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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2013 10:07 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2013 10:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are we expecting a Carrington event anytime soon?
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 11:48 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Earth-Directed CME. Probably a minor impact.



[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yes indeed, both CMEs are slow, low-density puffs of plasma. Had the eruptions been from an M6 (or even a C6) instead of a B6, we might have real storm coming. The first 'glancing blow' CME may have an CIR or interact with the CH-HSS.

First 'glancing blow' CME:
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

The second 'potential indirect hit' CME from B6 LDE (shown in the NASA cone model):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

NOAA's Geospace Forecast-

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through day one (08 Aug) and most of day two (09 Aug). The combined
effects from the arrival of the forecast glancing blow CME and the
sustained effects of the negative polarity CH are expected to bring
geomagnetic activity up to active levels by the end of day two into day
three (10 Aug). Conditions as high as isolated minor storm levels (NOAA
Scale - G1) are forecast due to the possible magnetic interaction.

Conditions should taper off throughout the day until late in the period
when the second CME is projected to arrive. Conditions are only
anticipated to return to active levels since the CH effects should be
decreasing and CME effects are expected to be weak.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2013 12:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Earth-Directed CME. Probably a minor impact.



[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Yes indeed, both CMEs are slow, low-density puffs of plasma. Had the eruptions been from an M6 (or even a C6) instead of a B6, we might have real storm coming. The first 'glancing blow' CME may have an CIR or interact with the CH-HSS.

First 'glancing blow' CME:
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

The second 'potential indirect hit' CME from B6 LDE (shown in the NASA cone model):

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

NOAA's Geospace Forecast-

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through day one (08 Aug) and most of day two (09 Aug). The combined
effects from the arrival of the forecast glancing blow CME and the
sustained effects of the negative polarity CH are expected to bring
geomagnetic activity up to active levels by the end of day two into day
three (10 Aug). Conditions as high as isolated minor storm levels (NOAA
Scale - G1) are forecast due to the possible magnetic interaction.

Conditions should taper off throughout the day until late in the period
when the second CME is projected to arrive. Conditions are only
anticipated to return to active levels since the CH effects should be
decreasing and CME effects are expected to be weak.


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Come on now hugh, you seen eve light up yesterday. I bet that second cme gives us a kp6/7. They are under reporting space weather the same as earth weather? ya dig?
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2013 01:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to citizenperth.com]


[link to citizenperth.com] polar view.


Wonder what's hammering mars.



blahblah
Da fuq
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08/08/2013 01:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)



This is Pattie Brassard, her credentials blow mine and anyone on this forums ass out of the water.


Use discernment.




Here is a page to her photobucket of the images she got when she remote control took over an observatory.



[link to s1280.photobucket.com]

Look in sky views.






I love you all, even geostorm.
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 03:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another filament channel eruption in the same location as yesterday's (AR1810). It's uncanny how the sun times these when the STEREO coronagraphs go offline...maybe ol' Sol is sentient and has a twisted sense of humor, hehe.

GONG Big Bear movie:

[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Hopefully SOHO will tell us if there's another Earth-'indirect'-directed CME component.

Just a few degrees to the north of 1810, new AR1813 has already been upgraded to beta-gamma. These two regions appear to me to be electro-magnetically connected.

NOAA 24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. There were seven numbered regions on the
disk. Region 1813 (S13W15, Dao/Beta-gamma) was the only region that
showed significant changes
. While the overall area remained the same,
magnetic complexity went from a simple beta to a beta-gamma
. The other
regions were unremarkable. A new coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed at ~07/1900 UTC in SOHO LASCO C2 and initially appears to have
an asymmetric partial halo signature with a bias to the south. This
event is believed to be associated with a filament eruption, when an ~10
degree filament lifted at around 07/1700 UTC from near S22W14. A long
duration B3 x-ray flare was also observed from Region 1810 (S25W20)
during that time frame. Initial analysis indicated a potential indirect
hit late on 10 Aug. Further analysis will be accomplished to narrow down
timing of arrival.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Latest HMI Color Magnetogram:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 03:43 PM
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This is Pattie Brassard, her credentials blow mine and anyone on this forums ass out of the water.


Use discernment.




Here is a page to her photobucket of the images she got when she remote control took over an observatory.



[link to s1280.photobucket.com]

Look in sky views.






I love you all, even geostorm.
 Quoting: Da fuq 32031551


Howdy, Da! Can you give us a summary or elucidate your reasonings. I don't know when I'll find time to delve into this video. Perhaps you could explain the photos a bit for us...jes' sayin'.

