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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA seems perplexed about this CME, too. They seem to indicate as I suggested that some event went unnoticed and they seem to hold out expectations of the filament CME hitting us tomorrow night. Confusion reigns.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 1861 (S13E50, Bxo/beta) produced a
B-class flare. New Regions 1863 (S18E19, Bxo/beta), 1864 (S23E62,
Hsx/alpha), and 1865 (S20E70, Cao/beta) were numbered.
A large
prominence erupted from the northeast limb at around 08/0030 UTC
associated with a non-Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

Solar Wind .Forecast...
CME effects are expected to persist during the first half of Oct. 9,
then gradually subside. Analysis is inconclusive as to whether the
current effects are from the CME associated with the filament eruption
on Oct. 6 or a different, undetected CME.
If they are separate events,
effects from the current CME should persist through the first part of
Oct 9 then begin to wane through midday. The CME from the filament
eruption on Oct. 6 is then expected to arrive late on Oct. 9, again
increasing wind speed and IMF Bt.
CME effects are expected to persist
through midday on Oct. 10, then gradually subside. Wind speed is
expected to increase on Oct. 11 due to the onset of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Current ACE data shows that solar plasma density reached near 60p/cu.cm.-

2013 10 08 2051 56573 75060 0 34.2 421.4 2.34e+05
2013 10 08 2052 56573 75120 1 34.7 445.9 2.48e+05
2013 10 08 2053 56573 75180 0 3.4 342.3 6.10e+04
2013 10 08 2054 56573 75240 1 23.3 434.5 2.71e+05
2013 10 08 2055 56573 75300 1 30.4 420.8 2.78e+05
2013 10 08 2056 56573 75360 0 33.0 440.6 2.30e+05
2013 10 08 2057 56573 75420 0 12.3 380.7 1.14e+05
2013 10 08 2058 56573 75480 1 26.3 387.3 1.87e+05
2013 10 08 2059 56573 75540 1 38.3 443.8 2.38e+05
2013 10 08 2100 56573 75600 0 38.3 461.3 1.80e+05
2013 10 08 2101 56573 75660 0 47.7 448.0 1.53e+05
2013 10 08 2102 56573 75720 0 58.6 427.6 1.48e+05
2013 10 08 2103 56573 75780 0 56.1 390.9 1.21e+05
2013 10 08 2104 56573 75840 0 10.4 364.7 7.41e+04
2013 10 08 2105 56573 75900 0 53.4 449.0 1.55e+05
2013 10 08 2106 56573 75960 0 56.0


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
and now we have an M-Flare!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/08/2013 09:44 PM
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.3
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
God...M1.6 and still rising..
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.9 and still rising..wth..
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 09:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh hello!
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 09:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46258180


Which region? Lol
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46258180


Which region? Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Cur 09/0147 M2.8 Ratio 0.194
whiteangel

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10/08/2013 09:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Southeast
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now to wait for some earthquakes.
TS66
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10/08/2013 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1865 possibly 1864
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 09:54 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-
:10/8-newSElimb:
:10/8-SElimbMag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 282 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Oct 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1856 N07W10 226 0030 Cao 03 03 Beta
1857 S08W11 227 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1860 S27E31 187 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha
1861 S13E50 165 0010 Bxo 06 03 Beta
1862 S23W34 250 0020 Cso 06 03 Beta
1863 S18E19 197 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
1864 S23E62 154 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1865 S20E73 143 0060 Cao 03 02 Beta
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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10/08/2013 09:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-
:10/8-newSElimb:
:10/8-SElimbMag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 282 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Oct 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1856 N07W10 226 0030 Cao 03 03 Beta
1857 S08W11 227 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1860 S27E31 187 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha
1861 S13E50 165 0010 Bxo 06 03 Beta
1862 S23W34 250 0020 Cso 06 03 Beta
1863 S18E19 197 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
1864 S23E62 154 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1865 S20E73 143 0060 Cao 03 02 Beta
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


glp uncle
whiteangel

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10/08/2013 09:57 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-

:10/8-SElimbMag:

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That is the best looking spot we have seen in awhile!
WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2WAXmas2
Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
Luke 2:14
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 09:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1865 possibly 1864
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


Nice call, M'lady. smile_kiss How'd you know about 1865? LOL.

