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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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08/08/2011 01:46 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Why are they saying a third is coming? I thought the third cme hit Saturday? but they are saying sometime this week. Would this be the m9 flare or are they all wrong? Tell me
 Quoting: cableguy30


nothing is coming our way
take a peek at the last 2 pages on this thread
all 3 of the cme's we were expecting have already came and left by early saturday Aug 6th

all the articles are saying NOAA is giving out the warning
WELL THEY DID, LAST WEEK!
here we all see, NO CURRENT WARNINGS on NOAA

(not yelling at you, just bolding and caping so everyone visiting this thread can see)

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Aug 07 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low level C-flares were
observed from Regions 1263 (N17W55) and 1267 (S17W00). Region 1263
exhibited motion and growth within its central and trailing spots;
merging of trailing spots with the central spots produced an
additional delta configuration in the group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. M-flares are likely and there is a slight chance
for an X-flare and/or proton event with Region 1263 as the most
likely source.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed
increased to 600 km/s at the beginning of the period and has been
slowly decreasing since approximately 06/2218Z. The solar sector
(phi angle) remained generally positive suggesting the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. The period ended with solar wind
speed around 500 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 August as the effects of the
high speed stream weaken. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
09-10 August.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs):
August 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO imagery
[link to www.solen.info]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/08/2011 01:46 PM
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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Gabriel

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08/08/2011 01:49 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and if nobody buys the solor flare excuse there is always this lie:

Thread: BREAKING!!! IRAN IS PLANNING TO ATTACK U.S. POWER GRID & SAYS " AMERICA WILL BE TAUGHT MOTHER OF ALL LESSEONS "
TheBonne

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08/08/2011 01:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Good defence of Commerce and NOAA, NiNres.
The United States is a nation of laws: badly written and randomly enforced.-Frank Zappa

Sister Sis"ter, v. t.
To be sister to; to resemble closely. [Obs.] --Shak.

Make mine Mint: h33t.com search linux mint
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 01:52 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
NiN..I just noticed this:
Aug 8 1331UTC alert
Electron 2MeV
Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu

I googled this and found out it's a form of radiation.
radiation hazard for astronauts...passengers and crew in high flying aircraft...navagation position errors...

Also the high speed stream has really picked up.

Any thoughts?
 Quoting: old guard


this is from the expected Coronal Hole Wind Stream flowing from coronal hole (CH) CH469 that was earth facing on Aug 4-5. We were expecting to see the winds from this Coronal Hole starting around Aug 7-8
"IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind speed
increased to 600 km/s at the beginning of the period and has been
slowly decreasing since approximately 06/2218Z. The solar sector
(phi angle) remained generally positive suggesting the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream
. The period ended with solar wind
speed around 500 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 08 August as the effects of the
high speed stream weaken. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 09-10 August.
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


"A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH469) was Earth facing position on August 4-5, CH469 decayed significantly on August 5-6"
[link to www.solen.info]

as for the radiation... hmmmmmmm

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/08/2011 02:06 PM
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Why are they saying a third is coming? I thought the third cme hit Saturday? but they are saying sometime this week. Would this be the m9 flare or are they all wrong? Tell me
 Quoting: cableguy30


I don't think there is any possible way the third one didn't hit us. That thing was traveling way too fast to be lollygagging around until this week.

Personally, I call bullshit on them saying it hasn't happened yet. But, I am no expert. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Unless a CME was released we don't know about.
 Quoting: fantabulistic


here is the video of last CME we had
you can see on this video the speed and force of this CME

[link to www.youtube.com]

here is spaceweather talking about this on Aug 4th
here is quote on there for that day
"Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours:"
[link to spaceweather.com]

here is spaceweather for the 5th
"A major geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a CME on August 5th around 1800 UT."
"The arriving CME left the sun on August 4th, propelled by an M9.3-category eruption in the magnetic canopy of sunspot 1261"
[link to spaceweather.com]

and here is spaceweather for the 6th
clearly reporting the cme's had all passed
"SUBSIDING STORM: Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on August 5th that sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Registering 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of magnetic disturbances, the storm at maximum sparked auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states"
[link to spaceweather.com]

NO obvious earth directed CME have been produced by the sun after the big one of Aug 4th

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/08/2011 02:03 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:04 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
my skys are super bright pink here in michigan tonight
almost like a hot summer day sunset out
and its 2am here
anyone else have odd skys tonight?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


