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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2013 12:38 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Solarsoft-SDO close-up movie of yesterday's filament eruption:

[link to sdowww.lmsal.com]

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 1856 (N07E06, Cro/beta) produced a C6/1n
flare at 07/0414 UTC which was the largest event of the period.
Newly-numbered Region 1861 (S15E69, Bxo/beta) produced a C1 flare at
07/0508 UTC. Region 1860 (S28E46, Bxo/beta) was also numbered this
period.
A filament eruption centered near S15W43 was observed
initially on SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 06/1348 UTC, and the resulting
asymmetric halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on SOHO/LASCO
imagery at 07/1432 UTC. Current analysis of this event indicates that
this CME will arrive at Earth between 09/2200 UTC and 10/0300 UTC. See
the Geospace portion of this discussion for further details on
anticipated impacts.

Geospace.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (07 Oct) with waning CME influence. Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for day two (08 Oct). The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for
active conditions late on day three (09 Oct) with arrival of the 06 Oct
CME.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

So Wednesday evening prime-time (EDT) CME arrival. I'm certain NOAA screwed up the coordinates for the cme source eruption- the longitude wasn't 'W43', but W12 as confirmed by Lockheed Solarsoft:

[link to www.lmsal.com]

Lasco C2 movie....notice the faint halo and picture a huge blob of plasma in the middle which you can't see 'cause it's comin' right at ya.
tomato


[link to www.lmsal.com]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


NASA's CME arrival prediction is about 20 Hours later than NOAA's! Sometimes I think they just spin a roulette wheel and take a few side bets...IDK.

"Event Issue Date: 2013-10-06 17:28:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-09 18:42:27.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 29 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.8 Re"
manhole5
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I think that is because nasa are pushing gravity theory so if the cme does not fit there models they revise it until does whilst noaa just puts out the pure correct data with no agenda so they clash.
 Quoting: optimum judgment


Howdy OJ hi I've found that both agencies are correct (or close) about 50% of the time; although it's obvious they use different methodologies and get sometimes wildly divergent conclusions. I merely report and comment on the inconsistencies but I do realize that accurate CME forecasting is an almost impossible task. Not too many years ago no one had a clue that a CME was coming. When the STEREO spacecraft were at 90 degree angles from SOHO it was much easier to calculate the velocity of the ejecta. Now the STEREO probes are much further on the far side (and the images shut down 10-12 hrs a day), so it's getting harder to see what's coming at Earth.

[link to stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/07/2013 12:41 PM
Hugh M Eye

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10/07/2013 02:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the SDO images (beginning @15:00) I noticed a lot of interaction and coronal dimming between 1856 and 1857. The dimming (or hole?) occurred right on the equator and there appears to be plasma streaming a long way toward the west. This looks very unusual to me, but I've rarely seen two ARs of opposite polarity so close to the equator before.

SDO:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Equatorial Disturbance near 1856 & '57-
:10/7-dimming:
:10/7-EVE:
optimum judgment

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10/07/2013 04:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the SDO images (beginning @15:00) I noticed a lot of interaction and coronal dimming between 1856 and 1857. The dimming (or hole?) occurred right on the equator and there appears to be plasma streaming a long way toward the west. This looks very unusual to me, but I've rarely seen two ARs of opposite polarity so close to the equator before.

SDO:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Equatorial Disturbance near 1856 & '57-
:10/7-dimming:
:10/7-EVE:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Very interesting will have to keep an eye on that interaction thanks hugh
abeliever

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10/07/2013 11:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Magnetosphere is wacky again...

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
shadasonic

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10/07/2013 11:14 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the SDO images (beginning @15:00) I noticed a lot of interaction and coronal dimming between 1856 and 1857. The dimming (or hole?) occurred right on the equator and there appears to be plasma streaming a long way toward the west. This looks very unusual to me, but I've rarely seen two ARs of opposite polarity so close to the equator before.

SDO:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Equatorial Disturbance near 1856 & '57-
:10/7-dimming:
:10/7-EVE:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I would agree, the polarity of division , what a concept and energy to try and understand. Well we'll do our best HME, good catches on all these transfers.
rahrah
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Isis One

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10/08/2013 01:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Funny story for everyone today, I have same routine every morning coffee and GLP and news, this am when I woke , I had no internet and when I looked it said none available whole town so I had a moment of ahhhwent to TV to see what had happened , but then it came on smile_kissHave great day
 Quoting: Goofy for God


I've had that happen too, its like withdrawal reaction, lol
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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10/08/2013 01:26 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I was busy last month so I'm going through about 300 old emails. I found this important article that I missed from Sept. 11th. Pardon me if it already covered here-

No Evidence of Planetary Influence on Solar Activity
by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Sep 11, 2013

In 2012, Astronomy and Astrophysics published a statistical study of the isotopic records of solar activity, in which Abreu et al. claimed that there is evidence of planetary influence on solar activity. A&A is publishing a new analysis of these isotopic data by Cameron and Schussler. It corrects technical errors in the statistical tests performed by Abreu et al. They find no evidence of any planetary effect on solar activity. (snip)

