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SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

 
Queen
User ID: 1289181
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03/09/2011 11:53 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
We have had 14 M flares in the last 3 days
(scroll down on link for list)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

7 M Flares on 3/7/2011
5 M Flares on 3/8/2011
at least 2 Flares on 3/9/11 - and counting

the M flares for today, March 9th have not been updated on the SolorSoft site, but you can see them on the 3 day GOES Xray flux below

1 minute X ray flux
[link to www.lmsal.com]
5 minute X ray flux
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]


Total M flares for March 7th - March 9th = 14

AND COUNTING!

with possibilities for an X flare from 3 sunspots


Geomagnetic storm is expected to arrive tonight and last for at least 2 days

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March). The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of days one and two (09-10 March).

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
 Quoting: NiNzrez


Dear Friend,

Thanks for being the one keeping track of all of the recent Solar Flaring! Something is DEFINITELY in the works!

Queen
Deejay

User ID: 1288927
South Africa
03/09/2011 11:57 AM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I can tell you guys that the Sun back here in South Africa has been hot as hell.

Temperatures of around 35 degrees celcius (pretty normal for this time of the year). After being in the sun for 10 to 20
mintes and then going back inside there's tingling sensation on my arms. Also a lot of uncharacteristic yawning in the middle of the day.No I don't have a hangover and I had enough sleep.

I spend a lot of time on the road every day, and this extra kick from the sun is not normal.

It's like the sun had a red bull or something.
Know Thyself.
OpenEnded

User ID: 1289289
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03/09/2011 12:00 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm watching this for any signs of shuttle holes..

[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1216961
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03/09/2011 12:30 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
too many
OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 12:41 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
this one is interesting today.

[link to iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080]

on the S90 it looks like the spray direction reversed like a sprinkler..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
United States
03/09/2011 12:43 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
sunspot 1166 is directly earth facing today and poses a 70% chance of M class flares and a 10% chance of X
[link to www.swpc.noaa.gov]
[link to www.solen.info]


we also need to watch newly named sunspot 1169
[link to www.solarmonitor.org]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/09/2011 12:47 PM
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[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 12:51 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so are we going to get a CME glancing blow today or not? Now I don't know if any of those were coming our way
sigh
or not..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
United States
03/09/2011 01:02 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so are we going to get a CME glancing blow today or not? Now I don't know if any of those were coming our way
sigh
or not..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


yes
at least 1 today and about 2 tomorrow

We just have to see what this Geomagnetic storm brings
Some storms for X events are weak, like this last one we saw
and some from C events are quite big
Just depends on what particles the CME brings with is and how much speed it has lost since leaving the sun

This one was VERY fast when it left the sun

FAST CORONAL MASS EJECTION: A coronal mass ejection (CME) exploded from the vicinity of sunspot 1164 during the late hours of March 7th. It leapt away from the sun traveling ~2200 km/s, making it the fastest CME since Sept. 2005. A movie of the cloud prepared by Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab shows a possibly substantial Earth-directed component.
[link to spaceweather.com]


March 7: A partial halo CME was observed following a long duration (LDE) event in region 11166. This CME could reach Earth on March 9/10, however, it will highly likely be overtaken by the very fast CME produced by the M3.7 LDE in region 11164 late in the day. This CME could reach Earth on March 9 and cause unsettled to major storm conditions. [link to www.solen.info]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/09/2011 01:07 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 01:05 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
so are we going to get a CME glancing blow today or not? Now I don't know if any of those were coming our way
sigh
or not..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


yes
at least 1 today and about 2 tomorrow
 Quoting: NiNzrez


banana2

eq alone
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1284583
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03/09/2011 01:07 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Stunning!

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1284583
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03/09/2011 01:10 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
WTF????

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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03/09/2011 01:12 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1284583


hahaha looks scary
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 01:16 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1284583


1166 looks all wound up, and talkin to her lil sis 1169 too.. where is the link to this view in realtime?..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
Anonymous Coward
User ID: 1284583
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03/09/2011 01:20 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1284583


1166 looks all wound up, and talkin to her lil sis 1169 too.. where is the link to this view in realtime?..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


Movies - [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Pics [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
Site [link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 01:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
 Quoting: Anonymous Coward 1284583


1166 looks all wound up, and talkin to her lil sis 1169 too.. where is the link to this view in realtime?..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

click on "Data" tab, then "That Sun Now" to see only the most recent image

if you put in the date you want to search, then the type of image (red is the most popular one), then click to see Images and not Movie, then size..
you will then get a list of all that daty images
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 01:29 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks.. I've been wondering where you guys get those pretty pics so fast..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 01:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
[link to www.lmsal.com]

be sure to check out the Coronal Aurora movie
way cool
[link to www.lmsal.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 01:30 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
thanks.. I've been wondering where you guys get those pretty pics so fast..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


Welcome
Now you can get them fast with us :)
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 01:48 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
magnetism showing some activity..

[link to solarcycle24.com]
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 01:58 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
magnetism showing some activity..

[link to solarcycle24.com]
 Quoting: OpenEnded


yup
the front of the cme is probably starting to reach ACE now
Solar Alerts Blog
[link to mysolaralerts.blogspot.com]

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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2011 02:02 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just want to say thanks for this thread.hf
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 02:09 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I just want to say thanks for this thread.hf
 Quoting: finley


your welcome :)

hf
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?
OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 02:12 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going out for beer and cigs, better do it now before the big show..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 02:21 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
I'm going out for beer and cigs, better do it now before the big show..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


haha good idea
pick me up some while your out ;)
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 02:42 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
After further analysis from yesterday, there was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at 07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed.

The M3 event at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in progress.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March). The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z.

[link to solarcycle24.com]

That's the one :)

Last Edited by OpenEnded on 03/09/2011 02:48 PM
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
NiNzrez (OP)

User ID: 1135433
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03/09/2011 04:08 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
start watching at 09:00 in AIA 401 Red
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

slow it way down

you can see a filiment connecting between 1166 and 1169
and also see how active 1166 is starting to look
Solar Alerts Blog
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
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NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 04:18 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
zoom in on 1166 to see it
(top middle)

[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

you can also see the connection here
[link to sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov]

Last Edited by NiNzrez on 03/09/2011 04:21 PM
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Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

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OpenEnded

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03/09/2011 04:58 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
now the Bz is movin..
There's hope or not isn't the question, there is only the road
Anonymous Coward
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03/09/2011 05:04 PM
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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
now the Bz is movin..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


What does the Bz tell us? Thanks
NiNzrez (OP)

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03/09/2011 05:05 PM

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Re: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
'
now the Bz is movin..
 Quoting: OpenEnded


thanks for the heads up
i got sidetracked somewhere else hehe

the speed is picking up a little as well
I'm very curious what this one will bring with it considering the speed it has when leaving the sun
"It leapt away from the sun traveling ~2200 km/s, making it the fastest CME since Sept. 2005"
[link to spaceweather.com]
Solar Alerts Blog
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Join Me On The GLP SOLAR WATCH Thread
Thread: SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)
Thread: Magnetic Field Deficiency Syndrome- MAKING US SICK **MUST READ***

How long will you simple ones love your simple ways?
How long will mockers delight in mockery and fools hate knowledge?