It`s the reflection off your hair dear..he he he..ohyeah

Morning Nin, and all GLP folks
 Quoting: <<LOOK`n thru YOU>>


1rof1
could have been
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:07 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I had a dream last night or I guess this morning
about the next place that will get it.. an earthquake
its the 2 boots..thats what I was shown they looked like boots
Italy and new zeland
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1498142


hiding
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how s the sun at the moment???

pls
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis11


spiking right now!
M and going for an X!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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Gabriel

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08/08/2011 02:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how s the sun at the moment???

pls
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis11


spiking right now!
M and going for an X!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Crap... out of nowhere... whats the specs on it Nin?
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Whoa Nellie!
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how s the sun at the moment???

pls
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis11


spiking right now!
M and going for an X!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Crap... out of nowhere... whats the specs on it Nin?
 Quoting: Gabriel


im 98% sure its coming from 1263
she has been holding out for the last 3 days
knew she was gona go, but was not sure if it would be after the rotation off the western edge
waiting for sites to update, then i will update on it
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
and she is still going
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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Gabriel

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08/08/2011 02:13 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
how s the sun at the moment???

pls
 Quoting: Cosmogenesis11


spiking right now!
M and going for an X!
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Crap... out of nowhere... whats the specs on it Nin?
 Quoting: Gabriel


im 98% sure its coming from 1263
she has been holding out for the last 3 days
knew she was gona go, but was not sure if it would be after the rotation off the western edge
waiting for sites to update, then i will update on it
 Quoting: NiNzrez


roger.... standing by.... over
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:14 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
my skys are super bright pink here in michigan tonight
almost like a hot summer day sunset out
and its 2am here
anyone else have odd skys tonight?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


where abouts in michigan are you located? I'm just NE of detroit.
 Quoting: ifSHTF


yeah im in Flint
prob same area as you
but i bet you live in a nicer sub of it hahaha
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Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:16 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
dropping at a peek of M3.5

lets see if a CME was produced with this one

would be a bit ERIE if there is, considering all the articles going on about the coming bad cme that could take out grind... that were expecting in the next few days...
hiding
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/08/2011 02:19 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Cool! Thanks for the explanation. I see it is already fading somewhat.
Gabriel

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08/08/2011 02:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:23 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
 Quoting: Gabriel


that flare absorption saturated the entire north and south American continents
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
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Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:32 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
 Quoting: Gabriel


that flare absorption saturated the entire north and south American continents
 Quoting: NiNzrez


WOW that is beautiful.
Gabriel

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08/08/2011 02:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Look at this! Wow! That wasn't there earlier.

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

can someone explain this graph.
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1029592


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
 Quoting: Gabriel


that flare absorption saturated the entire north and south American continents
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and yet the seismographs are quiet.... why do i feel like i'm missing something.
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
 Quoting: Gabriel


that flare absorption saturated the entire north and south American continents
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and yet the seismographs are quiet.... why do i feel like i'm missing something.
 Quoting: Gabriel


Strange isn't it. NiNzrez, thanks for the updates. Hope it doesn't keep going like last weeks flairs did.
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 02:50 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
...


that is the flare absorbtion from the M3 flare that just happened
it reaches earth at the speed of light
around 8 min from time of the flare occurance on the sun

i wonder if the quakes are going to hold up with this new absorbtion
Gabe, where is the risk areas right now?
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Mexico down to Chile
 Quoting: Gabriel


that flare absorption saturated the entire north and south American continents
 Quoting: NiNzrez


and yet the seismographs are quiet.... why do i feel like i'm missing something.
 Quoting: Gabriel


Sadly, I feel like Cali is going to get it. The big one.
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:55 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
ok, this one is not as easy as most
we have a few active regions
i see a large filament off the northern side jump frpm left to right and some plasma movement around 1263
i will brb still checking
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NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 02:56 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
1263
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
but that still needs to update a bit to say 100%

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 08/08/2011 03:01 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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MRMACME
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08/08/2011 03:09 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
look at the electrons one hour before the flare [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
also a significant fluctuation in cosmic rays [link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]
Anonymous Coward
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08/08/2011 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Photos of Auroras near my home in Alberta Canada, Saturday Morning:

[link to www.calgaryherald.com]
boceph
Deep East Tejas

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08/08/2011 03:17 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
look at the electrons one hour before the flare [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

also a significant fluctuation in cosmic rays [link to helios.izmiran.rssi.ru]
 Quoting: MRMACME 1495285




what does that mean?
NiNzrez (OP)

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08/08/2011 03:19 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
looks like there was a small cme
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