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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
optimum judgment

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08/06/2013 08:14 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44682302


lol a bar magnet for the sun's field how silly
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 10:31 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
interesting video on the van allen belt and the sun.


[link to www.youtube.com]
Visit my website at [link to www.junglejoel.com] - this animation uses data from the SAMPEX mission, which monitored Earth's radiation belts during a solar storm in October 2003. The animation shows just how much the outer radiation belt can swell up during extreme conditions. Please rate and comment, thanks!
Credit: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
 Quoting:




and

22 years of Hubble!


[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by psyoptics on 08/06/2013 11:27 AM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 10:39 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

[link to www.youtube.com]

just found this....not the sun but well it's just a nice movie.
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 11:24 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
sometimes we need to admire our ol'SOL from the ground with our own simple eyes!

look at this beauty...take the sun and just add some water.




[link to www.youtube.com]

Last Edited by psyoptics on 08/06/2013 11:24 AM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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08/06/2013 11:40 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44676254


Thanks for posting these, AC. Some insightful info there. The second paper relating to the Maunder Minimum states that the Maunder-era cycles lasted 20 yrs. and only one hemisphere flipped polarity. If this is correct we had many years of a mono-pole sun during the Mini Ice Age.

hiding
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 11:43 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44676254


Thanks for posting these, AC. Some insightful info there. The second paper relating to the Maunder Minimum states that the Maunder-era cycles lasted 20 yrs. and only one hemisphere flipped polarity. If this is correct we had many years of a mono-pole sun during the Mini Ice Age.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

what do you think....does this effect all the other bodies in the solar system?
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Also, NASA's forecast for the pole reversal seems to coincide with timing for Comet C/2012 S1-ISON's approach to the sun late this year. This could make for an interesting side-story as Comet ISON approaches perihelion on November 28th.

[link to waitingforison.wordpress.com]
Hugh M Eye

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08/06/2013 12:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44676254


Thanks for posting these, AC. Some insightful info there. The second paper relating to the Maunder Minimum states that the Maunder-era cycles lasted 20 yrs. and only one hemisphere flipped polarity. If this is correct we had many years of a mono-pole sun during the Mini Ice Age.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

what do you think....does this effect all the other bodies in the solar system?
 Quoting: psyoptics


Do you mean the coming reversal? Yes, almost anything that happens with the sun affects her little children,ie. planets. That being said, I don't expect anything too dramatic or even noticeable; these reversals are cyclical and have happened many, many times. I believe the level of sunspots, CMEs, and large flares have a much bigger effect on the planets in the way of transient spaceweather and solar winds.

I may be wrong, but I think of the magnetic fields as more of a roadway by which the plasma and particles travel on. I personally am more interested in the traffic levels and patterns than on the roadway itself. Of course this silly analogy breaks down when we consider constant morphing of the magnetic fields throughout the cycle and how inter-related they are to the active regions and filament formation, etc.
farside
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
By way of more background, here's the NASA News story from the last reversal in 2001.

"Changes in the Sun's magnetic field are carried outward through the heliosphere by the solar wind," explains Steve Suess, another solar physicist at the Marshall Space Flight Center. "It takes about a year for disturbances to propagate all the way from the Sun to the outer bounds of the heliosphere."

....Because of all the twists and turns, "the impact of the field reversal on the heliosphere is complicated," says Hathaway. Sunspots are sources of intense magnetic knots that spiral outwards even as the dipole field vanishes. The heliosphere doesn't simply wink out of existence when the poles flip -- there are plenty of complex magnetic structures to fill the void.

[link to science.nasa.gov]

Some more links for Solar Polar Field data:

[link to www.leif.org]

[link to www.vukcevic.talktalk.net]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hugh M Eye

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08/06/2013 04:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


I hope you're right, I'm getting bored waiting for a C-flare, haha. All of this speculation of a prolonged maunder-type minimum is depressing me. I'm too old to wait 80 years for the next X10 flare. Of course the sun is full of surprises and we may see something never before seen by mankind....so I'll continue watching as long as I'm able. The next year or two should be very interesting.

EDIT-The poles are supposed to reverse at the peak of solar activity (so they say). Well, we haven't even had ONE C-Flare yet in August....hmmnnnn.

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Angry Gigantor

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 08/06/2013 04:27 PM
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Joke's on me Dept.- As I was boo-hooing about the lack of flares I neglected due diligence in checking all the usual data. Last night there was two nice CMEs (most likely filament eruptions as the x-ray flux is dead). A third large eruption is more recent, but apparently a far-side event.

