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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 07:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
:cme1008:

:2cme1008:

[link to helio.gmu.edu]
 Quoting: Dettro


So Dettro are you saying thats a new one and not the one that is hitting tomorrow?
 Quoting: WatcherJ


This CME , that i just posted happened about 12 hours ago

before this last one that just happen.

I'm still going to through the last few pages of this page

Sorry if i confused anyone.

cheers
 Quoting: Dettro


Thanks, Dettro, that was from the huge prominence eruption earlier today. (not Earth-directed). Got this link from spaceweather.com to an SDO 304 gif movie of the liftoff....very impressive.

[link to www.spaceweather.com]

The CME that's hitting now had precious-few images to find. Sol likes to erupt just as the coronagraphs go on hiatus....it's just one of the things which are driving me crazy, LOL.

Just for the Department of Redundancy Department, here's the NASA CME prognostication-
Event Issue Date: 2013-10-06 17:28:36.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2013-10-09 18:42:27.0 GMT

Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 29 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.8 Re
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
madajs.

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10/08/2013 07:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning: "That path leads ever down into stagnation."
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

User ID: 41520215
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10/08/2013 07:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


I like sneaky G2 storms.lol
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
joinca

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10/08/2013 07:22 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 07:36 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Space Weather Message Code: WARK06
Serial Number: 233
Issue Time: 2013 Oct 08 2258 UTC

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2013 Oct 08 2257 UTC
Valid To: 2013 Oct 09 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
 Quoting: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Potential G2 action, neato popcorn
 Quoting: madajs.


I like sneaky G2 storms.lol
 Quoting: shadasonic


Me too.

popcornpump2
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Hugh M Eye

User ID: 47869419
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10/08/2013 07:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

User ID: 41520215
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10/08/2013 07:51 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Very Nice!
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
joinca

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10/08/2013 08:01 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Was this the one?
CME0029 - 08-Oct-2013 20:54 peaks at 2000 Km/s
[link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Movie is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
JPG is here: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
CMEs detected by Cactus: [link to www.sidc.oma.be]
Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index: [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: joinca


Howdy, Joinca hi the incoming plasma is from a mid-disk filament eruption on the 6th. STEREO missed it and so did the CACTus computers. I said at the time that this was 'well-aimed at Earth' but I had no way of even guessing the strength or velocity without all of the images. Evidently well-aimed CMEs tend to get here quicker and escape detection by CACTus. You can see a halo CME in this CACTus movie, but CACTus recorded no halo CMEs on that date.

[link to www.sidc.oma.be]

This is why vigilant Solar-Watchers are even better than the space agencies supercomputers like CACTus, Solarsoft. Thanks to GONG and SDO we can see events develop from their initial eruptions.

Well-Aimed at Earth-
sun-earth-cme
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye

Thanks Hugh. As always the sun crew rocks!!!
applause2
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Official SunTard"

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10/08/2013 08:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hopefully it doesn't reach G5 since my cloud cover here.
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 08:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Before this unexpected storm hit I was preparing to alert the reader to the fabulous configuration of Venus and the crescent Moon (...and also Mercury and Saturn if you have a good vantage of the western horizon). It was absolutely breathtaking last night and now again this evening in twilight. I had the added bonus of working a graveyard shift last night/this morning and so I also got to see Jupiter and Mars in the east at 5AM! With good eyesight (or binos) , clear skies, and a freedom-from-light-pollution, you can see the beautiful crescent Moon and all five inner planets (six if you look down at your feet!). I dare the government to shut that down, haha.

[link to www.skyandtelescope.com]

Special Note to GeoStorm- check out the triple-transit shadows of Jupiter's Moons on the 11th...might be a nice photo-op.:)
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
sounds

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10/08/2013 08:20 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Hi Sol crew, I have neglected my suntard duties in the past weeks not though wanting,
it seems my road less travelled has become an express way of events.

Love & light all.

