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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
madajs.

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10/02/2013 08:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Summary of the 3 major Kp index estimates for the peak of last nights storm:

IAGA/GFZ: Kp 7+ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] : estimate with 11 of it's 13 observatories reported in so far, the estimate may decrease further as the final 2 observatories submit their readings in the next couple days

USAF: Kp 6.67 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA: Kp 6 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Last Edited by madajs. on 10/02/2013 09:54 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
Isis One

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10/02/2013 08:32 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just for Laughs-

Remember a couple of months ago NASA was bragging that the JUNO probe was 'halfway to Jupiter'?

[link to scitechdaily.com]

Well, looky here now.....what's that square thing hiding behind the Earth in the iSWA Enlil cygnet? Haha, why it's Juno right here near good ole' planet Earth! (halfway-to-Jupiter my ass!)

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you?

Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME!
alien16
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ah, thanks Hugh!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
madajs.

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10/02/2013 08:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Haha that's cool that they added Ison to cygnet #261. How convenient :)

Last Edited by madajs. on 10/02/2013 08:34 PM
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/02/2013 08:37 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament eruption. Maybe a slight impact if a CME is generated.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
whiteangel

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10/02/2013 08:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament eruption. Maybe a slight impact if a CME is generated.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Who needs sunspots for solar doom when we have all these lovely (lol) filaments letting loose?!

That C-flare is still going on, over 5 hours now. Glad it was on the limb.
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain

Thread: Being Prepared - Updated Basic Food List On Page One
Hugh M Eye

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10/02/2013 09:23 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament eruption. Maybe a slight impact if a CME is generated.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Good catch there GeoStorm. Nice double-ribbon flare, too. I think Sol's cleaning house to get ready for entertaining company for Thanksgiving (ISON). We may see some big active regions and a pole-flip soon as well.

Angry Gigantor
Isis One

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10/02/2013 09:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament eruption. Maybe a slight impact if a CME is generated.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Nice catch Geo, I was wondering what that was on the purple image.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Hugh M Eye

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10/02/2013 09:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Summary of the 3 major Kp index estimates for the peak of last nights storm:

IAGA/GFZ: Kp 7+ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] : estimate with 11 of it's 13 observatories reported in so far, the estimate may decrease further as the final 2 observatories submit their readings in the next couple days

USAF: Kp 6.67 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA: Kp 6 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs.


Thanks for the update and thanks to everyone who posted (or not) on the Storm thread last night. Over 20,000 page views ....not bad.

Special thanks to you Madajs for seeing the sudden impulse alert when no one was expecting arrival for another 12 hours; and also to NINzrez for picking me up when I started passing out. All-in-all it was a pleasant group effort and a very interesting evening/morning. Kudos to all participants.

grouphug

Peace to Agent Truthseeker 66 if you're out there....please accept my apologies and come back to your suntard peeps here. Your input here was always appreciated.
hugs
shadasonic

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10/02/2013 09:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Filament eruption. Maybe a slight impact if a CME is generated.


[link to halpha.nso.edu]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Good catch there GeoStorm. Nice double-ribbon flare, too. I think Sol's cleaning house to get ready for entertaining company for Thanksgiving (ISON). We may see some big active regions and a pole-flip soon as well.

Angry Gigantor
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I would agree HMI!rockon
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 12:13 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA Solar Wind update is an essential (World) government service-


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
ACE data indicated the arrival of the CME associated with the September
29 filament eruption at about 02/0120 UTC. Solar wind speed quickly
increased to over 600 km/s (peak speed 664 km/s at 02/0241 UTC) and
imbedded magnetic fields were over 30 nT (peak IMF Bt 33 nT at 02/0424
UTC) with strong southward Bz (maximum southward deflection - 29 nT at
02/0425 UTC).
IMF Phi data indicated a negative-polarity (Toward) solar
sector during most of the period.


.Forecast...
The CME passage is expected to continue through Oct. 3 with elevated
wind speed and increased variability of the magnetic fields. Solar wind
conditions are expected to gradually return to background levels by Oct.
4.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

CME Impact Exposed Geosynchronus Satellites to Strong Solar Winds-

10/2-Magpause

New AR 1856-
:10/3-1856:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 276 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Oct 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1854 N05E04 290 0020 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1855 S14W11 307 0130 Dsi 07 16 Beta
1856 N08E69 225 0050 Cao 02 01 Beta
1857 S06E66 228 0070 Hax 02 01 Alpha


New AR1857-
:10/3-1857:
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 12:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Nice post-flare loops from 1850's big LDE/CME event-
:10/3-loops:
Anonymous Coward
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Netherlands
10/03/2013 01:12 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you?

Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME!
alien16
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


They removed it AGAIN.
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 02:05 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you?

Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME!
alien16
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


They removed it AGAIN.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention.
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2013 02:16 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you?

Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME!
alien16
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


They removed it AGAIN.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

wtf? I saw it too.. now it's gone!
Juno is still right by earth though...
retards2
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 47001552
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10/03/2013 06:30 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
never seen this blurry like this , why is it??

[link to spaceweather.com]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/03/2013 06:36 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I did a thread on this once but have you ever noticed when sun is active there are more vehicle accidents??


