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SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)

 
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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01/07/2014 03:11 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hey Geo, can you post that screenshot from Elemental ??
 Quoting: TS66


I'll try. Lol
Geoshill


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Anonymous Coward
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01/07/2014 03:11 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
some initial rise in protón flux? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


hiding
falco-herent

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01/07/2014 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Elemental just told me using the CME tracking tool in another group it was estimated to be : 2979km/s

I'm hoping she can add a screenshot, as I can't sad
 Quoting: TS66


What? Thats waaaaay fast. I hope we don't see anything else of size anytime soon.

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 01/07/2014 03:13 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hey Geo, can you post that screenshot from Elemental ??
 Quoting: TS66


I'll try. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Your the best hf
TS66
#Geomagnetic_Storm#

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01/07/2014 03:13 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hey Geo, can you post that screenshot from Elemental ??
 Quoting: TS66


I'll try. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Your the best hf
 Quoting: TS66


Here it is....


[link to s728.photobucket.com]
Geoshill


Link to my Gaming Channel….
[link to m.youtube.com (secure)]
falco-herent

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01/07/2014 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At 2900 km/s that puts it here within 28 hours
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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01/07/2014 03:15 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
some initial rise in protón flux? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


And this from ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
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01/07/2014 03:18 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At 2900 km/s that puts it here within 28 hours
 Quoting: falco-herent


siren2siren2siren2 2979Km/s siren2siren2siren2
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
some initial rise in protón flux? [link to www.n3kl.org]
 Quoting: Luisport


And this from ACE
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 28239113


Space Weather is trying to keep up.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 412
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2008 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 411
Valid From: 2014 Jan 06 0837 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2014 Jan 08 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
TS66
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:19 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Hey Geo, can you post that screenshot from Elemental ??
 Quoting: TS66


I'll try. Lol
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Your the best hf
 Quoting: TS66


Here it is....


[link to s728.photobucket.com]
 Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#


Thank you Geo smile_kiss
TS66
falco-herent

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01/07/2014 03:28 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At lets say an avg. 2,500 km/s = 1,550m/s

Thats 93,000 miles a minute

5,580,000 miles an hour

the sun at 93,000,000 miles away, gives us about 17 hours, alot sooner than 28,wow!
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At lets say an avg. 2,500 km/s = 1,550m/s

Thats 93,000 miles a minute

5,580,000 miles an hour

the sun at 93,000,000 miles away, gives us about 17 hours, alot sooner than 28,wow!
 Quoting: falco-herent


We shall see !! Can't wait to the est density on this guy...
TS66
mtn_mang

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01/07/2014 03:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
cool2
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
cool2
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Have you been dancing out there in the cold mang ???
TS66
falco-herent

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01/07/2014 03:31 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At lets say an avg. 2,500 km/s = 1,550m/s

Thats 93,000 miles a minute

5,580,000 miles an hour

the sun at 93,000,000 miles away, gives us about 17 hours, alot sooner than 28,wow!
 Quoting: falco-herent


We shall see !! Can't wait to the est density on this guy...
 Quoting: TS66


I know the density will tell us alot!

Nice to have you here!

[link to www.lmsal.com]

solarsoft is giving 44 the credit

Last Edited by Thinking out loud on 01/07/2014 03:31 PM
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Anonymous Coward
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01/07/2014 03:33 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
nice vídeo here: [link to www.spaceweatherlive.com]
mtn_mang

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01/07/2014 03:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
cool2
 Quoting: mtn_mang


Have you been dancing out there in the cold mang ???
 Quoting: TS66


lol, no dancing just hanging about. its a blistering 10 degrees outside here. did have a weird feeling a while ago :)
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:34 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At lets say an avg. 2,500 km/s = 1,550m/s

Thats 93,000 miles a minute

5,580,000 miles an hour

the sun at 93,000,000 miles away, gives us about 17 hours, alot sooner than 28,wow!
 Quoting: falco-herent


We shall see !! Can't wait to the est density on this guy...
 Quoting: TS66


I know the density will tell us alot!

Nice to have you here!

[link to www.lmsal.com]

solarsoft is giving 44 the credit
 Quoting: falco-herent


I'm glad to be here again.

Doesn't this seem odd ???

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 208
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 1818 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Never updated after 18:18 ?? What are they doing ???

BTW got a hold of Nin. She ok just very cold at -35 wind chills. Hopefully she can get back here quick wink

Last Edited by TS66 on 01/07/2014 03:37 PM
TS66
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:35 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Luisport


Very nice Luisport.
TS66
falco-herent

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01/07/2014 03:39 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
At lets say an avg. 2,500 km/s = 1,550m/s

Thats 93,000 miles a minute

5,580,000 miles an hour

the sun at 93,000,000 miles away, gives us about 17 hours, alot sooner than 28,wow!
 Quoting: falco-herent


We shall see !! Can't wait to the est density on this guy...
 Quoting: TS66


I know the density will tell us alot!