Sunspot AR 1857 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
Sunspots 1161 & unnumbered new spots 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
Unnumbered new sunspots 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]
The Sun 09 10 2013
[link to i1245.photobucket.com]

peace
Political correctness without wisdom ,is just Political nonsense.
joinca

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10/08/2013 08:39 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In the estimated Kp7+ range???????
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
hiding
"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson
shadasonic
viracocha says live well

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
In the estimated Kp7+ range???????
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
hiding
 Quoting: joinca


Wasn't expecting that
It is understanding that transforms us, not merely the desire for change, and until a man obtains a thorough understanding of the nature of evil and so becomes equipped to respond wisely to its challenges, he will necessarily be detrimentally affected by it.
El Quisqueyano
Chief Caonabo

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10/08/2013 09:33 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We got a climber!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to skreened.com]

The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who in the name of charity and good will shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers! And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee!" Ezekiel 25:17

"Worst come to worst, my PEOPLES come first" Dilated Peoples
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C5.2
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C6.2 and rising?
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
C8.3
OVRANALYZE

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10/08/2013 09:41 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
m 1.0
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Reached M..
M1.0

Still rising.
Hugh M Eye

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10/08/2013 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NOAA seems perplexed about this CME, too. They seem to indicate as I suggested that some event went unnoticed and they seem to hold out expectations of the filament CME hitting us tomorrow night. Confusion reigns.

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 1861 (S13E50, Bxo/beta) produced a
B-class flare. New Regions 1863 (S18E19, Bxo/beta), 1864 (S23E62,
Hsx/alpha), and 1865 (S20E70, Cao/beta) were numbered.
A large
prominence erupted from the northeast limb at around 08/0030 UTC
associated with a non-Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected during the period.

Solar Wind .Forecast...
CME effects are expected to persist during the first half of Oct. 9,
then gradually subside. Analysis is inconclusive as to whether the
current effects are from the CME associated with the filament eruption
on Oct. 6 or a different, undetected CME.
If they are separate events,
effects from the current CME should persist through the first part of
Oct 9 then begin to wane through midday. The CME from the filament
eruption on Oct. 6 is then expected to arrive late on Oct. 9, again
increasing wind speed and IMF Bt.
CME effects are expected to persist
through midday on Oct. 10, then gradually subside. Wind speed is
expected to increase on Oct. 11 due to the onset of a coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS).
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Current ACE data shows that solar plasma density reached near 60p/cu.cm.-

2013 10 08 2051 56573 75060 0 34.2 421.4 2.34e+05
2013 10 08 2052 56573 75120 1 34.7 445.9 2.48e+05
2013 10 08 2053 56573 75180 0 3.4 342.3 6.10e+04
2013 10 08 2054 56573 75240 1 23.3 434.5 2.71e+05
2013 10 08 2055 56573 75300 1 30.4 420.8 2.78e+05
2013 10 08 2056 56573 75360 0 33.0 440.6 2.30e+05
2013 10 08 2057 56573 75420 0 12.3 380.7 1.14e+05
2013 10 08 2058 56573 75480 1 26.3 387.3 1.87e+05
2013 10 08 2059 56573 75540 1 38.3 443.8 2.38e+05
2013 10 08 2100 56573 75600 0 38.3 461.3 1.80e+05
2013 10 08 2101 56573 75660 0 47.7 448.0 1.53e+05
2013 10 08 2102 56573 75720 0 58.6 427.6 1.48e+05
2013 10 08 2103 56573 75780 0 56.1 390.9 1.21e+05
2013 10 08 2104 56573 75840 0 10.4 364.7 7.41e+04
2013 10 08 2105 56573 75900 0 53.4 449.0 1.55e+05
2013 10 08 2106 56573 75960 0 56.0


[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
and now we have an M-Flare!!

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

siren2siren2siren2

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 10/08/2013 09:44 PM
"There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life."
Frank Zappa

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the the universe."-Albert Einstein
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:43 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.3
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
God...M1.6 and still rising..
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M1.9 and still rising..wth..
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
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10/08/2013 09:47 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Oh hello!
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:47 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
#Geomagnetic_Storm#
"Official SunTard"

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10/08/2013 09:48 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46258180


Which region? Lol
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
M2.5 time go down.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 46258180


Which region? Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Cur 09/0147 M2.8 Ratio 0.194
whiteangel

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10/08/2013 09:50 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Southeast
[link to lasp.colorado.edu]
"If voting made a difference they wouldn't let us do it" -Mark Twain
Anonymous Coward
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10/08/2013 09:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Now to wait for some earthquakes.
TS66
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10/08/2013 09:52 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1865 possibly 1864