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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Voluntaryist
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07/02/2013 02:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
An impulsive C7.1 from 1785 is the largest solar x-ray flare we've seen since June 28. AR1785 seems to me to be growing and another spot is coming over the limb nearby, so I expect to see more activity in the south over the next few days.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1785 Growing?-
:7/2-1785:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Now THAT is a sunspot
chorus
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 2159872

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
Looks to be growing rapidly
shadasonic

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07/02/2013 02:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
An impulsive C7.1 from 1785 is the largest solar x-ray flare we've seen since June 28. AR1785 seems to me to be growing and another spot is coming over the limb nearby, so I expect to see more activity in the south over the next few days.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Latest HMI Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

AR1785 Growing?-
:7/2-1785:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Now THAT is a sunspot
chorus
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 2159872

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]
Looks to be growing rapidly
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 2159872


yes it does
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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07/02/2013 02:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
Isis One

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07/02/2013 04:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Kapow!! Is earth to the right or the left in that vid? I'm thinking to the right but not sure.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Voluntaryist
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07/02/2013 04:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Kapow!! Is earth to the right or the left in that vid? I'm thinking to the right but not sure.
 Quoting: Isis One

Soho is looking at the sun from the perspective of earth hf
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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07/02/2013 04:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Boom.



[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2013 04:17 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Kapow!! Is earth to the right or the left in that vid? I'm thinking to the right but not sure.
 Quoting: Isis One

Soho is looking at the sun from the perspective of earth hf
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 2159872


[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
SOHO moves around the Sun in step with the Earth, by slowly orbiting around the First Lagrangian Point (L1), where the combined gravity of the Earth and Sun keep SOHO in an orbit locked to the Earth-Sun line. The L1 point is approximately 1.5 million kilometers away from Earth (about four times the distance of the Moon), in the direction of the Sun. There, SOHO enjoys an uninterrupted view of our daylight star. All previous solar observatories have orbited the Earth, from where their observations were periodically interrupted as our planet `eclipsed' the Sun.
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2013 04:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Satellite disruptus !! groucho
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2013 04:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Something cresting the eastern limb right behind 1785, looks like things are about to get interesting
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2013 04:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
FLASHBACK July 2012-I had to double-check with NIN's flare list for last July because it sounded too extreme for me, too. We did have 20 M-flares from July 4-6 and an X1! WOW. All but 2 M's were from Sunspot 1515.

AR1515, July 4th, 2012-
:4th of July 1515:

X1.1 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 23:08 UTC - Sunspot 1515
Read the full report on this event Here:
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

July 6th total M Flare count = 6
M1.3 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 18:55 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.2 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 13:30 UTC - Sunspot 1520
M1.8 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 10:29 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.5 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 08:23 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.0 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 02:51 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.9 Flare on 7/06/2012 @ 01:40 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 5th total M Flare count = 11
M1.6 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 21:45 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.6 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 20:14 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.2 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 13:18 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M6.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 11:44 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.8 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 10:48 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.3 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 07:45 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 06:58 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M4.7 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 03:36 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.2 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 02:42 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.4 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 01:10 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.1 Flare on 7/05/2012 @ 00:43 UTC - Sunspot 1515

July 4th total M Flare count = 7
M1.2 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 23:55 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M4.6 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 22:09 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M1.8 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 16:39 UTC - Sunspot 1513
- CME produced- ETA: to be announced
M1.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 14:40 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 12:24 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M5.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 09:55 UTC - Sunspot 1515
M2.3 Flare on 7/04/2012 @ 04:37 UTC - Sunspot 1515
alone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Clearly double peaked
Anonymous Coward
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07/02/2013 04:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]


and again..
mtn_mang

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07/02/2013 08:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1400544


shhhhh.... Observe the rules :)
hIndsIght2020
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07/02/2013 08:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Flare.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
mtn_mang

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07/02/2013 08:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dang. We all know so well that these flares peter out once mentioned. I'm starting to like the 3am flares better
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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07/02/2013 08:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: hIndsIght2020


Glp effect kept it at 7.2. Looked at it through my solar telescope and didn't look that impressive from previous flares.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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07/02/2013 08:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dang. We all know so well that these flares peter out once mentioned. I'm starting to like the 3am flares better
 Quoting: mtn_mang


I hate those ones. I want to observe it.
mtn_mang

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07/02/2013 08:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dang. We all know so well that these flares peter out once mentioned. I'm starting to like the 3am flares better
 Quoting: mtn_mang


I hate those ones. I want to observe it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


a watched pot never boils, geo. Lol
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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07/02/2013 08:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dang. We all know so well that these flares peter out once mentioned. I'm starting to like the 3am flares better
 Quoting: mtn_mang


I hate those ones. I want to observe it.
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


a watched pot never boils, geo. Lol
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Oh. That makes sense. Lol
Hugh M Eye

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07/02/2013 08:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The recent C7.2 was NOT from 1785, but from another region at 90 degrees on the limb. Maybe 1785 will respond in kind soon.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
:7/2-C7new:
:7/2-newC7:
:7/2-SAM:
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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07/02/2013 08:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The recent C7.2 was NOT from 1785, but from another region at 90 degrees on the limb. Maybe 1785 will respond in kind soon.