[link to hisz.rsoe.hu]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 46766538
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10/03/2013 08:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Summary of the 3 major Kp index estimates for the peak of last nights storm:

IAGA/GFZ: Kp 7+ [link to www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de] : estimate with 11 of it's 13 observatories reported in so far, the estimate may decrease further as the final 2 observatories submit their readings in the next couple days

USAF: Kp 6.67 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

NOAA: Kp 6 [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: madajs.


Thanks for the update and thanks to everyone who posted (or not) on the Storm thread last night. Over 20,000 page views ....not bad.

Special thanks to you Madajs for seeing the sudden impulse alert when no one was expecting arrival for another 12 hours; and also to NINzrez for picking me up when I started passing out. All-in-all it was a pleasant group effort and a very interesting evening/morning. Kudos to all participants.

grouphug

Peace to Agent Truthseeker 66 if you're out there....please accept my apologies and come back to your suntard peeps here. Your input here was always appreciated.
hugs
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I'm here blwkss
Luisport

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10/03/2013 09:49 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 09:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ?

Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.-

" In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated.

This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable.

Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. "

See all of his evidence and conclusions here:

[link to astronomia.udea.edu.co]

hiding
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 09:59 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 Quoting: Luisport


Thanks, Luisport! Awesome display! Was that a jet whizzing by or a meteor near the end?
Luisport

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10/03/2013 10:02 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thank you my friend! hf
WatcherJ

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10/03/2013 10:10 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ?

Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.-

" In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated.

This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable.

Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. "

See all of his evidence and conclusions here:

[link to astronomia.udea.edu.co]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will.

" In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months.

Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now.

The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9."

go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram.
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 10:18 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of last night's filament eruption and CME in the SE. Most likely not geo-effective, but I can't see it because SOHO and STEREO weren't awake at the time; and NASA isn't filling in the missing SOHO data due to government shutdown, I guess.

Note: the jerky motions are due to the satellite roll maneuver which happened during that time frame.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The other CME (the big one on the NW limb) seems to be headed straight at Comet ISON! We may see the comet brighten significantly in about 3 days (or possibly fall apart).

iSWA Enlil Cone model cygnet:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
madajs.

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10/03/2013 10:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm here blwkss
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46766538

Hi TS! cheers
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
TryToGetTheTruth

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10/03/2013 10:35 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ?

Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.-

" In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated.

This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable.

Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. "

See all of his evidence and conclusions here:

[link to astronomia.udea.edu.co]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will.

" In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months.

Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now.

The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9."

go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram.
 Quoting: WatcherJ


In other words... they KNOW very little still
Open mind required !

I am in SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO, CANADA
WatcherJ

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10/03/2013 10:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ?

Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.-

" In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated.

This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable.

Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. "

See all of his evidence and conclusions here:

[link to astronomia.udea.edu.co]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will.

" In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months.

Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now.

The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9."

go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram.
 Quoting: WatcherJ


In other words... they KNOW very little still
 Quoting: TryToGetTheTruth


Exactly what I thought when I read the entire article. It seems they may be onto something, but they have questions as Ison is acting somewhat differently than the two they compare it to as quoted in the above. So I think it's a best guess theory based on past events.
WatcherJ

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10/03/2013 10:44 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of last night's filament eruption and CME in the SE. Most likely not geo-effective, but I can't see it because SOHO and STEREO weren't awake at the time; and NASA isn't filling in the missing SOHO data due to government shutdown, I guess.

Note: the jerky motions are due to the satellite roll maneuver which happened during that time frame.

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

The other CME (the big one on the NW limb) seems to be headed straight at Comet ISON! We may see the comet brighten significantly in about 3 days (or possibly fall apart).

iSWA Enlil Cone model cygnet:

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


and when you look at this Hugh just posted actually makes you question whether Ison could have been magnetically attached now to the sun that the above CME went towards ISON? or just another departing spot as always on the western limb of the sun. We'll never know without research from the now shut down NASA huh?
shadasonic

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10/03/2013 10:56 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

I also just noticed that they added ISON to their model. I've never seen them do that for a comet before. Methinks NASA is really feeding some of this ISON hysteria/frenzy, don't you?

Kudos to Isis One (Is--On-? Hmmmm) for bringing ISON up in context of this recent CME!
alien16
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


They removed it AGAIN.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 21765116


Wow, they're awfully busy for a shut down government agency. Now I'm even more weirded-out by this. I would email NASA for an explanation but their email, twitters, etc. are symbolically shut down now, LOL. Thanks for bringing that to our attention.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other.
They are very busy for a 97% furlough

Last Edited by shadahoochie on 10/03/2013 10:58 AM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
zacksavage
~~Unbound~~

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10/03/2013 11:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other.
They are very busy for a 97% furlough
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hard to be kept from being freaked out with the Dark Pumpkin ever looming Shad.

scared


Z
In time we hate that which we often fear.

--- William Shakespeare
shadasonic

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10/03/2013 11:17 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other.
They are very busy for a 97% furlough
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hard to be kept from being freaked out with the Dark Pumpkin ever looming Shad.

scared


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


:end pull: LOLbaby huey

nice to see you Z!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan

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We're dropping truth bombs like it's the end of days!