Thanks for posting...you are correct of course. Hope you are well and ready for global cooling and civil wars...Peace.
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:59 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-
:10/8-newSElimb:
:10/8-SElimbMag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 282 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Oct 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1856 N07W10 226 0030 Cao 03 03 Beta
1857 S08W11 227 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1860 S27E31 187 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha
1861 S13E50 165 0010 Bxo 06 03 Beta
1862 S23W34 250 0020 Cso 06 03 Beta
1863 S18E19 197 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
1864 S23E62 154 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1865 S20E73 143 0060 Cao 03 02 Beta
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


:glp uncle:
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Something wrong?
TS66
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10/08/2013 10:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Amateur Meteorologist"

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10/08/2013 10:02 PM

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Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


glp uncle
Anonymous Coward
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


Oh and LMSAL of course wink
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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10/08/2013 10:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-
:10/8-newSElimb:
:10/8-SElimbMag:

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 282 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Oct 2013
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Oct
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1856 N07W10 226 0030 Cao 03 03 Beta
1857 S08W11 227 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1860 S27E31 187 0010 Axx 02 02 Alpha
1861 S13E50 165 0010 Bxo 06 03 Beta
1862 S23W34 250 0020 Cso 06 03 Beta
1863 S18E19 197 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
1864 S23E62 154 0050 Hsx 01 01 Alpha
1865 S20E73 143 0060 Cao 03 02 Beta
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


glp uncle
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Something wrong?
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46258180


No. But that potential region...
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 10:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Strong M-flare may be from newly-numbered AR1865 on the SE Limb.

M 2.8 Flare from AR1865-

:10/8-SElimbMag:

 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


That is the best looking spot we have seen in awhile!
 Quoting: whiteangel


Yep, it does look to have unusual magnetic fields. If it's growing we may see an active week. This may be the region that produced the giant full-halo CME on the far-side a few days ago. My hunch is that we can count on at least another M-flare or two.

hidinghidinghidinghidinghidinghidinghiding
shadasonic

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10/08/2013 10:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


No wonder my skin and hair are crawling, Hi agent 66!rockon
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 10:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


No wonder my skin and hair are crawling, Hi agent 66!rockon
 Quoting: shadasonic


Hey Shada ... finally some action ...
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 10:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


How come old Sol lulls us to sleep with inactivity and then suddenly we get hit the multiple unpredicted events. It's exciting but very unnerving at the same time.

I can't recall seeing the GOES magnetometer that messed up in such a short time. Look at the SOHO Density readings...spiked up to 122 p/ccm. Wild:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

SOHO SW Data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 10:24 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


How come old Sol lulls us to sleep with inactivity and then suddenly we get hit the multiple unpredicted events. It's exciting but very unnerving at the same time.

I can't recall seeing the GOES magnetometer that messed up in such a short time. Look at the SOHO Density readings...spiked up to 122 p/ccm. Wild:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

SOHO SW Data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Isn't Maryland shut down or something ??? Certainly looks like it.

What a disgrace
shadasonic

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10/08/2013 10:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Ready ......... NEVER LOL

Take a peak [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: TS66 46766538


How come old Sol lulls us to sleep with inactivity and then suddenly we get hit the multiple unpredicted events. It's exciting but very unnerving at the same time.

I can't recall seeing the GOES magnetometer that messed up in such a short time. Look at the SOHO Density readings...spiked up to 122 p/ccm. Wild:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]

SOHO SW Data:

[link to umtof.umd.edu]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


I was thinking the same thing, couldn't remember such a quick skitzing out. The mag was just as surprised as we were.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
joinca

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10/08/2013 10:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: whiteangel

Here are the exact frames:
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
cool2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Isis One

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10/08/2013 11:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Wooowhoooooooooo M FLARE!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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10/08/2013 11:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


Fast business
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Goofy for God


It looks like the magnetosphere was caught offguard, too. Look at the graphs!

GOES Electron Flux:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

GOES Magnetometer:

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Strong Density readings at ACE (2-Hour plot):

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

REal-time Bowshock Model:

[link to pixie.spasci.com]

Solar Wind-Mag-Field model:

[link to ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov]
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


OMG, here we go again, I just recovered from the last Proton assault, jeeeezzzz
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me
Isis One

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10/08/2013 11:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


That's the one I tried to catch an image of last night!!! Good job Det!
Spread the word, change the collective conscious......
THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

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