STEREO Behind cor 2 movie:

[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

The first two CMEs can be seen on SDO and SOHO (choose a 1:30 to 04:00 time and the 304 wavelength on the SDO 'browse data')

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

CME #1 in the NE-CACTus movie:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

CME #2 very slow, but huge southern crown filament-CACTus movie:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Wow, even NOAA caught these....my skills must be slipping, hehe-

Two disappearing filaments were observed in
SDO and GONG H-Alpha imagery.
The first, located near S72W13, appeared
to rapidly depart the disk at approximately 06/0122 UTC. The second, a
6° filament located near N25E30, lifted off the disk at approximately
06/0150 UTC. A large prominence also erupted from the southwestern limb
at approximately 06/0220 UTC. Analysis is ongoing to determine whether
or not the coronal mass ejections associated with the filaments have any
Earthward component.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GONG H-alpha movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
arnoldSolarDoom!
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 06:10 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44676254


Thanks for posting these, AC. Some insightful info there. The second paper relating to the Maunder Minimum states that the Maunder-era cycles lasted 20 yrs. and only one hemisphere flipped polarity. If this is correct we had many years of a mono-pole sun during the Mini Ice Age.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

what do you think....does this effect all the other bodies in the solar system?
 Quoting: psyoptics


Do you mean the coming reversal? Yes, almost anything that happens with the sun affects her little children,ie. planets. That being said, I don't expect anything too dramatic or even noticeable; these reversals are cyclical and have happened many, many times. I believe the level of sunspots, CMEs, and large flares have a much bigger effect on the planets in the way of transient spaceweather and solar winds.

I may be wrong, but I think of the magnetic fields as more of a roadway by which the plasma and particles travel on. I personally am more interested in the traffic levels and patterns than on the roadway itself. Of course this silly analogy breaks down when we consider constant morphing of the magnetic fields throughout the cycle and how inter-related they are to the active regions and filament formation, etc.
farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wondering about the Maunder Minimum....
if we get cold everything gets cold.

so if things are effecting earth...then the weather on Jupiter and Saturn will be effected.
we are seeing this....i have read a lot about things being off with the outer planet's weather.

connect this to our weather here on earth.

Last Edited by psyoptics on 08/06/2013 06:11 PM
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
shadasonic

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08/06/2013 08:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Also, NASA's forecast for the pole reversal seems to coincide with timing for Comet C/2012 S1-ISON's approach to the sun late this year. This could make for an interesting side-story as Comet ISON approaches perihelion on November 28th.

[link to waitingforison.wordpress.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was wondering if it was going to be close, it would make things very interesting to have the most famous sungrazer coming along during the magnetic high mingling point.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
...


Thanks for posting these, AC. Some insightful info there. The second paper relating to the Maunder Minimum states that the Maunder-era cycles lasted 20 yrs. and only one hemisphere flipped polarity. If this is correct we had many years of a mono-pole sun during the Mini Ice Age.

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

what do you think....does this effect all the other bodies in the solar system?
 Quoting: psyoptics


Do you mean the coming reversal? Yes, almost anything that happens with the sun affects her little children,ie. planets. That being said, I don't expect anything too dramatic or even noticeable; these reversals are cyclical and have happened many, many times. I believe the level of sunspots, CMEs, and large flares have a much bigger effect on the planets in the way of transient spaceweather and solar winds.

I may be wrong, but I think of the magnetic fields as more of a roadway by which the plasma and particles travel on. I personally am more interested in the traffic levels and patterns than on the roadway itself. Of course this silly analogy breaks down when we consider constant morphing of the magnetic fields throughout the cycle and how inter-related they are to the active regions and filament formation, etc.
farside
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


wondering about the Maunder Minimum....
if we get cold everything gets cold.

so if things are effecting earth...then the weather on Jupiter and Saturn will be effected.
we are seeing this....i have read a lot about things being off with the outer planet's weather.

connect this to our weather here on earth.
 Quoting: psyoptics


My gut feeling tells me that solar activity output is the main driver of climate and weather throughout the solar system. Of course we have no pics or data from Jupiter, Mars, or Saturn from 1650 A.D., but we do know that Earth cooled significantly with the dropoff in sunspots. Again, over the past 30-50 years when solar activity was very high we've seen Earth begin to warm up a bit. We really don't have enough data on weather patterns elsewhere in the solar system but our probes and telescopes have seen evidence of warming and storming on other worlds in recent years.

First of all, we have to keep in mind that the weather prediction services are often wrong about their 3-day forecasts here in the US (even with GOES, NEXRAD, Doppler, etc.). Secondly, we have to realize that each planet has a different axial tilt, rotation speed, cloud chemistry and length of year to consider. For instance, Saturn has a year lasting almost 30 Earth years; do we really have enough data to know if this is a cold year there or a hot one? Are the winds stronger than normal or weaker? What IS 'normal'?

I find it fascinating to observe and read about discoveries of crazy storms on Jupiter and what-have-you, but we are far too ignorant to compare these complex other-worldly events to Earth. But, yes, in short, the sun ultimately drives them all.

A Year on Saturn:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Jupiter:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Mars:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Neptune has only circled the sun once since its discovery:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Uranus:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

1 Day on Venus is longer than a year:

[link to www.universetoday.com]

Mercury:
[link to www.universetoday.com]
psyoptics

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08/06/2013 09:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
My gut feeling tells me that solar activity output is the main driver of climate and weather throughout the solar system. Of course we have no pics or data from Jupiter, Mars, or Saturn from 1650 A.D., but we do know that Earth cooled significantly with the dropoff in sunspots. Again, over the past 30-50 years when solar activity was very high we've seen Earth begin to warm up a bit. We really don't have enough data on weather patterns elsewhere in the solar system but our probes and telescopes have seen evidence of warming and storming on other worlds in recent years.