In principle, the planets can affect the Sun by exerting tides (similar to terrestrial ocean tides caused by the moon), but these effects are extremely tiny (tide heights of a few millimeters, at most) in comparison to all other dynamical forces. Furthermore, detailed statistical analyses have time and again shown that apparent similarities between some planetary periods and solar activity variations were consistent with chance and were statistically insignificant.(snip)

In a new paper published in A&A, R. Cameron and M. Schussler, however, identify subtle technical errors in the statistical tests performed by Abreu et al. Correcting these errors reduces the statistical significance by many orders of magnitude to values consistent with a pure chance coincidence. The quasi-periods in the isotope data therefore provide no evidence that there is any planetary effect on solar activity.

more here:
[link to www.spacedaily.com]

The cited paper's abstract:
[link to www.aanda.org]

Spittin' Cesium (if you're out there) or someone should forward this to Suspicious Observers in case they missed it, too.

catfilenails
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Ahhh, what about barycenters???
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

User ID: 14343270
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10/08/2013 01:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Looking at the SDO images (beginning @15:00) I noticed a lot of interaction and coronal dimming between 1856 and 1857. The dimming (or hole?) occurred right on the equator and there appears to be plasma streaming a long way toward the west. This looks very unusual to me, but I've rarely seen two ARs of opposite polarity so close to the equator before.

SDO:
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Equatorial Disturbance near 1856 & '57-
:10/7-dimming:
:10/7-EVE:
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Nice catch, very interesting.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Anonymous Coward
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Bulgaria
10/08/2013 01:28 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good old ACE is out of the game since 1am UTC... verysad
Isis One

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10/08/2013 01:32 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Just saw this thread with this interesting screenshot. I don't remember seeing that red line look like that, Nin and Hugh, what say you?

Thread: ACE SATELLITE PICKING UP MODULATED SIGNAL
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 05:06 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Boom!!!


[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Isis One

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10/08/2013 05:20 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Holy 'release the krackin' Batman! Nice catch. OK, now I'm, really going to bed, this is getting ridiculous.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 05:21 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Holy 'release the krackin' Batman! Nice catch. OK, now I'm, really going to bed, this is getting ridiculous.
 Quoting: Isis One


Haha. See ya.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 05:22 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to halpha.nso.edu]
Isis One

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10/08/2013 05:27 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#




[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#




[link to sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Isis One


Page doesn't open for me. :(
Isis One

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10/08/2013 05:28 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
^^^^lasco image link wouldn't work for me.
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

User ID: 44557506
10/08/2013 05:31 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
^^^^lasco image link wouldn't work for me.
 Quoting: Isis One


Ok. Solarham on FB posted the link and it worked. Should be a nice CME.
Snuffielover

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10/08/2013 07:09 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Now that looks like a big protuberance lifting off. Looks like our Sun is finally coming to life. I wish we could see it here. But it has been cloudy for the most part the last months.

PS! It looks even better in 4096 resolution! hf

Last Edited by Snuffielover on 10/08/2013 07:10 AM
If any foreign minister begins to defend to the death a "peace conference," you can be sure his government has already placed its orders for new battleships and aeroplanes.
shenue

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10/08/2013 09:40 AM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good morning everyone. Group Hug Beautiful day here in the east.
I stayed up all night to see where the sun went. Then it dawned on me.
coffeePC
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2013 04:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
where is everybody tell me to calm down it is not big deal 1dunno1
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 04:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


1dunno1

[link to www.solarham.net]
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2013 05:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


1dunno1

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2013 05:15 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


1dunno1

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 05:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


1dunno1

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Oh not again! Lol
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 47869419
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10/08/2013 05:21 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!!

Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone.

If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity.

Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in.

200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
arnoldSolarDoom!
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

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10/08/2013 05:28 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
look at needles at end the DP

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Goofy for God
Do everything with love

User ID: 47001552
United States
10/08/2013 05:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Wow! Thanks for your vigilance GFG! This seems way too early to be from that filament eruption. This is about 24-hours early for NOAA's 'faster' arrival; and almost 48 hours early for the 'slower' NASA prediction!!

Two possibilities off the top of my head are 1) We all missed something (ie, a different event), or 2) The velocity was grossly underestimated! Without the benefit of the STEREO images of that CME it's a crap-shoot to tell the speed of a dead-on Earth-directed CME from the SOHO pics alone.

If you ever watched a baseball game, it's pretty easy to spot a change-up or a fastball from the dugout POV, but it's very difficult from the batter's POV (ie, comin' right at ya). Even the supercomputers need to triangulate data to accurately assess the velocity.

Conclusion-NASA strikes out on a fastball up and in.

200 km/sec increase in Solar Wind speed is not a weak of glancing blow...

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
arnoldSolarDoom!
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


3 things I really watch, SUN, EQ and Weather cause God is in control not NASA
Proverbs 15:1
A soft answer turns away wrath, But a harsh word stirs up anger.
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 47869419
United States
10/08/2013 05:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2020 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 08 2050 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2013 Oct 08 1942 UTC

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales


been out what has happened this in my email
 Quoting: Goofy for God


1dunno1

[link to www.solarham.net]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


It looks like the magnetosphere was caught offguard, too. Look at the graphs!

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Strong Density readings at ACE (2-Hour plot):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

REal-time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Solar Wind-Mag-Field model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]

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