinca

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06/29/2013 01:46 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WOW! The Boulder Magnetometer now at K=7.9 @ 320 nT!!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

arnoldSolarDoom!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


hiding
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here we go...

Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 41
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0515 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2013 Jun 29 0515 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Jun 29 1000 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Aurora map North:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Aurora map South:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Ovation Auroral Oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I see.


Thanks Hugh,...you be Johnny on the spot.



Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 02:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Aurora map North:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Aurora map South:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Ovation Auroral Oval:

[link to helios.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I see.


Thanks Hugh,...you be Johnny on the spot.



Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Howdy, Zack! hi Nice to see ya this morning.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 02:13 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Kp=7

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

WING Kp prediction:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Magnetosphere simulation:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

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06/29/2013 03:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Uh-oh....GLP disappeared for me for a while. Anyway, aurora seen in kansas-

[link to spaceweather.com]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 87
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0602 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.

Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This is why I love watchin' this stuff. As soon as you think you know what's going on, something crazy and unexpected happens. I can't wait to see how NOAA explains their way out of this one, haha.
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, Zack! hi Nice to see ya this morning.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hey Hugh,...nice to be here.

Crazy times we find ourselves monitoring these days,...imo.

Again, thanks for sharing your insights here.



Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
Anonymous Coward
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06/29/2013 03:38 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The power went out in a couple rooms in my house and the fusebox isn't helping me at all. Never has happened before, think it's related?
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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06/29/2013 04:08 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Uh-oh....GLP disappeared for me for a while. Anyway, aurora seen in kansas-

[link to spaceweather.com]

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 87
Issue Time: 2013 Jun 29 0602 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2013 Jun 29 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.

Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This is why I love watchin' this stuff. As soon as you think you know what's going on, something crazy and unexpected happens. I can't wait to see how NOAA explains their way out of this one, haha.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Beautiful.

News








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