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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 11:19 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
THE IMPENDING DEMISE OF COMET ISON ?

Cometary scientist Ignacio Ferrin predicts doom for c/2012 S1/ISON.-

" In view of the evidence presented above there is a 100% probability that comet ISON will disintegrate. The reason is that it exhibits the same SDE+U-shape signature as comets Hönig and Tabur that disintegrated.

This dispels the notion that comets are not predictable.

Comets announce that they are going to disintegrate by exhibiting the SDE+U-shape signature. "

See all of his evidence and conclusions here:

[link to astronomia.udea.edu.co]

hiding
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


To be fair, I think you should have pasted the entire paragraph of what you posted above, because it shows it's not as cut and dried as you quoted from the article. So I will.

" In the case of comet Hönig it took 54 days after the SDE to disintegrate. Comet Tabur took about 90 days. Comet ISON is taking more than 9 months.

Also, the very sharp discontinuity of slope at the SDE implies that this can not be an outburst. There is some fundamental physical process that goes on here that we do not understand. Or if this is an outburst, it is a very different outburst than the ones we have known up to now.

The location of the Slope Discontinuity Event is also puzzling in the following diagram, Figure 9."

go to [link to astronomia.udea.edu.co] to see the diagram.
 Quoting: WatcherJ


Howdy, WatcherJhi, I appreciate the post. Please note that I added the question mark to the title....although the author is 100% certain, I'm a bit confused by some of these graphs and I'm no expert on comets' light curves. NASA still seems to be pushing this 'Comet of the Century' meme, but many of the amateur reports, astro-bloggers, and now this Columbian astronomer have been pointing out the weaker-than-expected showing of ISON thus far; especially since it passed the so-called 'frost-line'.

I myself have always thought that ISON would be ripped apart as it nears perihelion. Mostly it's just a gut-feeling and my respect for the Sun's awesome power. Also, the comet will pass within the Roche Limit, so if it survives perihelion it will be against all odds.

"Explanation-

Typically, the Roche limit applies to a satellite disintegrating due to tidal forces induced by its primary, the body about which it orbits. Parts of the satellite that are closer to the primary are attracted by stronger gravity from the primary, whereas parts farther away are repelled by stronger centrifugal force from the satellite's curved orbit. Some real satellites, both natural and artificial, can orbit within their Roche limits because they are held together by forces other than gravitation. Jupiter's moon Metis and Saturn's moon Pan are examples of such satellites, which hold together because of their tensile strength (that is, they are solid and not easily pulled apart). In extreme cases, objects resting on the surface of such a satellite could actually be lifted away by tidal forces. A weaker satellite, such as a comet, could be broken up when it passes within its Roche limit."

[link to en.wikipedia.org]

Recent (10/01) images of comet ISON:

[link to brucegary.net]
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other.
They are very busy for a 97% furlough
 Quoting: shadasonic



It is quite troubling to see NASA gutted by Obama and now this 97 percent furlough thing after the sequester crap.

It seems like all they do up there in Washington is posture and lie.

Was the last cme really a dead on hit toward ISON?


Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/03/2013 11:30 AM
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

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Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 11:33 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
BREAKING NEWS-

The first images of ISON from Mars' HiRise mission. Very unimpressive pics IMO.

[link to www.uahirise.org]

Read the press release here:

[link to www.uahirise.org]

Comet ISON Observering Campaign:

[link to www.isoncampaign.org]

siren2
zacksavage
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BREAKING NEWS-

The first images of ISON from Mars' HiRise mission. Very unimpressive pics IMO.

[link to www.uahirise.org]

Read the press release here:

[link to www.uahirise.org]

Comet ISON Observering Campaign:

[link to www.isoncampaign.org]

siren2
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Cool Hugh,...thank you kindly.



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 11:39 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
They are either trying to push this doom or trying to keep us from becoming freaked out? Very weird actions by Nasa(playing their part in the govt. bullshit) The last cme was dead on ison hit, probably was drawing to much attention , one way or the other.
They are very busy for a 97% furlough
 Quoting: shadasonic



It is quite troubling to see NASA gutted by Obama and now this 97 percent furlough thing after the sequester crap.

It seems like all they do up there in Washington is posture and lie.

Was the last cme really a dead on hit toward ISON?


Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


Howdy, Z, yes, er..uh..maybe, haha. ISON just passed Mars which is where that CME is headed. I don't have a definitive 3D map showing the position of ISON and the CME in relation to the ecliptic plane. If the comet is presently near or slightly north of the ecliptic it will probably get slammed by this energetic CME.
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, Z, yes, er..uh..maybe, haha. ISON just passed Mars which is where that CME is headed. I don't have a definitive 3D map showing the position of ISON and the CME in relation to the ecliptic plane. If the comet is presently near or slightly north of the ecliptic it will probably get slammed by this energetic CME.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks Hugh, I was checking out the pics of ISON you posted and am left wondering why in the hell they hyped this thing so much?