Nice to have you here!

[link to www.lmsal.com]

solarsoft is giving 44 the credit
 Quoting: falco-herent


I'm glad to be here again.

Doesn't this seem odd ???

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 208
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 1818 UTC

ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jan 07 1817 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see [link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]

Never updated after 18:18 ?? What are they doing ???

BTW got a hold of Nin. She ok just very cold at -35 wind chills. Hopefully she can get back here quick wink
 Quoting: TS66


I've seen that before and couldn't understand the implications from a warning like that.

Good to hear Nins ok, haven't talked to her in awhile. I knew she checked in the other day.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
Hugh M Eye

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01/07/2014 03:40 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
LESS THAN 36h??? I don't remembre a velocity like this before!!!
 Quoting: Luisport


Neither do I, but does it mean anything other than it's fast? Will the impact be any different due to the speed?
 Quoting: Wash


Yes. Speed, Particle Density, and polarity all determine the severity of the impact. Anything near 2000 km/s or greater is bound to pack a strong punch to our magnetosphere. If I recall, the March 2012 CME was 1250 km/s and that was a humdinger. The ACE Satellite shut down and all the models went haywire, LOL.
mpause1
mag2015
wind2015

Last Edited by Hugh M Eye on 01/07/2014 03:41 PM
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01/07/2014 03:44 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
This is what I received from FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC

":Issued: 2014 Jan 07 1858 UTC
:Product: documentation at [link to www.sidc.be]
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#------------------------------------------------------------​--------#
A shock in the solar wind data was observed around 14:20 UTC. Solar wind speed, density and temperature show an abrupt increase, as well as the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field has achieved a maximum value of 9 nT. The Bz-component is fluctuating between -8 and +4 nT. The shock is probably related to the arrival of a CME of January 4. The estimated NOAA Kp reached values of 3, but is expected to increase to Kp=5 in the next few hours.

An X1.3 flare erupted from the western part of NOAA AR 1944, peaking at 18:30 UTC. A new proton event might be possible due to this flaring activity. Further analysis will be needed to identify whether other activity is related to this flare."
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:45 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
They must be listening ... shhhh wink

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 96
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2022 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1804 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 07 1832 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 07 1858 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.2
Optical Class: 2n
Location: S14W12
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Comment: Optical Class and Location are preliminary.
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

Everyone say hello hi
TS66
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Told you they were holding back ... smh

Space Weather Message Code: SUM10R
Serial Number: 604
Issue Time: 2014 Jan 07 2031 UTC

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Jan 07 1806 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Jan 07 1813 UTC
End Time: 2014 Jan 07 1856 UTC
Duration: 50 minutes
Peak Flux: 8300 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 204 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
TS66
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01/07/2014 03:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
We have to add that earth is passing again through Current Sheet that is why the the electron flux increased.
[link to www.lmsal.com]
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
Hugh M Eye

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01/07/2014 03:53 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here's the NASA Cone model. Looks like Venus will get hit just ahead of Earth. Venus has no active magnetosphere.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

shockedsfanviolingaspscream
whiteangel
also known at WA

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01/07/2014 03:54 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So, it could be here in 18-26 hours. It wasn't a huge CME so no Carrington. Whew.

We haven't been getting the boost to the electromagnetic fields like it should be because the sun have been really scared off by humans. Doesn't that mean that whatever does hit us, will hit us harder than normal because our "shields" are weaker??
Isaiah 5:20 KJV
Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!
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TS66

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01/07/2014 03:56 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here's the NASA Cone model. Looks like Venus will get hit just ahead of Earth. Venus has no active magnetosphere.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

shockedsfanviolingaspscream
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


Pretty quick analysis this time around wouldn't you say ... looks like density is just around 30 ???

The optical gets a little confusing right at impact ... lol
TS66
TS66

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01/07/2014 03:57 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
So, it could be here in 18-26 hours. It wasn't a huge CME so no Carrington. Whew.

We haven't been getting the boost to the electromagnetic fields like it should be because the sun have been really scared off by humans. Doesn't that mean that whatever does hit us, will hit us harder than normal because our "shields" are weaker??
 Quoting: whiteangel


I'm thinking it's going to pick up that snail of an M 7.2 and bring it along.
TS66
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01/07/2014 03:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * Huge X8.2 Flare Sept. 10, 2017! (Updated Daily)
Here's the NASA Cone model. Looks like Venus will get hit just ahead of Earth. Venus has no active magnetosphere.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

shockedsfanviolingaspscream
 Quoting: Hugh M Eye


bumpbumpbump





GLP