First of all, we have to keep in mind that the weather prediction services are often wrong about their 3-day forecasts here in the US (even with GOES, NEXRAD, Doppler, etc.). Secondly, we have to realize that each planet has a different axial tilt, rotation speed, cloud chemistry and length of year to consider. For instance, Saturn has a year lasting almost 30 Earth years; do we really have enough data to know if this is a cold year there or a hot one? Are the winds stronger than normal or weaker? What IS 'normal'?

I find it fascinating to observe and read about discoveries of crazy storms on Jupiter and what-have-you, but we are far too ignorant to compare these complex other-worldly events to Earth. But, yes, in short, the sun ultimately drives them all.

A Year on Saturn:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Jupiter:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Mars:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Neptune has only circled the sun once since its discovery:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

Uranus:
[link to www.universetoday.com]

1 Day on Venus is longer than a year:

[link to www.universetoday.com]

Mercury:
[link to www.universetoday.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


so here we sit.
waiting and watching...
popcorn
a good video editor can make anyone say anything the editor wants.
Hugh M Eye

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08/06/2013 10:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I've waited patiently for many hours for NOAA SWPC to finish their "further analysis" of yesterday's CMEs. Well, they haven't updated doodly-squat....must be one of those frequent marijuana holidays there in Boulder, haha.
altcdnflag

:Issued: 2013 Aug 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. A Type II radio sweep (est 1411 km/s)
occurred at approximately 06/0152 UTC. Two disappearing filaments were
observed in SDO and GONG H-Alpha imagery. The first, located near
S72W13, appeared to rapidly depart the disk at approximately 06/0122
UTC. The second, a 6° filament located near N25E30, lifted off the disk
at approximately 06/0150 UTC. A large prominence also erupted from the
southwestern limb at approximately 06/0220 UTC. Analysis is ongoing to
determine whether or not the coronal mass ejections associated with the
filaments have any Earthward component.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

A belated radio emission alert was also issued-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 863
Issue Time: 2013 Aug 06 0812 UTC

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2013 Aug 06 0156 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1411 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection
is associated with a flare event.

Another coronal hole hi-speed stream is expected today-

Solar Wind Forecast...
Solar wind speed is expected to remain greater than 400km/s until late
on day one (07 Aug) as a result of continued CH HSS influence. Speeds
should increase to near 600 km/s midday on day 2 (08 Aug), after a
transition from positive to negative polarity as HSS effects from a
second coronal hole begin. HSS effects should persist into day 3 (9
August).


Additionally, two active regions coming over the east limb appear to be very weak at this time....the flare-drought continues.

Latest HMI Intensitygram:

[link to jsoc.stanford.edu]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 08/06/2013 10:09 PM
Isis One

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08/06/2013 11:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Looks like those solar magnetic pole reversal "sheets" jiggied up the atmosphere today.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


:hiyasmiley: Wow
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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08/06/2013 11:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


:hiyasmiley: Wow
 Quoting: Isis One


You about ready ISis?
Isis One

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08/07/2013 12:53 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


:hiyasmiley: Wow
 Quoting: Isis One


You about ready ISis?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551



Ohyeah
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide
[link to www.godlikeproductions.com]
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2013 01:09 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
[link to stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look what we got turnin in, I think this shit storm is about to kick off in full.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551


:hiyasmiley: Wow
 Quoting: Isis One


You about ready ISis?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 32031551



Ohyeah
 Quoting: Isis One


Been at a low energy state for so long now, I don't know what i'm going to do first.
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2013 04:24 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ALERT: !!!



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] from behind



from ahead
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]


look the 1st here's mirror of 07:39:48 [ [link to i.minus.com] ]
...
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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08/07/2013 04:29 AM

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ALERT: !!!



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] from behind



from ahead
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]


look the 1st here's mirror of 07:39:48 [ [link to i.minus.com] ]
...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36123586


I don't see anything. What am I missing?
Geoshill


Link to my Gaming Channel….
[link to m.youtube.com (secure)]
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2013 06:51 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
ALERT: !!!



[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov] from behind



from ahead
[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]


look the 1st here's mirror of 07:39:48 [ [link to i.minus.com] ]
...
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 36123586


I don't see anything. What am I missing?
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


1dunno1
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2013 06:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
something on our way?

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
TS66
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08/07/2013 07:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'd keep an eye on that filament in the SE quadrant

[link to helioviewer.org]
Nerd88

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08/07/2013 08:03 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'd keep an eye on that filament in the SE quadrant

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: TS66 44688130


Heya TS!
applause2
"Stay on the path. It's not your concern. Stay on the path. It's not your concern"...Eli
Anonymous Coward
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08/07/2013 08:21 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
I'd keep an eye on that filament in the SE quadrant

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: TS66 44688130


Heya TS!
applause2
 Quoting: Nerd88


Hey Nerd smile_kiss





GLP