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
:7/2-C7new:
:7/2-newC7:
:7/2-SAM:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks. No wonder it didn't look impressive. I was only able to a small portion of it through my solar telescope. Will watch and wait...
Hugh M Eye

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07/02/2013 09:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
The GOES x-ray flux has been hovering at C1 or better for 90 mins. We just had a C1 (not sure where from) and a C1.8 (from 1780 on the west limb I believe), and the aforementioned C7.2 from an unnumbered region on the east limb. As of this typing Solarsoft has listed none of these events and of course NOAA got the C7.2 all wrong.
[link to www.lmsal.com]

NOAA's Latest 'Discussion'-
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1785 (S11E62), now a F-type spot group,
was the most active region, producing the majority of the low-level
C-class flares observed during the period, including the two largest.
The first was a C7 that occurred at 02/1749 UTC and the second, also a
C7, occurred at 02/2358 UTC
. Limb-foreshortening continued to prevent
detailed analysis of the magnetic structure of this region. As it
rotates more into view, a more accurate magnetic classification should
become attainable. Region 1780 (S11W78) produced some low level C-class
flares, but showed gradual decay during period. A filament eruption was
observed at around 02/0000 UTC via H-alpha from near N16E17. After
detailed analysis, no earth directed CMEs are expected from this event
or any other.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

What Bozos, it only took me 10 minutes to find the source of that second C7 was not 1785 which is at least 15 degrees away from the flare site. And 'foreshortening' didn't stop Agent 66 from correctly noticing a magnetic delta region within 1785 12 hours ago. They're not stupid at NOAA, just lazy and don't give a fuck.

Solarsoft movie of the first C7.1 from 1785 (notice how far from the 2nd C7's location):
[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

AR1785 and Friends-
:7/3-1785+new:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 184 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Jul 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Jul
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1777 S17W93 164 0100 Hsx 06 01 Alpha
1780 S11W78 148 0030 Hrx 04 02 Alpha
1781 N22W57 129 0110 Dsi 09 12 Beta
1783 N07E33 037 0010 Hrx 00 01 Alpha
1784 S14E17 054 0040 Cso 04 05 Beta
1785 S11E62 008 0300 Fho 19 08 Beta
1786 S31E18 054 0030 Cro 02 02 Beta

AR1785 Magnetogram-
:7/3-1785mag:

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 07/02/2013 09:59 PM
shadasonic

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07/02/2013 10:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They're not stupid at NOAA, just lazy and don't give a fuck.

I agree!
I've got a feeling after the last polarity swapping diag., that we may see some serious action soon, a lot of magnetic mingling going on! Something has to release this energy.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
madajs.

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07/02/2013 11:29 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
April and May's sunspot counts of 72.4 and 78 .7 were the highest in 16 months. June, whose sunspot count just got released, disappointed with a paltry count of 52.5

Regardless, the trend is still onward and upward, towards peak #2 [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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07/02/2013 11:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
April and May's sunspot counts of 72.4 and 78 .7 were the highest in 16 months. June, whose sunspot count just got released, disappointed with a paltry count of 52.5

Regardless, the trend is still onward and upward, towards peak #2 [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: madajs.


Thanks for the update, madajs! I think we'll see a few more strong bursts of activity in coming weeks/months.

We just had a C5.4 from AR1780 on the SW limb.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This happens to be exactly where the Earth's magnetic footpoint is currently.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Isis One

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07/03/2013 01:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Finally some SOHO C2 images of that big CME from that filament eruption last night. Watch for CME @ 20:36z (7/1) in this movie:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Kapow!! Is earth to the right or the left in that vid? I'm thinking to the right but not sure.
 Quoting: Isis One

Soho is looking at the sun from the perspective of earth hf
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 2159872


[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]
SOHO moves around the Sun in step with the Earth, by slowly orbiting around the First Lagrangian Point (L1), where the combined gravity of the Earth and Sun keep SOHO in an orbit locked to the Earth-Sun line. The L1 point is approximately 1.5 million kilometers away from Earth (about four times the distance of the Moon), in the direction of the Sun. There, SOHO enjoys an uninterrupted view of our daylight star. All previous solar observatories have orbited the Earth, from where their observations were periodically interrupted as our planet `eclipsed' the Sun.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 2159872


Thank you very much for the info. Can't believe I didn't know that by now.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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07/03/2013 01:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft still has both C 7's coming from 1785????

[link to www.lmsal.com]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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07/03/2013 03:16 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.5

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Solar Guardian

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07/03/2013 03:23 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh M Eye, do you think the current year will end normally? Thanks for replying hf
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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07/03/2013 03:25 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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07/03/2013 05:02 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
April and May's sunspot counts of 72.4 and 78 .7 were the highest in 16 months. June, whose sunspot count just got released, disappointed with a paltry count of 52.5

Regardless, the trend is still onward and upward, towards peak #2 [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
 Quoting: madajs.


Thanks for the update, madajs! I think we'll see a few more strong bursts of activity in coming weeks/months.

We just had a C5.4 from AR1780 on the SW limb.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

This happens to be exactly where the Earth's magnetic footpoint is currently.

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



So if that flare is from AR1780 is it likely we'll get some of that?

Regarding That big flare yesterday that made no Xray emmissions, Will that be put into the Enlil spiral?

It seems to take them forever to put flares in the Enlil spiral and even then I don't trust it at all.

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