Holmes was 10 times better in visibility and whatnot,... and received little to zero build up or main stream press.

Hm,...

Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/03/2013 11:56 AM
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Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 11:54 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ISON is still seen in this cone model of the inner planets, but I can't get the CME on there at this time:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look under 'Heliosphere' for more cone models:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ISON is still seen in this cone model of the inner planets, but I can't get the CME on there at this time:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Look under 'Heliosphere' for more cone models:

[link to iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I saw ISon under Mars,...I got a blank page when I clicked heliosphere.

Anyway, gotta go, have a great day Hugh,...thank you for being you.


Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Howdy, Z, yes, er..uh..maybe, haha. ISON just passed Mars which is where that CME is headed. I don't have a definitive 3D map showing the position of ISON and the CME in relation to the ecliptic plane. If the comet is presently near or slightly north of the ecliptic it will probably get slammed by this energetic CME.
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Thanks Hugh, I was checking out the pics of ISON you posted and am left wondering why in the hell they hyped this thing so much?

Holmes was 10 times better in visibility and whatnot,... and received little to zero build up or main stream press.

Hm,...

Z
 Quoting: zacksavage


I'm in complete agreement with you there. In the past year we had two lovely comets, Lemmon and PanSTARRS which got very little attention. I think the potential prospect of a huge tail as this comet is projected to graze the sun's corona in November gave NASA "irrational exuberance". I still hope we see a nice show whether it's naked-eye or by way of SDO, SOHO and STEREO.
popcorn
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CHINA TESTING NEW SPACE WEAPONS-

China last week conducted a test of a maneuvering satellite that captured another satellite in space during what Pentagon officials say was a significant step forward for Beijing’s space warfare program.

The satellite capture took place last week and involved one of three small satellites fitted with a mechanical arm that were launched July 20 as part of a covert anti-satellite weapons development program, said U.S. officials familiar with reports of the test.

One official described the satellite-grabbing spacecraft as a “mobile satellite launch vehicle.”

(snip)...Rick Fisher, a Chinese military affairs specialist, said the robot-arm satellite that he believes is the Shiyan-7 is part of China’s dual-use space program that includes satellites for military close-surveillance and attack missions. Civilian applications include development of space manipulator arm technology.

“As an ASAT, a future version of the SY-7 could be used to take close-up images of U.S. satellites, to remove systems from those satellites and return them to China, to directly damage U.S. satellites or to plant ‘mines’ on those satellites or close nearby,” said Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

[link to freebeacon.com]

Can't you smell the DOOM?
pinkDoomsday
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2013 02:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the ACE high energy protons (SIS) instrument now damaged by the last cme? The plot looks terrible:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
muse_1111

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10/03/2013 02:38 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the ACE high energy protons (SIS) instrument now damaged by the last cme? The plot looks terrible:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37159590


I was just noticing the repetitive pattern on the SIS graph. I think it was June 2012 where it had a pattern for a few days. First glance at the chart today, and I immediately thought of the Time Wave Zero chart.

Looks like we are still in a geomagnetic storm from the filament arrival.
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the ACE high energy protons (SIS) instrument now damaged by the last cme? The plot looks terrible:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37159590


I was just noticing the repetitive pattern on the SIS graph. I think it was June 2012 where it had a pattern for a few days. First glance at the chart today, and I immediately thought of the Time Wave Zero chart.

Looks like we are still in a geomagnetic storm from the filament arrival.
 Quoting: muse_1111


Next thing that comes to my mind is some kind of a "ripple" effect in the imf caused by the plasma cloud and being detected as highs and lows on SIS... I guess we'll know for sure in a few days.
cosmicgypsy

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am so nauseas today, with a mild headache...is there a CME hitting right now? Something else off kilter?

I have no fever, no other-end problems, so it's likely not the flu or food poisoning, that's why I'm asking.

This sure feels like it does when we're getting slammed, but I'm not seeing any threads about it, like usual if there is one.

Thanks to whoever will be able to answer for me...hf
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am so nauseas today, with a mild headache...is there a CME hitting right now? Something else off kilter?

I have no fever, no other-end problems, so it's likely not the flu or food poisoning, that's why I'm asking.

This sure feels like it does when we're getting slammed, but I'm not seeing any threads about it, like usual if there is one.

Thanks to whoever will be able to answer for me...hf
 Quoting: cosmicgypsy


No Earth-directed cmes only one Mars-directed and one Venus/Mercury-directed (both away from Earth). Check this page [link to sol24.net] (click on the ENLIL links to check the last cme direction and size.
cosmicgypsy

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10/03/2013 03:59 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I am so nauseas today, with a mild headache...is there a CME hitting right now? Something else off kilter?

I have no fever, no other-end problems, so it's likely not the flu or food poisoning, that's why I'm asking.

