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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Isis One

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08/17/2013 01:38 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Great reading and viewing tonight Sol team. Muse, great question, Hugh, great answer. Also, loved loved loved, the video of the English Scientist demonstrating how he views the sun, that was soooo fun. Cool to know our sun was not born in M86. Interesting that the biggest flares come after solar max. Whiteangel posted a graph of sunspot numbers that I will go find and you can see a little delta flux on the downslope side of each cycle. I was noticing it last night and now we have this explanation today.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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08/17/2013 01:41 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Here is the graph I just mentioned. Notice the little jigger on the downward slope? I love looking at aggregated long-term data!!

1749-2040
[link to www.infiniteunknown.net]

The above ought to tell you just what is coming our way by solar cycle 25. It looks to me like most of our research needs to be focused on what a Grand Minimum will mean to Earth! I would like to know how they are predicting SC25 to be almost flat? This would make it much worse than the Maunder Min., and worse than the "little ice age period".

*snips
Scientists are noticing that the strength of the polar fields when a new cycle begins influences the strength of the cycle, he added. For example, weak polar fields observed in 2008 led to the current weak cycle, while strong polar fields in 1986 spawned a strong Cycle 22.

The polar fields have been slowly reversing at this maximum, Hathaway said, suggesting that they are not going get much stronger during Cycle 24. This also sets the stage for an even smaller maximum during Cycle 25, scientists believe.
[link to www.huffingtonpost.com]

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906. [link to solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: whiteangel

Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 39550582
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08/17/2013 07:14 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
great videos Hugh wishing you all a great weekend hf
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Luisport

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08/17/2013 09:47 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C1.8...

Last Edited by Luisport on 08/17/2013 10:05 AM
optimum judgment

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08/17/2013 10:11 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C1.8...
 Quoting: Luisport


OHHHHH?
Luisport

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08/17/2013 10:12 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C1.8...
 Quoting: Luisport


OHHHHH?
 Quoting: optimum judgment


tounge
mtn_mang

User ID: 30785944
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08/17/2013 10:18 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gonna be a great day!

peace and love, solar fans
Luisport

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08/17/2013 10:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gonna be a great day!

peace and love, solar fans
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Hi my friend! hi
mtn_mang

User ID: 30785944
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08/17/2013 11:03 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Gonna be a great day!

peace and love, solar fans
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Hi my friend! hi
 Quoting: Luisport


good day to you, Luis!
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 11:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
It looks like Comet ISON will be a flop and may experience the fate of that other over-hyped comet-Elenin. An article based on recent observations, has this to say-

"Past performances by dynamically "new" comets [newcomers to the inner solar system], as ISON has turned out to be, have typically been pretty lackluster. With very few exceptions, these comets brighten only very slowly [as they approach, after appearing promising when farther out].

In the lightcurve prediction graph presented by Scarmato, Morales and Gary, their green line corresponds to typical "new" comet behavior. Note that this suggests the comet's brightness barely ever breaks the naked-eye barrier, even at perihelion!

Further, if one accepts anything like the green line's absolute magnitude of +9.73 for the comet, then ISON has no chance of surviving its perihelion..."


more here:
[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Photos and detailed observation details here:

[link to brucegary.net]

I hope they're wrong 'cause I love a good comet. Even if it's not bright, it should still be a good show for SOHO and STEREO watchers.

elenin fail
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 12:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
great videos Hugh wishing you all a great weekend hf
 Quoting: Goofy for God


My pleasure, GFG, and same to you, friend. Give thanks.

peace
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 12:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Mysterious magnetar boasts one of strongest magnetic fields in Universe-

Scientists using ESA’s XMM-Newton space telescope have discovered that a curious dead star has been hiding one of the strongest magnetic fields in the Universe all along, despite earlier suggestions of an unusually low magnetic field.

The object, known as SGR 0418+5729 (or SGR 0418 for short), is a magnetar, a particular kind of neutron star. A small proportion of neutron stars form and live briefly as magnetars, named for their extremely intense magnetic fields, billions to trillions of times greater than those generated in hospital MRI machines, for example. These fields cause magnetars to erupt sporadically with bursts of high-energy radiation.

SGR 0418 lies in our galaxy, about 6500 light years from Earth. It was first detected in June 2009 by space telescopes including NASA’s Fermi and Roscosmos’ Koronas-Photon when it suddenly lit up in X-rays and soft gamma rays. It has been studied subsequently by a fleet of observatories, including ESA’s XMM-Newton.

Interesting discovery:

[link to spacefellowship.com]

Great video of Martian moon eclipse...Phobos and Deimos. Wow, I wish we had another moon.



[link to www.youtube.com]
joinca

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08/17/2013 01:06 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
From the SDO blog site:
Coronal Holes
We see all sorts of things on the Sun and have named them all. Some names, such as chromosphere, make sense only if you speak an ancient language. One that is well named is a coronal hole, which is a dark area in the otherwise bright corona. As we move from solar maximum to the decline toward solar minimum, coronal holes will become a source of many of the disturbances to the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere that we call space weather. But what is a coronal hole and what does one look like?
X-ray images of the Sun often show the large dark regions that we call coronal holes. They may extend from the Sun's equator to its poles, a few from pole to pole. In the 1960's they were seen in X-ray images taken by sounding rockets and detected with some radio telescopes. They were first seen clearly in images taken by astronauts on board the Skylab space station in 1973 and 1974. Waldmeier had seen coronal holes in the 1950’s with a green line (Fe XIV 5303) coronagraph that allows the corona to be seen along the limb of the Sun but the X-ray images of the disk of the Sun really showed what they were.
The full article is here: [link to sdoisgo.blogspot.com]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
mtn_mang

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08/17/2013 02:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
banana2
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08/17/2013 02:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 45289420


siren2
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 02:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M FLARE !

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
siren2siren2siren2siren2
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.1 REACHED
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
UPDATE: M3.3
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.1 REACHED
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 20102225


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
1818
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 02:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


M3.3 from AR1818....and very much Earth-directed.

Big Bear pic:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

BB movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Luisport

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08/17/2013 02:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sealsealseal
Hugh M Eye

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08/17/2013 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
D-Layer Absorption :

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

arnoldSolarDoom!
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08/17/2013 02:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


M3.3 from AR1818....and very much Earth-directed.

Big Bear pic:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]

BB movie:
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Looks explosive, I'm expecting a fast CME based on the Xray flux, and gong images...
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
mtn_mang

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08/17/2013 02:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe just a warm up, stretching out for a bigger one later on hiding
Luisport

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08/17/2013 02:44 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe just a warm up, stretching out for a bigger one later on hiding
 Quoting: mtn_mang


scheming
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe just a warm up, stretching out for a bigger one later on hiding
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Agree, i expecting a bigger one.
joinca

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08/17/2013 02:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Maybe just a warm up, stretching out for a bigger one later on hiding
 Quoting: mtn_mang


scheming
 Quoting: Luisport

Eve:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
Wow I leave for just a few minutes and it happens! dasbier

Last Edited by joinca on 08/17/2013 02:54 PM
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Anonymous Coward
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08/17/2013 02:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M3 ok

so what?

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