Credentials don't mean a whole lot in this field, just witness the chimps at NOAA.

Anyways, it nice to see ya posting, Sol Man.
peace
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WEAKEST SOLAR CYCLE IN 100 YEARS-

What’s even weirder is that scientists, who aren’t usually shy about tossing hypotheses about, are at a loss for a good explanation. Three scientists, David Hathaway (NASA / Marshall Space Flight Center), Giuliana de Toma (High Altitude Observatory), and Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory) presented possible explanations at this month’s meeting of the American Astronomical Society’s Solar Physics Division, but their results sparked a lively debate rather than a scientific consensus. (snip)

A Weak and Weird Cycle

Doug Biesecker (NOAA), chair of the most recent prediction panel, says, “I remain highly skeptical . . . [Even] if you believe there is a 100-year cycle, then that still doesn't tell us why. Just that it is.”

Penn offered another, more catastrophic option: the sunspot cycle might die altogether. His team uses sunspot spectra to measure their magnetic fields, and his data show a clear trend: the magnetic field strength in sunspots is waning.


Penn's research shows that sunspots' magnetic field strength is declining over time. Sunspots can only form if the magnetic field is greater than around 1,500 Gauss, so if the trend continues, we could be headed for a time where no spots appear on the Sun's surface.

“If this trend continues, there will be almost no spots in Cycle 25, and we might be going into another Maunder Minimum,” Penn states. The first Maunder Minimum occurred during the second half of the 17th century. Almost no spots were seen on the Sun during this time, which coincided with Europe’s Little Ice Age.

more of a very good article here:
[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

No news to GLP SOLAR WATCHers, but...
2013 Solar Activity Weak and Disappointing-

[link to www.scienceworldreport.com]

Not only a solar flare shortage, but ACE News is reporting a ...

Deficit of Suprathermal 3He in Solar Cycle 24

Apparently due to a lack of SEP events, I shan't go beyond my pay-grade here; but I report you decipher, haha.

[link to www.srl.caltech.edu]

Time to invest in wood stoves and thermal underwear?
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Another mid-B class LDE eruption at 1810 today-
:8/8-EVE:

Strange dark blobs of filament seem to connect 1810 to 1813-
:8/8-strangeblobs:
:8/8-weirdstuff:

No signs of a CME yet.
madajs.

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08/08/2013 05:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
more of a very good article here:
[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Interesting article. I do think there are some points to debate though, for example the article refers to the maximum having come and gone, and using the numbers already registered to compare to previous cycles.

Models indicate that the sunspot maximum is yet to occur [link to www.sidc.oma.be] (and the poles certainly haven't flipped yet) so the numbers may not end up being as below average as they seem thus far. The point being, much of the story is still yet to be written. We'll have to wait and see how it unfolds!

popcorn

Last Edited by madajs. on 08/08/2013 05:19 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More strangeness from NASA...

Goddard has issued two different CME arrival forecasts. The first one lists 'Disturbance Duration' at an astounding 35 hours! The second says '0' hours....wtf?

Event Issue Date: 2013-08-07 23:30:37.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-08-10 21:49:49.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 35 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.1 Re

Event Issue Date: 2013-08-08 09:31:03.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-08-11 03:43:25.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 0 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.1 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Are these divergent forecasts for the same CME? They give no indication. NOAA has already forecast the arrival of an earlier CME late on the 9th. Are they deliberately putting out confusing and contradictory predictions? Or is this just the typical incompetence we've come to expect from our bloated bureaucratic alphabet-soup agencies?

NOAA's updated ENLIL model shows two CMEs and a double-humped density graph. We may be in for a stormy weekend, especially if the Bz tips south.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'd keep an eye on that filament in the SE quadrant

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: TS66 44688130
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 08:27 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'd keep an eye on that filament in the SE quadrant

[link to helioviewer.org]
 Quoting: TS66 44688130

 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 44688130


Hello Dearest66hf, it's a biggie and I'm tryin' to keep an eye on it. If it lifts off suddenly we might even see a C1 x-ray flare from it.
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

Here's a riddle for ya...

Q: Hey, now what's for dinner?

A: Well, we got an Earth sandwich on two slices of CME....mmm...mmm...tasty.

:cme sandwich:
tomato
shadasonic

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08/08/2013 08:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rare hi-speed movie of sprites (ionospheric lightning):

[link to www.flickr.com]

Article from spaceweather.com:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on sprites:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

[link to elf.gi.alaska.edu]

lflashalone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



telion




SPRITES,PLASMA CURRENTS, and TELLURIC CURRENTS

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 08/08/2013 08:49 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 09:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
As I suspected, another weak CME from today's B4 LDE eruption. From what I can see on SOHO, this one seems even weaker than the others. That being said, the slow, pumping of solar plasma in Earth's direction could give us some sustained turbulent spaceweather...or not, hehe.