This sure feels like it does when we're getting slammed, but I'm not seeing any threads about it, like usual if there is one.

Thanks to whoever will be able to answer for me...hf
 Quoting: cosmicgypsy


No Earth-directed cmes only one Mars-directed and one Venus/Mercury-directed (both away from Earth). Check this page [link to sol24.net] (click on the ENLIL links to check the last cme direction and size.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37159590



Okay. I've bookmarked the site. Thanks!

Weird, though. This I'm feeling feels exactly like when a CME is blowin' the door down.


scratching
Anonymous Coward
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10/03/2013 04:22 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
1856,1857 lighting up

@ C 1.7
Hugh M Eye

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10/03/2013 04:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
1856,1857 lighting up

@ C 1.7
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17754867


Yep, '56 I think. Things may be perking up.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Voluntaryist
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10/03/2013 04:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
1856,1857 lighting up

@ C 1.7
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17754867


Yep, '56 I think. Things may be perking up.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to s18.postimg.org]

I put the images on top of each other, really shows where activity is happening
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
1856,1857 lighting up

@ C 1.7
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 17754867


Yep, '56 I think. Things may be perking up.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


[link to s18.postimg.org]

I put the images on top of each other, really shows where activity is happening
 Quoting: Voluntaryist 17754867


Thanks, that's very cool. Great job.

pump2
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
CACTus Details for yesterday's Mars-directed CME. It was much slower than I thought, so I don't know how long it will take to reach Comet ISON. The SE filament CME can be seen near the end of loop:

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

AR1856 Magnetogram-
:10/3-1856mag:

AR1857 Magnetogram-
:10/3-1857mag:
Southern OR

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
"Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Southern OR


Wow, I'm so glad you caught them, SouthernOR! banana2hf I think we'll see a lot more in the next few months....at least I'm hoping. Thanks for your report, friend.
5a
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Is the ACE high energy protons (SIS) instrument now damaged by the last cme? The plot looks terrible:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 37159590


Nice find, AC Bulgaria. cheers It's definitely weird but I don't see any bad data on the other ACE plots, so I don't think the detectors are damaged. ACE is getting quite old and has seen a lot of radiation; so maybe only the SIS Hi-energy Proton sensor is having a hangover from the SPE radiation storm. Hopefully someone in-the-know will chime in with a rational explanation.

ACE SIS 7-Day Plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SIS 3-Day Plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SIS 24-Hour Plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

ACE SIS 6-Hour plot:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

The oscillation appears to have about an hour-and-fifteen minutes between peaks. I have no idea what could cause this pattern to persist so long....it's a mystery to me. Thanks for noticing and posting; it may turn out to be significant. Peace.
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Southern OR


Nice.

I am too damn far south I guess cry



Z
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

--- parliament funkadelic
Hugh M Eye

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Southern OR


Wow, I'm so glad you caught them, SouthernOR! banana2hf I think we'll see a lot more in the next few months....at least I'm hoping. Thanks for your report, friend.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I just found another great gallery of aurora photos from the past two nights:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
shadasonic

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10/03/2013 10:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Southern OR


Wow, I'm so glad you caught them, SouthernOR! banana2hf I think we'll see a lot more in the next few months....at least I'm hoping. Thanks for your report, friend.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I just found another great gallery of aurora photos from the past two nights:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


One day Hugh we'll see them dancing right above our heads. That would be something. Good night . Peace to all.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
zacksavage
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


One day Hugh we'll see them dancing right above our heads. That would be something. Good night . Peace to all.
 Quoting: shadasonic


Later Shad.

ohyeah

Edit to add: Hot damn those lights are sweet!!!
Finland was out of control!

Z

Last Edited by zacksavage on 10/03/2013 10:42 PM
Free your mind,...your ass will follow.

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Southern OR

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10/03/2013 11:27 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Woo Hoo! Northern Lights were visible here again. And, someone took a picture (not me, but at least I know I'm not crazy or need to get my eyes checked).

[link to www.facebook.com (secure)]
 Quoting: Southern OR


Wow, I'm so glad you caught them, SouthernOR! banana2hf I think we'll see a lot more in the next few months....at least I'm hoping. Thanks for your report, friend.
5a
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I just found another great gallery of aurora photos from the past two nights:

[link to www.accuweather.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Wow! Those are gorgeous!!! What I saw was such a beautiful green shimmer running vertically. When I saw it I said "Girl, you need to stop letting GLP make you crazy. Or maybe you need to get your eyes checked or clean those damn windows on the side of the house." Nice to know it was real.
"Well-behaved women seldom make history." —Laurel Thatcher Ulrich

I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And I will not let what I cannot do interfere with what I can do. ~Edward Everett Hale
Isis One

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
rphunter posted this link to Comet Enke's tail breaking up on Astro's Ison thread. I thought it was soo cool.

[link to disasterpredictions.com]
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