NOAA Update-

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. There were seven numbered regions on the
disk. Region 1813 (S13W15, Dao/Beta-gamma) was the only region that
showed significant changes, now a beta-gamma. All other regions were
unremarkable or in decay. A coronal mass ejection (CME), the third
within the past 48 hours, was observed at ~08/1800 UTC and associated
with a another filament eruption from near Region 1810 (S25W32), a very
similar transient to the 07 August event. Further analysis to determine
potential geoeffectiveness of this third event will commence once more
data becomes available.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

SOHO C2 movie shows yesterday's CME (looks nearly full-halo to me) and ends with the newest CME:

[link to sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov]

Now if we had a nice M-flare behind all of these weak flows we could get a real kick-in-the-pants. But as it stands, the x-ray flux is still comatose and most sunspots are in decay. Maybe 66's filament will give us a shock soon.
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 09:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rare hi-speed movie of sprites (ionospheric lightning):

[link to www.flickr.com]

Article from spaceweather.com:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on sprites:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

[link to elf.gi.alaska.edu]

lflashalone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



telion




SPRITES,PLASMA CURRENTS, and TELLURIC CURRENTS
 Quoting: shadasonic


Howdy, Shad, nice old-school graphics there. I'll have to look into that 'plasma fountain'. Hope everything is well with you, amigo.

Oh, I have some good news--the SEEDS website is back online but no new data posted there yet.
Hugh M Eye

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08/08/2013 09:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
More strangeness from NASA...

Goddard has issued two different CME arrival forecasts. The first one lists 'Disturbance Duration' at an astounding 35 hours! The second says '0' hours....wtf?

Event Issue Date: 2013-08-07 23:30:37.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-08-10 21:49:49.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 35 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.1 Re

Event Issue Date: 2013-08-08 09:31:03.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-08-11 03:43:25.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 0 hours

Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.1 Re
[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Are these divergent forecasts for the same CME? They give no indication. NOAA has already forecast the arrival of an earlier CME late on the 9th. Are they deliberately putting out confusing and contradictory predictions? Or is this just the typical incompetence we've come to expect from our bloated bureaucratic alphabet-soup agencies?

NOAA's updated ENLIL model shows two CMEs and a double-humped density graph. We may be in for a stormy weekend, especially if the Bz tips south.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Just to add to the mess, uh, I mean mix, Belgium's SIDC forecasts this CME arrival on the 12th....24 hours later than NASA/NOAAs's prediction.

COMMENT:There are currently 7 AR's on the solar disk. There was no flaring
above
C-class level, however a long duration B-flare (peak B6.3) from AR NOAA
1810 (Catania 56) resulted in a CME with an angular width of about 120
degrees and a speed of about 350 km/s as seen in LASCO C2 around 18:30 UT
on August 7th. Although this CME is mostly south bound a glancing blow is
likely. The estimated arrival time of this CME is August 12th around 02:30
UT.

[link to sidc.oma.be]

Anybody else wanna take a guess? Maybe NINz can hold a contest, lol.
shadasonic

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08/08/2013 09:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Rare hi-speed movie of sprites (ionospheric lightning):

[link to www.flickr.com]

Article from spaceweather.com:

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

More on sprites:

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

[link to elf.gi.alaska.edu]

lflashalone
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye



telion




SPRITES,PLASMA CURRENTS, and TELLURIC CURRENTS
 Quoting: shadasonic


Howdy, Shad, nice old-school graphics there. I'll have to look into that 'plasma fountain'. Hope everything is well with you, amigo.

Oh, I have some good news--the SEEDS website is back online but no new data posted there yet.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thought that was a fun term, plasma fountain.
That is good news and hoping you are good as well.
I'm ready to get into some solar renewal as I've got some renewed energy myself, been in a funk for awhile
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
shadasonic

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going to say early the 13th, I've never been close to right .LOL



I am going to predict that our new southeast developing region 1814 is going to set off that thick filament in 3 days.( it will need to develop)
[link to www.solarham.net]

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 08/08/2013 09:52 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going to say early the 13th, I've never been close to right .LOL



I am going to predict that our new southeast developing region 1814 is going to set off that thick filament in 3 days.( it will need to develop)
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: shadasonic


They looked quite slow to me, but I think it's somewhat illusory when it's coming straight at you (as on SOHO images). I'll go with NASA Goddard's 2nd prediction, I think it was 3:00 on the 11th; keeping in mind we usually wait for an extra 4-8 hours, haha. What may be interesting is the interaction between the CH winds mingling with 2 or 3 successive CMEs. Any gaps in the magnetosphere or a south Bz and we may see some satellite charging.

It's been so dull lately that 2 CMEs seems exciting, but these weren't CMEs like these babys....
dabigone
GigantorCME
5/22-fastCME
shadasonic

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08/08/2013 11:26 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going to say early the 13th, I've never been close to right .LOL



I am going to predict that our new southeast developing region 1814 is going to set off that thick filament in 3 days.( it will need to develop)
[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: shadasonic


They looked quite slow to me, but I think it's somewhat illusory when it's coming straight at you (as on SOHO images). I'll go with NASA Goddard's 2nd prediction, I think it was 3:00 on the 11th; keeping in mind we usually wait for an extra 4-8 hours, haha. What may be interesting is the interaction between the CH winds mingling with 2 or 3 successive CMEs. Any gaps in the magnetosphere or a south Bz and we may see some satellite charging.

It's been so dull lately that 2 CMEs seems exciting, but these weren't CMEs like these babys....
dabigone
GigantorCME
5/22-fastCME
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Hopefully that isn't what we end up calling the good old days.LOL

Great work Hugh!

Good night TS!, if you're out there

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 08/08/2013 11:26 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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08/08/2013 11:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Are we expecting a Carrington event anytime soon?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 41137204


No, there is no way to predict. Recently, MSM tried to stir up some gratuitous fear about this type of event, not sure what their agenda is.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Luisport

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08/09/2013 06:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Austria and Slovenia Set All-time Heat Records; Record Heat in Shanghai, China!!!
TS66
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08/09/2013 08:34 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thanks Shada, and a good morning all hf

As usual ENLIL predicts the greatest density of these "sandwich" CMEs (LOL Hugh) to the right, left, and just beyond us wink

Could get interesting 1dunno1


In regard to the LDE B flare: (for all those wating for an "X-Flare", great example of FLARE VS CME size wouldn't you say ??)

From SIDC

Although this CME is mostly south bound a glancing blow is
likely. The estimated arrival time of this CME is August 12th around 02:30 UT.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

Which should coincide nicely with the Perseid Meteor showers Sunday Night

[link to www.accuweather.com]

So either way the dark hours of the 11-12 will be a good sky viewing night.




Side note : Asteroid 2013 PS13 made it's closest approach at .5 LD at 03:53:48 UTC. Either they have lost their ability to see these Near Earth events coming in, in a timely fashion, or they are no longer interested in giving us a heads up.
joinca

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08/09/2013 11:54 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning to all...I am always lurking.
Looming weak solar max may herald frosty times
The sun is currently at the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, but as this graph shows, there are far fewer sunspots during this peak than there have been in past cycles (Image credit: Hathaway/NASA/MSFC)
The current solar activity cycle, possibly the weakest in 100 years, is approaching its maximum. This may signal a future low period for the sun, probably not unlike the one that caused the so-called Little Ice Age from the mid-16th to mid-19th centuries.
Solar activity can be easily monitored by the number of sun spots. Regular recordings of the phenomenon have been available since the middle of the 18th century, with the star's activity reaching peaks about every 11 years. The current Solar Cycle 24, is about to pass its prime in a matter of months, according to observations.
The full article is here: [link to www.spacedaily.com]
hiding
verycold
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solar wind speeds are increasing today from the latest coronal hole:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA G1 Storm Watch has been increased to 2 days-

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 545
Issue Time: 2013 Aug 08 1834 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 09: None (Below G1) Aug 10: G1 (Minor) Aug 11: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Electron flux alert issued for the 5th consecutive day-

Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2066
Issue Time: 2013 Aug 09 0505 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2065
Begin Time: 2013 Aug 05 1325 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4421 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Electron Flux plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 39479530
United States
08/09/2013 04:37 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WooHoo! Finally a C-flare! The first in almost 10 days! From the East limb I think.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
5a5a5a
Luisport

User ID: 44846545
Portugal
08/09/2013 04:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WooHoo! Finally a C-flare! The first in almost 10 days! From the East limb I think.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

[link to halpha.nso.edu]
5a5a5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


anaanaana
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 44715080
United States
08/09/2013 04:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It would be interesting if this filament sent us a CME in the next couple days.


[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

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